Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

[zoolander]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Newmarket 3:10 Happy Today 200-1 BET365(BOG) 0.5pts EW I think Brian Meehans horse has been overlooked a bit here, not even mentioned as a contender. Has won over a mile on GF ground obviously not at this level but his close second behind Dordogne over 9f here two weeks ago in a class 1 caught my eye. Travelled well and looked a serious contender but found nothing the last stretch, the mile will be ideal for him today. He has the benefit over most of having a recent run and course experience which may be crucial. Has decent place claims as i cant see much in it behind Frankel.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Good luck with that one Zoo :hope for ya. 16:00 HANDICAP 5f Pending Tabaret @ 12/1 (GP) Win or E/W 19:45 HANDICAP (0-90) 6f Won this last year and can do it again off current mark . Trainer and jock are a great combo.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 2000 GUINEAS - SATURDAY NEWMARKET 1/14 Fav 13/14 had won a race (last years winner hadnt run before) 11/14 SP between 7/2 - 11/1 10/14 Winner LTO 11/14 Season debut 12/14 2 or more runs 5/14 Distance winner 8/14 Non distance winner 4/14 Course winner RPR 118-131 last 10 winners Last years 1st time out winner @ 33/1 messed up the stats a bit The best animal (last years leading 2yo) coming into this race doesnt always win, hence the poor fav stats. The profile i think here is 11/1 under, 2 or more runs, seasonal debut, stepping up in trip, RPR 118-131, win or place LTO and note those that won at HQ Fury meets all those trends although the SP likely to be higher than 11/1 Pathfork 2nd fav here today is another to take on the favourite Lets have those 2 against the field today Fury 16/1 >Bet365 0.25pts ew Pathfork 7/1 [url=http://forum.punterslounge.com/autolink.php?id=36&script=showthread&forumid=2]>Bet365 0.5pts win

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 2.00 Newmarket I have backed BRICK RED a number of times and was told to keep an eye out for this one at this meeting. Connections would have preferred rain to soften the ground up a bit however hopefuly the extra 1f will help it today also. If the ground had been god or worse i would be having a bigger bet but today will keep to a 0.5pt win stake at 14/1 Bet365 My other selection for the race is Al Zarooni's horse NAMECHECK and the booking of M Barzalona is significant with the jockey already making a great impact in the short time he has ridden here. The horse only raced once as a 3yo and would have to be respected here in a clas 2 handicap as the horse would have been considered as a possible group horse. Will stay further than this also, so no worries over the trip. Bets Namecheck 0.5pts win 12/1 >Bet365 Brick Red 0.5pts win 14/1 >Bet365

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Doncaster 5.35 - Sharakti Loves good to firm and gets the trip well. Won a 3 runner affair last time out and has form with Frontline Phantom but that out of the handicap and effectively up about 11lb for a cosy win. Sharakti has won off 64 and 67 and carries 6lb penalty today. Course and distance winner too. Doncaster 6.05 - Bahia Emerald 95,000 Guineas purchase and looks to be a match between this and Spinatrix. Raceed on good to firm already and trainer has a good record here. Spinatrix raced here and stayed on over 6f, might want further. Doncaster 6.40 - Bannock Always look out for Johnston horses debuting at Donny and De Sousa takes the ride. Trainers horses running fairly well at the minute and danger looks to be Springleaf, that one benefit of a run already. Doncaster 7.10 - Trade Storm Tried and failed in listed and group company, back down to class 3 conditions race today against an odds on favourite. Lot to like about how it won its maiden over 7f on good to firm ground. Highest rated in the race but seasonal debut. Doncaster 7.45 - Desert Poppy/Diman Waters Swinburn sends just the one horse for this race and form read 1-2-2-1-2-1 until meeting soft ground and going from 79 rating to 90 rating. Races off 88 today but looks a decent sort and knows how to win. Has won over 6f and won on good to firm. Diman Waters was a weak 2 yr old and has not yet won over 6f but started the season well last year. Most form is at 5f but likes fast ground. Hoping it can get the extra furlong, doubts about trip factored into the price. Doncaster 8.15 - Old Hundred Races off 79 and was 2nd to Chilly Filly off 74. That horse now rated much higher than that and this horse won over 2m last time out on aw surface at Kempton. Main danger could be Nave but doubts if that stays. The 2nd mentioned was at this track on good to firm.

