AndrewKent Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hi there folks, It's been a busy week work-wise so I've been limited in what I've been able to post up. I've also be receiving some very kind feedback from folks saying they are enjoying reading my posts and truth tell, I'm quite enjoying challenge of learning something new. Anyway, this evenings thoughts? Well, as you may know, I've been putting a shed load of time into building Paul Steele's betting systems into excel. The build side of things are going really well but I've still not found that Holy Grail of betting success yet. From discussions that I've had and things I've read, I think that although the approach I am taking is sound, I need to refine how I am doing things. One idea I had is I need to be more specific about the data I analyse. Rather than taking every league into my analysis, I think I should do one at at time (qualitative over quantative analysis) and tailor any system to a specific league. Data from the Scottish leagues should have no bearing on the Spanish leagues right? So with this in mind I have decided to take one division (yet to be decided) and analyse the following things: Short term game form How a team performs against opposition of a certain rating (the rating will be based on Paul Steele's Power Rating) How teams perform when the odds of the match are X I intend to run regression analysis on these factors to find out if there are any correlations between certain league aspects (such as goals scored) and the outcome of games. Without asking any experienced Punters to give away their secrets, can I ask if I am taking the right approach or if I am over complicating something that should be very simple? As with all my posts, any and all opinions are warmly received and if anyone else who is looking for similar answers to myself, jump on board the thread, it's always good to help in whatever small way I can. Cheers guys! Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues Hi there folks, Without asking any experienced Punters to give away their secrets, can I ask if I am taking the right approach or if I am over complicating something that should be very simple? Andy NO and NO: you are not overcomplicating and you are not taking the right approach. Forget historical data mining. Its very exciting but it wont make you any long term profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues NO and NO: you are not overcomplicating and you are not taking the right approach. Forget historical data mining. Its very exciting but it wont make you any long term profit. Grand, so I am on the right lines for the first part. Second question (and this is VERY important :ok) "Forget historical data mining. Its very exciting but it wont make you any long term profit." So what approach will? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues I'am really amazed how such huge number of quite resonable people fail to perceive one simple fact that all this historical data is already in the odds. Everything statistical is already priced in. One could manipulate the data in a million of variations and methods, end up with fascinating R2 close to 1, and got a straight line on the graph. It is very useful in terms of statistical science, but it is worthless in terms of money making. So what then? My answer would be quite adapted specifically for Andrew: with your skills in VBA and programing in general, you have a huge advantage with comparison to majority of all the folks. You could be profitable. I am quite sure. But you should forget all classical betting theories. Try to invent something new, something unique. Something not in the books and not in this or any other forum. Well known methods will not work just because they are well known and a lot of folks trying to exploit them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues look at minor markets like corners, cards, who kicks off, foul totals, mins of added time etc. start by looking at what markets are being offered and then work backwards. what can you get data for etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues KEEP IT SIMPLE !!! :ok It appears to me your over-complicating things , find 2 or 3 criteria that generally does seem to have a positive effect , paper trail and see how things go . At this rate the season will be finished before you get started !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues I agree with jtw1, just do a paper trail and see what happens. Even if the system goes bust after 1 month, at least you know it doesn't work. Who knows, you might be able to find out what went wrong and make some improvements on your initial selection criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues I agree with jtw1' date=' just do a paper trail and see what happens. Even if the system goes bust after 1 month, at least you know it doesn't work. Who knows, you might be able to find out what went wrong and make some improvements on your initial selection criteria.[/quote'] I disagree. 1month is far too short period. Its something about 400 matches. Its too small sample. Paper trail is very time consuming and unefective. I would suggest back-testing at least 2years. But of course, firstly you must have an idea what to test. And, yes, some strategies impossible to backtest in principle. Then yes, papertrial, to collect some data patterns and apply it retrospectively if possible to a bigger sample. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues I'am really amazed how such huge number of quite resonable people fail to perceive one simple fact that all this historical data is already in the odds. Everything statistical is already priced in. Really??? Maybe you should look again at the odds for England during the last world cup. Based on the odds on offer you would think England was the best team in the world, yet a quick look at the historical data would say quite the opposite. The odds on offer have more to do with what the bookies think the betting public will do(patriotic people will back england no matter what) than any efficient market hypothesis or such malarkey. A bookmakers aim is not to predict the result of a match, if only they could. Their aim is to balance to book so they profit no matter what the outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues NO and NO: you are not overcomplicating and you are not taking the right approach. Forget historical data mining. Its very exciting but it wont make you any long term profit. And then you go on to say I disagree. 