Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February

[Monterosso]

Winners galore lads. :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February 1:55 Kempton: First Fandango 1pt win 10/1 Betfred With three of the first four in the market having their first run over hurdles in this country it may pay to side with the unbeaten First Fandango. First Fandango may be a horse that just does enough to win, and there could be more improvement to come. His win at Ayr when beating Vosges (winner twice since) has been franked. And trainer Tim Vaughan has enjoyed a decent little spell over the last few days with his horses running well. 3:00 Kempton: Quinz 2pts win 8/1 Ladbrokes * Quinz looks worth an interest here. He meets many of the trends and reading some of the articles on the Racing Post site this race has been his long term target. Phillip Hobbs knows how to win the Racing Post Chase and looking through his form Quinz goes very well right handed. He has won here over hurdles. Quinz was impressive when beating Far More Serious at Ascot over three miles on good to soft going and there was no disgrace when third behind Time For Rupert at Cheltenham last time out. A slight concern with Quinz is the lack of experience in this sort of race, yet that means Quinz is less exposed. He has jumped well in his races over the larger obstacles, so every chance there is more improvement to come. 3:15 Newcastle: Belon Gale 1pt win 5/1 Ladbrokes With Howard Johnson having such a poor record in this race, it would be easy to be put off Belon Gale. However, when Belon Gale gets to the course his form reads very well indeed and he should go well here. Last time out he won over four miles on heavy at Hexham beating Camden George by eight lengths. Previously, he was only just beaten by the ill fated Money Trix who was very smart on his day. With scope for improvement Belon Gale could finally open his trainer's account in this race. * price available at time of original post.....

[beaker1]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February Quinz - 3.00 Kempton - He is currently trading at 8-1 on Betfair and i think that is serious e/w value as i feel absolutely certain he'll finish in the first 3 and i reckon he's good enough to win. I've watched all his races today and He is a fantastic jumper, actually one of the best jumpers in the novice ranks in my opinion, which is very important in this race. Nacarat's main asset is his jumping and he looks sure to go well for a third year in a row. Quinz has to carry 11st which may seem like a lot on what he has achieved though he is a very big horse and looks the type that would carry any weight easily enough. I thought they made far too much use of him at cheltenham the last day, which set the race up for Time for Rupert. He was a well beaten 3rd that day after not quite getting home, though if you watch the closing stages again when Dickie Johnson knew he was beaten he eased of him completely and probably would have been a lot closer to 2nd had he not. Being a flat track(in comparison to cheltenham) Kempton looks sure to suit and he is guaranteed to stay the 3 miles having won twice over the distance going right handed. The ground tomorrow is forecast as good to soft which should be near enough his ideal going. Philip Hobbs has this lad entered in the national and he looks the type that could run that close in a year or two (Is a very similar type of horse in my opinion to big fella thanks who finished 3rd in a better renewal of this race two years ago). Of the opposition Fistral beach and Nacarat look the dangers. I'm not convinced by Fistral beach as to me he does not jump well enough. I backed him in this race last year where he fell, and putting that down to a once off i backed him nto, where he jumped terribly and was beaten a long way by Prince De Beauchanene. They claim to have sorted some of his problems out with a wind op but i don't see that improving his jumping enough to win this. Nacarat is nearly impossible to rule out and has been in very good form this season though i can't help feeling that if he was going to win this race twice, then he missed his chance last season as only 1 horse has won this race twice in the last 20 years, Docklands Express and he did it in consecutive years. I was quite sweet on Bakbenscher earlier this week but after watching some of his races I don't think he'll be able to cope with the pace Nacarat will set and his jumping will suffer as a result. The ground and the fact that his last run was only 13 days ago are also negatives. This trip looks to long for Hey Big Spender and he seems better in a smaller field and also has a lot of weight. So with his 4 main rivals ruled out (sort of!) i can see Quinz sitting just off the pace behind Nacarat and Hey Big Spender before pressing on 3 to stretch the field out. I have to admit that i'm slightly worried that something down the weights could collar him close home but for me he is a confident shout to win (or at least be in the first 3!) 8/1

