Lars Racing Thread

[Monterosso]

Re: Lars Racing Thread :clap Tops mate. Some price.

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread

:clap Tops mate. Some price.

Cheers, nice to see one go to plan. After your antics earlier thought I had to get in on the action ;)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread +22pts profit for the day, with Shesastar coming from the rear and winning comfortably. She was well-backed all day and went off 5/1. There's another race in her at some point and she'll stay a mile, too. Couple in mind for Saturday already, including one for the Ebor. Posting this one now as the price may go by later this evening. 14:00 York REGAL PARADE is undoubtedly the class horse in the race, a twice Group 1 winner at 6f and 6.5f's. He's not penalised for them successes and takes the drop to listed company for the first time in two years. Although out of sorts on a couple of occasions this season, I think today could be the day which he bounces back. The seven year-old has won 10 times from 41 career starts and won the Haydock Sprint Cup back in September 2009. He then started the 2010 flat season in similar heart, winning a Group 3 at Newbury and then a Group 1 at Deauville in tremendous fashion. Since that Deauville victory, he hasn't shown nearly as decent form, but there have been hints of it as recently as July. His run this year in the July Cup for instance was a cracker all things considered. The ground was far too quick for him and he was positioned much too far back but still made eye-catching progress in the closing stages of the race and only finished four and a quarter lengths behind Dream Ahead. It to me showed that he still retained most of his ability and on more suitable ground, would pick up a nice race or two. Today seems his best chance for a little while in getting his head in front. Even if the ground dries up slightly, it'll still be the most suitable ground he's run on for a little while. Some would say that his run at Newcastle in a weak Group 3 on softer ground shows that he's lost most of the sparkle. However, he's nearly always shown his best form from July onwards (last four victories came between July-September) and it may also be that 6f is a little sharp for him nowadays. From his run at Newbury last time, when having to be scrubbed along a fair way out, it indicated that a step up to today's trip of 7f was needed. He stays this trip too, having run a creditable race in a Haydock Group 3 back in May when the ground was quicker than ideal to finish 2nd behind The Cheka. The drop to listed class should be enough for Regal Parade to be very competitive once again (won at his last try at this grade). The softer ground will be ideal and the step up in trip won't be of any inconvenience. Although a couple, such as King Torus and Ya Wayl hold solid claims. The first mentioned has a hefty absence to come off, while the other faces a fairly stiff rise in grade. Dream Eater is exceptionally unreliable for win purposes. Doncaster Rover may be the biggest danger as he's consistent, if not spectacular. With this taken into account, Regal Parade is priced at 11/2 which in my view is much too big. He should be around the 4/1 mark at best and with plenty in his favour, he can run a big race. REGAL PARADE; 3pts Win @ 11/2 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 16:50 York HOLY ROMAN WARRIOR really impressed me with his attitude when winning over 7f in a maiden at York last month and with the step up to a mile very likely to suit, he rates as a viable alternative to the Richard Hannon trained favourite Crius. Richard Fahey trained 2yo, who ran two creditable races on softer ground on his first two starts. He was beaten 2.75 lengths in each and the form of the first one has worked out extremely well (Bogart hacked up here earlier in the week). His second start was in a competitive heat too so it was little surprise that he was able to make his mark in a 7f maiden here. In front from a long way out, he held off the challenge of Saffa Hill, who was absolutely flying at the finish but just couldn't quite get past. It showed a cracking attitude on the part of the Fahey trained horse and also showed that he had the stamina to stay further, as he wasn't stopping at the finish by any means. Allotted a mark of 80, I think that's workable at this sort of trip in nurseries. He'll almost definitely stay it as he's related to the high-class Corsica who was a winner over middle-distances. He's highly regarded by the Fahey yard and by my calculations, he could be at least 5lbs ahead of the handicapper, especially as I was extremely impressed with his last effort. Although Crius is a worthy favourite after winning quite easily last time in a Novice stakes, I'm not sure he beat much and the 11/4 is about right. Holy Roman Warrior is 5/1 and I feel he should be around 7/2. It's not one to be too confident in as there's plenty that could improve drastically to the switch to nurseries/this trip, even so, if it turns out to be a battle towards the finish, and if Holy Roman Warrior is involved, then I know the one I'd prefer to be on. HOLY ROMAN WARRIOR; 2pts Win @ 5/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread -8pts on a really poor day all round. Pretty much knew I was screwed when the ground dried up as much as it did, therefore harming the chances of all three. Should have waited. Regardless, had a profitable Ebor week and will update full stats sometime early next week as it looks a quiet week of racing. York City lost to make it a really shit day... Beer time :beer

