Lennox Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 The SPL is my betting bread and butter. So, this season, alongside the tips I post in the SPL thread, I'm going to start a weekly Lucky 63 on the 6 fixtures. I'll use a variety of markets with minimum odds per line of 2.00. I'll only be staking 10p on each line. All bets will be with Stan James. I'll post my tips with at least a few hours' notice and will give a very short reasoning for each. One early stumbling block is that the SPL has allowed clubs to play a wildcard in the first three weeks of the season, allowing them to cancel a fixture in favour of a friendly (this is because the agreed league start date was subsequently brought forward). This means in weeks 2&3, there are fewer games. I've decided that if clubs are allowed wildcards, then so am I, and will therefore look elsewhere on the fixture list to complete the Lucky 63. I also have some thoughts for the plethora of postponements the weather will bring, but will deal with that when it comes (could be next week...). I'm going to set quite a conservative target. My calculations set the 38-week financial outlay at £239.40, so my initial return target is simply £239.41. Obviously, I hope it will comfortably exceed this. Right, let's get the party started ... Week 1 Aberdeen v St Johnstone: Draw @ 3.25 Defences on top, I reckon. Both sides will set up looking not to lose. Dundee United v Kilmarnock: Dundee Utd HT/FT @ 2.88 Don't see a Euro hangover. United to start fast and overwhelm my relegation tips. Dunfermline v St Mirren: Draw 3.25 Two relegation favourites will want to get on the board, expecting a low-key encounter. Hibs v Celtic: Celtic -1 (EH) @ 2.10 Expecting a fast start from Celtic, who should have too much firepower. Motherwell v Inverness CT: Motherwell @ 2.10 More goal threat in the Well side. ICT look short up front. Rangers v Hearts: Both to score @ 2.00 Hearts should create chances, fancy them to nick one. Stake: £6.30 Potential return: £201.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Liking it Lennox. Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus81 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Hey Lennox, I dont get it: what are you plaing? When i calculate the odds of the six games = 268! What kind of combi are you doing? Al single bets, doubles, trebles....?? Greets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted July 22, 2011 Author Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s It's a Lucky 63, Rufus. 63 bets made up of a 6-fold, 5-folds, 4-folds, trebles, doubles and singles, covering every possible combination. I'm playing 10p per line. Most bookies will have the option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus81 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s hi Lennox, In the netherlands we have a saying: dont sell the skin before the bear has been shot:), but today three out of three is great! My respects! Is this youre average strike rate?:) greetz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gelkinwhite Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s rollin rollin 3 from 3 nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheImp Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Wow, great start - you read those first day games well. I'll be joining you on your Celtic pick as I quite fancy that too. Best of luck for the remaining games. Even if it doesn't come in, I'm sure you'll have a return of some sort fairly soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted July 24, 2011 Author Share Posted July 24, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Thanks for all the comments guys. Nice to get off to a decent start. Rufus, to answer your question, I tend to do ok in the SPL. The lucky 63 will generally just be big-price hunches, though, rather than serious bets, which I post in the SPL thread. Thanks for your kind words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Congratulations Lennox... 5/6 correct, what a fantastic start to your glory hunt, and certainly better than "I tend to do ok in the SPL" :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Week 1 Aberdeen v St Johnstone: Draw @ 3.25 - WIN Dundee United v Kilmarnock: Dundee Utd HT/FT @ 2.88 - LOSS Dunfermline v St Mirren: Draw 3.25 -WIN Hibs v Celtic: Celtic -1 (EH) @ 2.10 - WIN Motherwell v Inverness CT: Motherwell @ 2.10 - WIN Rangers v Hearts: Both to score @ 2.00 - WIN Week 1 return: £51.97 Total return: £51.97 Target: £239.41 Delighted with that start. To get 5/6 on the opening weekend is far more than I ever hoped for. Takes a massive bite into the target. See you all next week :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Great start mate, well done :clap Good Luck for the rest of the season :hope:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefanos56 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Excellent stuff - definitely one to follow. