Jump to content

Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 60
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics And as hinted at last weekend, a canadian involving European sides. All prices too short were not considered, with the next best rating in the respective league considered, until I had a shortlist for each league of the 9 we rate. From there, using strength of ratings as the main criteria, it was narrowed down to 5 pairs, as per the English canadian. Spain Ath Bilbao 8/11 Ath Madrid 11/8 Italy Roma 8/15 Napoli 21/20 Germany Dortmund 4/7 Leverkusen 10/11 Belgium Anderlecht 8/13 Mechelen 21/20 Turkey Galatasaray 8/11 Bursaspor 10/11 Each league pair permed into 4/6/8/10 folds £5.20 staked A bit of fun so the euro ratings don't go totally to waste.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Treble: 28 York 4/7 2-1 :clap 28 Kidderminster 8/13 2-0 :clap 26 QPR 4/7 sunday :hope £10 staked 7-fold: 28 York 4/7 :clap 28 Kidderminster 8/13 :clap 26 QPR 4/7 25 Notts County 19/20 :@ 23 Reading 7/10 :wall 22 Middlesbrough 8/13 :wall 21 Peterboro 10/11 :clap £10 staked
Oooh, the treble is alive still.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Canadian: PR: Everton 8/15 :wall Man City 11/10 :@ CH: QPR 4/7 :clap Norwich 13/8 :clap L1: Notts County 19/20 :@ MK Dons 13/8 :clap L2: Port Vale 10/11 :@ Crewe 8/5 :@ BS: Kidderminster 8/13 :clap Bath City 8/5 :clap Perm PR/CH/L1/L2/BS pairs into 4/6/8/10 folds £5.20 staked.
QPR oblige, for a 4 fold return of £3.47 (£1.73 loss)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Treble: 28 York 4/7 :clap 28 Kidderminster 8/13 :clap 26 QPR 4/7 :clap £10 staked
At last. :nana :clap :nana :clap :nana Treble returned £39.89. Banks: Trebles: -20.11 7-folds: -40 Canadians: +9.29 As per the rules of seasons gone by, the next treble stake will be £19.95 Until next time.....
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics Midweek: 46 Crawley Town 4/11 (excluded) 36 Nott'm Forest 4/7 32 Luton 8/15 27 Crewe 1/1 24 Brighton 4/6 19 Cheltenham 10/11 17 Port Vale 8/11 15 Sheffield Weds 8/13 Treble: 36 Nott'm Forest 4/7 32 Luton 8/15 27 Crewe 1/1 £19.95 staked. 7-fold: 36 Nott'm Forest 4/7 32 Luton 8/15 27 Crewe 1/1 24 Brighton 4/6 19 Cheltenham 10/11 17 Port Vale 8/11 15 Sheffield Weds 8/13 £10 staked. And I think that there's a canadian to follow, just about.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics Canadian: PR: Liverpool 8/15 Aston Villa 13/10 CH: Nott'm F 4/7 Burnley 8/5 L1: Brighton 4/6 Oldham 7/5 L2: Crewe 1/1 Rotherham 11/5 BS: Luton 8/15 Tamworth 7/4 Perm PR/CH/L1/L2/BS pairs into 4/6/8/10 folds £5.20 staked.Personally I would have preferred AFC Wimbledon (10/11) rather than Tamworth, but the 'away ratings' are actually the strength of the home side, or rather, the lack of strength, so we'll stick with the formula.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Spain Ath Bilbao 8/11 :clap Ath Madrid 11/8 :@ Italy Roma 8/15 :clap Napoli 21/20 :clap Germany Dortmund 4/7 :wall Leverkusen 10/11 :clap Belgium Anderlecht 8/13 :clap Mechelen 21/20 :wall Turkey Galatasaray 8/11 :clap Bursaspor 10/11 :wall Each league pair permed into 4/6/8/10 folds £5.20 staked A bit of fun so the euro ratings don't go totally to waste.
Close but no cigar in our first Euro attempt. We'll try again at the weekend. Anyway, back to tonight's matches.....
