Race categories

[jayalexander]

Today Fred Willetts came in as a 9/1 winner, three days after winning a claimer by 7 lengths at the same track. This time it was a handicap, against 5 other horses, which included two 'in-form' runners. He was only tipped by Trotter on the BBOTD at ew, and I opted for Shostakovich, but now I'm asking questions as to why myself and others missed such an opportunity? Just looking at Fred's previous record and he had been running pretty well in his 2yo races prior to the claimer - returning money in the last three 2yo encounters! Why do we dismiss supposedly 'low' claimer and seller results so easily? For me it's another lesson learnt!

[chris34]

Re: Race categories For me it was a race not too touch, I did look in depth at it actually Fred Willets win in a claimer couldnt be taken as gospel as it was a 3 runner race which is always very dodgy form, and to that southwell a track liable to unexplainable results, he had already been well beaten off lower marks in handicaps but possibly the Visor is a reason he has improved although Evans has a good record with placing his AW horses in races to pick up money.

[jayalexander]

Re: Race categories Yeah I did see that the claimer was only a 3 horse affair and that's what probably put me off in the end. I really thought this one would be out of Shostakovich and Even Stevens.

[Trotter]

Re: Race categories I tipped it to win, jay............:unsure:tongue2 I'm not at all put off by horses going into handicaps from claimers or sellers.........in fact i quite like it because of the better odds you often get. On the aw you often get 80s rated horses running in claimers and something rated 60 will run well against them, then go into a 0-65 handicap. Also the handicapper rarely raises horses for runs in claimers/sellers...............so you can get an improving horse running in those races then going back to a handicap off it's old mark before it hit form The horse doesn't know what kind of race it's running in Speed figs are useful - I had Fred running faster in that 3 runner claimer than Even Steven or Shostokovich had run in handicaps. But every now and then you notice a horse that only runs well in sellers/claimers and gets stuffed every time it runs in a handicap. Maybe Ilie Nastase for example ?

[cpo]

Re: Race categories I had a look at the race for my placepot. In trying to win a bigger pot I thought the 2nd had the best chance other than the top 2 so went with that one in my pot. Didn't really have a proper look at the race though. So is she won a maiden quite impressively before getting hammered by Fred so I think that win was a decent run especially the way he pulled away from so is she. Wish I had backed it now but had all my dough on waaheb at leopardstown. great shout, great price :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: Race categories I've read several books by Andrew Beyer and when he first started his speed ratings he was able to back some decent priced winners based on their speed ratings rather than their 'class'. There is a tendancy to pass over claimers stepping back in to handicaps over here (I certainly do) and as Trotter has his own figures - and they highlight cases like today, it could be a very productive area.