Cycling - Tour down under

[ogii55]

Here we comes at the new cycling season. It will be opened with the Sprinters bounty at Tour of Australia, which starts from 18th January Six Stages are coming, all about them, including start lists, profiles, stages descriptions here: http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/santos-tour-down-under-upt-1 History of the race in the last few years here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tour_down_under There will be some very interesting battles among the best sprinters in the world including Cavendish, Farrar, Greipel, Robbie Mcewen, Graeam Brown, Allan Davis... It's maybe the strongest field in the last ten years. I have two ideas here for Overal winner. Simon Gerrans Blue Square 41.00 Former 2006 winner here. Managed to use some of the hilly stages to get some seconds margin against the sprinters. Now the stages are almost the same, including the first one to Angaston, that was won by him in 2006 and bring him the final victory. Gerrans made very strong season in 2008 and 2009, winning stages at Tour and Giro. He broke his arm in 2010 Tour and missed almost entire season until the end, participating in Vuelta, where rode for just 6-7 stages. 30-years old Australian is in very capable team here, that would help him a lot, including former winner Michael Rogers and capable sprinters as Matthew Hayman,Greg Henderson, Chris Sutton and Ben Swift, adding also Geraint Tomas. He may be able to capitalize on the pure sprinters battle if he managed to get some margin on the first or fifth stage (which also includes some very hilly sections) Gerald Ciolek 101 Blue Square The young German is mentioned as a replacement for long time top sprinter of the team Tom Boonen. He will make his debt at Tour down Under and is on a team with typical sprinter as Italian Francesco Chicci. Ciolek is a very strong time trialist and showed some nice qualities on small climbs. Capable to fight for points in the sprints finishers and will be far fresher then Greipel and Cav on some of the tougher stages. I am sure he will probably attack in the fifth stage in order to cut the best sprinters. Has common style as world champ Thor Hushovd, who won his title few months back here in Australia in common profile as the fifth Stage.

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Re: Cycling - Tour down under Stage 2 Head 2 Head Baden Cooke - Inaki Isasi 2.30 bet24.com Cooke is Australian and knows perfectly the stages here. He has some wins and a lot of nice placing in recent years. Finished 12-th in 1st stage, while Isasi was 8-th. Baden is far better sprinter then Spaniard if we look at his career results. He is a place contender in every stage, while it's tough to belive that Isasi may finish in Top 3 with such big bunch of classy sprinters!

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - Tour down under

Stage 2 Head 2 Head Baden Cooke - Inaki Isasi 2.30 bet24.com Cooke is Australian and knows perfectly the stages here. He has some wins and a lot of nice placing in recent years. Finished 12-th in 1st stage, while Isasi was 8-th. Baden is far better sprinter then Spaniard if we look at his career results. He is a place contender in every stage, while it's tough to belive that Isasi may finish in Top 3 with such big bunch of classy sprinters!

Bad luck for Baden, brought down after a crash in the final kms :( Issasi far away from the top places as expected

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - Tour down under Stage 3 H2H All odds from Pinnacle Sports Wesley Sulzberger vs Biel Kadri 1.926 Australian Sulzberger was 18-th and Kadri 26-th on Second stage, where the clear sprint got some obstacles, because of the crashes at the final KM. On the First stage, where also we have some crashes at the end Sulzberger was 40-th, while Kadri - 30-th. At all Kadri is a puncheur or Klimber and would probably in better prestart odds for 5-th Hilly stage. The Frenchman will have some support role for his Ag2R team. Sulzberger has some more freedom, because of the status of his UNI-SA Australia team, where we don't have a clear sprinter. Wesley participate for the third year at Tour Down Under, finishing last year 21-st overal and on 2009 he had twice Top 15 placings. Silzberger showed not a bad form with a third place at Jayco Bay cycling classic few days before the start of Tour Down Under. He was 3rd in Stage 3 sprint beating very good sprinters as Baden Cooke, world junior champ Michael Mathews, Matthew Goss, Allan Davis, Chris Sutton..... Johnatan Cantwell - Gorka Izagirre 2.00 Cantwell is another Australian with nice experience over Green continent roads. A typical sprinter with some very good results in last two seasons. Last year scored twice Top 15 results at Tour Down Under. He is also member of UNI-SA Australian team and will play for himself. Won already strong criterium this year in Australia The Spaniard is part of Euskatel team, who came here without a strong sprinter. In the first stage Cantwell was 37 against 61 for Izagirre Second stage Izagire 15 - Cantwell 16 (this is the reason for such odds). Wesley Sulzberger - Ivan Velasco 1.71 See up for Sulzberger. Velasco never been a sprinter. Another member of Euskatel band, which will probably try themself in the breakouts on 5th Stage. The Spaniard never had a Top 20 placing in all the Grand tour he participated. Typical help boy, who is far from contesting against local and talanted in form sprinter.

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Re: Cycling - Tour down under Stage 3 H2H Robbie Mcewen - Mathew Goss 2.86 Pinnacle Both contenders for the overal win. Goss was in great position to attack in the first stage and succeed, while Mcewen is consistent in finishes as always with a third and second place. Goss is good uphill sprinter, but Mcewen is in really good form. Two years in a row Goss struglled to keep with the front group in this stage. While last year Mcewen showed that he may finish with the final small break up, consisting strong pacers as Cadel Evans and entire Valverde Caisse's team. Now Robbie is in better team, who for sure will work for him - Armstrong, Robbie Hunter and last year's stage winner Mauel Cardoso, Gregory Rast. HTC may suffer from the profile of the stage and it may affect Goss performance. For sure we will not see well known train. I expect some strong attacks at the final steps from Richie Porte and Simon Gerrans.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - Tour down under 0/4 0/5 overall h2h with -5 to 1 pt bet Seems need to make better studies!

