bowles10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ok, i will be putting some stats in here gleaned from our last few years, happy if you wish to add anything but this thread could prove useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Get yer stats out for the lads....... Tackling the favourite Last year, if you had laid the favourite in every race where it had not ran at the previous Cheltenham festival - results are below Day 1 LAY The Package 9/2f Day 2 LAY Deutchsland 7/1f Day 3 LAY Rivaliste 6/1f LAY Alfie Sherrin 11/4f LAY Galant Nuit 11/2f Day 4 LAY Tito Bustillo 7/1f LAY Tell Massini 11/4f LAY Roulez Cool 9/2jf LAY Youre the top 13/2f 9 out of 9 winning lays if you laid the favourite that hadnt run at last years festival. As roulez cool was jtfav, we would have lost on that bet as Baby run was jtfav and won but had run at last years festival. So the pointer is to avoid the favourites who hadnt run at last years festival. There were plenty of losers this year as the favs were very poor, Quevega, Big Bucks, Sanctuiare (did not qualify as race was for 4yo's) and Baby run were the only ones that did win and the 3 that did run at last years festival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Get yer stats out for the lads....... Do Course winners win at the festival? Last years results showing the races won by Course winners Day 1 Sizing Europe 6/1 Quevega 6/4 Day 2 Weapons Amnesty 10/1 Spirit River 14/1 Day 3 Albertas run 16/1 Big Bucks 5/6 Day 4 Imperial Commander 7/1 Pidgeon Island 16/1 Course winners produced 8 winners, not sure what the percentage is but just looking at another stat to consider also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Get yer stats out for the lads....... Using last years festival runners! Races won by horses who ran at the festival in the year prior Day 1 Binocular 9/1 (2009 - 3rd) A New Story 25/1 (2009 -4th) Quevega 6/4 (2009 - 1st) Day 2 Poker De Sivola 14/1 (2009 - 7th) Weapons Amnesty 10/1 (2009 -1st) Big Zeb 10/1 (2009 - Fell) Day 3 Copper Bleu 12/1 (2009 - 4th) Buena Vista 16/1 (2009 - 2nd) Albertas Run 14/1 (2009 -9th) Big Bucks 5/6 (2009 - 1st) Great Endeavour 18/1 (2009 - 17th) Day 4 Imperial Commander 7/1 (2009 -1st) Baby Run 9/2 (2009 - 2nd) Pause & Clause 14/1 (2009 - 3rd) so 14 winners from 26 ran at last years festival, take out the Fred Winter, Triumph, Bumper then you have 14 from 23 races which isnt too shabby Previous festival form still stands up. Some of those big prices were placed last year also, amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Get yer stats out for the lads....... Wrapped up in cotton wool? Horses wrapped in cotton wool were found out last year. Somersby, Go Native, Tell Massini, Restless Harry spring to mind, all looked short of a run as many predicted. Ignore this at your peril! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Get yer stats out for the lads....... Wrapped up in cotton wool? Horses wrapped in cotton wool were found out last year. Somersby, Go Native, Tell Massini, Restless Harry spring to mind, all looked short of a run as many predicted. Ignore this at your peril! This caused a bit of debate last year as some horses run better off a long absence. It certainly didnt hinder Quevega for example. However, i think you have to consider the horses profile if the horse hasnt run since December going into the festival, hbow does it run after a 3 month break? Imperial Commander did it last year returning to form after the King George. This year the likes of Diamond Harry for example will be coming offf a long break to try to win one of the big races. I personally prefer those horses that have been kept up with racing in Jan or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Get yer stats out for the lads....... Great Stats Bowles - are you gonna post the last time out 1st and 2nd stats in each race on each day like you did last year ??? I thought that was a useful guide.:ok Chelt 2010 Day 1 1 2nd - 20th Feb 2 1st - 26th Dec 3 1st - 24th Feb 4 1st - 6th Feb 5 4th - 7th Mar - muddling cross country race not like usual race 6 No run season - horse runs well fresh - CD winner same race 2009 Day 2 1 1st - 15th Feb 2 1st - 23rd Jan 3 2nd - 17th Feb 4 1st - 31st Jan 5 17th - 13th Feb - going well and challenging blundered and eased. 6 1st - 23rd Feb 7 1st - 25th Jan Day 3 1 1st - 3rd Feb 2 8th - 29th Jan 3 2nd - 20th Feb 4 1st - 29th Dec 5 4th - 8th Feb 6 1st - 13th Feb Day 4 1 1st - 27th Feb 2 14th - 23rd Jan 3 4th - 14th Feb 4 5th - 26th Dec - King George Race - horse runs well fresh 5 1st - 26th Feb 6 UR - 20th Feb 7 5th - 13th Feb Note the LTO seems to work better on the first 2 days of the Festival and for all the main races. Also Noted that Majority ran in Time frame after Christmas upto end of February of that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Get yer stats out for the lads....... Surely if a horse wins on seasonal re-appearance, he has by default won after a long absence ? Therefore, giving it a long break after one race could possibly have a similar effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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