[Monterosso]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February 3:00 Kempton - Hey Big Spender - 3pts @ 14/1 (Bet365) I'm quite the fan of this fellow abilities and he has a great chance here in my opinion, a far greater chance than his odds suggest. This is a tough Grade 3 contest and although he's never won at this level, he has more than enough ability to suggest he'll hold his own in this company. Hey Big Spender will have to shoulder 11st 11lbs, but it's no problem to him as he's a big strapping horse who's built to carry these weights. The majority of his wins have come when carrying lots of weight against inferior rivals and most of these are inferior to him if he produces his "A" game. Horses carrying a fair bit of weight also have good records in this race and he fits many more of the trends, most of them actually, with the only thing against him is that he has never won/placed at Listed & Graded level. However, there has been exceptions to the rule and he was in the process of running a cracker at Listed level, when sent off as an 8/1 shot in the Jewson Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham festival last year. He unseated his rider at the 13th, despite still traveling quite well on the back of a mistake at the previous fence. When he unseated, he was sitting nicely in 2nd place and assuming he finished the race, I expect that he'd of placed. Despite having fell on 2 of his 10 chase starts, Hey Big Spender is quite a good jumper when on song (can throw in the odd howler). So if he can get into a rhythm around here, I think he'll be involved at the business end, as the race is likely to be run to suit. He stepped up on all previous form when landing a class 2 handicap at Warwick last time out. He ran a career best to defy top weight against some decent animals. That was over 2m 5f on GS ground, in which he was slightly outpaced early on but traveled like the best horse and won in a decisive fashion. The only thing that worries me is his ability to handle Kempton, which is an unknown, although he's perfectly suited to galloping tracks. He seems to have enough speed to get competitive, he stays the trip and jumps well enough to suggest he'll handle the relatively tough fences here. How it'll hold up on the back of a solid gallop is a worry but he stays well and avoiding any mistakes will be crucial to his chances. If Joe Tizzard can get him settled in behind the pace (often takes a pull) and has him jumping well, it'll be hard to find anything staying on as well as him on the ground which is likely to be ideal, although more rain wouldn't be much harm. The likely fast pace is perfect for him (in terms of settling him) and if he's switched off early, he has a wonderful chance of producing another career best performance. I'm not too sure how he's marked up as a 14/1 chance, as he fits the bill as a potential winner of this race. He's 8 years old, won LTO, produced a career best RPR last time out, stays the trip, and many more. I marked him down as an 8/1 shot and I think he has a great chance of running a cracker here, assuming his jumping holds up, despite being usually good, it's still a worry. His yard are in decent form and do well with runners at Kempton, with 6 wins from 36 runners, giving them an impressive 17% strike rate and a 112% ROI here. Hopefully they'll be adding to those records with a victory here. Of the remainder, Bakbenscher and Fistral Beach may give my selection most to think about but I'm playing medium stakes on Colin Tizzard's charge.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February Sport Horse Racing Event 3.00 KEMPTON Selection FREE WORLD (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 26/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 51.00 Reasoning Fairly lightly raced 7yo from the Paul Nicholls yard worth a small interest e/w. Major step up in trip. Top yards 2nd string who have the fav who looks to be a strong contender but this may surprise a run a decent race. Sport Horse Racing Event 3.00 KEMPTON Selection DOOR BOY (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 26/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 26.00 Reasoning Looking for a good run from this horse today from shrewd connections and the step back up to 3m will suit imo has won over it and goes on all ground on a very good mark and looks to have a sound e/w chance and the 25's currently with laddies looks too big.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February Kempton 3.00 Bakbenscher 0.75pt EW - 9/1 Mostly Bob 0.75pt EW - 11/1 Mostly Bob is a lightly raced sort, who bolted up off top weight lto and hike in weights might not stop him. Yard always does well in this race and there could be more to come. Bakbenscher ran really well lto at Exeter and I think the penny has finally dropped over fences. Unexposed over 3 miles and yard continues well. If he jumps like he did at Exeter, he'll run a big race. Always regarded as a talented horse and could be well handicapped. Kempton 4.45 Coup Royale 0.75pt EW - 7/1 Very lightly raced and probably didn't stay 3 miles on seasonal reappearance. Today's 2m4f will suit more and I think he'll do a lot better. Yard is slowly finding its form after a quiet spell. Newcastle 2.15 Reindeer Dippin 1pt EW - 5/1 Won off 132 over fences and every chance off 126 today over hurdles. Additional 7lbs from the talented claimer and he should run well for top yard. Newcastle 3.15 Ballyfoy 0.75pt EW - 9/1 3 from 4 on heavy ground and this trip will suit. Held in the welsh national, but that was off higher mark. Has won off today's mark and he'll be staying on when others have had enough. Just hope he's not far away from the leaders when the real stamina kicks in.

