Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase

[billvernon]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I have been looking at the Gold Cup and it is one hell of a race - Everyone says its not one of the best - but seriously how could they say that it looks a brilliant Gold Cup - what I think they mean is it is a bit of a minefield trying to find a horse that stands out and looks like a definite winner a ryanair winner,an irish hennessy gold cup winner, 3 Gold Cup winners and a 2 King George Winners .In my book thats a brilliant field of Runners and I think its looking like a classic - over the last few years it has mostly been dominated at most by two horses that everyone fancied this year there seems to be more in with a genuine chance - 9 horses OR Rated over 162 - all the stats scream Kauto and Denman at 11yo & even Imperial Commander 10yo maybe to old and Long Run 6yo is to young but stats are there to be broken Denman and Kauto and Imperial are class horses been there wore the T-SHIRT I can see 2 of them making the frame (Denman & Imperial) "long Run is to young and is crap at the Cheltenham" . So 3rd in the Paddy Power and 3rd in the RSA is crap !!! is it ? 1st in the King George in quite an authorative manner at a pace that equalled Kauto's best run the year before.I think Long Run stands a great chance he has been over chases 9 times in his career (a window that seems to work regarding Gold Cup - Imperial was the same last year)he has the relevant experience - yes he might get caught out by the undulations of the track but Henderson states his jumping has got better that was what the issue was - its looking likely that it might rain on Friday looking at the forcast the breeder of Long Run said he will win if it is on the soft side.He might not win as he is 6 but hell neither will Kauto Denman or Imperial - What does that mean then scrap all 4 and look elsewhere - so a new boy comes in and there you go lads a Classic waiting to happen and a pinsticker horse comes in at a great e/w price. Come on Friday :clap

[billvernon]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I have re-looked at the Gold cup and the only one that keeps jumping at me it has to be the favourite IMPERIAL COMMANDER - he has only ran 12 Chase races and loves Cheltenham - runs well after long absences and also his pace in his only race this season where he was not fired up was good.I know that the vibes have been a bit shakey but then again its the same for most of the horses - They said the other day that they are much happier with his last spin so I am going to say that he is your most likely winner - too many question marks about Long Run at Cheltenham (gingertipser - I reluctantly agree with you )and only a 6yo (Last winner 6yo 46 races ago !!) if he runs his race - can see him being placed - I know you have to go back to 1998 regarding Imperial Commanders age 10yo for a winner but he is lightly raced and definetly has brilliant form at Cheltenham.:hope

[billvernon]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase The new boys are Kempes 11/1 8yo - LTO ran 34 days ago - 1st in Hennessy Gold Cup has had 9 Chase Runs - 12th in only race at Cheltenham.Trained by Willie Mullins - WHO IS IN FORM - OR 162 goes any ground Ticks a lot of Boxes Pandorama 14/1 8yo - LTO ran 80 days ago - 1st Lexus Chase - only had 5 Chase Runs but classy horse beat weapons Amnesty the RSA Chase winner 2010 last year. OR 163 - no race at Cheltenham & prefers softer ground. Midnight Chase 14/1 9YO - LTO ran 98 !! Days ago - 1st Dec 2010 - Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) (3m1f110y) 3m1½f Good 18 fences 2 omitted 11 Chase Runs and a Cheltenham Race specialist 1st 1st 1st all at cheltenham this season.OR 163 - Handicapper though ?? Using the Age Statistic and taking out of list - Long Run 6yo, Kauto Star 11yo & Denman 11yo. leaves Imperial Commander 10/3 , Kempes 11/1,Midnight Chase 14/1,Pandorama 14/1 Last horse to win at 16/1 plus - was "See More Business" in 1999 Horses winning The Gold Cup priced @ 10/1 or less were 71/82 --- 86% of racings of the Gold Cup The last horse to win aged 5yo,6yo ,11yo,12yo was more than 40 races ago it was a 12yo.

[fredward]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Weird Al was fancied for the hennessy but picked up an injury and finished a well beaten 8th. Putting a line through the old timers I think Weird Al has a great e/w chance provided he lines up fit and well. Has the right profile of a winner and also has cheltenham form dead heating with Little Josh giving him 6 pounds. 50/1 e/w with VC

[bowles10]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Bill, my stats all centre around the 7-9yo bracket for the GC however perhaps these are the bvst 3 10-11yo's seen for years so that stat may not be viable this year. I havent decided yet how to play !!