[cc75]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 4.20 Newmarket: Cadeaux Pearl 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 VC BOG Type of horse Dandy Nicholls does well with and on first run for the trainer may be worth chancing at decent odds. Was a flop in a 5f listed race for Hannon when last seen but with the 'sprint king' Nicholls and based on maiden form, may prove quite well handicapped returned to what may be ideal conditions over 6f on rattling fast ground. Would be no surprise to see the horse go close with Billy Cray good for his additional 3lbs claim.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April FURY 3.10 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Needs to find quite a bit with the favourite, but not with the others and open to any amount of improvement. Only needs the favourtie to have an off day and should be able to go close. The trip and ground should be fine and with a fast run race he should go well at decent odds.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Going to have a small e/w punt on Saamidd. Big price if you can forgive his Dewhurst run. Just hoping the better ground will bring him back to his best and sneak into the frame. Dettori, despite not being on the horse, said Saamidd e/w would be his bet in the race, so that will do for me.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Well done with Tangerine Trees, Punterpete :ok

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Goodwood 17:40
Selection	Barnum (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	30/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 10.00
Reasoning	Exchanged owners after LTO. Previously with Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum and now with Dr Marwan Koukash for £25,000 at Docaster earlier in the month. Raced 4 times this year and progressed well. 7th, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd are his finishing positions. Still with the same trainer Mark Johnston so there is not much change. Johnston for the owner must be followed. Together, they have won 6 from 15 runs for a strike rate of 40% with the 3yo's going 4 from 8 (50%).

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April onto tonight 745 Doncaster STAR ROVER stepped up to 6f tonight. David Evans 4yo is an accomplished sprinter Should be able to dictate on this fast ground and this looks an ideal opportunity for the horse to finally win over 6f. Come down the weights now and CAthy Gannon rides her fair share of winners. 0.75pts @ 20/1 Bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 7.45 Doncaster - 1pt win Desert Poppy @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) One of the better races of the Doncaster card, in which I can avoid quite a few of the runners. Internationaldebut looks set for another big run, but hasn't won for 2 years, and wouldn't be worth big stakes. Cape Vale has never won off a mark this high, and the track isn't sure to suit. Enderby Spirit has a break to overcome, Medici Time ran well last time but often does fresh and remains on a stiff mark. Whozthecat hasn't beaten a rival in 2 runs over 6f. They are just some of the more fancied rivals. Desert Poppy had a successful season last summer, notching up her 2nd and 3rd successes from a total of 10 runs. Her runs on the all-weather or quick turf read 62122121. Was hiked up the weights for an easy win at Newbury where she beat Flouncing by 4 1/2l. That horse has been consistent in handicaps, and despite that race not being up to a great deal, she couldn't have done it much more decisively. 2 runs since haven't been great, but these came on unsuited soft ground, and can return to winning ways tonight on her seasonal reappearance. She won first time out last season at Windsor and is dropped 2lbs in the weights today. Walter Swinburn's horses are in good order with form figures of 53168132250 in the last 14 days, and shows an impressive record at Doncaster with a 17% strike rate from 29 runners, and a level stakes profit of £26.75.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Doncaster 19:45
Selection	Diman Waters (w/o Internationaldebut ) (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	30/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 10.01
Reasoning	Off for 252 days but raced in tough courses last year and should handle this track well. He's had 12 runs winning once, 5-time second place finisher, and 3rd once. His 2010 Form reads 2122621(dq)3. The last two runs were on Sfot going. Prefers the quicker ground of today. Has a chance if able to build on last years form. Yard is in good form so he might have this ready. E J Alston has 2 winners from his last 2 runners and sends just one for today.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Doncaster 19:45
Selection	Internationaldebut
Strength	10/10
Date	30/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 5.00
Reasoning	Finished 2nd in two starts this year. LTO was at Pontefract over 6f Class 2. He was held up in mid-division and headway on outer over 1f out, kept on to take 2nd inside final furlong. T D Barron's Flipando was the winner by 3/4 legnths and he won another Class 2 race two runs before beating the selection. Pontefarct is not an easy track to finish the way he did and that is a good sign for today. The 6yo had a tag of 225,000euros and only made £63,764 so far so I think they have this race targeted.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Doncaster 19:45
Selection	Desert Poppy (w/o Internationaldebut) (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	30/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 6.00
Reasoning	Won 3 and finished 2nd in 10 career starts. His last two runs was for 5th and 6th but they are his only runs on Soft going. Others runs had quicker going and he did best on those. The ground today goes into his favor. He won his reappearance run last year at Windsor last July from being off since November 2009. His lifetime form reads 621221256. He is also the only entry in the card from trainer Walter Swinburn.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Doncaster 20:15
Selection	Old Hundred
Strength	10/10
Date	30/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 3.50
Reasoning	Won 2m handicap at Kempton Park to end his 2010. He placed in 3 of his first 6 starts before that winning run. He is well bred by the owner/breeder Lael Stable. The selection is closely related to top-class George Washington (by Danehill), multiple 6f-1m winner at 2-3 inc. 2,000 Guineas, & half-brother to Grandera, multiple 7-11f winner at 2-5 inc. Irish Champion, & 2 other winners; dam useful 12f winner at 3 in France. Pat Cosgrave is booked again like LTO. His lifetime form with the horse is 2nd, 3rd, 1st. The seletion have not raced since Sepmtember but trainer J R Fanshawe proved that he has this ready. His last two runners ran yesterday and they finished 1st and 2nd. The winner (7f) was off since July and the 2nd (12f) since October.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