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Canadian: PR: Liverpool 8/15 :clap Aston Villa 13/10 :clap CH: Nott'm F 4/7 :clap Burnley 8/5 :clap L1: Brighton 4/6 :clap Oldham 7/5 :wall L2: Crewe 1/1 :clap Rotherham 11/5 :@ BS: Luton 8/15 :clap Tamworth 7/4 :clap Perm PR/CH/L1/L2/BS pairs into 4/6/8/10 folds £5.20 staked.Personally I would have preferred AFC Wimbledon (10/11) rather than Tamworth, but the 'away ratings' are actually the strength of the home side, or rather, the lack of strength, so we'll stick with the formula.
The formula proves itself about Tamworth, as AFC Wimbledon could only draw 2-2. :ok A 4fold landed again, Liverpool tomorrow night could bump it up to a 6fold & 3 x 4folds. :hope
Treble: 36 Nott'm Forest 4/7 1-0 :clap 32 Luton 8/15 1-0 :clap 27 Crewe 1/1 2-1 :clap £19.95 staked. 7-fold: 36 Nott'm Forest 4/7 :clap 32 Luton 8/15 :clap 27 Crewe 1/1 :clap 24 Brighton 4/6 :clap 19 Cheltenham 10/11 :@ 17 Port Vale 8/11 :wall 15 Sheffield Weds 8/13 :wall £10 staked.
Well I sat there sweating with 1 goal leads all the way through the 2nd half of all 3 matches, but back to back trebles landed. :clap :nana :clap :nana :clap Treble returns £96.14 (£76.19 profit) :ok Banks: Trebles: +56.08 7-folds: -50 Canadians: +9.29 (to be recalculated after tomorrow's Liverpool result) Euro Canadians: -5.20 Again following the usual rules, the next treble stake increases to £48.07. This is where we could start to rocket in profit. All in all, a satisfactory night. Until the weekend. :ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics Somebody just pm'd me asking why the stakes increase when I win. The answer is it is something I have always done, as I feel that like most gamblers, wins & losses come in runs. So this way rewards a winning run quicker than a losing run punishes. Example from last 2 bets: My way: Treble Bank was at -50 Won with £10 stake left us at -20.11 Won with the £19.95 stake has left us at +56.08 If we win with the next stake of £48.07, say at same odds as tonight, we'd be about +234., the next stake would increase to £115 (leaving locked in profit of +119) If we lose, we'll drop to +8.01 and stake reverts back to £10. Level stakes way: Treble Bank was at -50 Won with £10 stake left us at -20.11 Winning with only a £10 stake would have been £48.19, of which £38.19 would have been profit, putting us on +18.08 If we win next bet with just £10 stake, say at same odds as tonight, we'd be about +56.27. with the next stake being £10 (leaving locked in profit of +46 If we lose, we'd drop to +8.08 As you can see, the potential gains for 3 in a row are far better my way, but the overall position in the event of the 3rd bet losing is hardly any different either way. Therefore, my way is better for the purpose of chasing bigger profits. The differences both get bigger if the winning run goes on for longer. Hopefully this explanation makes sense for all you newer readers out there. :ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics Not off the top of my head..... but to calculate that you would have to have a cut-off point for the ratings (my preference would be 20 or higher) and then also include those that didn't make either the treble of the 7-fold. And ones that only featured in the Canadians but not shown in the ratings would have to be excluded as some of them certainly don't have a suitable rating (but are used as best in division at an acceptable price) I'll take a peek at it if/when I get time later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Good job there and very promising.Do you know what your P/L was gonna be if you bet your selections only as singles?
