christianu Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Hey Recentley ive been trying to find a way of betting on a number of correct scores with a realistic chance of making a nice profit. We all know how hard it is to predict a scoreline with the number of outcomes available and ive found a way to use the odds in your favour. This is thanks to Betfred (Done Bookmakers) who offer treble odds on 1 winner from a lucky 15, im sure there are other bookmakers offering this too. I've been using it myself for about 3 weeks now and have made a tidy profit- im not trying to brag about this or after event; im just stating that i think it is ready and plausible to use. What is great about the treble odds offering is that in most circumstances if you get one correct score right ouf of the four, you will double your money, 2 right and you make a great deal of profit 3 right and your makin a fortune, in the unlikely event of 4 you've made to much to count! Here's an example: One of the most frequent scorelines is 2-1, say a team are odds on favourites- 5/6.. Betfred offers 8/1 for this.. and obviosuly the higher the teams odds the better price you get... ill write a list of examples. Mansfield 2-1 Rushden 8/1 Scunthorpe 2-0 Swansea 8/1 Darlington 2-1 Leyton Orient 17/2 QPR 1-2 Ipswich 9/1 These are taken from this weekends games, the odds given and the price on the scoreline those odds present. If i put these in a lucky 15 at 1 pt per line..for a 15pt stake here are the possibilities. 1 Winner= 25pts (minimum) 2 Winners= 100 pts (minimum) 3 Winners= 1058 pts (minumum) 4 Winners= 11 510 pts And obviously no winners means nothing, but as you can see 1 winner gurantees a nice profit- depending on the odds of the scores you pick the greater this profit will become. I do two Lucky 15's myself which i beleive offers a better chance of profit, if i get 1 out of the 8 (two lines of 4) right im getting my stakes back, two of these eight and im laughing all the way to the pub. I think i will start with two lines in my system to see how it goes on but as i have done i will variate it from week to week. My next post will contain my selections for tonight.. here's hoping:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Getting Better Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's christianu, do Betfred definitely pay treble on football bets? I know some bookies only pay treble the odds on horseracing. Have you been betting on the phone or in one of their shops? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 8, 2004 Author Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Slections for tonight are: Lucky 15 (1) Boston 2-0 Rushden 8/1 Oxford 1-2 Swansea 10/1 Swindon 2-1 Huddersfield 8/1 Lyon 3-1 Sparta Prague 10/1 Lucky 15 (2) Roma 1-2 Real Madrid 9/1 Liverpool 1-0 Olympiakos 5/1 Maccaibi tel-aviv 0-2 Juventus 10/1 Sheffield Wed 2-1 Hull 17/2 All bets 1pt = 30pts Starting bank 100pts Current bank 70 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 8, 2004 Author Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Oh good point Getting Better, i go in the shops myself as its right round the corner- they do offer treble odds on correct lucky 15's as they have done before for me. Im sure they will offer it online if they offer it in the shops, ill have to check. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Getting Better Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's The reason I asked is that I used to do a similar thing with first goalscorer bets in a Corals shop. They paid treble the odds for one correct result until they realised after a few months that they should have only been doing it for horseracing. Hopefully they do it on football bets but it could be that the person in the shop is paying out in error at the moment. On the Betfred website it says they offer 15-100% bonus on lucky 15s for horseracing but doesn't mention football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 8, 2004 Author Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's I'll have to ask in the shop later on, one encouraging thing is that it does say on the website it offers bonuses on horeseracing and it doesnt mention the dogs neither, now they definitely offer them on the dogs, im confident they will with football, that Fred done is always goin on about how the customer benefits from all sorts of his bonuses. Ive done this for a few weeks now and ive had treble odds. Another thing, almost always on mideweek games they provide a section on the coupon with a ready-made correct score Lucky 15 stating they offer treble odds and up to 100% bonuses.. i dont think they put this on the weekend coupon as there isnt enough space. I usually just fill the space and do it on the coupon but a few weeks back it wasnt on and i just filled in a betting slip. If they offer it on coupons they have to accept it online! ill go in and ask later on too. Im glad u asked anyway as i forgot it might be different when betting online. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's I cant comment for other bookmakers but Ladbrokes pay double the odds for one winner. This should count for all football bets except 1X2 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 8, 2004 Author Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Cheers WTFE, that could be an alternative for those not on Betfred, but great news i went in today and they phoned and you can do a correct score lucky 15 with the bonus and treble odds for one winner. I was worried i might have to scrap this but good old Fred sticks to his guns on correct scores and now he can enjoy more money off me! Its again on the midweek coupon in the shops for those with a local Dones, ready made and everything. Well let's see how tonight goes, although i think ill be better placed come the weekend when theres more choice...making excuses already! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's christianu Why do you think bookies offer these bonuses ? a) because they like punters b) because they want to give you money c) because the overound is massive and you have little if no chance of making a profit . Hmmm tough one ;) Be lucky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 8, 2004 Author Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Yep your spot on because it gives them another chance of making money off me, i even said this in my last post...Fred sticks to his guns on correct scores and now he can enjoy more money off me! ..im not oblivious to why they offer these things, and your post was a tad patronising. The reason i harped on about the treble odds was that nobody else offers it and it gives a greater return at Betfred than anywhere else. I know all about the dangers of betting on what a bookie offers you as theres obviously a reason they offer this. But i liked the idea of a correct score lucky 15 and with the offer of treble odds one winner it is much more favourable for me using this system as the chances of profit increase a great deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 8, 2004 Author Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's I may not have been saying this if i got lucky and one of my selections came in, but considering this is a system i should have been more disciplined and waited until the weekend where there is plenty of games to choose carefully and not every available game on the night and I just rushed it. This was a bad mistake, i shouldnt use excuses though so from now on ill just wait til the weekend or a week with a lot of games. I know this system looks suspect as it uses correct scores which are hard to predict but i know this system can work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Getting Better Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Stick with it. The strike rate isn't going to be as high as other systems but if and when you get a couple of results in the returns will be high. I used to enter a competition at work predicting correct scores on 10 games selected by the organiser and would get between 0 and 4 correct each week. Over the season I averaged 1.6 out of 10 correct scores. This would include some higher scoring games which would have higher odds. I don't usually do result accumulators but did one for a change tonight and got all 5 results: Fenerbache, Monaco, Lyon, Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid. Paid 15/1 with Bet 365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 9, 2004 Author Share Posted December 9, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Thanks for your reply Getting better, im sure this system will win me some more money; and well done on your accumulator and maybe next time you can say why you picked those teams so we can all cash in:nana :cow . Cheers for the support and as you said the srike rate wont be much but given the odds but just 1 win returns nicely. Its worked for me these past few weeks and i think this'll be the last time i mention this as now i need to show it on here...By the way the liverpool match was awesome! talk about drama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Getting Better Posted December 9, 2004 Share Posted December 9, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's There wasn't a huge amount of analysis and I put the bet on just before going out so didn't really think to put it on here. I'd seen that Man Utd were playing an under strength team so Fenerbache at home looked good value at 6/4. Real and Bayer had to win their games to qualify. Bayer were at home against Dynamo who don't travel well and Real were away against Roma who had nothing to play for. Same with Monaco at Deportivo and thought Lyon would be too strong for Sparta. Going back to the correct scores, I started recording the frequency of scores for the Premiership (have a couple of weeks updating to do) and the most common results for the first 13 weeks was 1-1 and 1-0. I was surprised to see that 2-2 was as common as 0-0, 2-1 and 0-1 which were the next most frequent results. Admittedly this is only a small sample based on the first 13 weeks of the premiership only but I may extend the analysis to see if this is similar in other divisions over a longer period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 9, 2004 Author Share Posted December 9, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Good info there and you cant be surpsied the most frequent scoreline is 1-0 with all the defensive sides and all the 4-5-1 formations employed. Any other information you have id be glad to know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punter66 Posted December 9, 2004 Share Posted December 9, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Good luck Christianu Not sure if any of this is relevant but in December 2003 the most common score from the 48 games played in the premiership was 1-1, (6 times, 12.5%). 0-0 and 0-1 happened 5 times each and so did the home win score of 3-2 :eek other stats from the Prem December 2003... Homes 45.83% Draws 29.16% Aways 25.00% Under 1.5 goals 25.00% Under 2.5 goals 45.83% Games finishing with 2 or 3 goals 41.66% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 10, 2004 Share Posted December 10, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Aye good luck with this Chris , if I was to have a fun bet then this would be it. In fact I'm gonna cover all my Championship away tips , maybe do them as 1-1 as a saver Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 10, 2004 Author Share Posted December 10, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Cheers guys, it is more of a fun sort of bet but im hoping it can be a more succesful fun bet- more so than doing a long accumulator. And Keem you edited that stan ternant part yet? Personally i was outraged at the flase information:D Good info punter 66, i reckon the premiership may be the easiest league to predict scores and maybe ill add your predicted Hereford 3-1 win.. im sure there'll be long long odds on that:tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted December 10, 2004 Author Share Posted December 10, 2004 Re: CORRECT SCORE LUCKY 15's Right time to sort this baby out! Lucky 15 (1) Crawley 2-0 Burton Albion 15/2 Q.P.R 1-2 Ipswich 10/1 Southampton 0-2 Middelsborough 11/1 Oldham 1-1 Huddersfield 6/1 Lucky 15 (2) Blackpool 0-2 Bristol City 11/1 Norwich 0-1 Bolton 13/2 Stoke 2-1 Coventry 17/2 Milwalll 0-0 Brighton 17/2 Right each line at 0.5pts = 15pts Current bank= 55pts Done a lot of writing tonight, off to town to forget about punting for a few hours! :moon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.