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread I did a fairly long write-up and I lost it :wall So this will be a much shorter version. 17:05 Hamilton CHOOKIE ROYALE has drifted to 10/1 without a BOG concession and that's a big price for a horse who definitely has potential to be rated in the 80's by the end of the season and an opening mark of 75 looks quite lenient. Twice raced, showed promise on debut (track too sharp and was short of room) before winning in game fashion over 6f here. That trip looked the bare minimum for him and the testing track here obviously helped. Will improve bundles for the step up in trip, both on running style and breeding (related to stacks of middle-distance winners, dam winner over this trip). It may be that today he struggles with the hustle and bustle of a big field handicap, as he's still likely to be a little bit green. Even so, I had priced him up at the 15/2 mark, so 10/1 looks generous. His trainer remains in good form for his debut season and he's a horse to keep an eye on in the future. It may be that it just comes too soon but he has the potential to rout this kind of field, as he's on a good mark, unexposed, and likely to enjoy this trip. CHOOKIE ROYALE; 1pt EW @ 10/1 Stan James

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Big drifter in the market, and actually took a bit at 22's on Betfair. That told the full story though. It isn't a run to judge him too harshly on as he's still incredibly green. He'll pick up a nice race at some point this year, but does need to mature mentally quite quickly. -2pts

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 2nd. His poor jumping probably cost him as it lost him a bit of momentum on a couple of occasions. Had to be given reminders a fair way out but picked the bit back up about three out and came with a threatening looking challenge. However, he didn't jump the last hurdle as well as the winner and that one was game in front. To make things worse, I set an in-running lay to cover my stake at 1.50. Traded in-running at 1.55 :pukeGutted.

