Flat Racing 14th Aug

[chris34]

2.30 Pontefract A horrendous amount of pace in this race with several confirmed front runners and also plenty of prominent runners. I would fully expect this to be run at a very good pace and suit a hold up sort. Rain Mac is a very short priced favourite and in my opinion is well worth taking on. Having shown promise at york on handicap debut but then been off the track for nearly 2 months and possibly had problems having been a well held 8th in a competitive race, on breeding a step up in trip is a positive but would have needed to have shown a lot more last time out to be backed in this field. Lucky Windmill was an impressive winner round here over a mile last year in a maiden before going the wrong way in handicaps, dropped a long way in the weights and finally picked up a race at Hamilton again has to prove stamina for another furlong but that doesnt look a problem on last effort although that wasnt the strongest race and this looks more competitive off a 3lb higher mark and would ideally be suited with more cut in the ground than is likely. Trip The Light finally showed some promise last time out but again that wasnt the strongest race compared to this and the presence of plenty of other front/prominent runners is off putting here. Pass Muster was well backed last time out and dont think it was because I tipped him up last time lol! I wrote this last time out; Pass Muster might be worth taking on board at a big price, only 5 runs to date and still unexposed for all he disappointed last time out having bolted up at Beverley on penultimate start, that was off a mark of 81 disappointing next time out off a mark of 89 but handicapper quickly dropped him 2lb for that effort and has also changed yard so would be no surprise to see him bounce back back on fast ground today and with a couple of front runners in the field should ensure a true test and is clearly bred to be a stayer. Was badly hampered that day and wasnt given a hard race and therefore can be given another chance especially now having been dropped a further 1lb and also a useful apprentice takes off a further 3lb. Should get a race run to suit and if gets the gaps could have another chance at a big price. War Poet is another with a chance still potentially unexposed. He won at first try over this trip in handicap in May off a mark of 74 before running a decent race off a 8lb higher mark, was then hit with a further 4lb and was ultimately outclassed in the Old Newton Cup but handicapper giving him a chance reducing his mark 3lb and Tudhope takes back the ride and this looks a lot easier and will enjoy a strongly run race, The main one for me is Hong Kong Island who has improved for his new yard this season, he was only just mowed down late on behind Berling over CD who looks a very useful horse somehow gets to run off same mark which looks very lenient and useful apprentice takes off another 3lb today and he could still be improving ahead of the handicapper right now. Appears to go on fast ground aswell as some with some cut so no concerns there and course record is very impressive with 2 wins from 3 visits here. 1pt win War Poet 9/1 1pt win Pass Muster 25/1 vc 3pt win Hong Kong Island 5/1 hills

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Jade - Pontefract 4:00 Big chance tomorrow in my opinion. Course winner who was beat by a good looking type called Camberley Two trained by Charlton on his last outing. Interestingly Fallon has only ever rode this horse once and that was here at Pontefract and it won.. He is back on tomorrow and i think that could be significant. Runs off the same mark as last time out and has a big chance. 2 Points e/w @ 8/1 (>Boylesports) BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Chambers - Pontefract 5:00 Won off this mark last summer. Would have had a winning chance last time out when 4th to Royal Blade at Ayr only for being badly hampered and Silvestre De Sousa taked the ride tomorrow which can only be a positive. Has only run at this track once and was placed on that occasion and if it can run like it did last time out with a bit of luck in running has a chance. 2 Points e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365) BOG