OK I have run a couple of checks: This is using only English matches, and using only sides that I showed a rating for in the thread so far - and therefore a limited set of data. Check 1: All sides priced higher than 1/2 & rated 20 or higher: To 10 unit singles: 42 bets, 28 won strike rate 66.67% current +/- would be +65.18 yield:15.52% Check 2: All sides priced higher than 1/2 & rated 25 or higher: To 10 unit singles: 25 bets, 18 won strike rate 72% current +/- would be +57.90 yield:23.16% Now I don't want to dwell on this too much, as obviously there's a lot more stake being risked each week (than in my current bets) at these levels stakes. I guess, as I know from past seasons, that as it does find a lot of winners, some sort of rachet staking could be used to manipulate & build up a small bank, but I do like my trebles. I forgot to add, these stats are based on simply taking bet365 odds, but with singles, it is even easier to shop around for the best price, so these figures are probably undervalued.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics Liverpool scrape it 1-0. :clap Final Canadian returns: 6fold: £12.15 4fold PR CH £2.88 4fold PR BS £2.97 4fold CH BS £3.45 Total: £21.45 (£16.25 profit) Banks: Trebles: +56.08 7-folds: -50 Canadians: +25.54 Euro Canadians: -5.20 Back shortly with all weekend bets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics As mentioned last night, ratings are a bit thin on the ground this weekend: 48 Chesterfield 5/6 28 Rotherham 8/15 28 Crewe 10/11 23 Fleetwood Town 8/13 21 Millwall 4/5 It's one of the moments I'm never keen on, all 3 teams in one division. But the system throws them up sometimes. Treble: 48 Chesterfield 5/6 28 Rotherham 8/15 28 Crewe 10/11 £48.07 staked Land this one & the treble bank gets a really big boost. :hope Obviously there's no 7-fold, not enough teams (next best after Millwall only rated 13). Canadian:*cup games, as always included when teams are playing same division opposition. PR: Bolton* 4/6 Stoke* 2/1 CH: Millwall 4/5 Norwich 6/4 L1: Rochdale 8/5 Exeter 5/2 L2: Chesterfield 5/6 Port Vale 11/8 BS: Fleetwood 8/13 Grimsby 1/1 Perm PR/CH/L1/L2/BS pairs into 4/6/8/10 folds, 20p a line, £5.20 staked. Euro Canadian for this weekend: Same principles as last weekend, short priced teams excluded, created a best pair for each league, then narrowed that down to 5 pairs for the bet, based on strength of rating for the teams shortlisted. SPAIN Mallorca 4/5 Getafe 6/4 ITALY Napoli 4/7 AC Milan 4/5 HOLLAND Heerenveen 1/1 Roda 13/10 FRANCE Bordeaux 4/6 Marseille 6/5 TURKEY Eskisehirspor 8/11 Besiktas 5/6 Perm each pair into 4/6/8/10 folds, 20p a line, £5.20 staked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Check 2: All sides priced higher than 1/2 & rated 25 or higher: To 10 unit singles: 25 bets, 18 won strike rate 72% current +/- would be +57.90 yield:23.16%
OK I said I wouldn't dwell on it, but 1) it gives me another arrow to the bow 2) it gives the anti-accumulator brigade something to follow. 3) it gives me another use for the european calculations (see below) So we'll keep track of the 25+ ratings properly from here on in, and use best odds to try & boost it a bit further. And we might as well add any 25+ from the eurofiles, if the price is right, if we're going to do this properly. So as well as the bets above: 48 Chesterfield 5/6 willhill (bet365 have cut their price since last night) 28 Crewe 20/21 victorchandler 28 Rotherham 6/10 willhill 28 Napoli 8/13 paddypower 26 Lokeren 4/7 bet365 10pts singles to be added to the performance already calculated. Selections: 25 Winners: 18 SR 72% +/-: +57.90 Yield:23.16% Damn this means I have to do midweeks even if there's only a couple of matches now :lol
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