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 19:20 Kempton TAX BREAK obviously has stacks of ability if taking a look through some of the horses he’s beaten or got close to in maiden company. It may be that he’s just a “bad ‘un” and worth avoiding but I’ll give him another chance tonight, especially as the track should be in his favour and if putting his best foot forward, he could win this one easily. The David Barron trained 4 year-old only had one run last year and that was when with Mark Johnston, making a belated debut in October at Nottingham over 10f. Travelling extremely well he looked to be making a serious challenge to the eventual winner Pekan Star, but his stamina just faded in the closing stages and Tax Break ended up 4^th. It was still a fantastic effort first time up, especially in a race which obviously was a decent one (runner up not raced since, third gone on to be a high-class juvenile hurdler). He was sold out of Mark Johnston’s yard for £18,000 and got off the mark at the second time of asking when making all in a Wolverhampton maiden over 7f. He hung right that day which gave a hint to some of his quirks; even so that victory has worked out extremely well. The runner-up is now rated 93, third placed rated 82 and the fourth home is rated 70. He was carrying a stone more than the runner up that day too so in hindsight it looks a very decent performance. Since going handicapping however off a mark of 80, things have gone downhill. He raced on softer ground at Carlisle on his handicap debut in May and the combination of the slow ground and stiff track probably didn’t suit. That being said, he travelled well up until the business end of the race and after a three month absence, he was also entitled to need the run. The worrying aspect for this selection now follows; he wasn’t seen up until two weeks ago. The break does indicate that there’s been some issues with him and he was actually sold within the yard for only £5200 at the sales (may be an innocent explanation as the owners registered haven’t actually changed). Even so, he was sent off favourite for a moderate 7f Wolverhampton handicap after being fairly well-backed. He ran an absolute stinker though, constantly wanting to hang right and overall, it was an awful performance. Every horse is worthy of a second chance though and I think the Kempton track should help keep him straight as it’s left-handed. It may well be that he prefers going this way round especially as he showed no such quirks when running at Carlisle. The wide draw doesn’t really help but if he can get in some kind of cover before the bend, then it should be more likely that he can put his best foot forward. As he’s dropped 3lbs, any such action would put him with a big chance in this race especially compared to the ability he showed in his first two starts. David Barron obviously hasn’t given up on him too, especially as they make the long journey down to Kempton for this one runner, a 480 mile round trip. He isn’t the only trainer in the race to make a long journey down for this race but, at 16/1, Tax Break is definitely worth a small bet. If putting his best foot forward. His behaviour might mean he has no chance but he’s got a solid chance if everything falls right for him and off this kind of mark, he should be up to winning this sort of race, as trappy as it looks on paper. Unfortunately things aren’t that simple, especially with this one but at the prices, you don’t have to be right too many times to make a profit. TAX BREAK; 1pt EW @ 16/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 15:20 Catterick RIVER DRAGON will relish the step up to 2miles on the flat and although I’m undecided to how well handicapped he actually is, I still think he’s worthy of a bet for a yard whose horses have been running really well this year. Originally a horse with Aidan O’Brien, he actually debuted in the National Hunt Flat sphere for Malcolm Jefferson, running creditable races in bumpers before moving to Neville Bycroft. Having run well in a 12f flat maiden at Southwell (missed the break, stayed on really well) he ran some solid races in novice hurdles before finally getting off the mark in a 2m4f hurdle at Wetherby. Although the form doesn’t really stand up to much he won that race really well and it is quite surprising that a flat campaign has been undertaken. Of course he’s needed three runs to be qualified for a mark and his first two flat efforts are the ones of interest. The first has already been mentioned but the second over 12f at Newcastle was creditable as although beaten 15 lengths, he was plugging on at the finish and was given a considerate ride. It showed to me that it would be at around this trip where he would come into his own. He’s since moved yards in the summer (trainer always owned him but has recently got a licence himself) to Tony Coyle and was last seen only 12 days ago here at Catterick. Again over 1m4f, he was ridden too close to the pace and didn’t really stand a chance, becoming outpaced when the gallop (which was a good one) was wound up. It was his first run for four months too and was entitled to need the run. Although a mark of 61 may seem a little high, he’s shown definite promise on the flat, especially the Southwell effort and when running in a Jumpers Bumper at this trip on the fibresand. The Newcastle effort wasn’t half as bad as it looks on paper and there’s definitely some natural improvement to come from the step up in trip and switch to handicaps. The Tony Coyle yard have been going well in their first season; with a 3/12 record from their runners this year and their winners going off at prices of 9/2, 25/1 and 28/1. Although he lines up against some seasoned handicappers in this sphere today, it’s not unlikely that he can run a big race at a double figure price. Barry McHugh is a decent booking (especially compared to Brian Toomey who rode him last time), he handles the track and the trip is likely to suit. If the ground gets too quick is the big unknown but Sadler’s Well’s progeny handle any ground anyway and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, especially as the selection has run well on good ground in the past. Not one to get too involved with as they may just be keeping him fit for a campaign over timber but he’ll strip much fitter from his run recently anyway and has to have place claims at least here. RIVER DRAGON; 1pt EW @ 14/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Supercharged was backed into 7/2 joint-favouritism but was probably given a bit too much to do by Seb Sanders, having to be switched to the inside and then didn't receive a clear run immediately. She finished fourth in the end but was probably a bit unlucky and as she only finished a head, head and neck behind, it could have made all the difference. An absolutely shocking week, but things could have looked so much better had I had the rub of the green. Very disappointing.

