10+10

[betting-place]

Hi all of you, This topic is motivated by http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/us-sports-spread-system-111370/ Well, I ve done some thinking and math and I want to share with you and to ask you am I in right. Regarding the topic : US SPORTS SPREAD SYSTEM by dear colege Xaviercito, I get idea to make calculation how does it staking system is acting throw loses serias. I shall excange with you my calculation with next conditions: Bank:1000 Stake:1% Bet wining posibility: 50% Did I make any mistakes in understanding of this? [url=http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/us-sports-spread-system-111370/]

[froment]

Re: 10+10 Well, from what I know, you didn't make any mistake - stakes, total lost and math possibility (I'd rather say probability) are correct. Though, what I don't understand (I don't say it's incorrect, I'm just struggling to understand) is last column, "Calc. to attempts"; I suppose you want to say that in out of 16 attempts, 1 attempt will result in 4 losses in a row, or 1 out of 512 attempts will result in 10 losses in a row (or is it 9, according to table?). I suppose you got those numbers using "Longest expected losing run" formula, and strike rate of 50%, therefore equal to bet probaility; so, (log(16)/-log(1-0.50)) is indeed 4, and (log(512)/-log(1-0.50)) is 9, but question is what is probability to hit that losing run, and it largely depends on your strike rate; therefore, you need to know how the system behaves over large enough number of matches. I'd calculate it this way: with strike rate of only 50% after 512 matches, probability to have losing run of 9 matches is ((1+(512-9)*0.50)*(1-0.50)^9), which is 49 %; though, with strike rate of 55%, probability to have such a bad streak drops to 21%. I cannot guarantee for accuracy of above formulas, but they showed to be logical in this case, as well as in some other cases I analyzed; source here: http://www.flatstats.co.uk/horseracing/index.php?cmd=article&id=154 And thumbs up for nice idea and clear spreadsheet, I like to see well organized table! :ok