Darts: Premier League Week 4

[kevshat]

Thursday 3 March 2011	Player 1	Draw	Player 2	BPP
	Jenkins, T v Whitlock, S (19:00 GMT)	3.5	5.7	1.83	100.66 %
	Webster, M v Lewis, A (19:40 GMT)	3.05	5.3	1.9	104.04 %
	Anderson, G v Wade, J (20:20 GMT)	1.65	5.9	4.5	99.78 %
	Van Barneveld, R v Taylor, P (21:00 GMT)	5.5	6	1.53	100.07 %

[kevshat]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4 Early couple for me. I've got my eye on some others in what I can see being a busy week for me. 6pts G.Anderson vs J.Wade - Over 7.5 180's Evs Coral I love this line. These two have had some belters on stage down the years and I think both their rhythms suit each other nicely. This should be closer than Anderson vs Webster last week but even that had 9 180's. Let's be honest Anderson could cover this on his own but Wade will contribute too. Big overs bet for me. 3pts R.Barneveld vs P.Taylor - Highest Checkout Over 122.5 10/11 Stan James Love this line too. Barney the checkout machine recently vs Taylor who loves a checkout to rub a rival's nose in it. Usually I'd look to have the 121 on my side but not at 4/6. I think we'll see a biggie in this match with both looking good over the last couple of weeks. Can't wait for this match or a 123+ checkout in it.

[gloryhunters]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4 OK my first punt in this forum. I haven't watched much darts since Taylor beat Bristow. However, a m8 in the bookies mention about this PL and so I thought why not investigate (broaden my betting opportunities). So I have got all the matches from the PL with average 3 dart throws relating to percentage winning the match, along with 180 percentage and checkout. I have also by player the distribution of having 3 dart averages and also thereast 6 maches. I then run a 50,000 simulation to get a probability under both using the last 6 matches or all their PL matches to work out the odds. So I go for Lewis at 1.9 at paddypower and Anderson at 1.66 at Betfair seem good value. I've only backed Taylor in the first two rounds and though he has been hitting some nice 3 darts he seemed to miss a lot of double. Raymond van Barneveld came out of my sim between 4-4.4, yet he looks to be scoring high and was hitting some nice finishes. 5.5 at sky seems excellent value My spreadsheet is mainly to help with my spread betting, so apart from the match bets when looking at check-out I'm interested in expected line rather than probability over/under. However, a couple of stand out bets: Anderson v Wade over 7.5 180s Evens at Corals. The spread is 7.5-8 which I bet on as I would expect anything upto 9. Anderson has been hitting around 0.49 180s per leg while Wade is 0.27 over the last 6 matches and 0.29 in the PL. Even if there is only 12 legs I'd still fancy this to come in. Highest check-out: As a side note the average check-out in the PL per player is 98.7 and in a match it's 118.3 Jenkins v Whitlock under 122.5 at 1.9 with Stan James. Neither has looked liked finishing. Jenkins has only checked out over 100 in one match this season and that was below the line. Whitlock won 8 legs week with best out of 56. In week 1 his best finish was 40 (he did have a 140 in week 2). On a trended average they have finishes of 77 and 88 respectively. This makes the line look attractive. Even if you look at both players history in the PL they average 99 and 106. The average checkout in the PL per match is 118 and these guys are the best finishers and being out of sorts makes this see, attractive. For those who do spreads there is an arb on the checkout for both Lewis and Webster at sporting and Xtrabet

[pakelly]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4 Here's my bets for tonights action: 10pts Mark Webster highest match checkout over 99.50 @ 5/6 Paddy Power This line is too low. Webster has checked out 100+ in all 3 games so far. Even in a dismal performance against anderson last week he checked out 102. I fancy this to be a tight game with plenty of 100+ checkout opportunities for webby. Therefore i'm going for a max bet on this one. 3pts Anderson/Wade Over 7.50 180's @ 10/11 Paddy Power I think this could be a 180 fest. As kev said above, these two have played some blinders against each other in the past and there's been a bit of needle in some of them. It's going to be a cracker and i wouldn't be surprised to see the total 180's in double figures. 2pts Over 27.50 180's in week 4 @ 5/6 Paddy Power There were a total of 25 180's last week and 2 of the games were 8-1 and 8-2 scorelines. I can't see any of tonights games finishing any worse than 8-4 and so we should have plenty of legs to get the required no. of 180's. Best of luck all :hope

