richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this is just a bit of fun for today to further the class system i discussed on my speed thread that i toyed with a few years ago ...... firstly you have gauge the differences between classes and as this is the biggest sticking point and everyone will have different opinions for the purposes of getting the thread going ive come up with the following ratingwhich is open to further alteration at a later date: group 1 130-140 group 2 123-129 group 3 115-122 listed(inc hcap) 104-114 class 2 90-103 class 3 76-90 class4 66-75 class 5 56-65 class6 46-55 class 7 0-45 of course as mentioned some races are better than others so ratings will open to scrutiny but lets see how they go ......... lets take todays 3.25 ayr billy blackpool has run 4l down in class 4 recently carrying 2lbs more - winner of class 4 (65) -4 lengths =(4x2lbs) =57 (+2lb lighter)=total 59 the cockney squire ... -10l class 4 =55 now 5lbs better so 60 pamak dairy -11 class 3 =68 now 12lbs worse =56 so although this race looks one sided from a class point of view they are all generally evenly matched according to this chart its only for fun ,so lets see what happens .....oh for further .....billy blackpools rating is good/soft, the cockney squire is good .....todays ground is good so in theory the cockney squire comes out best but only just :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class in the 4.00 ayr : emirate isle on his last but one run is rated 78 on soft but ran very poorly last time so form has to be taken on trust whaston has a rating of 69 on good super ally has a rating of 72 on soft over 20f so whaston comes out top in todays conditions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class 2.50 ayr seven is lucky is rated 80 but in a novice evnt so potentially lower than that so if deduct 10 then rated 70 hasper is rated 72 on last but one run schindlers society is rated 69 coldwell 68 very close .....both proven on course dist and going .....coldwell or schindlers society come out top big squeak for outsider hasper if returning to form 16/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class this is just a bit of fun for today to further the class system i discussed on my speed thread that i toyed with a few years ago ...... firstly you have gauge the differences between classes and as this is the biggest sticking point and everyone will have different opinions for the purposes of getting the thread going ive come up with the following ratingwhich is open to further alteration at a later date: group 1 130-140 group 2 123-129 group 3 115-122 listed(inc hcap) 104-114 class 2 90-103 class 3 76-90 class4 66-75 class 5 56-65 class6 46-55 class 7 0-45 of course as mentioned some races are better than others so ratings will open to scrutiny but lets see how they go ......... lets take todays 3.25 ayr billy blackpool has run 4l down in class 4 recently carrying 2lbs more - winner of class 4 (65) -4 lengths =(4x2lbs) =57 (+2lb lighter)=total 59 the cockney squire ... -10l class 4 =55 now 5lbs better so 60 pamak dairy -11 class 3 =68 now 12lbs worse =56 so although this race looks one sided from a class point of view they are all generally evenly matched according to this chart its only for fun ,so lets see what happens .....oh for further .....billy blackpools rating is good/soft, the cockney squire is good .....todays ground is good so in theory the cockney squire comes out best but only just :unsure As you say its only FUN to see what happens and you have already mentioned some races could be better than others which could be a prob. Even so unless one tries these things one never knows so how it may end up it hard to say. My main concern for what its worth is you are comparinging its LAST race and as you have shown different GOINGS were its a FACTOR in the choice. This maybe OK but BILLY BLACPOOL who ran on g/soft lto may have a far better record on good or maybe not but if he as then that as to be taken into account. I understand your concept but in my mind the LOWER the class of race the harder it maybe to work out. Whether this could work well on the AW were at least many will be running on the same surface and in similar CLASS races most of the time it may have a GREATER EFFECT. Also as these are JUMPS races a bad last jump could be the difference between 1 to 10 lenghts at the line. Just my personal thoughts but WILL LOOK WITH INTEREST. T%M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class yes of course your right .....but not sure whether best recent form is better to use or like you said ... best form on todays ground but sometimes that can go back 6 monthes ...so is a bit out of date .....i am extending it to last 2 runs in some cases ....ive never really tried this fully so no idea whats going to happen .....todays races arent very good ....im more interested in looking for HUGE class discrepencys ....and seeing how they get on the big hcaps ultimately ......might be one for the big saturday races in time when /if it gets fine tuned .....we can but try particuly interested in that 16/1 horse today ....seeing how he runs in comparison to the others its actually heartenng to see that they are bunched up today as thats what i would expect in hcaps and the like ,so hopefully its not too far out .......it might pay to give the best figure they have recorded on todays going in the last 6 or 12 monthes maybe ? the beauty of this is if you have the