Aidymac Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Forward Feline running in the 3:00 Chepstow tomorrow... It runs off 59 tomorrow, 9 pounds lower than its last run and runs off its lowest mark ever tomorrow!! Now you wouldnt mind if it had never won a race but this horse won 2 races of its last 4 runs, off marks of 65 and 63.... Cant get my head round why it has such a leniant mark tomorrow, can someone enlighten me please? Probert 4th best jockey at the track and Palling 2nd best trainer at the track also... 16/1 looks very big if all this is true and if i do have the handicap correct??? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? think she is just a much better animal on the all weather? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? think she is just a much better animal on the all weather? Yip, quite possibly!! But lowest mark of its career??? Its not like it is its first run on turf! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? I see what your saying. It's run at Chepstow 2 outings ago was pretty uninspiring though. She does seem to go off at big prices every time she runs. She finished 3rd at Wolves and was then sent off at 20/1 next time out and won. I would just put the price down to her being a much better animal on the all weather but saying that she hasn't had many recent runs on turf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? I see what your saying. It's run at Chepstow 2 outings ago was pretty uninspiring though. She does seem to go off at big prices every time she runs. She finished 3rd at Wolves and was then sent off at 20/1 next time out and won. I would just put the price down to her being a much better animal on the all weather but saying that she hasn't had many recent runs on turf. Hmmm.. Well it has been placed on turf 5 times from 14 runs, which is a 35% place strike-rate... Lowest mark it has ever run on turf up until now has been 63, and was 6th of 16 at Chepstow in a big field off a mark of 70 in 2009, now 11 pounds lower than that run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Last run at Chepstow (24th May) he was effectively running off 60 taking into account the jockeys claim and was beaten by 21 lengths...that would put me off. Interesting that Probert is back on board for tomorrow though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Last run at Chepstow (24th May) he was effectively running off 60 taking into account the jockeys claim and was beaten by 21 lengths...that would put me off. Interesting that Probert is back on board for tomorrow though Probert 4th best jockey at the track and the trainer 2nd best at the track, that made me have a bet on it.... Would be gutted if it won and had not backed it, a place is all im looking for.. Thanks CPO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? No worries, hope it wins for ya! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Forward Feline running in the 3:00 Chepstow tomorrow... It runs off 59 tomorrow, 9 pounds lower than its last run and runs off its lowest mark ever tomorrow!! Now you wouldnt mind if it had never won a race but this horse won 2 races of its last 4 runs, off marks of 65 and 63.... Cant get my head round why it has such a leniant mark tomorrow, can someone enlighten me please? Probert 4th best jockey at the track and Palling 2nd best trainer at the track also... 16/1 looks very big if all this is true and if i do have the handicap correct??? Cheers Think CPO has hit on the fact that some horse have 2 marks one for turf and one for AW. He last run at Wolves off his AW mark of 68 (his AW mark is now 67) His last turf runs was off 63 so only dropped 4lb which is quite normal for animal in this class and finishing a long way detached. So handicap not quite as lenient as you think. Hope Ive got that explained right if you click on a horse on RP card it will give you its current AW mark aswell as its current turf mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Think chris has the nail on the head.........if you look at it's last 3 turf runs it's been beaten 19L, 12L and 21L off marks of 67, 63, 63 It's been beaten more than 5L in every turf handicap it's ever run in I quite like these differential marks for turf and AW as it can be a good source of winners - but I like horses who have improved in a spell on one surface returning to the other surface off a lower mark I don't think there's any evidence that this horse has improved on the all weather - his 3 wins over 2 years have come off marks between 62 and 65, not really a sign that he's improving, more that he can win off marks in the low 60s over the track/trip that suits him best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Agreed. If a horse rattles up wins on the all-weather but isn't really tried on the turf, or has at least shown some form on it, then it's a great way of exploiting a lower turf mark. However, even if a horse is performing at say 67 on the all-weather, but has shown very little on the turf, then even returning to that surface of 59 doesn't appeal too much. The only reason I might be swayed is if the horse seems to be improving on past all-weather form (ie was winning off 60 in the last couple of years but struggling off higher, but suddenly has been winning off 70+). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Thanks for yer help guys... So now i know AW mark and Turf mark are completely different, learn something new every day! What a waste of a bet now looking back at it, might nick 3rd if a few break a leg! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Did you watch the race Aidy ? Just for a moment there.............:p The horse was in a little group of 4 on the stands rail with the rest of the field in the middle of the track. It looked the stands group had it and in fact the winner came from that group and just for a moment it looked like FF was going to run on and get placed, but he faded and a handful of horses from the centre group went past him............. Finished 7th, beaten 8 or 9 lengths I thought he ran well for quite a long way and he might pop up back at Wolves...............:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Re: Forward Feline- Am i seeing things wrong? Did you watch the race Aidy ? Just for a moment there.............:p The horse was in a little group of 4 on the stands rail with the rest of the field in the middle of the track. It looked the stands group had it and in fact the winner came from that group and just for a moment it looked like FF was going to run on and get placed, but he faded and a handful of horses from the centre group went past him............. Finished 7th, beaten 8 or 9 lengths I thought he ran well for quite a long way and he might pop up back at Wolves...............:clap Hi Trotter, i thought he was nailed for a place for a split second, he traded down as low as 6.6 and looked like it was going to run on but as you said it faded... Will be definately more interesting back on the AW and ran very well yesterday in a very competitive field.. One to watch out for i think, might get a good price too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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