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 16:00
Selection	Baptist
Strength	5/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 4.50
Reasoning	Loves the quick ground and the forecast for the race is Good to Firm. He won his debut last September at newbury (7f) by a head. Richard Hannon’s Chain Lightning was second that day and was making his third career start. He went on to win his next two race, a Maiden by 1 ½ length to Census and a Class 3 Handicap by 1 ¼ length to Dominant. The selection did not see Good to Firm until last time out and three races had gone by without a win or place with the ground being Soft, Good, and Good to Soft. Last time out was Good to Firm and he finished 3rd of 13 by 3 ½ lengths at Newmarket (1m). Ahead of him were Albaasil from Sir Michael Stoute and Dimension from James Fanshawe. Albaasil finished 2nd in a Class 2 Handicap to Rave two weeks later while Dimension finished 2nd in a Class 2 Handicap by a neck to Glimpse 19 days later. The selection is dropped in Class from 2 to 3 today and the ground is to be in his favor.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 14:30
Selection	Hong Kong Island
Strength	5/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Victor Chandler @ 6.00
Reasoning	Continued to run well since having his first run of the year in April. That was only for 15th of 20 but his form since then have 2 wins and 3 seconds from 7 starts. The last three had been in Class 3 Handicaps for a 4th of 14 by 1 lengths, 7th of 10 by 3 ¾ lengths, and 2nd of 5 by a neck. Third and second to last run was at Newmarket (1m4f) in July and that was very good considering it’s his only two career starts there. Last time out was at this course and his experience at Newmarket made him better at the course. He was a two from two at the track winning by 1 length (1m2f) and 3 ¼ lengths (1m4f). The latest was last time out where he failed to get the course hat trick but that form will do him plenty of good here. He was the 5-2 favorite and the 2-1 favorite was the one to pass him but not until the last 75 yards.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 15:00
Selection	Fire Fighter
Strength	5/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 6.00
Reasoning	Bidding for a hat trick. The Tiger Hill colt is a much better horse than what he was at 2yo last year. Finished unplaced in all three starts last year. Placed 2nd in first two runs this year and won the last two. Both placed efforts were at Hamilton over 1m3f and 1m4f behind Countrywide Flame and Getabuzz. The last two were at Folkestone over 1m4f and 1m7f. He’s versatile, placing on Good then winning on Good to Firm and Good to Soft. He was not a cheap purchase with the tag at 48,000gns and his useful dam’s other foals have been winners. His gears need fixing for late in the race as he idled late in the two wins but that only means he has room for improvement.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 15:30
Selection	Dever Dream
Strength	5/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 2.75
Reasoning	Finished 2nd in the last two but could go one better with a drop to a Listed race. The last two runs had been in Group 3 events. Penultimate run at York (6f) was 2nd to the De Sousa ridden Ladies Are Forever by a head. It was off to Goodwood (7f) last time out where she met Henry Cecil and Tom Queally’s Chachamaidee who was dropping from a 2nd in the Group 2 Windsor Forest Stakes at Ascot. The selection lost by 2 ¾ lengths but she did not have the best run when slightly hampered from 2f out. The drop back to 6f will suit her well. It’s where she had 5 of her 6 career wins including a Listed win at Newmarket last October. She won twice and place twice from four Listed races last year. Her group runs this year looks very good for adding another win to that tally.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 16:30
Selection	Toby Tyler
Strength	5/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 8.50
Reasoning	Won 3 of his last 6 starts – 15491. His last win was last time out at York (6f) where he took the lead the last 100 yard to win by 2 ½ lengths from Hotham. Hotham won by a neck in a stronger Handicap next time out. Nomoreblondes finished 3rd who going into the race had a win by 3 lengths to Pavershooz then a 2nd to Your Gifted. The selection have been strong to the finish all summer and should handle the extemely stiff climb the final two furlongs. He won his debut at the track in 2008 over the 5f trip.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 17:00
Selection	Toby Tyler
Strength	5/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 8.50
Reasoning	Won 3 of his last 6 starts – 15491. His last win was last time out at York (6f) where he took the lead the last 100 yard to win by 2 ½ lengths from Hotham. Hotham won by a neck in a stronger Handicap next time out. Nomoreblondes finished 3rd who going into the race had a win by 3 lengths to Pavershooz then a 2nd to Your Gifted. The selection have been strong to the finish all summer and should handle the extemely stiff climb the final two furlongs. He won his debut at the track in 2008 over the 5f trip.

