Laying longshots

[froment]

Some matches in Coppa America proved time and again that blind betting on favourites never works - despite Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay having been heavily favoured by bookmakers, they failed to win; however, it was draw that killed those bets, not an underdog's win. Thus, I got the idea to try laying long shots, and see if it can bring some profit in. There is no clear selection process; I will be laying underdogs, sometimes at HT, at odds between 5 and 10, although sometimes I may pick teams out of those borders. For league matches, I rely mainly on recent form, and possibly to injury/suspension news; I usually avoid cup matches, although for three in Copa America mentioned above, Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador were quite attractive lays. This is paper test. Starting bank is 100 units; initial stake is to liability of 20 units; after that I will go all-in for 10 winning lays, or untill that initial liability is tripled, or bet is lost, whichever comes sooner; then new sequence starts, with initial stake to liability of 20% of total bank, but not less than 20 units. That's what I call "Sequential all-in". Of course, 20% of bank is sucidal plan when really placing bets; but I want to test this idea, and that's why I go so aggresive; it allows me to try 5 times, and if I hit 5 losing sequences in the beginning, then it's a no-no idea. Will see how it goes, and may adjust some of the rules along the way.

[froment]

Re: Laying longshots Bet 1: Finland 1, Monday, 1730CET: KuPS vs. HJK Helsinki Lay KuPS, odds 8.00, stake 2.85, liability 19.95.