veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 I was reading some threads about users trying out systems for selecting games where there will be more than 0 goals scored in the match. The odds for this bet are typically around -1300. I have been back-testing a system where I have been able to predict matches where 1 goal or more was scored at 97%. This is against a database of more than 5000 games. I calculated the yield to be 4.4% on this wager. Can someone give me any feedback about this information? It would be greatly appreciated. Thanks, Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System what do you mean odds of -1300?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System You have to lay -1300 dollars to win 100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System what would they be in decimal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System Let me also say that I am against laying these types of odds on any sporting event even if it may show a positive yield. I just dont like laying this kind of money. I wanted to simply see if I could add anything to the discussion about this type of system or wager. I am a value bettor and think this is the best approach to wagering. You have to be able to identify lines where you think the public is wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System It would be around 1.08 in decimal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System are you concentrating on a particular country/league? Maybe instead of laying 0-0s which often are about 10.00, you could bet on 1 or more goal at 1.08, less liability. just means a slow climb, but if you predict 97% then probably not a problem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System Veresov, 97% strike rate on 1 goal or more jives with the 4% or so profit you quoted. 1+ goals is typically quoted at 1.08, which at 97% would result i 4.8% profit on turnover. Will you identify any games selected by your system? Cheers, i. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System I really have no interest in either of these wagers. I noticed that our program can predict which games will have 1 or more goals 97% of the time. That is based on only 5000 games with only 30% of them qualifying as a play. This topic seemed like a hot one, so I decided to research it a little and these are the results I came up with. Thanks, Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System Sure, here are the games for tomorrow: HARTLEPOOL WEST HAM MANCHESTER UNITED CHELSEA PRESTON IPSWICH STEVENAGE PORTSMOUTH QUEENS PARK NORTHAMPTON TOTTENHAM BOURNEMOUTH This is what I have for tomorrow. Good luck. Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System Thanks for posting these. Unfortunately Betfair doesn't offer Total goals market on any of them. One could lay 0-0, which is equivalent to 1+ goals, or perhaps play the over 2.5 goals market? What is your system indicating for this type of matches in the over/under 2.5 golas market? Cheers, i. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System System isn't good at over/under and I wouldn't play any of them that way. What are the odds on laying 0-0? Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System Depends on the actual game. They range from 14.00 and up, e.g. Ispwitch 14.00, Chelsea >25.00, Man Utd >25.00, Hartlepool >13.00, Portsmouth 20.00, West Ham 14.00, etc. Probably not worth the bother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System Unreal!! This is why I don't like the bet at all. Just too much money to lay on any event. Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: > 0 Goals System Right, waste of time and much too risky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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