[Petersson1984]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Gunner Rose 1PT WIN (2,10) @ BET365 14:45 Southwell The horse Gunner Rose are in the race at 14:45 at Southwell. The horse is now being ridden by jockey PJ Brennan. Today's race is a class 4 race for horses aged 4 +. 6 horses will start and Gunner Rose's favorite. The horse has not participated in any races, the last 20 days. One expects therefore that it comes with fully charged batteries and a decent pre favorite. Horse. Gunner Rose is an 8 year old gelding. It has, despite its age, had a short career. It made ​​its debut as a 4 year old and was disappointing in his first races. It has since paired with today's jockey and their partnership has proven to be beneficial for the horse. In its 11 races, just 1 was won and 1 place. The victory was with the P J Brennan as the jockey. Jockey. PJ Brennan has had a good season but the last few weeks have been quiet and with only 5 races. He has so far ridden 109 races this season, of which 21 were won while 38 ended with place. It provides a win rate of 19.27%. P J Brennan ride primarily long distance races. Last he participated in Southwell, he ran to victory.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug 3.30 pont :listed sprint dever dream 145 (recent 125) rose blossom 133 capercaille 128 rimth 125 on his best form dever dream could win this easily but the worry is his recent run suggested he went backwards and i wouldnt want to be taking 6/4 on a horse of that profile .rose blossom is the value horse in the race at 11/2 with skybet and i dont expect that to last long (9/2 generally ) .im very tempted to go e.w on rose blossom but i think capercaille has a fair shout of placing ,so if rimth is 4/1 then capercaille should be around the 8/1 mark is is available at 40/1 with bet 365 so im going 1 pt win rose blossom 11/2 skybet and 1pt e.w capercaille 40/1 bet365

[TGS]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Pontefract 2.30 1 pt win - Hong Kong Island - 6/1 (Ladbrokes) 1 pt win - Stagecoach Danman - 9/1 (WH) 1 pt ew - Granston - 22/1 (VC) I think Chris34 has got this pretty much spot on, but ill just add my little bit. Rainmac does look plenty short enough on what he's achived so far and am happy to take him on. Lucky Windmill is now a non runner, likely because the ground is riding to fast. Hong Kong Island is 2 wins from 3 runs at this track, handles fast ground no problem, ran well last time, 3lb claimer on board another help, could take all the beating. Another in this race i like is Stagecoach Danman. Bolted up here in a maiden 3 runs ago, and followed that up at doncaster next time when 3rd in a decent race. Forgiven latest run on ground/trip and should run well with SDS on board. Granston looks overpriced in my opinion. A very consistent performer this year, handles any ground and 12f looks to be his trip these days. Hasnt really performed that well at pontefract over the years but is worth at chance on his form this year, edging back down the handicap.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug 2.30 pont : this seems to revolve around 1 horse for me on the clock and thats trip the light 10/1 sporting bet .i was very impressed with his run against rastaban lto and he looked like a horse about to win soon based on that .no guarntees that rain mac will stay so 2/1 is just silly ,hong kong islands form isnt as strong as trip the lights so the 10/1 about that horse looks amazing value 2pts e.w trip the light 122 hong kong island 117 rain mac 115+

[TGS]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Pontefract 4.00 1 pt Win - Jade 6/1 (Sporting Bet) Unexposed at and improved for the step up to a mile last time at this track. Was behind the highly progressive Camberly Two. Runs off the same mark today. Kieran Fallon takes the ride which catches the eye. A few in this race have a bit to prove and should go close.