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February 3.15 newcastle - eider Negus du Beaumont has his ideal conditions - needs a marthon test on slow ground and gets exactly that today. Stayed on one paced when second to Captain Americo over 3m earlier in the season but price skewed by poor run last time. Could feasibly bounce back and overpriced. 20/1 b365.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February Sport Horse Racing Event 4.10 KEMPTON Selection GEORGIAN KING (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 26/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Boylesports @ 41.00 Reasoning Not a bad horse when with the Alan King yard has been off the track a long time but now with the capable Suzy Smith been given a very fair mark and if fit could well run a big race at what looks a massive price. Sport Horse Racing Event 4.10 KEMPTON Selection FIRST STREAM Strength 1/10 Date 26/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Coral @ 19.00 Reasoning Back to more appropriate trip now and should put up a much better show. Very tuff to call the winner in this with loads with chances so just a small win for me. Sport Horse Racing Event 4.45 KEMPTON Selection RORY BOY (Each-way) Strength 3/10 Date 26/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 13.00 Reasoning Think the shrewd NTD camp have got this horse back on a verygood mark and will be much improved for the step back in trip. Sam back on top who seem to get preference rather paddy with a lot of the stables horses now IMO! Sport Horse Racing Event 4.45 KEMPTON Selection LADY BLING BLING (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 26/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Coral @ 21.00 Reasoning Ran well on chase debut and although the oldest horse in the race not overly raced and has won twice over hurdles can get involved off slightly less weight.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February Sport Horse Racing Event 3.15 NEWCASTLE Selection FLINTOFF (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 26/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 17.00 Reasoning Wouldn't take any shorter than 16's. Pig of a horse at times but is good if and when in the mood. Run over hurdles lto should have sweetened him for another try over the bigger obsticles. Small stakes Sport Horse Racing Event 2.15 NEWCASTLE Selection BEST PROSPECT Strength 3/10 Date 26/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 9.00 Reasoning Has won on both hurdle runs at the track will love the bog big chance.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February 2:15 Newcastle Washington Irving 1.5pts EW - 9/1 (Skybet) Think with the 7lb claimer he is supremely well handicapped off 123. His last three races have all been in very hot contests, this is by far the easiest he's faced for a while, which shows the regard he's held in. His form with Bygones of Brid is looking strong now too. Johnson in good form also. Return to two miles will suit and heavy ground won't be a problem either.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February Razor Royale 3.00 Kempton. 0.5 points each way. Disappointing recently, but probably been running with this in mind and gets in off a mark of 142, which gives him every chance if finding his form. The trip and ground hold no concerns & I feel a big run is on the cards, especially with many having questions to answer regarding weight, trip and ground.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February BALLYFOY 3.15 Newcastle. 0.5 points each way. Races off a mark of 129, handles heavy ground, stays the distance well, jumps well most of the time & appears to always give his all. With that and being around the 10s mark on the exchanges, he's well worth a bet.