chart in front of you you can work out big 20 runners hcaps in about 10 mins just jotting the class rating next the name on the cards .....so very easy to use overall its just a rough guide .......if you see on the chart a horse that finishes 5l down in a class 5 off todays weight is more than capable of winning a class 6 next time out given a similar run .....and common sense says that if conditions are true then that should be quite accurate so thats what we are aiming for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class ACTUALLY IVE MISCALCULATED BILLY BLACKPOOLS RATING !!! ITS SUPPOSED TO BE 75 FOR A WINNER CLASS 4 NOT 65 SO HE HAS A RATING 75-8+2="69" WHICH PUTS HIM TOP ON GOOD SOFT TODAYS IS GOOD BUT HE HAS 9 PTS ON THE OTHERS ?:eyes SO ITS BILLY BLACPOOL 69(GD/SFT) AGAINST COCKNEY 60 (GOOD) ....ONCE WE SEE THE RESULT WE CAN JUDGE BETTER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class JUST HAD A LOOK AT THE MURPHY HCAP THAT RAN LAST SATURDAY(BIG HCAP) BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS COMING INTO RACE WISHFULL THINKING 124 NOVICE CALGARY BAY 107 OTHERS NOMINAL THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WAS LOOKING FOR AND I MISSED IT !!!!!! A HUGE CLASS DISCREPANCY AND IT WINS BY A STREET !!!!! DONT BELIEVE IT .....GUTTED !!!:sad BUT IF IT HAPPENS ONCE IT CAN HAPPEN AGAIN AND AT 9/2 ......DOUBLE GUTTED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class Thanks for the reply but as you say its something to see what happens and take on board what you are saying about the time between 2 runs but if a cut of point of say so many days say 30 for instance and horse who as run under different goings over that period may have better in a previous race at todays going. The software I use on SATURDAYS is based on racing post ratings and official ratings but in handicaps it compares today rating with last HANDICAP rating and in manyways why it FINDS OUTSIDERS which are nearly always big field handicaps but in my case I have PROGRAM that works it out. Also a trainer maybe waiting for the right rating before he will start to prime it to give it a good chance of winning next time out. Like I said I will look with interest as the concept may well WORK but maybe a lot of WORK involved but must agree with SATURDAYS BIG HANDICAPS Thanks again T%M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class AS NOVICE EVENTS ARENT AS CLASSY AS NORMAL RACES I WAS THINKING OF DEDUCTING AROUND 8 PTS TO ALIGN THE RATINGS .IN SATURDAYS RACE THAT WOULD HAVE PUT TOP RATED LOWER BUT COMPLETLY IN LINE WITH ACTUAL RESULT (4LENGTH SUPERIOR) AND WON BY 4 LENGTHS SO HAPPY WITH THAT AT THE MOMENT YES I AGREE I THINK THIS WILL WORK BEST IN THE SATURDAY BIG HCAPS WHERE THERE ARE EXAGERATTED PRICES ON OFFER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class IN THE 2.15 AYR TODAY : PREMIER SAGAS 89 BENNY BE GOOD 75 BALLYCOLLIN 73 BERTIE MILAN 69 PREMIER SAGAS IS SHORT IN BETTING BUT IS STREETS AHEAD ACCORDING TO THIS ....RACE IS OFF IN 25 MINS ....ONE TO WATCH :unsure NOW THIS IS THE SORT OF RACE IM TALKING ABOUT ..........HAD A FIVER ON AT 5/4 ...IF IT WINS IM PACKING UP SHOP AND RETIREING FROM THIS THREAD .......CMON ME BEAUTY !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class you think of an idea .......put it into practice ......on the bridal ....yeehaa !!! :spank:spank:nana big discrepancys is where the strength in this thread lies .....most definately .....it doesnt owe me anything now ....doubled me money in 25 minutes !! only joking about retiring .... benny be good 2nd....so forecast too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class well in saturdays big race and todays race ...both horses rating were from their last run so it seems its better to pay more attention to recent form than past so far ...but that might change as we go on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class hasper ran really well in the 2.50 at 20/1 finished top 5 i think ......rest of horses didnt run that well but they were bunched up .........winner won easily but cant see anything in his form so maybe just a blip ? more interested in next race .......will ground make a difference? .....interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class 1st and 2nd in 325 didnt have any form so non the wiser now ........the cockney squire finished 3rd best of rated horses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: class this is the hennessy gold cup on sunday .... pandorama 150 hy the listener 150 sft (lto poor) (15 length winner 81,000)(poor perform at leopards?) what a friend 140+ (lto poor) china rock 132+ soft or good (3rd in 74,000)(4 lengths behind kauto star) cooldine 132 (poor recent) (3rd in 119,000)(lost in photo in this last year) neptune collonges 129+ good sft some horses havent performed on their latest runs but have there ratings from one of last 3 runs at this level so has to taken into account as their recent run was probably just a warm up and they will naturally turn up 100% on the day .looks like this could hinge on the going on sunday as pandorama was heavy whereas the listener might not have liked heavy as he performed crap lto whereas his rating is on soft .what a friend is on good ,and china rock goes on anything !! got any thoughts? dont know what prices are available it would be interesting to know dont think pandorama is running? the listener is on offer at 16/1 if you forgive his last run on heavy ,china rock is 12/1 (seems good value to me ) ,and cooldine is 7/1 at the moment the 12/1 about china rock looks very good value to me as he goes on any ground and is also a potential improver dont like the favourite ....pride of dulcote because as a winner of a class 2 hes only in the 90's and is 7/4 fav? whats that about ........