Jump Racing SAt 16th April

[bowles10]

The highlight is the Scottish National at Ayr selections and analysis in here please of any of the jumps races on saturday

[Cal]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April Ayr 4:00: Russian War has a 7lb rise after winning at Aintree on Saturday, this looks a fair rise and he should go well after a drop in class with a less competitive edge to the race. If he recovers well, and seeing that he has been entered only a week after a great run at Aintree, the yard surely must fancy him to make it 2/2 and so do I. 15/8 win.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April 3.25 Ayr Scottish National Fancy a couple in this National. As with last week, out and out stayers should be considered as usual and a number of these have form over 4m. Last years 3rd NO PANIC lines up again and appeals as a cracking EW bet at 66/1 Skybet (1st 5 places). It runs off the same mark as last year when staying on for 3rd behind Merigo. At 8yo, it now fits the profile of the winner normaly aged between 8-10. Looking at its form, the best time to catch the horse is in the period March through to July. Borne out by these stats - 08 - 1-2-1-1-2 09 - 4-U-2-1-3-3 10 - 1-3-3-1-4 only once out of the top 4 in 16 attempts and that was unseating You couldnt wish for better stats than that compared with runs outside of the 5 month period reading: 07 - 6-6 08 - 7-3-3-9-3-2-U 09 - P-5-2-4-P-3-P 10 - 1-3-P-P-7-7 Bet No Panic 0.25pts EW 66/1 Skybet 1st 5 places (1/4 odds)

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April My 2nd bet for the National is POKER DE SIVOLA from Ferdy Murphys stable. I backed the horse to win the NAtional Hunt chase at the Chelt festival last year and was surprised to see the horse line up for the Cross Country chase this year. As its only been out twice and 1st run was typical Murphy running it over 2m completely inadequate trip getting beat over 56L!! I can only imagine he has had this race in mind for the horse and the cross country race was perhaps just another tune up to get it right knowing that the horse wouldnt have to jump the main course at Chelts before coming here. Bet POKER DE SIVOLA 0.5pts win 14/1 Bet365

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April 250 Ayr - Via Galilei 1pt EW @ 6/1 SJ A very competitive renewal of the grade 2 handicap Scottish Champion Hurdle. Many seem to have live chances here but I am opting for the selection who, although 4lbs out of the handicap here has been steadily rising in the weights through the season with a string of impressive performances. Effectively running off 139 here (with the 4lb added), this mark is in no way insurmountable based on his very good 3rd at Aintree off 135. Needs a strong galloping pace and with Hunterview, Overturn and Cockney Trucker all confirmed front runners, pace shouldnt be hard to come by. Hunterview and Overturn in particular could get caught in a battle up fonrt and set it up for someone coming off the pace and this is where my lad comes in here. Loves good ground and plenty scope for further improvement, should certainly go close here if giving his true running.

[yorkshire punter]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April

Ayr 4:00: Russian War has a 7lb rise after winning at Aintree on Saturday, this looks a fair rise and he should go well after a drop in class with a less competitive edge to the race. If he recovers well, and seeing that he has been entered only a week after a great run at Aintree, the yard surely must fancy him to make it 2/2 and so do I. 15/8 win.

have to agree with you Cal mate - has outstanding claims as does gordon elliott's only other runner on the card CHICAGO GREY in the big one, the scottish grand national at 325. took the NH chase at the festival in the style of a most progressive chaser and looks to have all the credentials to go well given its impressive jumping. its attractively weighted with just 10-9 and is proven over the trip. methinks the double could pay the best part of 20/1 at early prices and i'll have some of that sir:ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April 3:25 Ayr: Neptune Equester 1pt e/w 20/1 William Hill Neptune Equester like many here is out of the handicap, yet with Paul Gallagher taking off a handy five, he could be in the shake up. He has been running well in Grade Two hurdles, so has a touch of class about him. However, the key piece of form could be October last year when he won a Listed handicap at Wetherby staying on strongly to beat Qulinton and Mister McGoldrick. After that race his trainer is reported as saying he thought Neptune Equester might be an Eider type. So there is a good chance that Neptune Equester will enjoy this step up in trip. The going won't be a problem as he is three from five on this surface, and there is often a turn up in this race with horses wrong at the weights running well.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April 430 Ayr - Fred Bojangals 1pt EW @ 18/1 Hills Bit of a course specialist who has been round here on 3 occasions, all 3 of them last season when finishing 1,1,2 off marks of 103,112 and 123. The 123 mark interestingly was in this exact contest last season and is off the same mark again this season in a race which I wouldnt say is a massive improvement on what was here last year. Acts very well on good ground and on only 4 occasions has he run a chase over 2m, winning 3 and placing in the other. He tends not to stay much further but this is ideal. Based on his performance here last year and how well he goes at the track, I fail to see why he should be as big as 18/1 here and could definitely be involved at the business end if putting in a clean round.