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Had the weekend off, the ground/poor quality racing in general was another factor. Probably just this one for today, I did like Ebony Diamond in the first at Huntingdon but the price has kind of gone and with the quick ground, was probably enough to put me off. Will win at some point this season, mind. 16:35 Newcastle This race has cut up pretty badly with 3 non-runners, so a field of six line up. DANUM DANCER handles the testing conditions well and if fit after a lay-off, can definitely go close. Very smart as a 2yo (won Redcar 2yo Trophy), then raced in the 2000 Guineas as a 3yo, he's had injury problems and has therefore taken a huge tumble in the weights and is now rated 56. This kind of mark isn't out of reach though, as he won on the fibresand off 57 back in December 2009. Since that win he was set some tough tasks, but came back to form in the latter part of 2010 when not beaten far off this kind of mark at Nottingham, going down by 2 lengths, staying on well. He's won in the past with cut in the ground and his win at Southwell does show that he likes testing ground. His last run, on heavy ground over CD should be ignored as although he handled the ground, the run came too soon (3 days after his previous effort). Not seen since, his fitness should be taken on trust but Neville Bycroft has been going extremely well as of late (two winners this weekend, especially for such a small yard). Just checked his assistant trainers twitter and he claims that this one is ready to do himself justice. He advises an EW bet but I'm not a fan of that when only two places are available. 8/1 is too big (I was expecting 5/1 in a race with so many non-runners). DANUM DANCER; 2pts Win @ 8/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Lars]