[Rondetto]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase If the real Kauto Star turns up he'll most likely win as he is/was the best horse in training by quite some way. Howver if he has gone the race will then become a war of attrition with the new brigade adding quite a bit of spice to the rcae. The most likely winner for me is Pandorma who has less miles on his clock, stays, jumps well and has a very good trun of foot to ensure he can go with the Denman kick. Wouldn't go past him if the real Kauto didn't turn up so best i back them both.

[TheRat]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase When you say the real Kauto Star you mean the one from 2 years ago? We have not seen him at his best for a while now and I can't see him winning. I hope he does but my head says no. Tough race though and I have 3 ante post bets in the race but I am not confident about any

[Rondetto]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Took the risk Pandorama would trun up so happy the gamble seems to have paid off. Just think it could be time for anew order and he's got everything you'd want in a Gold Cup horse. I was listening to Paul Nichols talking about some young chaser progressing and going for the Gold Cup next season saying it would be a different Gold Cup next year. I thought that was a bit wierd coming from a man who has spent the last few months trying to convince us that Kuato Star is as good as ever, only 10 etc etc. As Brough Scott said you ask any trainer how his horse is he'll tell you llike a boxing manager does, he's in the best shape of his life. Funny thing is Kauto Star is so good he actually could win yet another Gold Cup. Someone mentioned Mill House running in it when he was 10 years old. Arkle had been retired due to injury and Mill House was tanking through the race and most likley would have won but fell so not all horses, French or not go off the boil at the same age. What A Myth went hunting came back at 12 years old and won it. Basically there's no way youcan with any confidence write off Kuato Star because he wouldn't need to be within 10lbs oif his best to win. I'll stickwith pandorama (no choice really) have a bet on Kauto. I backed Tidal bay when he won the Arkle but looking back I must have been as mad as he is. Kauto Denman Imperial or Pandorama win I'll cheer them home but if that monkey Tidal bay wins it will be a poor day for NH racing.

[mowgli77]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I'm happy with my Tidal Bay bet because I got 33's and 1/4 odds first 4 with that special Stan James offer and I posted it in here too. I don't buy this about Long Run not running well at Cheltenham, I think people are forgetting it was an inexperienced 5 yr old last year and the run in the Paddypower Gold Cup this November was not as bad as people suggest, they let Little Josh go off too far in front and had no chance of reeling it in. I haven't decided if I'm backing it yet but I think it will be in the shake up as they come up the home straight. I don't fancy Denman or Kauto this year. I rate Weird Al but was hoping it would go for the other race (Ryanair) and feel it is up against it but has an ew chance at a big price. I think it could be a very good Gold Cup this year.

[kashiwazaki]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Very interesting thread fellas - a really good read, so thanks! I am definitely in the trends camp and I tend to try and decide what I think the KEY trend for a race is and in this race I believe the key trend is AGE. Specifically I am going to bet that no horse aged 10 or older will win and the best way I see to play this "shot" is to lay the trio of Imperial Commander, Denman and Kauto and to have the field run for me. I appreciate that they are 3 of the the first 4 in the market but I really dont fancy Kauto and Denman at 11yo and cant see either winning which if I am right means I am really laying IC at around 7/4 which looks value.

[london punter]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase i backed Weird al months ago for this race , just glad hes made it , Kempes won well last time , they are my 2 ew in the gold cup this year.

[King's Theatre]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase The ground will be all important - think they're due a bit of rain tomorrow morning, in which case Pandorama will run and Denman will be at a greater advantage at the expense of Kauto. A bit of cut would probably suit Imperial too, would lend to almost the same conditions as last year. I don't think Denman will win but he's the one to rate this race around, and at 2.64 on Betfair to be placed I think that's great value. We don't know about Imperial's injury, it seems it was quite serious and he had a lucky escape, but bigger than 4/1 on Betfair is ridiculous for a horse with the best bit of form in the race. Don't think he's being respected enough. If he runs similar to last season's Gold Cup he should win again.

[robbiefpb]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I love this thread and totally respect just about every comment in it. For my two pence worth, I think anyone who has NOT already had a bet would be mad to have one before we see the horses in the parade ring. There are just so many questions that have no certain answers that the only way to play this race is to take what you know + what you presume might be the case and then perm it with what the runners actually turn out looking like in the ring. At that point i'll make my pick, but I won't be getting heavily involved as this is just so not the race to get rich on. However, what I am massively looking forward to is a Gold Cup with a lot of serious contenders that is a total puzzle and could turn out to be one of the all time absolute classics and at least we are all alive, healthy and able to tell everyone else we were there and saw it! Good luck to all and lets hope they all come home safe.