1month is far too short period. Its something about 400 matches. Its too small sample. Paper trail is very time consuming and unefective. I would suggest back-testing at least 2years. But of course' date= firstly you must have an idea what to test. And, yes, some strategies impossible to backtest in principle. Then yes, papertrial, to collect some data patterns and apply it retrospectively if possible to a bigger sample. Rather contradictory wouldn't you say :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues I'am not saying historical data is worthless. Quite in opposite. I'am using past data extensively and it is wired in my strategy. But I almost sure that traditional approach to its analysis could never gain any profit in longer run. Regarding example with England (or you could take any other more recent "dissapointment"), do not forget that 1.25 odds indicate 80% win probability. So all these "dissapointments" are just another side of the same coin - 20% "s-it happens". And yes, bookies do not care about outcomes, they do balance the books, but the markets (or at least mainstream markets) are so efficient that in fact it is the same as predicting the outcome. In fact efficient markets theory is almost dead in financial markets, but it is alive as never befor in sports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues Thanks for all the input guys. You've probably noticed that yes, I am looking at ALOT of systems but I'm treating this season s a bit of a learning curve rather than as a profit maker. If I should be looking at a really simple approach, there must be something really obvious I am overlooking in terms of what I am analysing. For example, short and long term form, goals scored, attacking ability, defensive weakness. All of what I would consider logical and important but so far I've not been able to find the right combination. Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues Andy, it's still looks like you are too attached to mainstream approach and indicators. Recent form, goal ratings, etc. This are the fields the herd is grazing. All grass is already eaten to roots. If you want to achieve moderate profit, you should go elsewhere. Ok. I am not really indended to share any viable ideas (arsehole me:) but try this: backtest teams and look how they performe at home after unexpected away win. You will find that some teams systematicaly fail to performe adequately and this is provides a perfect oportunity to capitalyse on this by laying such team. I think this is something mental behind such pattern. Anyway, it works. Use excel database functions and Do...Loop method. Or maybe you could find more ellegant way how to do it with VBA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues Gday Player Mate, someone once told me "if you dont know what youre aiming at, you'll hit it every time" Meaning you'll finish up with nothing... I tend to agree with jtw1 (keep it simple) A mate of mine when he goes to the races, if there is any leader bias, he just back leaders...he goes ok... If you are just looking for a system, any system, then all you have is an exercise in frustration... In any case I wish you well :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues One idea I had is I need to be more specific about the data I analyse. Rather than taking every league into my analysis' date=' I think I should do one at at time (qualitative over quantative analysis) and tailor any system to a specific league. Data from the Scottish leagues should have no bearing on the Spanish leagues right?[/quote'] Right? I don't think so. As the laws of the game are the same, both in Scotland and in Spain, there are of course many similarity inbetween the datasets. You just have to find the right adjustments among the league structures. I.e. Barca and Real are not that dominant as are Celtic and Rangers. Spanish top two play each opponent twice, not four times a year. And so on. But still, the same rules apply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues I'am really amazed how such huge number of quite resonable people fail to perceive one simple fact that all this historical data is already in the odds. Everything statistical is already priced in. One could manipulate the data in a million of variations and methods' date=' end up with fascinating R2 close to 1, and got a straight line on the graph. It is very useful in terms of statistical science, but it is worthless in terms of money making.[/quote'] That is why you cannot derive your formula for the selection parameters by analysing the full dataset, and then backtest those parameters for every game in the dataset. That's like kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy as your parameters then predict the outgame of a game, with such outcome influencing the prediction. You have to find a formula working the full dataset that derives the parameters for let's say week 7 from games in weeks 1 to 6, then the parameters for week 8 from games in week 2 to 7 and so on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues Hi M8, The way i see it, you need to trial your system on odds of approx even money and better. See what your strike rate produces and resultant yield, irrespective of what you bet on. Even money you need 50% s/r and better, if you find you are consistantly proving higher then you have a basis for a system! Every system will have a losing streak, being able to disregard this and still win the end game is key. I also think what one needs is belief in what one is doing! Yield and S/R in combination with your odds is what you r looking for! Enjoy the number crunching. The Lubet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues Hi M8, The way i see it, you need to trial your system on odds of approx even money and better. See what your strike rate produces and resultant yield, irrespective of what you bet on. Even money you need 50% s/r and better, if you find you are consistantly proving higher then you have a basis for a system! Why do people so often look for strategies on odds of around even? Imagine 100 bets for 1 unit @ 2.00 each with BF. You win 50 bets, you lose 50 bets Leaves you with 97.50 units, a loss of 2.50 units due to commission. Then imagine 100 for 1 unit @ 1.25 each with BF. You win 80 bet, you lose 20 bets Leaves you with 99.00 units, a loss of 1.00 units due to commission. (Works also with standard overround bookmaker who offers 1.95 instead of evens, respectively 1.24 instead of 1.25) So whatever strategy you work with, don't go for too long odds, as your strike rate needs to be bigger due to bigger commission payments. (or overround deduction on odds with standard bookmaker) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues I'am not saying historical data is worthless. Quite in opposite. I'am using past data extensively and it is wired in my strategy. But I almost sure that traditional approach to its analysis could never gain any profit in longer run. Regarding example with England (or you could take any other more recent "dissapointment"), do not forget that 1.25 odds indicate 80% win probability. So all these "dissapointments" are just another side of the same coin - 20% "s-it happens". I'm well aware of what odds of 1.25 mean, my point was to provide an example where the odds did not include/reflect all previous data/knowledge about an event. (England favs against Germany???) And yes, bookies do not care about outcomes, they do balance the books, but the markets (or at least mainstream markets) are so efficient that in fact it is the same as predicting the outcome. The markets are no more efficient than the players in the market. Sharp punters, sharp prices, dumb punters(like the England v Germany game), dumb prices. In fact efficient markets theory is almost dead in financial markets' date=' [b']but it is alive as never before in sports. Proof? