Jump to content

The Truth Behind Blackjack


Jezza

Recommended Posts

Well I have been asked by a couple of people on MSN about this ever popular casino game and since there are so many myths/rumours about this game and so much TOTAL PISH spouted at casino tables by 99.9% of punters I thought I would run through a guide for the informed PL gambler ;) I am sure any of you reading this know how to play or have played before be it online or for real so I will skip a beginners introduction and go into the main stuff, however if anyone wants any of the rules clarified please feel free to ask. The first, and most important by far, rule of blackjack is the rule of basic strategy. Many years ago computer intensive research was done onto the exact mathematically correct way to play blackjack. For every single rule variation and for every single set of players cards vs dealer up card. Most people play a fair approximation of this at the table but it is exceptionally rare to find someone who plays it perfectly. When you consider not following the basic strategy is just costing you money in the long run it seems stupid to not know it but many people assume they know best or that other people are the source of their losses and discount their play. The BS changes from rule variation to rule variation - one for british blackjack play can be found here http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/bjeurope.html If you study it you will see there are some ones that seem initially wrong. Hitting a soft 18 v a dealer 9 upcard will always bring moans from others around you but trust me you will do better in the long run doing this than doing what everyone else is doing and standing. You will see the vast majority of the time you have to hit stiffs against good dealer upcards also. You MUST do this - it is the mathematically correct play. Sure, sometimes you would have won by standing or whatever (BS will be wrong a hefty amount of the time) but in the long run you are making the best gamble with your money by hitting and not standing - and will see the best return. Every time you go on a hunch and decide to do something different you are costing yourself money - if you are going to gamble on BJ a lot then you need to learn it. You will see on the wizards site he gives the mathematical expectations for playing perfectly under different rules. For the UK you are looking at -0.6% which certainly means you will lose in the long run but it is a lot better than a bookies overround of 7% or betfairs 5% commission charge. Remember tho you you have to take the cumulitive value of all your bets to work out your expected loss (IE taking 100 quid to the casino does not mean an expected loss of 60p....if you were to make 10,000 1 pound bets with that 100 quid then your expected loss would be 60 quid) and that like all gambling it is a game of high variance. You will lose big some nights, win big on others and break even occasionly it is just in the long run you will see your results tending towards that -0.6% of total money staked. It is possible in america to find games that have +ve expectation playing BS. Myths in blackjack Oh Dear. There are a LOT of these. By far and away the most common is seeing someone play differently from how would have and "lose" you your bet. Well I have something to say to everyone who says that to you or if you have ever said that to anyone else. SHUT THE FCUK UP :o. Yes, it is highly irritating to see someone hit their 16 V 6 at the end of the table and cause the dealer to make a hand when he would have gone over but he is JUST AS LIKELY TO HELP YOU AS TO HINDER YOU and in the long run he will have not have affected you at all. The problem is you notice it a lot more when you are hindered and naturally it makes you angry inside, when you win due to bad play you tend not to make a mental note of it. All the rest of the players are doing at your table is introducing a bit more of a headache into your play but in the long run it has absolutely no effect on your outcomes. "Taking cards to help me/you/thedealer" another myth whereby the table trys to predict the next card and leave the picture for somenes double/take the picture away from the dealers ace/fcuk knows what you might as well be a bunch of women making all decisions "by committe". This is again all rubbish, do not be persuaded it was you who caused the dealer to get a blackjack by hitting your 15 V A and drawing a 6 or lost someones double by hitting 12 v 3 and pulling a picture - just stick to BS and ignore (politely I would hope - maybe not for GETT1N) what others say. As you can see if you learn to ignore what the other players do/their whines and learn the basic strategy you can have a lot of fun playing what is not a bad gamble (and although you will lose a little it will be not nearly as much as roulette etc) - if you go to vegas you can enjoy some much better rule variations and of course all the comps etc that go with it. Card Counting -------------- This is the next level of blackjack - there has been book after book after book written on the subject, some good some bad. Just about every element has been explored from shuffle tracking to ace sequencing to wrap arounds on +ve counts to deckloading etc etc. I wont bother with all of that here (although feel free to ask) but I will try to give the basics of card counting. It should be noted that before we start a world class card counter works VERY hard for what is a small reward - you will do much better learning to play poker well or even working in mcdonalds probably but still it is good to turn the tables on the house once in a while ;) As you have seen when you play basic strategy to get the house edge down to a small level, easily the best gamble in the casino. Well the fact of the matter is although the house edge does level out to this quoted figure you have in the long run, it is a volatile thing changing slightly as each card leaves the shoe. Basically as there are more 10s and Aces left in the cards still to play then the house advantage goes down whereas if they are all gone and only small cards remain, the house advantage goes up. This is for a number of reasons including : with many 10s left to play the dealer is more likely to go bust drawing on a stiff hand than usual and it is more likely you will hit one on a double down. It is also more likely a blackjack will appear and although it is equally as likely they dealer will get one, when you get one you get that super 3/2 payout bonus which is a big thing for the players maths. A card counter tracks the ratio of small cards to big cards in what is left to come out and bets large when the going is good, and small when the going is bad. Essentially he is looking for the value bet and going in big style when he sees it! Card counting systems work by assigning a number value to different ranks of cards and then the counter must keep a running count in his head as the hands are dealt. So, for example - A simple system might assign a value of +1 to cards 3,4,5,6 and -1 to all ten valued cards (Ignoring the rest). The counter will start at zero and everytime he sees a 345 or 6 he adds 1 to his count and every time a ten value comes along he takes away 1. As he progresses further and further into the shoe he will find fluctuations where the count becomes exceptionally positive or negative. It is positive fluctuations he is looking for. When you get a high +ve count it means the deck is rich in 10s still to come - a good time for the player. When it becomes rich enough the house advantage has infact disappeared and the basic strategy player has an ADVANTAGE over the casino. It is at these times the counter must bet a lot larger than he usually does to take advantage of it and make his money. A big -ve count means the house advantage is a lot larger than usual and now might be a good time to take a break/go for a piss/beer or whatever. The most complex (professional) counting systems assign values to all the cards and have many grades (+1 +2 +3 and -2 and -1 for example) these game a slightly larger edge at the crucial times than the simpler system. It should be noted that even at the absolute best times for a counter you will not be getting more than about a 0.7% advantage - this is pretty crappy and not really worth all the effort however it is a true value bet and one which people have made millions in the past from. Counters must also apply a divisor to their count to reflect the number of decks left to play. A count of +6 is obviously better with only 1 deck left to come out than it is with 5. Usually this will be along the lines of dividing the count by the amount of decks left (or half decks for complex counts). This gives what is called the TRUE count. A true count of +2 or more is usually time for a big bet. (I once got a true count of +18 in a glasgow casino - placing three bets of 50 quid I was not surprised to be dealt 20 20 20 however the dealers A up left me knowing my fate was sealed :o ). Another tactic which counters can use is to deviate form basic strategy when the count is high or low. This includes things like standing 12 v 3 instead of the usual hit when there are a lot of 10s left to come out or hitting 12 v 4 instead of standing when there are less 10s and more small cards than usual. These are even more tables to learn if you are interested and exist for all good counting systems. I would not recommend anyone goes into a casino and trys card counting - you will probably find yourself losing fast as even someone who can do it perfectly loses a big proportion of the time but I hope it does help you with your online blackjack casino bonuses :) Any questions feel free to ask Jez (at 5am and tired so fcuk it my spelling and grammar will be bad but I will add to it later if there are any q's)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thread has more posts. To see them, you'll need to sign up or sign in.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...