Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase

[BillyHills]

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[ganjaman]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase The Irish have had 15 Winners in this race the last was Weapons Amnesty in 2010 Arkle won this race in 1963 and went off the shortest priced winner at 4/9 with the longest-priced winner the following year Hussard Collonges and Canny Danny both at 33/1. Willie Mullins is the current trainer with most winners in the race with 3 winners Rule Supreme (2004), Florida Pearl (1998) and Cooldine (2009) There have been 7 horses that have won this race and gone on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

[Goldikova]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase My original fancy for this race was 12/1 when i didn't have a shilling to back him with(Time for Rupert). Now he's best priced 11/4 so it's a little thin for me as i want something at a bigger price. I took Mikael D'Haguenet at 10/1 thinking he was a great price after his fall, and a small bet at 16s after his defeat. He's a bloody enigma this horse. On top of that the trainer is keeping it schtum. I know, as does every other Tom, Dick and Harry what potential this horse has. He has RSA written all over him in my eyes. However i have my doubts that he will even make it to the festival.

[billvernon]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Time for Rupert does look class bit short though

[Goldikova]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase He definitely is class and he is a bit short. There's no point in the 9/4 or 11/4 when he was 7/4 to win the Argento. I'm waiting for Mikael to reappear. I think if he jumps and wins he will be RSA bound, with the wonderful Quel Esprit going to the Jewsons novices. I hold 10s and 16s for MDH, and if they stand come the festival i will be chuffed to bits.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Time For Rupert has been a favourite of mine since inching out Inchidaly Rock at 50/1 at Aintree. I saw something there, which was reiterated with its success in a handicap hurdle in December 2009 and his beloved Cheltenham. Having been nudged along by Will Kennedy for a long way, his overdrive kicked in and responding to pressure, stayed on powerfully to lead at the last before charging up the Cheltenham hill. This performance showed its guts, stamina and jumping ability in abundance. It looked a top class chaser in the making. Not many staying hurdlers will have to face a horse with the undoubted class of Big Bucks, but Rupert's effort in the World Hurdle was another worthy of a lot of credit. It went clear, leaving some decent horses behind Big Bucks and itself, and despite BB cantering all over Rupert, he didn't back down and allow the inevitable to happen. His tenacity was on full show again. This did make it a 12/1 shot for the RSA, but it was obvious that Rupert was going to make a fine chaser. Especially with a bit of give in the ground. 7/2 was a fair price for its chasing debut - considering its absence and with the trip on the sharp side. It needed to be urged along by Kennedy, but drew clear to score by 8l. A feat which was repeated next time out. Hell's Bay, Reve De Sivola and Chicago Grey are no mugs, either. All of a sudden it's not at a backable price ante-post for the RSA, but it really has an almighty chance. It won't trample all over the opposition, it tends to need pushing along - sometimes even from quite a way out - but there's no need to worry. When the guts and stamina kick in, you can start counting your money. Jumped excellently, as expected, so far too. Just can't see anything beating it assuming the ground is suitable and all preparations go to plan. Then we can see him mix it with the big boys. I expect Rupert to win a Gold Cup, and he's coming into a generation where it's exceptionally possible. A lot of quality...perhaps not the style to match, but a lot of charm.

[diamond1924]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Jessie's Dream anyone?

[billvernon]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase I think Jessies Dream is bang in there with Time for Rupert - If Realt Dubh or Noble Prince were running the irish would be lumping on after their last race - Jessie Dream beat Realt 5 lengths and Noble prince 4 lengths and also looked like winning against Mikael Du Hugeuneot even though everyone says mikael looked like he was going to win. Even though he was 2nd to magnamity it was close and it was probrably to quick a turn out after his last run the form looks good 112 and also by presenting sire so yes I think a great chance . Bags of stamina although probably a bit tired last race - bounce factor has a good break upto festival should give a good account. Only issue is lack of Cheltenham form - Whereas Time For Rupert is has got Cheltenham experience and is not short of giving a gutsy staying performance - I will be surprised if its not between these two . Jessie is the better E/W price :hope