[Spooner]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February

Quinz - 3.00 Kempton - He is currently trading at 8-1 on Betfair and i think that is serious e/w value as i feel absolutely certain he'll finish in the first 3 and i reckon he's good enough to win. I've watched all his races today and He is a fantastic jumper' date= actually one of the best jumpers in the novice ranks in my opinion, which is very important in this race. Nacarat's main asset is his jumping and he looks sure to go well for a third year in a row. Quinz has to carry 11st which may seem like a lot on what he has achieved though he is a very big horse and looks the type that would carry any weight easily enough. I thought they made far too much use of him at cheltenham the last day, which set the race up for Time for Rupert. He was a well beaten 3rd that day after not quite getting home, though if you watch the closing stages again when Dickie Johnson knew he was beaten he eased of him completely and probably would have been a lot closer to 2nd had he not. Being a flat track(in comparison to cheltenham) Kempton looks sure to suit and he is guaranteed to stay the 3 miles having won twice over the distance going right handed. The ground tomorrow is forecast as good to soft which should be near enough his ideal going. Philip Hobbs has this lad entered in the national and he looks the type that could run that close in a year or two (Is a very similar type of horse in my opinion to big fella thanks who finished 3rd in a better renewal of this race two years ago). Of the opposition Fistral beach and Nacarat look the dangers. I'm not convinced by Fistral beach as to me he does not jump well enough. I backed him in this race last year where he fell, and putting that down to a once off i backed him nto, where he jumped terribly and was beaten a long way by Prince De Beauchanene. They claim to have sorted some of his problems out with a wind op but i don't see that improving his jumping enough to win this. Nacarat is nearly impossible to rule out and has been in very good form this season though i can't help feeling that if he was going to win this race twice, then he missed his chance last season as only 1 horse has won this race twice in the last 20 years, Docklands Express and he did it in consecutive years. I was quite sweet on Bakbenscher earlier this week but after watching some of his races I don't think he'll be able to cope with the pace Nacarat will set and his jumping will suffer as a result. The ground and the fact that his last run was only 13 days ago are also negatives. This trip looks to long for Hey Big Spender and he seems better in a smaller field and also has a lot of weight. So with his 4 main rivals ruled out (sort of!) i can see Quinz sitting just off the pace behind Nacarat and Hey Big Spender before pressing on 3 to stretch the field out. I have to admit that i'm slightly worried that something down the weights could collar him close home but for me he is a confident shout to win (or at least be in the first 3!) 8/1

Excellent post.:clap Well done steve also, missed your post

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February Kempton Park 16:45 Sprint De Ferbet 5pts ew @ 11-1 Victor Chandler BOG One of the easiest entry from Henderson today based on trainers' record at the track the last 5 seasons. He does not face a trainer with a 20% or higher strike rate at the track. The second best is at 14% while Henderson is at 30%. His first three runners faced rivals from yards that do as well as Henderson here. His runners finished 2nd, PU, 3rd.

[diamond1924]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February A bit of an aftertime here, but stick with me, I was in my local shop (6men and a dog), and had a tenner e/w on Morgan Be in the Eider and a few of the boys in the shop had a go to after I'd made my case. Needless to say, I thought my horse had half a chance a mile out but threw my ticket away when I thought he'd been pulled up exhausted. The commentator had pronounced that there were only 2 finishers, blah, blah, blah... Needless to say I was a tad surprised to look up at the result coming through a good few minutes later, cue four fat b@&&@$s crawling about the floor looking for the crumpled up tickets :$ Anyhow, well done to Richard McGrath, in great form this year, on a remarkable ride, that must shurely be a candidate for ride of the week :clap:clap:clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 26th February Great write up Beaker :clap it deserved a win. And cheers Spooner :ok