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Only five games in the SPL this weekend because Celtic are playing in the Dublin Cup and Dunfermline in the League Cup, so it's time to play that first wildcard. Week 2 Hearts v Dundee United: Draw @ 3.40 Two best sides outside the Old Firm lock horns, not much between them at this stage. Inverness CT v Hibs: Draw @ 3.25 Two "new" teams are still finding their feet. Expect a cagey one. Kilmarnock v Motherwell: Jamie Murphy to score any time @ 3.25 The sought-after striker is out to impress Premiership scouts. St Johnstone v Rangers: Most goals in 2nd half @ 2.10 Lunchtime kick-offs often have a sleepy start, hope this one enjoys a long lie. St Mirren v Aberdeen: St Mirren @ 2.62 Buddies' varied attacking options should give the Dons a hard time. (WC) Lens v Reims: Lens -1 (EH) @ 3.20 Slight variation on a tip from my French correspondent. Stake: £6.30 Potential return: £375.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Week 2 Hearts v Dundee United: Draw @ 3.40 - LOSS Inverness CT v Hibs: Draw @ 3.25 - LOSS Kilmarnock v Motherwell: Jamie Murphy to score any time @ 3.25 -LOSS St Johnstone v Rangers: Most goals in 2nd half @ 2.10 - LOSS St Mirren v Aberdeen: St Mirren @ 2.62 - WIN (WC) Lens v Reims: Lens -1 (EH) @ 3.20 - LOSS Naff weekend to say the least on the L63. Will dust myself down and get back on it next time round. Week 2 return - 42p Total return - £52.39 Target - £239.41 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Just the four SPL games this weekend, with several "glamour" friendlies taking precedence. That means two wildcard picks, but I won't be making any exotic choices; more like a staycation. Week 3 Aberdeen v Celtic: Anthony Stokes to score any time @ 2.00 Irish hitman put 6 past the Dons in 4 games last season. Same again please. Dundee United v St Mirren: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 Saints' new attacking outlook combined with United's all-round strength equals goals. Dunfermline v Inverness CT: Most goals in 2nd half @ 2.10 Expect a cagey start, with neither side opening up until later stages. Motherwell v Hearts: Draw @ 3.25 Will be a hard-fought encounter, spoils could well be shared. (WC) Partick Thistle v Dundee: Dundee @ 2.20 Division 1 title favourites will be keen to start well against side that lost at home to Berwick (Division 3) in cup last week. (WC) Stirling Albion v East Fife: East Fife @ 2.10 John Roberston's Fifers have looked sharp in the cups; Stirling are pulling players in off the streets ... Total stake: £6.30 Potential return: £121.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Good Luck as usual Lennox, A suggestion on my half, I like the odds that you choose, but even if you get just a win Double, your only looking on a return of around 85p+ Where as a Treble would return only 84p without the singles and the 3 x double. I personally would suggest you do 40p Fourfolds, 20p five folds and a 60p accy, as if you hit all six such as today, your return would be in excess of £350+ Plus if you any 4 in a week, it is almost certainly going to give you your stake money back, with 5 giving you a decent profit. Only my thoughts by the way, as I see if you have 1 loser, then you have already lost over half your stake anyway. Great first week, Look forward to watching the rest of the season :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Week 3 Aberdeen v Celtic: Anthony Stokes to score any time @ 2.00 - WIN Dundee United v St Mirren: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 - LOSS Dunfermline v Inverness CT: Most goals in 2nd half @ 2.10 - WIN Motherwell v Hearts: Draw @ 3.25 - LOSS (WC) Partick Thistle v Dundee: Dundee @ 2.20 - WIN (WC) Stirling Albion v East Fife: East Fife @ 2.10 - LOSS Week 3 return: £2.88 Total return: £55.27 Total staked: £18.90 Profit/Loss: +£36.37 Kevsul: Thanks for the comments and suggestions. Might do some number-crunching and see if there's anything I can tweak :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amberarmy71 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Week 3 return: £2.88 Total return: £55.27 Total staked: £18.90 Profit/Loss: +£36.37 Kevsul: Thanks for the comments and suggestions. Might do some number-crunching and see if there's anything I can tweak :ok don't understand how you've made profit (all be it small) i backed your six selections on a lucky 