[Goldikova]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase The price for Jessies dream will only look as good as it does if this big beast of a horse Mikael doesn't go. I've had another small punt at 14s this time. They've known from day one that this could be a proper Gold Cup horse. Willie Mullins said it himself after he won at the festival over hurdles. It's pretty unusual for him to talk so far down the line. Potentially good jumper do make bad mistakes, just look at Diamond Harry. If he jumps on Sunday he will be hard to beat, which will make the 10s,14s and 16s look very sweet with Ruby waiting to get back. He's 5 times the price of the favourite who in his own right is brilliant. It isn't a hard decision for me.

[Goldikova]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Today is a big day for voucher holders. If MDH can beat the wonderful Quel Esprit, then there isn't much he can't beat. Quel Esprit is one serious horse. I was happy when they had separate targets. I was kinding hoping they would have separate targets so they can get better festival ideas. QE makes me feel a bit edgey about the whole thing. He travels wonderfully, and can jump for days. His display against Torphicen is very underestimated.:sad

[billvernon]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Hmmm interesting result Boston's Angel won and close 2nd by Magnamity - Mikael was 3rd can we blame that on Quel esprit fall ??? or is Mikael better going Hurdling . I am annoyed as had him on my top ten to follow.Bit of a crap season for him. I do fancy Jessies Dream as a good e/w

[ganjaman]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase sorry info in wrong thread

[billvernon]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Hi Ganjamam I think this is in the wrong Section should it not be in the Arkle page ?

[ganjaman]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase RSA CHASE TRENDS 2011 The RSA Chase takes place on day 2 of the Festival and is run over 3 miles and 110 yards. This race attracts novice chasers bred with a pedigree with more of an emphasis on stamina than speed. Horses that run well in this race often go on to glory in the King George or Cheltenham Gold Cup the following season. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 1-1-6 6yo: 0-6-21 7yo: 8-9-54 8yo: 1-4-25 9yo+: 0-0-17 7yos have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race and accounted for 17 of 30 places from approximately 44% of the runners. 5yos now only receive a 1lb age allowance,meaning it's much tougher for them to win this. The last 5yo winner received 10lb allowance. No horse aged 9+ has made the frame in past 10 renewals. Gender Mares (0-0-6) have failed to make the places with any of their 6 representatives in the last 10 runnings. 4 of the 6 went off shorter than 10/1. Breeding Irish Bred: 8-12-75 French Bred: 2-4-25 English Bred: 0-4-18 Other: 0-0-5 Irish and French bred horses have won the last 10 runnings of this race, with Irish bred winning 8 of 10 (last 4) from approximately 61% of total runners. Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time out 9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases 10 of 10 winners had their last run between 24 and 55 days ago 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+ 8 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase 10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 10 times over hurdles 10 of 10 winners had not run under flat rules The 10 winners had previously run in a combined 38 chases the season they won the RSA Chase and of those 38 they fell in 3 and finished in the first 3 in the other 35. Other Races Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner: 53142 (1-2-5) 3M ½F Cheltenham November Nov Ch (Wayward Prince): 21P (1-1-3) Rising Star Novice Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 8127 (1-1-4) Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Cois Farraig): 21P5 (1-1-4) Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 4U3B71F (1-1-7) 2M 4½F Cheltenham November Nov Ch (Time For Rupert): 1 (1-0-1) Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle winner (Berties Dream): 1 (1-0-1) Feltham Novice Chase winner: 623663 (0-3-6) Worcester Novice Chase winner (Aiteen Thirtythree): F336P (0-2-5) Towton Novice Chase winner (Wayward Prince): 52 (0-1-2) Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 2FF (0-1-3) Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Jessies Dream): 2UF (0-1-3) Fort Leney Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): FPBF5 (0-0-5) 2 of 3 Irish-trained winners (last 2) ran in Dr PJ Moriarty, finishing 12 2 of 10 winners ran in Matalan And NSPCC Novices' Chase, finishing 12 2 of 10 winners ran in the Dipper Novices' Chase, finishing F3 2 of 10 winners ran in the Feltham Novices' Chase, finishing 23 Trainers Willie Mullins (2-2-8) has done extremely well in this race recently, winning it in ’98, ’04 and ’09 and filling the runners-up spot in ’00 and ’07. His 4 unplaced runners all fell when still in with a chance. Paul Nicholls (2-1-8) has won 2 of the last 5 runnings (’06 and ’07). Nicky Henderson (1-2-8) trained the winner in 2005 and also saddled the 2nd and 3rd last year. Philip Hobbs (1-1-5), Henrietta Knight (1-1-5) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-3) have each won the race once in the last 10 runnings. Irish trained runners (3-4-31) have won 3 of last 10 renewals, including last 2. Price 3 of the last 4 renewals have gone to the favourite but this has been a race that an outsider can win with 4 of the last 10 winners going off at prices of 10/1, 14/1, 25/1 and 33/1. Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.45. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 7 · Irish or French bred (particularly Irish) · Finished in first 2 last time · Had last run between 24 and 55 days ago · Run in 3 to 5 chases · Finished in the first 3 in all completed chase starts · Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase · Won over at least 2M 5F · Ran no more than 10 times over hurdles & never run on the flat · Trained by Willie Mullins or Paul Nicholls