[robbiefpb]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Sorry to blather on, but only caveat I will add to previous post is this; LONG RUN WILL NOT WIN! Stats are so clear; 1. A 6yo hasn't won this in the last 21 renewals. 2. It doesn't have proven Cheltenham form 3. An amateur jockey hasn't won since the festival became the true Olympics of NH racing 4. Feel free to add you own reasons, lol

[robbiefpb]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Oh, and my father in law has napped it, and he's a total moron, roflmao

[kashiwazaki]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase you say Long Run wont win and I say Imperial, Denman and Kauto wont either. That's the first 4 in the win market then. I reckon Lomg Run might do it and have laid the other 3

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Imperial Commander for me looks the safer option of the 4 market leaders. On another track I would probably take Long Run, but less certain here. I think Denman will beat Kauto but Imperial Commander has an incredible record fresh/at Cheltenham and I think it could win again. Wouldn't lump on anything though.

[robbiefpb]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Couldn't agree with you more Bathtime. Its Totally NOT a lump on race, but what it COULD be is is an all time classic.

[robbiefpb]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase kashiwazaki - Weird Al then? It the bet that fits and massive odds. Got to be a punt to nothing then at 25's on BF?:ok

[london punter]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase weird al has a squeek he likes cheltenham , needs to improve a bit , but not a superstar in the race this year , kauto and denman been top horses , not the forces they were and IC very beatable , long run likes flat tracks , can see a fair price winner this year

[kashiwazaki]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase maybe so robbie I'm in a good position because I have effectively laid Kauto, IC and Denman at odds on by getting the best prices throughout the year by iteratively relaying them so I will be delighted if Weird Al wins.

[owenclass]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase im hearing good things about Long Run and Kempes could be a surprise placing

[Rondetto]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase If the ground has no cut in it I have to worry about Pandorama my original selection but it's a huge plus for Kauto Star. Ruby kind of scoffed at the idea of Imperial Commander doing the double sighting his Haydock form as not being too clever. He did say Kuato wasn't as quick as he was but is in great form. The fact he has a chance of regaining the Gold Cup for a second time is a fantastic training feat by Paul Nichols and nothing would give me greater pleasure than watching him storm up the hill again. I can't be having Long Run he's way too dodgy round here and can't believe one good round at Kempton and all his worries are over. If Wierd Al wins I'll run round Trafalgar Square naked shouting "I'm my maws bug tufty wean" Kempes could run well if he stays but that was one bad race he won in Irleland despite some good horse in opposition. They beat themselves with poor peroformances to be honest. Denman I never fancied to beat kauto before but he did but nowadays on this ground? Way too big an ask but who knows if the others under perform he could easily become the 2nd horse to regain the Gold Cup. All just opinions but we'll know for sure. Rock on Kauto!!!:ok

[billvernon]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase At the moment I am still looking at the race - all the stats scream old horses do not do well - Kauto and Denman both 11 yo And Long Run is a 6yo last 6yo was in 1963 - year I was born I really think that is a big hurdle to overcome excuse the Pun ;) Imperial Commander is 10yo and they have the most recent win history winner in 1998 looking at history each decade has had a 10 year old in it except 2000 - 2010 I think 5/30 Gold Cups last 30 runnings is not a bad stat for 10 year olds and also we are due a 10 year old Imperial Commander has had 12 runs(lightly raced enters golden window 9 - 12 runs) over Chases he excels at Cheltenham after long breaks . I cannot believe Nigel Twiston Davies would not have him up to scratch for this race. Imperial Commander 4/1 at time of this post they say price will go out before the off. Repoted by Racingpost its Good Ground - he travels well on Good Ground. Also i think the Bookies and betting community are singing and hyping regarding the position in the market of Denman & Kauto they want the punters money . I love the old boys and would love nothing better than one to win but this is a no I think. Kauto 15/2 Denman 15/2 No value at each way prices to be had - scratch them Long Run 6yo (last 1963) -Has got required 9 runs and ran a brilliant King George against a below par Kauto Star.Questions about ability to handle Cheltenham Undulations and also Ground conditions would be better if softer . I am going to say place at best due to his recent win and chase runs - 5/1 at moment - no value Next Kempes 9/1 won recently - 9 chase runs - Wears a Tongue Strap ?? Stamina Issue ?? Pandorama 9/1 won Lexus A trial for the Gold Cup - only 5 chase runs but all high class and a win over Weapons Amnesty who looked a good thing for this years Gold Cup if he had run. Pandorama RUNNING EVEN THOUGH GROUND IS GOOD - They must think he is worth a chance to run him. Midnight Chase 12/1 - Handicapper with lots of form over Cheltenham. 11 Chase Runs Each over 2/1 a place (due to 1/4 odds) worth a punt in my book So Choices Imperial Commander 4/1 - Good chance of winning this Pandorama 14/1 - because they are running him at risk (ground) they think its worth it Midnight Chase - 14/1 - due to 11 runs - Chelt Form and goes on Good Ground. Willie Mullins states that he would be happy if Kempes Runs into a place - (undercooking him ??) Kempes - 9/1 Long Run - 5/1 Decisions Desicions !!! Right Desicion Made - Imperial Commander 4/1 Win Bet

