Flat Racing; Monday 30th May

[Lars]

16:10 Redcar Breakheart is allegedly a difficult horse to get fit, but he seems to have slowly come to the boil this season and looks a huge price in this top quality handicap. Michael Dods runner has had three starts to date this season, and has improved in each of them so far. He was badly in need of the run on his first start at Doncaster, travelling fairly well before running out of gas. He stepped up on that effort two weeks later at the same track, running into 4^th. He finished 2.5 lengths behind Arlequin, who he re-opposes today, with a 5lb pull in Breakheart’s favour. The selections last run, at Newmarket was his best for some time, even though he was beaten 6 lengths. That was behind Green Destiny, who looks an incredibly tidy prospect and a Group horse in the making. Breakheart became slightly outpaced over the 9f trip, before finishing with a late rattle, and did well to come from as so far back as he did. One potential concern for a casual onlooker would be that Breakheart hasn’t won in 8 starts. That being said, he was raced in contests a little stronger than he races in today, such as the Cambridgeshire and The Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury. These races were much tougher than today’s, and he still acquitted himself well. From memory of getting a look at him on that day at Newbury, he looked the sort to improve as a 4yo, and from his performances this season, today may be the day. A galloping track like Redcar should suit, and obviously Michael Dods believes that too, as he has a very competent record round here (LSP of +£34.88). There’s quite a few dangers in this race, including Sarsarr. I’m not sure about how well handicapped he is, and I’m a bit perplexed at the jockey booking of Tony Culhane. Sirvino has dropped to a fair mark now, but I feel he’ll need a stronger pace or further. Mirrored won well last time, but he’s a complete nutter and his attitude is questionable, a comment that can also be applied to Tom Tate’s entry. I’m not too keen on Fahey’s chance, especially as Paul Hanagan has gone to Carlisle. Merchant of Dubai may be too high in the weights still, while the two Mark Johnston runners have chances on paper, but I cannot catch him right and I’ll oppose. Pendragon may be the biggest danger, running on well last time over a trip too sharp, and he’ll come on for that. He may just run into a couple too good, and I’m hoping that one is Breakheart. A price of 15/2 seems too big for a horse that is almost definitely going to be fully fit and is likely to enjoy the track. He seems fairly weighted, especially as on other occasions the handicapper would have put him up a couple of lbs for the Newmarket effort, and of course, Freddie Tylicki is a top rider. This is a nice race, but with that considered, I’m really keen on the chances of Breakheart to register his first win in almost a year. Breakheart; 3pts Win @ 15/2 Paddy Power (bog)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May typical rainy bank holiday ........2.30 chep this looks a weak race and atia 4/1 generally looks a strong fav to take this ,recorded a 118 on the clock lto and has been dropped 1lb in the hcap as a result of finishing 3rd that day which seems generous . 4/1 is not a bad price so 2 pts win for me