OK I said I wouldn't dwell on it, but 1) it gives me another arrow to the bow 2) it gives the anti-accumulator brigade something to follow. 3) it gives me another use for the european calculations (see below) So we'll keep track of the 25+ ratings properly from here on in, and use best odds to try & boost it a bit further. And we might as well add any 25+ from the eurofiles, if the price is right, if we're going to do this properly. So as well as the bets above: 48 Chesterfield 5/6 willhill (bet365 have cut their price since last night) 28 Crewe 20/21 victorchandler 28 Rotherham 6/10 willhill 28 Napoli 8/13 paddypower 26 Lokeren 4/7 bet365 10pts singles to be added to the performance already calculated. Selections: 25 Winners: 18 SR 72% +/-: +57.90 Yield:23.16% Damn this means I have to do midweeks even if there's only a couple of matches now :lol
Well done.I think it is worth the trouble because accumulators are the bookies favorites way of betting.You have a good strike rate and you can have a great result long term with singles.Plus you can get the best prices from every game separate ;)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics I'm aware of the perils of accumulators, I just like trebles & perms. The canadians are doing well in their current format, for example. I noticed that football data have missed a result from 6th December in Portugal, when Nacional beat Naval 2-1. Seeing as that's where the excel file draws the data from, I have got to double check all the leagues now for any minor errors.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Treble: 48 Chesterfield 5/6 2-2 :wall 28 Rotherham 8/15 4-0 :clap 28 Crewe 10/11 p-p £48.07 staked Canadian:*cup games, as always included when teams are playing same division opposition. PR: Bolton* 4/6 :wall Stoke* 2/1 :clap CH: Millwall 4/5 :clap Norwich 6/4 :wall L1: Rochdale 8/5 p-p Exeter 5/2 :wall L2: Chesterfield 5/6 :wall Port Vale 11/8 :@ BS: Fleetwood 8/13 :clap Grimsby 1/1 :clap
Bad day at the office, even the canadian failed to get a small return, I think for the first time so far, although only one team in that actually lost. Just one of them days. Banks: Trebles: +8.01 7-folds: -50 Canadians: +20.34 As for the Euro canadian, I think that was a bad idea from the off & has been ditched. The teams it's having to use are sometimes the 4th or 5th best rated, due to so many of the big teams in those leagues always been priced below 1/2. The strength of ratings doesn't match up to the value - I think we get away with it with the English leagues simply because we use the lower divisions most. I'll continue to monitor the euro ratings & add any 25+ to the single stats, if they meet the price conditions. Back later with an update on the single stats & the midweek ratings, of which there seems to be rather a glut of high ones.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics Singles tracking:

48 Chesterfield 5/6 willhill (bet365 have cut their price since last night) :wall -10 28 Crewe 20/21 victorchandler p-p 28 Rotherham 6/10 willhill :clap +6 28 Napoli 8/13 paddypower :clap +6.15 26 Lokeren 4/7 bet365 :@ -10 10pts singles to be added to the performance already calculated.
Napoli hasn't finished yet, but hey they're 4-0 in front. :D Selections: 29 Winners: 20 SR 68.97% +/-: +50.05 Yield:17.26%
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics Midweek ratings: 49 Watford 4/6 47 Arsenal 2/5 (excluded) 44 Bournemouth 4/5 43 Wrexham 4/11 (excluded) 43 Man United 1/3 (excluded) 37 Luton 4/9 (excluded) 33 QPR 4/7 28 Notts County 3/4 24 Peterboro 5/4 22 Norwich 1/1 22 Barnsley 10/11 20 Huddersfield 5/6 19 Oldham 1/1 18 Wycombe 5/6 18 Cardiff 11/10 17 Shrewsbury 11/10 15 Liverpool 8/13 Treble: 49 Watford 4/6 44 Bournemouth 4/5 33 QPR 4/7 £10 staked 7-fold: 49 Watford 4/6 44 Bournemouth 4/5 28 Notts County 3/4 24 Peterboro 5/4 22 Norwich 1/1 22 Barnsley 10/11 20 Huddersfield 5/6 £10 staked Canadian: PR: Liverpool 8/13 Man City 10/11 CH: Watford 4/6 Leicester 23/20 L1: Bournemouth 4/5 Brentford 19/10 L2: Wycombe 5/6 Chesterfield 4/6 BS: Rushden 8/11 Fleetwood 7/10 Perm PR/CH/L1/L2/BS pairs into 4/6/8/10 folds, 20p a line, £5.20 staked. Singles Tracking: 49 Watford 8/11 betfred 44 Bournemouth 5/6 victorchandler 33 QPR 8/13 totesport 28 Notts County 5/6 stan james I'll add any Euro singles later, if there are any.