(and he was flat out in that ) the listener looks like he might not like leopardstown ,so i think for me at the moment id take cooldine to go one better than last year and china rock against the field Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: class JUST HAD A LOOK AT THE MURPHY HCAP THAT RAN LAST SATURDAY(BIG HCAP) BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS COMING INTO RACE WISHFULL THINKING 124 NOVICE CALGARY BAY 107 OTHERS NOMINAL THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WAS LOOKING FOR AND I MISSED IT !!!!!! A HUGE CLASS DISCREPANCY AND IT WINS BY A STREET !!!!! DONT BELIEVE IT .....GUTTED !!!:sad BUT IF IT HAPPENS ONCE IT CAN HAPPEN AGAIN AND AT 9/2 ......DOUBLE GUTTED Well done yesterday The prob with this race it was 1st time HANDICAPPING and although my SOFTWARE did not pick for lack of a couple of ratings THEIR WAS NO DOUBT it was a big DANGER as I mentioned and like you said won and maybe not that easy in its next HANDICAP. I think the PIPE winner in a later RACE must have had every chance from you idea and MAYBE A STAR IN THE MAKING. Like you say its something you have decide to do and will be GREAT TO SEE how it developes as this is more to my way of thinking and no doubt will FIND WINNERS T%M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: class 4.40 folk today this will be an excellent test ....... zhukov -- abey 70 (in november ) owner -- shes humb 73 the only horse in this race with any recent form from a class point of view is shes humble and at current quotes she is 8/1 !!!!! it will be extremely interesting to see how she performs this afternoon ,ill have an e.w bet at 8/1 available....abey m boy danger on old form Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: class one thing it has highlited as well ....valley view has a rating of 24!!!! over hurdles to date and because its mccoy and o niel the bookies have him as 7/4 fav .....even if by some miracle he were to win today do you really want to be on a horse rated 24 at 7/4 ???? its beyond me that anyone would back that but it happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: class in the first race at folk sire de grugy has a rating of 101 ....the only horse in the race to have a rating .........hes 2/5 but they have a huge mountain to climb !!!!! a class 2 horse running in class 5 race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: class 3.50 taunt today .....big hcap hurdle very competiive so good tester ... tenor nivernais 89 sft kings revenge 86 sft henry king 79 gd/sft causeway king 78 gd/sft todays prevailing ground is gd /sft .....tenor nivernais is a typical venetia williams improver and off low weight warrants max respect today ,but causeway king 16/1 off top weight could run well today .....plenty of weight but down in grade balances ,1 pt each for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: class sire de grugy won by 16 lengths .......nice,yet again its the big differnces that are the best results tenor de nivernais finished about 1length 3rd so very close (got a good run)....not bad 1 race to come Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: class well valley view won the last .....no luck today .cant for the life of me see why that horse would warrant going off at 4/5 though .better luck next time .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: class well valley view won the last .....no luck today .cant for the life of me see why that horse would warrant going off at 4/5 though .better luck next time .... You must not know how Jonjo O Neill works... If you did it would be clear as day as to how the horse won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: class yes i understand the j j o niel way ......what annoys me is how the bookies underprice these trainer and jockey combinations so badly that they must be laughing at punters who follow them because there is absolutely no value at all .i know they get their fair share of winners due to their training skills but they also have an awful lot of apparently "shocking" results when they had no chance to start with but were priced up evens fav when you balance it out punters are getting an extremely raw deal with these horses and because they are underpricing the horses actual chance the bookies are getting a fantastic deal .....the opposite to what a lot of punters think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: class i think the positve and negatives from this thread have been highlited so ill give it a rest for a while and just post up any big differences i spot or some of the big weekend races as appropriate .if anyone wants to spot or add anytime feel free .......going to concentrate on my speed ratings for now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Re: class walkon is the top rated horse in this big race totesport trophy ..first run -2 grd 2 and time befor that gr 1 big winner ......on class ratings he should run really well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Re: class never got in the race?....poor run indeed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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