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 15:00 Ripon The current price of ALMOND BRANCHES is nigh on ridiculous and I feel it’s worth a maximum bet in what I think is quite a poor contest. The George Moore trained 2yo is quite experienced compared to some of her rivals having had six starts to date. After showing promise on her first three starts in maidens, she got off the mark at Catterick over the minimum trip. It took her an absolute age to get going and the sharp track there obviously wasn’t ideal but she showed massive heart to get in front in the dying strides. The form of that race has been well and truly franked with the winner now rated 97. Although not form to be taken too literally, it showed how decent a performance it actually was. She’s had two starts in nurseries since after being allotted a mark of 77. One was in a competitive big field nursery at York where she ran with credit, while her latest effort is the one of big interest. She was well-backed (11/1 into 6/1) but was outpaced over the 5f which was run at a brisk pace. She stuck on well at the end mind and it screams out that she should improve bundles for a step up to 6f. Another horse in that race which finished in similar fashion to Almond Branches (but just behind) also made a winning step up to 6f on his next start which bodes well. She’s looked in need of a step up in trip in all her recent starts, even when she won over 5f so this trip will very likely be ideal. It’s only a six runner race so it’s easy to talk about all her rivals. Lord Buffhead has a fair bit to do from out the handicap and may also want softer ground than he’ll get (drying all the time). Annie Walker was allotted a fairly low mark for such a resounding success last time. However she beat nothing that day and the step back in trip looks an odd move, especially on quite a sharp track like Ripon. Her yard is also in quite poor form. Blue Shoes landed a maiden last time and has the assistance again of Paul Hanagan, she’s entitled to run her race but I’m not sure how much progression there is to come from her. The slow time of Class Monitors last race puts a downer on what could have been quite good form. The step up in trip also may not derive as much improvement as from some of the others. Finally there is Tell Dad who’s probably the classiest of the runners. He’s on too high a mark for me though even with a 3lb claimer on board and he ran so poorly on his only try with some cut in the ground. As stated I’m really hopeful for ALMOND BRANCHES chance today. She should handle soft ground if it comes up that way (Dutch Art first crop have a 33% strike-rate on good to soft) and if it doesn’t she’s hardly going to be inconvenienced. She’s bred to enjoy the step up in trip and on running style, it looks warranted. George Moore is in good form as of late with a 3/10 strike rate in the past two weeks and has been dropped 3lbs from her last start too; which gives her a huge chance of getting in front for the second time. I thought she’d be around a 7/2 chance today, so seeing 8/1 really made me have a second look. Quite frankly I’m not too impressed with most of her rivals and apart from if any have made some serious improvements at home since last running, Almond Branches should take all the beating. ALMOND BRANCHES; 5pts Win @ 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 14:40 Epsom CLEAR PRAISE will have to bounce back from a poor run at Newmarket last time, but two efforts here at Epsom earlier in the season put him in the mix today and I’m expecting a big run. Trained by Simon Dow, the 4yo had a cracking winter on the all-weather, winning three times. The last of those wins came off an all-weather mark of 75, which is now his current turf mark. On a quick browse of the form he’s looked to have struggled since running on grass but a more in-depth look suggests some hard luck thrown in for good measure. For instance, his two efforts at Epsom have been more than promising. The first over CD, he was given what can be described as a “poor ride”. Held up way off the pace, meeting trouble and then not given a hard time once his chance had seemingly gone. He did well to finish only 3.5 lengths behind Baldemar, whom he-opposes today on better terms. That run was also off a 5lb higher mark. The second was over 5f and that trip on this track was far too sharp for him, even so, he made decent enough progress in the closing stages to suggest a 6f trip on this track would be well within reach. He was last seen 25 days ago running at Newmarket and although it was most definitely a poor effort, he was hardly put into the race anyway and for a usually fairly consistent type, it’s probably worth putting a line through. Reunited today with Hayley Turner (has a good record with Simon Dow; 16% strike-rate and a +31.52 LSP), he’s likely to enjoy the little bit of cut in the ground that will still remain (he perhaps wouldn’t the ground to become too quick). Clear Praise is a double figure price when I feel he should be much shorter, especially as he seemingly likes Epsom, has fallen to a very workable looking mark, is well-drawn and will enjoy the ground. Although there’s a few in here that come in decent heart such as Baldemar whose an Epsom specialist himself, Clear Praise is now much better off in the weights. Gentle Lord may be the biggest danger having run a cracker off an absence last time but he is up 3lbs for finishing 3^rd. You don’t quite know what you’re going to get with Simon Dow’s horses, but hopefully this one will be fully wound up and if so, and if staying out of trouble in-running then he has much better claims than the odds of 10/1 suggest, as he should really be around 6/1. CLEAR PRAISE; 2pts Win @ 10/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Getting a wee bit ridiculous now. Clear Praise didn't run too badly I guess but wasn't given a whack with the whip from what I can remember, that alongside the big drift just before the off... Now came Almond Branches, who was heavily backed into 7/2 (20p R4 on the 8/1 I got). She never looked too happy and ended up pulled up and dismounted. Her jockey said she never looked happy and lost her action, but would be surprised if it was the ground especially with Dutch Art progeny doing superbly with cut. I felt a bit cheated out of a run as it was too bad to be true and for such a honest horse, even if she hated the ground (not convinced that was the reason), then I'd have thought she'd have plodded on through it. Chosen Character was also heavily backed, ending up 2nd fav, going off at 5/1 (20p R4 on the 16/1 (!) that I got). He ran with much more credit than last time but was forced very wide and Epsom may have been a little too sharp for him, ending up 5th. It wasn't the best of rides as he did travel extremely well for a time, trading at 2/1 in-running. A step back up to further and he can win off this mark, no real complaints. Not really sure what to do, I keep beating the starting price in pretty spectacular fashion in most cases but I'm getting very little joy. I suppose I should just persevere as things are sure to turn if I keep getting such decent value but it's difficult when it seems that a bad run has continued for three months out of four. Gets me thinking that it can't just be "bad luck" and I must be doing something severely wrong... Unlikely to be having a bet tomorrow as it's hilariously dire stuff so will need to investigate...