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4 :welcome gloryhunters, good luck I've not had much chance to look to be honest this week. I got £10 in my SJ account from last month's DHRC, and have just spent that on a couple of mug bets for tonight. 50p Correct Score yankee Jenkins 4 Whitlock 8 11/2 Webster 7 Lewis 7 4/1 Anderson 8 Wade 5 5/1 Barneveld 4 Taylor 8 5/1 £4.50 Treble Whitlock (8/11), Anderson (8/13) & Taylor (8/15) Mainly just going with who I think will win, by how many breaks of throw, then chucking the winning on your throw part. Jenkins has been in decline in this over the last 2 years, whilst Whitlock finally bounced back to something near form last week. The Aussie can take care of the Bull by a couple of breaks. Lewis... which one will it be tonight, I think from a match outcome perspective he's a player to leave alone as you never know which persona will turn up! Whichever, I think Webby has settled into the PL quite well and is good enough to share the spoils tonight. Wade seems to be focussing more on playing to the crowd and hauling them round on to his side rather than he is his darts, and it shows. Anderson has taken to the PL like a duck to water and can power to another victory tonight. Bar the opening day illness Taylor has been, well, Taylor-like, and he can take care of even a 'going-day' Barney by a couple of breaks.

[kevshat]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4 2 more for me tonight. 4pts M.Webster's Highest Checkout - Over 99.5 5/6 Paddy Power How low does this line look :eek. Webster only hit one checkout last week but it was a 102 and prior to that he checked out 170 and 160 against Taylor and popped in a couple of ton plus finishes against Wadey in week 1. I don't think I've ever seen a line this low, rightfully so as Webby is one of the best finishers in the game. He can be monotonous on that tops when he's in nick. He got walloped last week but this is a new week. With Ady's scoring power the chances are Webby will have to take out a big shot to keep with him so I'm definitely taking the overs here. 3pts R.Barneveld to beat P.Taylor - Race to 3 legs 5/4 Skybet I like what I've seen in Raymond in this league so far. I know Lewis came back hard at him last week but I was ultra impressed with him. He scored consistently and didn't miss a lot of doubles and more importantly was threatening to hit the big checkouts, big checkouts he hit with ease the week before. Barney has the throw tonight and I like his chances of leading the race to 3. I've a sneaky feeling Barney's coming into this match against Taylor in the best mood against him since he won the world title and if we see the Barney we've seen in the opening three weeks then he's definitely good enough to hold onto his throw and beat the Power to 3 legs.

[pakelly]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4

Here's my bets for tonights action: 10pts Mark Webster highest match checkout over 99.50 @ 5/6 Paddy Power This line is too low. Webster has checked out 100+ in all 3 games so far. Even in a dismal performance against anderson last week he checked out 102. I fancy this to be a tight game with plenty of 100+ checkout opportunities for webby. Therefore i'm going for a max bet on this one.

1st leg. :beer

[soundingstylish]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4 Like the over 12.5 legs @ 8/11 massively in the next one. These 2 usually play out close games and both will be well up for this one tonight! Taylor and Barney coming back into form, could be a belter :ok (10pts - 888Sport)

[soundingstylish]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4

Like the over 12.5 legs @ 8/11 massively in the next one. These 2 usually play out close games and both will be well up for this one tonight! Taylor and Barney coming back into form' date=' could be a belter :ok ([b']10pts - 888Sport)

Why did I even bother. Barney is not at the races as usual! Game over

[pakelly]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4

Here's my bets for tonights action: 10pts Mark Webster highest match checkout over 99.50 @ 5/6 Paddy Power This line is too low. Webster has checked out 100+ in all 3 games so far. Even in a dismal performance against anderson last week he checked out 102. I fancy this to be a tight game with plenty of 100+ checkout opportunities for webby. Therefore i'm going for a max bet on this one. 3pts Anderson/Wade Over 7.50 180's @ 10/11 Paddy Power I think this could be a 180 fest. As kev said above, these two have played some blinders against each other in the past and there's been a bit of needle in some of them. It's going to be a cracker and i wouldn't be surprised to see the total 180's in double figures. 2pts Over 27.50 180's in week 4 @ 5/6 Paddy Power There were a total of 25 180's last week and 2 of the games were 8-1 and 8-2 scorelines. I can't see any of tonights games finishing any worse than 8-4 and so we should have plenty of legs to get the required no. of 180's. Best of luck all :hope

+3.33pts for the night and now +7.93pts for the tournament. The webster bet saved the day in what would otherwise have been a disaster.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Darts: Premier League Week 4 Well, turned my free cash into real cash with the treble coming in! Well done winners, Webby didn't leave you 'Finish' backers waiting long :)