[TGS]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Pontefract 3.30 1 pt win - Rimth 4/1 (Boylesports) 0.5pt ew - Sioux Rising 50/1 (Boylesports) A chance in taken on Rimth to improve on her latest outing at goodwood. Back from a 75 day break there, ran a huge race from a bad draw. Ought to come on a good deal for that and the drop down to 6f no problem. She looks up to defying her 3lb penalty. Sioux Rising a C+D winner on good to firm ground (same as today) evidently loves the track (3 wins from 4 runs). Beat Desert Poppy (also in this race at 9/1) by a head, 3lb worse off here and Desert Poppy has improved since possible due to some ease in the ground however. Unlikely to win if Rimth and Dever Dream run well but could sneak into that 3rd spot.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 14:00
Selection	Larwood
Strength	2/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 8.50
Reasoning	Made debut in a Class 2 Maiden at Goodwood (6f) last time out. Has to have been showing good signs at home to be entered in that race. He finished only 10th of 12 by 9 lengths but did show up well. Tracked leaders on stands' side rail, ridden 2f out, weakened over 1f out – drop to 5f should help. It was an EBF Maiden with entries having entries from the big yards and expensive purchases. 8 of the 9 runners had previous experience with the only debutant ahead of him being the 280,000gns yearling Muarrab in 6th by 2 ¾ lengths. Trainer Henry Candy has 1 win from 2 runs with a 2yo here this year.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 14:00
Selection	Reve du Jour (Each-way)
Strength	1/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 23.00
Reasoning	Running well over 5f. Has raced four times with the 7f and 6f runs not being as good as she was beaten 11 ½ and 12 ½ lengths. Her 5f tries had been for 5th of 12 by 5 ¾ at Warwick and 2nd of 10 by 4 lengths at Potefract (5f). She ran here last time only finding Kevin Ryan’s Kylesku too good. She is entered for the DBS Premier Yearling Stakes in four days at York but this looks like a better opportunity. She was not cheap, E14,500 foal and rised to £55,000 as a yearling. She’s by Iffraaj and her dam a 6f winner at 2yo.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug 14:30 Pontefract WAR POET has impressed me from his debut and although a hot race today, he's a decent price and worth interest. Giving a fairly easy time of it in maidens but showing definitive promise. Immediately made a decent impression by winning well on handicap debut over this trip at Thirsk. Followed that up with a decent run at Doncaster when finishing 2nd. He was a bit unlucky in-running and probably should have got in front that day. Was raised 4lbs and was then well-fancied for the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Nothing went right for him though and it was such a competitive race that the effort is best left ignored I feel. Dropped 3lbs since, he's only 1lb higher than the Doncaster 2nd and 9lbs higher than when demolishing the field at Thirsk. Although up against some unexposed sorts such as Rain Mac, who could be a lot better than his rating, and other horses in good form such as Hong Kong Island, I think War Poet can make a big impact off this sort of mark as I rate him as having the potential to be rated in the 90's in the very near future. Stiff track won't be of any hindrance I don't think and the 8/1 looks too big, as I was expecting something along the lines of 5/1. WAR POET; 2pts Win @ 8/1 Boylesports (bog) 15:00 Pontefract NO TIME FOR TEARS is a drifter at a big price but don't for any moment see why she should be 25/1 in this well-contested staying race. Lightly raced 4yo who looks to have bags of stamina. Ran no sort of race when being quite well-supported on handicap debut in April, she showed that support wasn't all wrong when winning the final strides at Nottingham over 14f on fast ground. Although the form hasn't worked out too well, that trip looked the minimum she could operate effectively at. Was then an odd move to drop back to 12f and never really travelled. A negative being that she might not have handled this track that day but it was a better race than this one (even though fewer runners) and I'm sure that trip isn't right for her at all. She tackles 2m1f for the first time and although an unknown whether she'll stay, she shapes as if she will. Factoring in jockey claims she's only 3lbs higher than her Nottingham victory, and top apprentice Kieran O'Neill takes the ride on her once again (was on board when she won). A lot of runners here and far too many to talk about all of them, with Fire Fighter deservedly being favourite but No Time For Tears isn't badly weighted, will handle the ground and should relish a step up in trip. 25/1 is far too big although it's difficult to be too confident. Hopefully 4 places remain. NO TIME FOR TEARS; 1pt EW @ 25/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug 2.00 PONTE~MISS ELLA JADE~Is available of odds between 40/1- 100/1 with the bookies but i've had avery small place bet at 50/1 on BF. Complete wild one this but trainer can throw up big priced winners and placers and this horse is related to winners including over this distance. Poor draw but fairly small field.