[kashiwazaki]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 11yos have a terrible record at the Festival as a whole let alone in the Gold Cup so as much as I love Kauto to bits it has to be very unlikely that he is going to recapture his best and win today - be one of the all time great feats at the Festival if he does it. Cant see it though, his last good run was 15 months ago

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Its my No-1 race. Am more than happy today in watching Kauto Star win or Imperial commander, i,ve never been a fan of Sam W Cohen or as i call him...Toffee boy he's abit Ok Ya for me and like above i think Long Run has ? over him, however Nicky has not had much luck this week but could take the biggest prize of the lot. My anti post cash has always been down on What a Friend but i made a massive mistake back in Nov 2010 and jumped in and took 12/1, he was 50/1 last week. Trainer Paul Nicholls said sometimes he can sparkle and show class at home then sometimes he's a total monkey, he's tried today in first time blinkers and if the rain stays away he also gets his ground. Jockey Daryl Jacob is also starting too work him out and as a jockey he's also had really bad luck this week, as we all know luck can change just as quick for the good as for the bad, Daryl could ride a great race with a possiable win or atleast place claims, if he does i think i'll pick up my winnings with a bag over my head having done myself out of good cash. We all know aswell that ruling out the Champ in any race is just plain crazy, he could also ride a massive race on Kempes, AP had 2 winners yesterday and when he starts coming home 1st it can pay just to keep on the right side of him. Tough race, but its Cheltenham, and its the Gold Cup. Best of Luck.

[Dodger]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Watching past videos reminded me how awesome Densman was when he won the Hennessy. His run last year, second to Imperial Commander, wasn't at all bad either. A wind op and the fact that Nichols is quoted today as saying he has never had him looking so good...he must have a top chance. However, my long time love has been Kauto Star yet I was ready to discard him. However having watched numerous previews I was quite surprised how many allegedly top punsters are tipping him or saying he is a big danger. Backing both on BF at around 8.8-9.0 Imperial Commander has had problems since his last run...leaving the young whippersnapper Long Run as the main danger. However I fully expect one of these old boys to put him in his place. I'm also going totally gaga by having a little reverse forecast...just in case!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Denman looks a massive price at around 8/1. Bit disconcerting he's drifting. I heard at a villiage pub Cheltenham Preview that Nicholls thinks Denman is going very well at home. Where as Kauto Star - although a better worker than Denman - is not going as well as he used to. Nicholls keeps on saying "Kauto Star has probably lost some of his speed"; to know that he's probably not going as well at home. Which probably means Kauto is probably nowhere near his best. I hear Ruby is going to drop him out the back, change of tactics which looks ominous. Remember Istabraq's last run? Backed Imperial Commander at the beginning of the season. Then Denman a couple of weeks ago (bog). Denman looks outstanding in the paddock when putting up his best performances. Not so good when disappointing. Will see what the RUK paddock judges think before going in again.

[billvernon]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Got this down to the following horse all have won on Good Ground and apart from Imperial Commander who luckily runs well fresh They have all ran this side of new year and place 1st and 2nd last races. Also have Chelt form and ran in some Gold cup trials. Roll on the Cup !!!:ok Imperial Commander 9/2 Kempes 8/1 e/w What a Friend 25/1 - e/w Tidal Bay 18/1 - e/w

[mileni4uk]

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Kauto Star 2pt win - 10/1 (antepost) Kempes 1pt win - 12/1 (antepost) Kempes 1pt win - 9/1 Neptune Collonges 0.75pt free - 145.0 (backed 175.0 and layed 30.0) Kauto still has one big race in him imo. Especially on good ground and with hold-up tactics today might get his rythm and finish strongly. Kempes is improving and is a lot better on good ground. Unsuited by heavy in the Hennessy and finished sprinting. Big improvemement on the surface today.