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Quinz winning the RP done no harm to Rupert's chances :tongue2 Looking like the Festival banker to me as long as the absence isn't a big negative!

[beaker1]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase

I think Jessies Dream is bang in there with Time for Rupert - If Realt Dubh or Noble Prince were running the irish would be lumping on after their last race - Jessie Dream beat Realt 5 lengths and Noble prince 4 lengths and also looked like winning against Mikael Du Hugeuneot even though everyone says mikael looked like he was going to win. Even though he was 2nd to magnamity it was close and it was probrably to quick a turn out after his last run the form looks good 112 and also by presenting sire so yes I think a great chance . Bags of stamina although probably a bit tired last race - bounce factor has a good break upto festival should give a good account. Only issue is lack of Cheltenham form - Whereas Time For Rupert is has got Cheltenham experience and is not short of giving a gutsy staying performance - I will be surprised if its not between these two . Jessie is the better E/W price :hope

the thing i dont like about jessies dream is that hes not won over fences going left handed

[billvernon]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase 17th Jan 2009 - Naas Left Hand Undulating Testing Galloping Track - 1st Won 29th Dec 2009 - Leopardstown Every chance going well - fell - Zaarito won 9th Jan 2011 - Leopardstown 3/4 Length 2nd giving 7lbs in Soft to Heavy ground. I think that Jessies Dream runs ok on Left hand courses he goes on most types of ground - yes he did drift right at the last but no where in any of the description ohf his other left hand races does it mention jumping right or loosing ground because of that. I still think he is a good e/w but appreciate your comment beaker1:ok

[beaker1]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase 17th jan 2009 nh flat race 29th december -fell 9th jan 2011 -2nd my point mate was that hes never won a chase going left handed :ok

[billvernon]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Got to admit I did not check that his win was NH Flat race - so apoligies Beaker1 but note I did say I was wary as no Cheltenham form and to do e/w as he is still placing in good races.on undulating tracks. I still think he is a good horse against the short favourite but Time for Rupert is class and has Chelt form and stays. I would be happier if he had ran this side of christmas though. :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase

I would be happier if he had ran this side of christmas though. :ok

My only concern. Doesn't have a brilliant record fresh - but did win on its chase/seasonal debut so hopefully not too much of a worry. The only thing that will beat it is himself. There's nothing capable of beating it on the book in my opinion, and couldn't ask for better conditions so long as there isn't a sudden drought in Cheltenham! If it had run in the Argento and won that then there would be no concerns at all for me. Kennedy and Webber seem happy though. Someone did tell me that Nicholls really fancies Aiteen though? I wonder if Rupert could be a good in-play bet though. Probably will be a few who travel better (Rupert is often just niggled - possibly moreso over hurdles). Could go to a decent price in running.

