themaverick Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 1 bet = bet on 0-0, 1-0 and over 1.5 goals Has anyone got any experience of this strategy? Isn't it just the same as laying 0-1? I take it you would chose matches where the home side is the fave or games where lots of goals are expected? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: bet on 0-0, 1-0 and over 1.5 goals Yes, it is the same. Out of those two criteria, home side favourite and lots of goals expected, I'd rather go for the later; reason is that 0-1 is most frequent away win, and one of the reasons probably because when away underdog catches 1-0 lead, they try to defend that result; furthermore, with home favorite, odds for 0-1 will be very high, 20 to 25, or even more. The freshest such a case I remember is Hamburger vs. St. Pauli, where Hamburger was public bet of the day, with odds of around 1.65, yet St. Pauli succeeded to score a goal and to defend it. In matches where there's no strong favourite, and many goals are expected, you can lay 0-1 at around 15, while in tight matches and low-scoring leagues, odds will be as low as 7 to 9. All odds I mentioned reffer to kick off time; odds for both 0-1 and 1-0 tend to drop untill middle of second half (naturally, if there is no goal before), and by that time, they are usually halved in comparison to pre-match odds (i.e., if they were 15 at kick off, around 60 minute they will be around 7 to 8; but that also depends on evaluation of the market how teams have performed so far); so I usually don't lay 0-1 at kick off, but wait some time into the match, not only for odds to drop, but also to see how the game develops. I use Betvirus to roughly separate expectation of that result by leagues - for example, you'll find that 0-1 has been the most frequent result (not most frequent away win, but most frequent result overall) in Germany Bundesliga this season so far - 22 out of 207 matches, or 10.6%, finished 0-1, so it's probably league to avoid, unless you have strong evidence against that result; on the other hand, only 11 out of 266 matches, or 4.1%, in EPL finished 0-1 so far this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
themaverick Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: bet on 0-0, 1-0 and over 1.5 goals Informative answer - thanks... So why would anyone bother with that strategy when they could simply lay the 0-1? Is it because you can get slightly better odds doing the strategy or is it that some people just hate to Lay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: bet on 0-0, 1-0 and over 1.5 goals Informative answer - thanks... So why would anyone bother with that strategy when they could simply lay the 0-1? Is it because you can get slightly better odds doing the strategy or is it that some people just hate to Lay? If you are on betfair, then it saves you a reasonable amount of commission to lay the 0-1. With other bookies, it does not matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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