bet on 0-0, 1-0 and over 1.5 goals

[themaverick]

1 bet = bet on 0-0, 1-0 and over 1.5 goals Has anyone got any experience of this strategy? Isn't it just the same as laying 0-1? I take it you would chose matches where the home side is the fave or games where lots of goals are expected?

[froment]

Re: bet on 0-0, 1-0 and over 1.5 goals Yes, it is the same. Out of those two criteria, home side favourite and lots of goals expected, I'd rather go for the later; reason is that 0-1 is most frequent away win, and one of the reasons probably because when away underdog catches 1-0 lead, they try to defend that result; furthermore, with home favorite, odds for 0-1 will be very high, 20 to 25, or even more. The freshest such a case I remember is Hamburger vs. St. Pauli, where Hamburger was public bet of the day, with odds of around 1.65, yet St. Pauli succeeded to score a goal and to defend it. In matches where there's no strong favourite, and many goals are expected, you can lay 0-1 at around 15, while in tight matches and low-scoring leagues, odds will be as low as 7 to 9. All odds I mentioned reffer to kick off time; odds for both 0-1 and 1-0 tend to drop untill middle of second half (naturally, if there is no goal before), and by that time, they are usually halved in comparison to pre-match odds (i.e., if they were 15 at kick off, around 60 minute they will be around 7 to 8; but that also depends on evaluation of the market how teams have performed so far); so I usually don't lay 0-1 at kick off, but wait some time into the match, not only for odds to drop, but also to see how the game develops. I use Betvirus to roughly separate expectation of that result by leagues - for example, you'll find that 0-1 has been the most frequent result (not most frequent away win, but most frequent result overall) in Germany Bundesliga this season so far - 22 out of 207 matches, or 10.6%, finished 0-1, so it's probably league to avoid, unless you have strong evidence against that result; on the other hand, only 11 out of 266 matches, or 4.1%, in EPL finished 0-1 so far this season.