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread Making a few small changes, mainly to do with my staking as I don't feel I give myself enough options, especially with only tentative fancies that have recently been going and winning, I've not backed them merely cos I thought it "not worth it" with only a 0.5pt stake for example. I've a few I like for tomorrow on a really thorough inspection of the cards, although some will depend on how they're priced up early doors. 17:00 Bath EMIRATESDOTCOM has to contend with a career high handicap mark today of 68 but will almost definitely have the race run to suit and for a horse who is seemingly in the form of his life, he’s worth an investment. Milton Bradley’s 5yo has made slow improvement through 2011, starting the season on a mark of 60 and has won twice, both over today’s trip of 6f. The last of those wins came off 3lbs lower than he currently runs off but he did it in good style, coming from the rear in a race that is likely to pan out very similar to today’s contest. When last seen over CD 11 days ago, he may have put up a career best performance. Although only finishing 5^th two lengths behind the winner, that race was a very competitive 0-85 handicap, much tougher than he encounters today. The selection also was ridden fairly prominently that day which wouldn’t have suited, especially as he likes to be held up off a brisk pace. Even so, he stuck on really gamely and it showed he was still in cracking heart. Today they’ll be plenty of pace in the race I feel with the majority of the horses in the field liking to be prominent, and front-runners including Interchoice Star and Wooden King. This brisk pace will be ideal for my selection and with a bit of luck in-running, he should be bang there at the finish. Although 3lbs higher than his last winning mark, he remains in good heart and a replication of his effort in better company last time over course and distance would see him go extremely close. I priced him up at around 11/2, so 8/1 is a couple of points too big. He goes on any ground and enjoys the track, with Hayley Turner riding out of her skin currently; I should get a decent run for my money. EMIRATESDOTCOM; 1.5pts @ 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 20:20 Kempton SOCIAL FORUM has been off for 130 days and makes his reappearance in a typically tough London Mile qualifier. There has to be a little bit of doubt whether he’ll be fully wound up for this after the aforementioned absence but he has joined a yard in scintillating form of late and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt at what is a fairly big price. Formerly with Irish trainer Rodger Sweeney, he’s had five starts to date and has showed all his best form on the all-weather both at Dundalk and Lingfield. The last of those Lingfield efforts was when he won in maiden company over 7f. He stayed on well that day and gave indications that he’d stay this mile trip, especially as he isn’t really bred to do, so it’s quite encouraging. That maiden victory has worked out well as he finished in front of a horse now rated 80, and the third home has gone on to be rated in the 90’s over sprint trips. He was last seen when running on turf back in April over 6f. That distance was too sharp for him and he never got involved, especially as it was a typical competitive, big-field Irish handicap and it’s easily excused. Although drawn wide and coming off an absence, he’s joined David Elsworth who set out a hat-trick of winners on Saturday. The mile trip is another unknown as he only raced over it once when on debut at Dundalk. He looked to stay it then and will have surely strengthened up since, thus enhancing the probability that he’ll stay. That maiden has worked out well so it was seemingly no fluke. I think there’s a little bit of scope about him and he should be able to capitalise on a mark of 79 at some point in the very near future, whether it’s today is another story as this is a competitive enough heat and he may not be fully fit. That being said, it’s his trainers only entry today and Dane O’Neill comes from Bath for this one ride, which is a pointer in itself. 16/1 looks quite generous and although difficult to get too enthusiastic, I can see him running a big race. SOCIAL FORUM; 1pt EW @ 16/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 17:35 Carlisle VALENTINE’S GIFT is in my view quite well-handicapped as she has dropped 10lbs from her original allocated rating. I’m not exactly sure what her best trip actually is (neither do connections by the looks of her entries) but a stiff 6f could well be ideal and in this poor race, she should run well. The 3yo took time to get the hang of the racing game, especially after her first two runs were lacklustre efforts. The third however is what makes her of some interest as he stuck on very well from the rear in what was a fair Doncaster maiden over 6f. It was an eye-catching run and it didn’t go unnoticed by the handicapper, as she was given what seemed a quite steep rating of 65. Connections kept her to maidens and her next effort was a dismal one over 7f at Redcar, but it’s probable that she lost the race before it began as she was very excitable in the preliminaries. The handicapper dropped her 8lbs very quickly and she was last seen when running a fair race here at Carlisle over a mile. She stuck on at the one-pace that day but I feel on that run she can be effective over a stiff 6f. Firstly she caught the eye