[TGS]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Pontefract 5.00 1 pt win - Cornus 9/1 (WH) 1 pt ew - Powerful Pierre 20/1 (VC) Cornus is interesting back at Pontefract, after being touched off by Powerful Pierre 4 runs back. Runs off the same mark today. That was a class 5 race (same as today), has been contesting higher class races since. Ran well at Thirsk 2 runs ago in a class 4 event, finishing strongly when squeezed for room 1f out. Forgiven modest run last time at Brighton, hanging towards centre of the track. Likely to go well back at a venue he likes. Powerful Pierre, as already mentioned, touched off Cornus here 2 runs back, races off 2lb higher here. Been running consistently this year until last time when presumably something were amiss, possibly slower ground contributed to a poor display. Worth an each way bet if that run can be put behind him. 1 win from 1 at the track. 20/1 seems too big on that previous run.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Dundalk 15:35
Selection	So Stylish
Strength	1/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 11.00
Reasoning	First time trainer Aiden O'Brien has an entry for this race. The selection raced twice last year and once this year. He made a winning debut at Nava (5f) by 1 1/2 length to stablemate and J P Murtagh ridden Catherineofaragon. He was sent to the Marble Hill (Listed) at Curragh (5f) next time out and finished 3rd of 8 by 3 3/4 lengths to Samuel Morse and Purple Glow. High Award was a short head behind in 4th and he won the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom next time out. He was upped to 1m on his return in July. Finished last of 11 runners by 9 1/4 in the Platinum Stakes (Listed Race). He was off almost 14 months and he needed that run. One Cool Cat's half-sister will enjoy the drop back in trip (6f) and drop into a Handicap race.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Dundalk 15:05
Selection	Disagree
Strength	1/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 6.00
Reasoning	Trainer G M Lyons won this in 2008. Had the 3rd in 2009 and 4th in 2010. He has two entries today with J P Murtagh booked with the selection. He made a promising debut at Navan (6f) in June when 5th of 12 by 5 1/2 lengths on Good to Firm going. His next two runs have been on Soft going. Finished 6th of 8 (1m) and 3rd of 13 (6f). The trip today is 6f and that is where he's done his best. He is a half-brother to the very useful 5f (Listed) winner Mecca´s Mate and sired by Ishiguru. He was only 4 lengths behind the winner Dragon Pulse at Leopardstown last time out. He finished well and the upgrade to Murtagh should get him to improve.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Aqua Lad - Pontefract 4:30 Mark Johnston is the top trainer at this track so im surprised to see a debutant of his at such a big price. Yes makes little appeal on paper but Johnston has a good strike rate with his newcomers and i think its worth a nibble e/w. 1 Point e/w @ 25/1 (Powers) BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Olympian - Southwell 3:15 Distance winner 3 times and looks too big a price to me. Won a good few hurdle races and the booking of Jamie Moore is a positive today. Jamies record on the horse is 2-1-4-3-8 so is never far away on the horse and worth a stab on its chase debut, small bet. 1 Point win @ 12/1 (Boylesports) BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Strandhill - Dundalk 4:35 Could run these ragged from the front today, if it gets an easy lead i can see it very hard to peg back. Had first run for new yard last time out and finished a creditable 4th of 11 at Leopardstown and will strip much fitter today. Pat Smullen takes the ride for the first time today, very significant. 2 Points e/w @ 6/1 (Bet365) BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug Jet To Rio - Dundalk 5:05 Yet to fulfill the promise it showed on debut when finished 6th with plenty of winners and placers to come from that race. I like the fact Colm O Donoghue takes the ride today for a very good trainer Mr Marnane, runs off a very leniant mark of 62 today and could improve today and take a hand. 1 Point e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365) BOG

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 16:30
Selection	To The Spring
Strength	5/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Coral @ 7.50
Reasoning	First time bllinkers last time out resulted in her best career run. Trainer William Haggas have been having agood month and he has two runners at the meeting today. The other is Drever Dream and gives him a good chance for a double on the card. Haggas won 3 of his last 5 runners going into today. His month has 8 winners from 22 runners. His record at the track the last 5 seasons is 9 wins from 38 - he has 5 wins from 5 runs this year.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Pontefract 16:00
Selection	Robemaker (w/o favorite)
Strength	5/10
Date	14/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 3.75
Reasoning	Progressing well on Turf this year. 3rd, 2nd, 1st. This is the only runner on the card from trainer John Gosden. He had the winner earlier in with Rainy Mac. Jockey William Buick was on board that ride and here for this one. This is his last ride of the day. The selection won at Yarmouth (1m) last time out. He is by Oasis Dream and cost 40,000gns F, 82,000gns Y so there may be more to come.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing 14th Aug

3.30 pont :listed sprint dever dream 145 (recent 125) rose blossom 133 capercaille 128 rimth 125 on his best form dever dream could win this easily but the worry is his recent run suggested he went backwards and i wouldnt want to be taking 6/4 on a horse of that profile .rose blossom is the value horse in the race at 11/2 with skybet and i dont expect that to last long (9/2 generally ) .im very tempted to go e.w on rose blossom but i think capercaille has a fair shout of placing ,so if rimth is 4/1 then capercaille should be around the 8/1 mark is is available at 40/1 with bet 365 so im going 1 pt win rose blossom 11/2 skybet and 1pt e.w capercaille 40/1 bet365

rose blossom won nicely ,dever dream no where