Sport	Ice Hockey
Event	Doncaster 20:15
Selection	Nave (w/o Old Hundred)
Strength	10/10
Date	30/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 3.25
Reasoning	No impression late in the LTO but it was his first time at the trip.; Mark Johnston horses usually improve after trying something new and this is a good time to catch the runner. HIs form before LTO was respetable at 3 wins out of 10 turf runs and 1 2nd and 3 mroe thirds. The track will suit him well to. Also faced tougher rivals. Getting it from the front is likely the plan for today.

[Tull]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Well done for those who flagged up some winners today. Some cracking prices as well:clap

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

Doncaster 5.35 - Sharakti Loves good to firm and gets the trip well. Won a 3 runner affair last time out and has form with Frontline Phantom but that out of the handicap and effectively up about 11lb for a cosy win. Sharakti has won off 64 and 67 and carries 6lb penalty today. Course and distance winner too. 2nd :( Doncaster 6.05 - Bahia Emerald 95,000 Guineas purchase and looks to be a match between this and Spinatrix. Raceed on good to firm already and trainer has a good record here. Spinatrix raced here and stayed on over 6f, might want further. 1st :) Doncaster 6.40 - Bannock Always look out for Johnston horses debuting at Donny and De Sousa takes the ride. Trainers horses running fairly well at the minute and danger looks to be Springleaf, that one benefit of a run already. 2nd :( Doncaster 7.10 - Trade Storm Tried and failed in listed and group company, back down to class 3 conditions race today against an odds on favourite. Lot to like about how it won its maiden over 7f on good to firm ground. Highest rated in the race but seasonal debut. 1st :) Doncaster 7.45 - Desert Poppy/Diman Waters Swinburn sends just the one horse for this race and form read 1-2-2-1-2-1 until meeting soft ground and going from 79 rating to 90 rating. Races off 88 today but looks a decent sort and knows how to win. Has won over 6f and won on good to firm. Diman Waters was a weak 2 yr old and has not yet won over 6f but started the season well last year. Most form is at 5f but likes fast ground. Hoping it can get the extra furlong, doubts about trip factored into the price. :( Doncaster 8.15 - Old Hundred Races off 79 and was 2nd to Chilly Filly off 74. That horse now rated much higher than that and this horse won over 2m last time out on aw surface at Kempton. Main danger could be Nave but doubts if that stays. The 2nd mentioned was at this track on good to firm. 1st :)

3 winners, 2 seconds and managed to get a 1-3 favourite turned over by a much better horse in Trade Storm. Good evening of racing at Donny tonight and will be keeping an eye on Bahia Emerald, Bannock, Trade Storm and Old Hundred in the future. Bahia Emerald was top class and he couldn't pull it up after the line, still full of running and better than the bare margin of the win for sure. Bannock did really well for a debutant and will come on for that experience, seemed to be leaning into the other horse a bit towards the last half furlong, not sure if jockey had whip in wrong hand, need to see a replay. Trade Storm was good too, Dazzler sat with a double handful and when he said go the horse went and took the race well. Not sure Nave stays 1m6f, they looked to go off a crawl, it was needing the line and Old Hundred had won over 2m and stayed on well best of all to win well, looks a good staying sort, knew how to get the win when asked to go clear.