63 and with more or less the same odds and made a loss of around 55% of my stake :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amberarmy71 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s 05/08/2011Lucky 63 (To win) 63£6.30 Dunfermline vs Inverness CTWhich half will produce most goals? Second Half 2.00Aberdeen vs CelticTo score at any timeAnthony Stokes 2.10Dundee United vs St MirrenTotal goals - over/under 2.5Over 2.10Motherwell vs HeartsMatch bettingDraw 3.30Partick Thistle vs DundeeMatch bettingDundee 2.20Stirling Albion vs East FifeMatch bettingEast Fife 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amberarmy71 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s i made £2.88 return from £6.30 stake:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s I think you've misread my "accounts". I didn't make any profit this week. My return, like you, was £2.88. The profit referred to (£36.37) is over the course of the hunt so far. Hope that helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gelkinwhite Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s keep going lennox watching your bets with intrest (dont no much about the scottish leagues)you'll hit six eventually.....good luck:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelgianPunter Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Nice work Lennox :ok Keep on working :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenweegie Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Come on Lennox. Im following you from start to finish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Full card to play with this week. Going to stick with the L63 strategy for now, but I'll continue to review it. The aim's not to bust the bookie every week, purely to make a profit over the course of the season. The first week's pot means I'm quite relaxed about the low returns since then. There probably will be more weeks than not that fail to return a profit, but like I said, I'm taking only a long-term outlook. Anyway, onwards and upwards... Week 4: Celtic v Dundee United: Both teams to score @ 2.00 United have weapons to trouble a Celtic side minus their first-choice full-backs. Hearts v Aberdeen: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 Not a lot of value going around on this match, so it's hard to describe this pick as more than a punt. Inverness CT v Rangers: Most goals in 2nd half @ 2.10 This line could be a regular for the lunchtime KO. Rangers will have a makeshift defence and ICT were ripped apart last week, so expect both to start cagily. Kilmarnock v Hibs: Hibs (draw no bet) @ 2.04 Two sides rebuilding, but I think Hibs will show they're further ahead in the development process. St Johnstone v Dunfermline: St Johnstone @ 2.00 Yup, I know Saints will actually have to score for this to come up. Strong at the back, they should keep the Pars quiet, so let's hope they can find the net. St Mirren v Motherwell: Motherwell @ 2.50 Full reasons for this in the SPL thread, where I've taken draw cover, but Saints will seriously miss McGregor and Hasselbaink. :ok Stake: £6.30 Potential return: £92.23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenweegie Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Seems you have found the touch again Lennox. 4 out 5 and still waiting on one. Well done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenweegie Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 4 out of 6 Lennox - well done. Im going to follow you for as long as you post your selections. Im sure you will hit the six at some point. Well done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s 4 out of 6 Lennox - well done. Im going to follow you for as long as you post your selections. Im sure you will hit the six at some point. Well done Thanks mate, appreciate the support. Hoping to hit the six soon, although I'm already wary of next weekend's card, which looks potentially trappy. Will find something to keep us occupied though :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lennox Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: SPL - Scottish Premier Lucky 63s Week 4: Celtic v Dundee United: Both teams to score @ 2.00 - WIN Hearts v Aberdeen: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 - WIN Inverness CT v Rangers: Most goals in 2nd half @ 2.10 -WIN Kilmarnock v Hibs: Hibs (draw no bet) @ 2.04 - LOSS St Johnstone v Dunfermline: St Johnstone @ 2.00 - LOSS St Mirren v Motherwell: Motherwell @ 2.50 - WIN Week 4 return: £9.99 Total return: £65.26 Total staked: £25.20 TOTAL P/L: +£40.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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