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Re: Cycling - Tour down under 4^th Stage seems to be more for the sprinters, but all the day there will be ups and downs. Manuele Morri – Luke Roberts 2.59 Here Luke Roberts is far better puncheur then Morri. The race will be decided via bunch sprint probably, but for sure the profile is hilly enough to see some attacks. Roberts may try to fight for mountain jersey today and maybe will try to get to the group of 30+ riders for the final sprint. Yesterday both Morri and Roberts were at the final sprint with Luke finishing 5-th and more 13-th. Last years Australian Roberts showed some good sprint qualities in this kind of stages. Even if he didn’t fight for today mountain points tomorrow Willungs hills will be decisive, because of the two Mountain classification bonuses. 2.50 is good enough to be played. Francisco Ventoso – Fabio Sabatini 1.63 Ventoso was ahead of Sabatini in all three stages. The difference was bigger in the previous hilly stage. Today Sabatini may face the same problem. Fabio must work for Elia Viviani, the best sprinter of Liquigas, while Ventoso is the top selection of Movistar for GC after time loss of Rojas Gil Elia Viviani – Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil 1.943 Viviani is 2:1 in the previous stages against Rojas Gil. The young Italian is still in contention for good placing in GC and will be hungry for upper placing and probably some time or points. Rojas Gil now must play for Ventoso, because of his time loss. Seems Gil is not in his best shape here. Mathew Goss – Andre Greipel 2.060 Australian showed better form then Greipel. HTC train is far better with the names inside, but never have a chance to organize properly. In the third stage Goss suffered a puncture, otherwise I think he would finished ahead of Greipel. Mathew may handle better in the hills before the last downhill kms. Allan Davis – Dennis Galimzyanov 1,67 Davis, a former winner here, seems to find his form in the third stage. Until now he is 2:1 vs Galimzyanov h2h and he is far better sprinter on book. Allan knows very well the roads and will try to impress here. Baden Cooke – David Vigano 1.926 Before the start of the race Cooke for sure would be a strong favorite in this H2H. He knows very well the roads and had amazing experience here. But Baden don’t have luck after the crash in Stage two. He is still in contention for GC. Vigano is not a bad sprinter, but missed almost entire last season. I think Baden Cooke will try to impress on this stage, because on the hills tomorrow he probably will suffer.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - Tour down under Adding another bet Baden Cooke Top 3 15.00 Unibet Baden suffered a lot this year because of the fall in the second stage. He is a clear contender for Top 3, because of his qualities. Saxo has great lead out team with Haedo brothers, but until now they cant score on their potential. However now it's very nice chance to do so. Baden has a total of 10 placings in his career at Tour Down Under Stages, despite he didn;t show great form previous season, still is capable to surprise other guys here and to make a good performance! All the bets on H2H and here are with 1 pt.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - Tour down under Yesterday 3 out of 6 on H2H and -1 point from place betting a total of -1.5 loss Total of -6,5 from the start of the Tour excluding overall bets - still pending there Rate 3/12 (3/11 h2h) Today probably will be decisive stage. A chance for Gerrans, Ballan or Luke Roberts to strike in the hills! Andre Greipel – Robbie McEwen 3.15 Unibet Greipel seems to suffer in some hills section. He has very good team to work, but last year he was the leader just before Willunga hills stage once again with very good team. He failed to defend Ochre Jercey and find himself behind Robbie McEwen at the stage sprint. Now it’s almost the same position, but Greipel is far away from the leaders and even Robbie is ahead of him in the GC. McEwen saved himself yesterday and today for sure will be a contender in the sprint. Odds for me are 50-50 and 3.050 for Robbie is a Value to Play. Francisco Ventoso – Manuele Mori 1.85 Pinnacle Ventoso is a GC contender. He already showed a lot better placements then Mori, who is two places behind him in GC. The Spaniard may count to his good climbers at the team, while Mori probably will not last the hills. Ventoso is better sprinter then Mori. Elia Viviani – Roman Feillu 2.39 Pinnacle Both very capable sprinters. Until now it’s 2:2. Italian is still in contention for GC. Feillu probably may try to keep his forces for last stage, where he may not be strike by the hills. Viviani showed some better form in uphill finishes. Once again it’s 50-50, but with the odds for Viviani! Simon Gerrans – Luke Roberts 2.17 Simon Gerrans is in better form then Luke Roberts, who made great stage last year here, finishing second. Now both will try to climb into GC and will attack for sure into the hills. Gerrans has the better team. He is also the better sprinter from both, so if they came together in one group, Gerrans has better chances.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - Tour down under Just to add for the last bet - Luke Roberts will attack the hills early for the KOM competition and probably will lost some forces if his break up will be catch by the others!

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling - Tour down under Last summery o0f my play here Only Ventoso won his H2H in Stage 5 So the total is -11,5 points with the stakes of 1 Pt, including Overall winners H2H -4.65 p. 4/15 I will try to follow UCI calendar this year and to play just H2H Will keep a total calculations of the bets and profit/loss!