with a mid-race move towards the front of affairs after been caught wide, she then stuck about towards the front for quite a while before fading. Today she definitely doesn’t have the speed to be towards the front of affairs, but having been dropped a further 3lbs; she can make her presence felt if held up towards the rear. There are plenty of prominent runners here so I’ll be surprised if the gallop is only modest and if running to a similar level than on her third start then she has every chance of going very close, especially as Neville Bycroft has been going well as of late. She’s overpriced at double figure odds. VALENTINE’S GIFT; 0.75pts EW @ 16/1 Bet365 (bog) ----- 17:50 Kempton WORDINESS debut in Handicap Company is best ignored having been held up in a slowly run race where it paid to be prominent. Prior to that he had shown enough ability to be competitive in this kind of race and although the handicapper has only dropped him 2lbs he has the assistance of a decent 7lb claimer and should run much better with a quicker pace assured. A Juddmonte cast-off, he showed a modicum of talent on his first two starts when beaten less than 10 lengths over 7f/8f trips. On his third start he improved a fair way for the step up to 1m2f, running into 5^th in a Windsor maiden that has worked out well. He finished seven lengths behind the winner and all those in front of him (some didn’t beat him far) have either won or finished second since. It was a decent effort too especially as he wasn’t given a hard time throughout and was obviously been saved for handicaps. Making his handicap debut off a mark of 70, he was supported at big prices (18/1 into 14/1) but never settled at all, mainly due to the slow pace. None of the held up horses stood a chance and I felt that Wordiness did well to finish 8 lengths off the winner from how the race panned out. Today’s contest is a little bit tougher with a few unexposed ones making a step-up in trip from powerful yards, such as Waltzing Cat and Tamara Bay. Even so, I feel there is some value with Wordiness at such a big price. With horses such as Mia Madonna, Double Duchess and Dare to Bare likely to set a decent tempo, which should help him to settle. I get the feeling that a thorough test will suit best and running off effectively a mark of 61 (Jockey rode one winner under rules, experienced on the flapping circuit in Ireland), he should get much closer especially after the promise he showed in his first three starts. WORDINESS; 1pt EW @ 25/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 20:50 Kempton TOMMY TIGER comes from a yard what knows the time of day and I think the application of blinkers should bring about some improvement. If so, he should be much better than a mark of 49 and can pick a race of this stature up. Being fair, he’s only shown genuine signs of ability once and that were over this trip at Yarmouth, when unlucky not to finish much closer (denied a clear-run). That effort was off 4lbs higher than his current mark so a replication would see him go well. His two subsequent efforts have been more disappointing, finishing tailed off at Bath (too bad to be true) and then when upped in trip to 1m6f at Nottingham. It wasn’t as bad a effort as it seems as I think he just didn’t stay, and he looked like a horse who doesn’t quite put it all in when asked for an effort. In that respect the application of blinkers is a positive, alongside the drop in trip could show him in a different light. It’s a poor race with Stuart Williams and Toby Atkinson only here for this one to run, so that may be a pointer. It’s likely that the market close to the off will tell the full story to his chances but he seems a type that should be up to winning a race at this lowly level as he’s a big, powerful sort. It may be that he’s just useless but I’ll definitely give him another chance to prove that description wrong. TOMMY TIGER; 1.25pts @ 5/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Lars Racing Thread 19:35 Carlisle SHARP RELIEF should be odds-on in my opinion after a decisive success over a little bit further than this 19 days ago. The drop in trip is unlikely to be too much of an inconvenience and in such a weak race; I’ll be extremely surprised if he doesn’t go in again. The Hughie Morrison trained 3yo made a big improvement on her first try in Handicap Company over 1m6f. She travelled really well and picked up in tasking fashion and looked much better than a horse rated 65. The runner-up in that race has gone on to finish second in another contest so it obviously wasn’t a bad race at all for the grade. She still looks well-handicapped off this revised mark of 6lbs higher as I feel she could be a player in races off a mark in the low 70’s at least. The drop in trip could be a factor to oppose her but I don’t think it’ll be much of a problem as she travelled well all race last time and the stiff Carlisle track will be able to compensate somewhat. Hughie Morrison is in good form at the moment and Paul Hanagan’s booking is another positive. I feel she won’t have to perform to her best to win today as it’s a decisively weak race with only Royal Bonsai a challenger, but he is fairly modest at best. Joe Rocco may improve for the step up in trip on handicap debut but has shown very little so far. My selection should be around the 10/11 mark, so I’ll happily take the 11/8 on offer. SHARP RELIEF; 2.5pts @ 11/8 William Hill (bog)

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