[who?me?]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase

If it had run in the Argento and won that then there would be no concerns at all for me.

However if Time for Rupert had won the Argento, by all accounts connections would have been tempted to go for the Gold Cup, which would have been a mistake IMO. I think he could be a serious Gold Cup contender in years to come - but not this year.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase

However if Time for Rupert had won the Argento, by all accounts connections would have been tempted to go for the Gold Cup, which would have been a mistake IMO. I think he could be a serious Gold Cup contender in years to come - but not this year.

Possibly, think regardless this route is best with potential shots at the Hennessey?/King George/GC. Would have a lot of weight in the former though, especially if it were to win the RSA. I certainly think he has every chance of being a future Gold Cup winner. Has very few flaws. Not a bad place to love going round, Cheltenham, either :D

[TheRat]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase If the wins the RSA likely campaign next year will surely be for a crack at the GC Looking at contenders this year you would think it is a good time too

[beaker1]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase i think the giant bolster has a good e/way chance in this,he was still in contention in time for ruperts race at the open meeting when falling at the 12th and hes won his other 2 chase starts,hes best when fresh,his record when rested for at least six weeks reads 1211 [3-4] and he will go to cheltenham after a 46 day lay-off -16/1 with w/hill

[bowles10]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase RSA CHASE AITEENTHIRTYTHREE 1pt win - 8/1 >Bet365 I have just done this race and see this horse as exceptional value at 8/1. Personally i think it will start around 5/1 on Wednesday. The bookies have TFR short in the market due to its 2 wins so far this season but not having a run since 11th Dec is a massive negative for the favourite and 2/ is far too short. 1833 would become the first horse in 0 years apart from Denman to win this unbeaten over fences but Nicholls will know what he has and has already stated this horse is his next star and will line up in the Hennessey in November 2011. The race looks a fairly decent contest with 2 horses from Ireland merit respect but there are enough negatives across the entire field and i cant find anything wrong with this one.

[kashiwazaki]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Listen guys, I know these kind of messages get posted on internet forums all the time, however today I have spoken to a guy that is very well informed indeed. The guy has given me just 8 horses since I have known him and they have all won. As with any info it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, and I will certainly not be going overboard with this myself, but he says JESSIE'S DREAM is expected to win by connections. As I say he has been correct so far but that dont mean this one will. Might give a warm feeling to those who have already backed it so just passing on what I heard. Will only be a small bet for me "just in case"

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase

Listen guys, I know these kind of messages get posted on internet forums all the time, however today I have spoken to a guy that is very well informed indeed. The guy has given me just 8 horses since I have known him and they have all won. As with any info it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, and I will certainly not be going overboard with this myself, but he says JESSIE'S DREAM is expected to win by connections. As I say he has been correct so far but that dont mean this one will. Might give a warm feeling to those who have already backed it so just passing on what I heard. Will only be a small bet for me "just in case"

Without wanting to devalue what you've said - and all info is worthwhile around now, but I've heard loads of people say yards expect their horse to win. They can't all be right! Nicholls is very keen on 1833, and I imagine the connections of TFR reckon he's expected to win etc...

[kashiwazaki]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase oh yeah dont get me wrong I take it with a pinch of salt and for me the horse doesnt fit the trends - just the fella has been right so many times that's all (but everyone has losers so it will be no surprise if this gets beat) as I say just a tiny bet for me - all my major bets are on my own selections

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Fair play. I guess I just don't want to hear anything other than positive stuff regarding Time For Rupert! :tongue2

[mileni4uk]

Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase I like 1833, but Ruby has chosen Mikael D'Haguenet and after such a disappointing novice campaign I thought he'd be on 1833. It shows which one of the two he rates. I thought he'd ignore Mikael after all this year's disappointments. Ruby usually knows what to choose and is a major worry he's not on 1833 imo.