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues Hi there folks, It's been a busy week work-wise so I've been limited in what I've been able to post up. I've also be receiving some very kind feedback from folks saying they are enjoying reading my posts and truth tell, I'm quite enjoying challenge of learning something new. Anyway, this evenings thoughts? Well, as you may know, I've been putting a shed load of time into building Paul Steele's betting systems into excel. The build side of things are going really well but I've still not found that Holy Grail of betting success yet. From discussions that I've had and things I've read, I think that although the approach I am taking is sound, I need to refine how I am doing things. One idea I had is I need to be more specific about the data I analyse. Rather than taking every league into my analysis, I think I should do one at at time (qualitative over quantative analysis) and tailor any system to a specific league. Data from the Scottish leagues should have no bearing on the Spanish leagues right? So with this in mind I have decided to take one division (yet to be decided) and analyse the following things: Short term game form How a team performs against opposition of a certain rating (the rating will be based on Paul Steele's Power Rating) How teams perform when the odds of the match are X I intend to run regression analysis on these factors to find out if there are any correlations between certain league aspects (such as goals scored) and the outcome of games. Without asking any experienced Punters to give away their secrets, can I ask if I am taking the right approach or if I am over complicating something that should be very simple? As with all my posts, any and all opinions are warmly received and if anyone else who is looking for similar answers to myself, jump on board the thread, it's always good to help in whatever small way I can. Cheers guys! Andy Are you likely to find any profitable systems based on Paul Steele's book? I doubt it. If mr Steele had a profitable system would he give it away in a book? Most likely, he had at best, a brake even system and decided there was more profit to be made from selling it in a book than from placing his own money on the systems selections. (IMHO) If you expect to find any profitable systems based on it, your going to be very disappointed. However if you wish to use it as a vehicle for learning more about betting and betting systems then there is a lot you can gain from it. There is no right way to approach betting systems, you have to find what works for you. some people like to use historical data and simple formulas to predict outcomes. others prefer more formal methods of statistics. It probably depends as much on peoples backgrounds and skill sets as it does on what is more successful. One thread that takes a different perspective that you might want look over is Slapdash's B.O.G. Bet365 in the glory hunters section. It does not try to predict winners or calculate fair odds, it just tries to get the best odds available and leaves the rest up to chance. The better odds you get, the less often you need to be right. As for experts on this forum, the only ones you are likely to find are experts in what does not work ;) anyone who has found the holy grail will be long gone. So if you have an idea, try it out, post the results in a thread, there are plenty of people willing to give their opinions. But they are just that, opinions. If you keep asking what is the correct way to do things, I fear you will get as many answers as there are people on this forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues Clay, This is probably one of the best responses I've had on any of my threads. Simple and honest. I am starting to see that yes, well known systems or approaches have probably been bled dry and following the book verbatim isn't going to make me successful. It's taken a month of work to see that now. I'm not however disheartened. As you say, if I have to find what works for me, that gives me a lot more freedom to experiment with ideas. Background playing a factor? yeah, I agree, I'm an analyst. I would love to find a correlation between teams that win at home on a Wednesday night against opposition who have traveled 100+ miles for the match! So experimenting holds just as much fun for me. As for all the threads I have posted so, far, even though I have not found a profitable system yet, I HAVE learned an incredible amount. I remember reading somewhere that consider silly losses in betting as your "fee" for learning to bet. You'll not hopefully make the same mistakes twice right? Anyway, I'll take on board everything that's been said and re-asses my approach. Again, thanks for the support guys I really appreciate it. Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Analysing Leagues I've done what you are doing now and its bloody painstaking. I also found it unprofitable. If you have fun looking then fair enough but people are right, the only likely way to find an edge is by finding something and keeping it to yourself. Someone made the point earlier that certain markets are "dead". What I would say is the football 1-X-2 markets are so efficient these days that you either think you've got value and not enough results come in, and when you bet against what you think is value, you get a lot right but at insufficiently good odds for it to matter. My current thought is looking at points differences between teams in divisions over seasons after they've finished, then applying projected pts total for this season to those, to see if some true odds can be derived and thereby value. If it seems to have success for the rest of the season I will start sharing. In full anticipation that it won't work, of course....:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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