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Treble: 49 Watford 4/6 :wall 44 Bournemouth 4/5 :clap 33 QPR 4/7 :clap £10 staked 7-fold: 49 Watford 4/6 :wall 44 Bournemouth 4/5 :clap 28 Notts County 3/4 :wall 24 Peterboro 5/4 :clap 22 Norwich 1/1 :clap 22 Barnsley 10/11 :clap 20 Huddersfield 5/6 :clap £10 staked Canadian: PR: Liverpool 8/13 :clap Man City 10/11 :wall CH: Watford 4/6 :wall Leicester 23/20 :clap L1: Bournemouth 4/5 :clap Brentford 19/10 :@ L2: Wycombe 5/6 :clap Chesterfield 4/6 :wall BS: Rushden 8/11 :clap Fleetwood 7/10 :@ Perm PR/CH/L1/L2/BS pairs into 4/6/8/10 folds, 20p a line, £5.20 staked. Singles Tracking: 49 Watford 8/11 betfred :wall -10 44 Bournemouth 5/6 victorchandler :clap +8.33 33 QPR 8/13 totesport :clap +6.15 28 Notts County 5/6 stan james :wall -10
Yep Watford & Notts County killed the treble / 7-fold. Canadian drew a blank for the 2nd time. Banks: Trebles: -1.99 7-folds: -60 Canadians: +15.14 25+singles: Selections: 33 Winners: 22 SR 66.67% +/-: +44.53 Yield:13.49% Back shortly.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics Weekend Ratings: 40 Bournemouth 5/6 37 Chesterfield 3/4 35 Oldham 4/6 31 Man City 4/9 (excluded) 30 Kidderminster 8/11* 30 Chelsea 8/13 26 Northampton 8/11 25 Bury 5/6 25 Carlisle 8/11 21 Millwall 5/6 21 Leeds 4/6 20 Swansea 11/10 19 Leicester 8/15 17 Tamworth 4/7 16 Stevenage 5/6 16 Ipswich 10/11 16 Tottenham 4/7 15 Wycombe10/11 15 Peterboro 2/1 *bet365 don't seem to have a price up for Kidderminster, but everywhere seems to be going 4/5 or 8/11, so I'll presume it's 8/11. Doesn't really matter to me - as per the very first post, I shop about privately for best odds anyway. Treble: 40 Bournemouth 5/6 37 Chesterfield 3/4 35 Oldham 4/6 £10 staked 7-fold: 40 Bournemouth 5/6 37 Chesterfield 3/4 30 Kidderminster 8/11 26 Northampton 8/11 25 Bury 5/6 21 Millwall 5/6 20 Swansea 11/10 £10 staked Canadian: PR: Chelsea 8/13 Blackburn 19/10 CH: Millwall 5/6 Hull 13/10 L1: Bournemouth 5/6 Brighton 19/20 L2: Chesterfield 3/4 Bradford 17/10 BS: Kidderminster 8/11 Wrexham 10/11 Perm PR/CH/L1/L2/BS pairs into 4/6/8/10 folds, 20p a line, £5.20 staked. Singles Tracking: 40 Bournemouth 17/20 victorchandler 37 Chesterfield 5/6 willhill 35 Oldham 8/11 victorchandler 30 Kidderminster 4/5 victorchandler 30 Chelsea 8/13 victorchandler 26 Northampton 3/4 victorchandler 25 Bury 17/20 victorchandler 25 Carlisle 4/5 victorchandler I'll add the euro singles in a little while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics As you may have noticed, I have not posted up any Euro bets. Seems I didn't have time. As the singles are a tracking only thing, I have reverted this to UK ONLY, which means 1 win & 1 loss have been removed, UK ONLY 25+singles: Selections: 31 Winners: 21 SR 67.74% +/-: +48.38 Yield:15.61% Fingers crossed for all bets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Fleet Football 2011: Back 2 Basics

Treble: 40 Bournemouth 5/6 :wall 37 Chesterfield 3/4 :wall 35 Oldham 4/6 :wall £10 staked 7-fold: 40 Bournemouth 5/6 :wall 37 Chesterfield 3/4 :wall 30 Kidderminster 8/11 :clap 26 Northampton 8/11 :wall 25 Bury 5/6 p-p 21 Millwall 5/6 :clap 20 Swansea 11/10 £10 staked Canadian: PR: Chelsea 8/13 Blackburn 19/10 :@ CH: Millwall 5/6 :clap Hull 13/10 :clap L1: Bournemouth 5/6 :wall Brighton 19/20 :clap L2: Chesterfield 3/4 :wall Bradford 17/10 p-p BS: Kidderminster 8/11 :clap Wrexham 10/11 :clap Perm PR/CH/L1/L2/BS pairs into 4/6/8/10 folds, 20p a line, £5.20 staked. Singles Tracking: 40 Bournemouth 17/20 victorchandler :wall 37 Chesterfield 5/6 willhill :wall 35 Oldham 8/11 victorchandler :wall 30 Kidderminster 4/5 victorchandler :clap 30 Chelsea 8/13 victorchandler 26 Northampton 3/4 victorchandler :wall 25 Bury 17/20 victorchandler p-p 25 Carlisle 4/5 victorchandler :@ I'll add the euro singles in a little while.
Expensive weekend, been alright for the football pools with all those draws. Small return on the canadian, will update the stats later. :sad
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...