[silver fox]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April I like Gone to Lunch as a decent Each Way bet for the Scottish National. He was well beaten last year when finishing second to Meringo but has c & d experience and has only had one race since then. That was in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham in March where he was never really in touch with the winner but did stay on well to finish 6th and would of been a good prep race. Best price at time of writing 22/1 with Bet365 paying first 5 home is too tempting for me to not have a little dabble.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April Ayr 3.25 Always Right 1pt win - 9/1 (antepost) Always Right 1pt win - 10/1 Tote Be There In Five 1pt win - 22/1 Ouzbeck 1pt win - 16/1 Chicago Grey 0.75pt win - 6/1 Lads Minella Four Star 0.25pt win - 14/1 Always Right has always been my main fancy for this race. James Revely did everything to save as much as possible lto and delivered him late. Won a lot easier than the winning margin suggests. In the end it didn't matter, because he's running 3lb out of the handicap now. I still think he's a 150ish horse and could also be a major player for Aintree next season. My 2nd fancy in the race is Be There In Five, who ran really well at Cheltenham off level weights with Beshabar and Chicago Grey. Will get 4lbs and 8lbs here and could be a lot closer to them this time. Certainly doesn't deserve to be such a big price and only a slight improvement will be enough to get him involved in the finish. Ouzbeck's season has been geared all winter towards this race and the Summer National (race he won last year). Wasn't put in the Cheltenham race behind Midnight Chase until late and had a recent run over hurdles to sharpen him up. Off only 5lb higher than his summer national win, he seems overpriced. Chicago Grey should confirm form with Beshabar despite 5lb difference and I'm saving my stake on him. Minella Four Star has really blossomed with Pipe this year and is also worth a small saver, because he could still have more to offer. 5pts staked on the race overall.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April SCOTISH NATIONAL Like the Fox i think GONE TO LUNCH will run another big race in this and it could well be third time lucky having finished 2nd the last two year. Hasn't won since 08 but has been fairly lightly raced since and deserves to pick up a big race like this imo. Well worthy of an e/w bet at around 20's with 5 places up for grabs. IRES DE BALME was a shock winner of this in 08 and could surprise again. Hasn't run a lot since obviously has had problems but if new trainer has it sorted could go well with victorious 08 jock on top! Have taken 120.00W 19P on BF. Will also have a win bet on POKER DE SIVOLA at 14's who has been trained for the race by shrewd trainer top jock on top. Ballyfitz would have been a e/w bet but makes too many jumping mistakes for me and wont getaway with it here imo. 5.05 I think the Irish trained horses will fight this out. POSH BIRD 14/1 who ran a cracker in Northern Ireland in the Ulster National has been poor since but has the cheek pieces to help today & CARSONTOWN BOY 10/1 good over hurdles still learning over the bigger fences but on a nice mark and has been a few quid for it. A win bet on each and a small RFC for me.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April Ayr 2.50 Nearby 0.75pt EW - 8/1 3rd in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, but carried a lot of weight. Better race here and will be off just 10-10. Should confirm form with Cockney Trucker and meets Via Galilei on better terms, so could reverse Aintree form. Sanctuaire has been a disappointment. Overturn and Mille Chief have quite a bit to carry. Hunterview is a big danger, but I don't think he deserves to be a 5/1 shot. Nearby seems to be the value bet in the race and the flat 2m on good ground are his conditions.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April Ayr 5.05 On His Own 1pt EW - 10/1 Highly tried in Champion Bumper and NH Chase on two consecutive festivals. Won his chase in January beating Nine De Sivola, but disappointing next time out at Wetherby. Didn't jump with fluency and will have to improve on this. I think the talented Paul Gallagher will get him jumping today and the handicap mark is very lenient. The only doubt for me is the sometimes erratic jumping, but off 115 with fantastic 5lb claimer on board I have to be on, because he's very well handicapped and could go close down in class today.

[Quackers]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April The one I'm backing in the national is beshabar. Ran a cracker at Cheltenham and I think this horse has a massive chance. Think this track will suit much better and hoping for a big run. Will probably be up with the pace which I like as well. 1 pt e/w beshabar 8/1 ladbrokes

[Quackers]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April

The one I'm backing in the national is beshabar. Ran a cracker at Cheltenham and I think this horse has a massive chance. Think this track will suit much better and hoping for a big run. Will probably be up with the pace which I like as well. 1 pt e/w beshabar 8/1 ladbrokes

:D

[Cal]

Re: Jump Racing SAt 16th April

Ayr 4:00: Russian War has a 7lb rise after winning at Aintree on Saturday, this looks a fair rise and he should go well after a drop in class with a less competitive edge to the race. If he recovers well, and seeing that he has been entered only a week after a great run at Aintree, the yard surely must fancy him to make it 2/2 and so do I. 15/8 win.

Great run, thought it was a good price.