DyslexicMe Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Hi all, I'll be putting a draw system I've been betting on since the beginning of last season. The back testing and last seasons actual live investing have proven to be really good. The system itself looks like this with the back testing with an overall ROI of 34% 0708 77 45.45 1.92 0 0 0 £374.00 £4.86 48.57% 0809 88 38.64 1.84 0 0 0 £231.89 £2.64 26.35% 0910 62 46.77 1.73 0 0 0 £352.70 £5.69 56.89% 1011 89 33.71 1.87 0 0 0 £122.60 £1.38 13.78% On a standard level £10 bet Note that is dipped in season 1011 this happened in the Spanish and Scottish leagues. Particularly the Scottish league over the last quarter of the season. Putting this down to the randomness of football is my thoughts currently but watching carefully all leagues involved particularly the above mentioned. During the 4 seasons the longest losing streak was 5 weeks but soon recovering. I'll start to post Selections and results with a running profit and loss using a level staking plan of £10. Without giving too much away the system looks at the overall performance of both teams and goal scoring. Quite crude really but don't want to give lots away as reading other posts bookie trawl these pages regular. I think its ready to be used a real system so will post Thursday for weekend and Monday fixtures and Sunday for mid week if that's ok. Worth saying: It also makes a reasonable amount of profit as a under 2.5 system but I have better and if this goes well will post that as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Hello, Dislexic, :hope with your strategy, 34% ROI is admirable achievement! I think I'll watch it, as it sounds interesting. I tried several times to develop a strategy to bet on draws, usually involving system bets (3 or 4 folds out of 5 to 7 selections, or sometimes even more), but failed. Last couple of seasons I noticed that strategies of backing home team DNB or laying away team produced significant amount of draws, i.e., higher strike rate of draws than when I try straight picking the draw, so I tried to find a connection between selection processes for those two strategies, but it seemed there wasn't one. If you like strolling through archives, you may find interesting and useful threads of another member, Otium, who conducted his draw strategy throughout several seasons: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/4-draws-returns-88243/ http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/4-draws-75289/ http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/four-draws-needed-43537/ Your table is missing captions, so would you, please, explain what do columns represent? I think I can guess some of them, but it's better to know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Hi Froment, A bit forgetful sorry about the headings Here's the figures with the headings. Period Bets Strike Rate Avg Odds Ignore PL PL/Bet ROI 0708 77 45.45 1.92 0 0 0 £374.00 £4.86 48.57% 0809 88 38.64 1.84 0 0 0 £231.89 £2.64 26.35% 0910 62 46.77 1.73 0 0 0 £352.70 £5.69 56.89% 1011 89 33.71 1.87 0 0 0 £122.60 £1.38 13.78% The ignore part was to do with the min and max odds but don't do anything with them. Second time lucky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Errrm, when I said I could guess columns, it was mostly fourth column that puzzled me; now you say it's average odds; you mention live investing in your very first paragraph, so I suppose you place your bets when odds for draw drop to that level, which should be somewhere around 70th minute of the match. But then, I don't understand how there is a profit with those odds at strike rate of only 33 to 46%? I supposed it was level stakes, but now it seems it must be some other staking? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Froment, I was messing around with the calcs the other night and have mashed up the average odds, I start this again. Got a bit carried away and didn't do a final check sorry about that. I'll show some of the fixtures it picked last season as well. It not betting within the game at all it usually Thursday/Friday for Saturday fixtures. Sorry again for messing this up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting No problems, mate! I'm just curious, as this sounds interesting; fix your calculations and start whenever you can! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Hi Froment, Here's the amended Table, sorry again with the mess of average odds. I put the last 3 fixtures it picked. I'll put more later but better go out with my partner to hospital for the baby scan otherwise she'll probably never speak to me again Period Bets Strike Rate Avg Odds Ignore PL PL/Bet ROI 0708 77 45.45 3.25 0 0 0 £374.00 £4.86 48.57% 0809 88 38.64 3.26 0 0 0 £231.89 £2.64 26.35% 0910 62 46.77 3.34 0 0 0 £352.70 £5.69 56.89% 1011 89 33.71 3.37 0 0 0 £122.60 £1.38 13.78% Last 3 matches it picked up 2 lost 29/05/11Brest 0 - 2 Toulouse odds at 3.1 - LOST 22/05/11Newcastle 3 - 3 West Brom odds at 3.5 - WON 21/05/11Rennes 0 - 2 Nancy odds at 3.4 – LOST I'll put a full run down of fixtures it picked for last season when I get back this evening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Thanks for efforts, Dislexic! :ok When you said today you would put a full list, I first thought to write you not to do it, as past results are not guarantee for future success (and exactly these days we have here another thread where poster boosts his past performance, and was warned that thread must start from zero, no past results are relevant), but then I was curious to see winning and losing streaks, so I didn't write it; well, this is impressive records; now all that you need to do is to repeat the same success again! :ok I'm just wondering, since you managed to increase the bank more than 100 times, wouldn't it be better to revise stakes at some step - to increase stake for each 100 or 200 units banked, or to use fixed percentage? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Completely agree back tests don't give any guarantee for future. Im actually a bit new(about 2 years really creating good systems, well think good anyway) to the gambling so my principle was if it performs well on a boring staking plan then it should perform even better on more aggressive plan. Also takes me a bit longer to put a theory behind my systems I don't want a white socks Monday system if you get my drift My theory behind this and any other systems the little biased on the ROI as possible. Completely agree it would suite a better staking plan. Maybe Froment you could point me in the right direction ;)Thanks for your input Froment much appreciated from a newbie who wasn't too sure to post this system or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting I'm afraid your strike rate will go downhill if I start pointing you in right direction... :rollin When it comes to the draws, my strategy is less elegant; in fact, it may be called a brute force. To pick a draw, one looks for balanced teams, in terms of recent performance, motivation, missing players, etc., and you cannot say draw is won untill very last blow of the whistle - a goal may come in when no-one expects; that's why I think draws, in comparison to all other markets, include the highest portion of luck, and that's why I have been interested in draw strategies (more out of curiosity, than to really use them) - how do people decide which teams are really balanced, and there won't be that tiny effort from one team which makes difference. So, I usually don't pick a match or two from each league, but I concentrate on a single league at a single round: I throw away one or two matches where there is a clear favourite, one or two matches where both teams have poor recent form or lot of injuries, and one or two matches on "gut feeling" or something else - strange odds movement, etc.; so, there remains 5 to 8 matches, and I play 3 or 4 folds on draw in those matches. As for staking, beware of too aggresive plan; there are two streaks of 6 and 7 losing bets in a row, so I think something higher than 5% would seriously damage the bank (for example, at 5%, your bank would go from 1163 to 812, and with 10% you go to 556 units, less than half of the bank). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting I think its ready to be used a real system so will post Thursday for weekend and Monday fixtures and Sunday for mid week if that's ok. looking forward to your picks ;) the system seems promising, although I'd like to know some more details about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Re: Value draw betting By the way I tend not to go above 2% of my bankroll on one bet I admit it's quite small, but it prevents me from steaming and makes it possible to cover for a losing streak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Hi all been a long time probably got over excited before 2 months before the season started anyhow here is the first tip of the season. I'll be using a starting bank £200 and a staking plan of £10 level per bet. Previous Bank : £200 Current Bank : £200 Match: Sat 20th Aug Aberdeen v Inverness C Tip: Draw Best Odds: 3.4 Betting Stake : £10 :hope Lets hope its a good season. I'll post results at latest 2 days after the match and will be giving bets mid week and weekends if thats ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Re: Value draw betting DM, a very impressive set of results so far. I like backing the draw too, so I shall definitely be taking a keen interest in your progress. Good luck for the coming season :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Not the best start to the season Match: Sat 20th Aug Aberdeen v Inverness C Result: Home win P/L: -£10 Previous Bank : £200 Current Bank : £190 If any mid weeks games are picked will post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Hi DyslexicMe Firstly, the best of luck in the world. It's very difficult to devise a system to trap draws. I've got one running here called The Major League Soccer System. If you have achieved a Return On Investment of around 34 % and can replicate anywhere near to that again, that would be tremendous. :okWhen we remind ourselves that the banks pay 4 or 5 % interest, if someone could show me a safe system giving an ROI of 15 %, I would rip their arm off. Don't be disheartened by your first result. If you have a sound system, then it should be able to withstand to a run of poor results. GOOD LUCK.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Cheers Maybe for the kind supportive words, The system hasn't picked any mid week games unfortunately. Will post any Games for the weekend tomorrow:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Here's the next tip Previous Bank : £200 Current Bank : £190 Match: Sun 28th Aug Newcastle v Fulham Tip: Draw Best odds: 3.4 Betting Stake : £10 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garyfinny Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Good luck with this mate. I was thinking about trialling something with draws this season as well - your results look very encouraging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Match: Sun 28th Aug Newcastle v Fulham Result: Home win P/L: -£10 Previous Bank : £190 Current Bank : £180 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Re: Value draw betting No mid week games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: Value draw betting No fixtures mdweek sorry didn't say about the previous weekend but none then either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Here's the next tip Previous Bank : £180 Current Bank : £170 Match: Sat 10th Sep Cambridge v Forest Green Tip: Draw Best odds: 3.48 Betting Stake : £10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: Value draw betting First win :0 Previous Bank: £170 P/L: 24.80 Match: Sat 10th Sep Cambridge v Forest Green Result: Draw( 1 - 1) Current: 204.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Previous Bank : £204.80 Current Bank : £164.80 (Includes taking away £10 stake for each bet) Date Fixture Odds Tips Stake Sat 17th Sep Stockport v Grimsby 3.49 Draw £10 Sat 17th Sep Toulouse v Bordeaux 3.2 Draw £10 Sun 18th Sep Lyon v Marseille 3.38 Draw £10 Mon 19th Sep Ipswich v Coventry 3.57 Draw £10 Looks like the system is picking more fixtures now :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyslexicMe Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Value draw betting Previous Bank : £204.80 Current Bank : £164.80 Date Fixture odds Tips Stake Sat 17th Sep Stockport v Grimsby 3.49 Result:Home Win (2:0) Sat 17th Sep Toulouse v Bordeaux 3.2 Result:Home Win (3:2) Sun 18th Sep Lyon v Marseille 3.38 Result:Home Win (2:0) Mon 19th Sep Ipswich v Coventry 3.57 Result:Home Win (3:0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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