BBOTD - Monday/25/ October

[Monterosso]

4:20 Southwell - Becausewecan - 1pt @ 9/1 (WillHill - BOG) Heavily raced 4 year old from the Mark Johnston yard who is without a win in 2010 but has put in numerous solid efforts and is now 15lbs below his peak handicap mark. He ran poorly last time out but like many Johnston horses he has the ability to bounce back. He's running on the All Weather for the first time since coming 5th in a class 2 handicap off a mark of 95, now off a mark of 80 at his best trip (12f), I can certainly see him getting very competitive if unaffected by a hard long season. He has shaped as if still in good form when placing on 2 of his last 4 starts and he was very well backed last time out, quite significant with a Johnston horse in my opinion. Johnston only sends 2 here today, he's 31 runners without a winner which is quite a staggering amount for a man with such training talents. He does brilliantly when running horses here, his strike rate is 21% from 733 runners and he shows a level stakes profit to SP too, which is quite impressive. Joe Fanning takes the ride and he has a 19% SR here when riding for Johnston and he gets on very well with this horse, having won on him once and placing on another 5 occasions from 8 runs. Becausewecan is most effective when getting the lead and with his draw in stall 6 (of 7) he should be perfectly positioned to attack. There are no out and out pacemakers in the field and he may get an uncontested lead, that's what I'm hoping for anyways. Fanning is a very good jockey from the front and when he won aboard this fellow he made all to win a class 2 handicap over this trip, off a 5lb higher mark. He has only run on the AW on 5 occasions, running well every time. His form reads : 1-2-2-2-5. One of those 2nd placed efforts were on his only visit to this track but it was over 1 mile, a trip he's not as effective over. He'll certainly have a lot more going for him here than he has had in a lot of his races of late and I think he stands a reasonably solid chance of running a big race. 9/1 is madness in my opinion, he's the 9/2 second favourite in my book, just behind Taikoo who is a very interesting proposition here but certainly not one to get involved with at around the 3/1 mark. I'm going to side with the Johnston horse, he's about double the price I think he should be and worth medium stakes, he's tough and consistent on these surfaces and very very well handicapped. I'm expecting a big run.

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October 2.00 Leicester - Shutterbug (7/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Showed some improvement in third run in maiden when stepped up to this trip of 7 furlongs, being by an Indian Ridge mare she should hopefully improve for the testing ground. Price is no great value on the face of it, but if this very shrewd stable have been aiming to get her nicely handicapped and win a nursery then I can see the price shortening markedly. Interesting that Neil Callan is now booked to ride aswell.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October 5.00 Leicester Inca Blue has run in higher grade maidens and gets in here on a reasoanble mark. Should handle the ground and is well drawn. Could run really well at the price. 1 pt Win 8/1 Bet365

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October 3:00 Leicester - Peligrosso - Back On paper he looks unbeatable here. Has s good 10lbs in hand at the weights and dettori has the best strike rate of all British jockeys this season. He tends not to over complicate things which should see the jolly home here 1pt win @ 1/3 Bet365 BOG

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October 5.10 Kempton Belle Boleyn entered my notebook at Brighton a couple months ago when clearly not handling the track but ran on strongly after being detached, flopped next time at yarmouth but bounced back when only going down by head at Lingfield over this trip, quickly up 4lb for that effort and finds herself on same mark as back at Brighton so might not be as harsh as it first looks, much better drawn today than was at lingfield and could easily make her presence felt. 0.5pt e/w Belle Boleyn 12/1 Hills

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October Kemp 2.10 - Josrs Magic - win at 13/2 BOG with Bet365 Been in good nick here at kempton lately and reverts back to 10F today which appears to be his best trip. he definitely likes the all weather as he's one of the few (I reckon !) who's won at all 4 UK all weather tracks. I suppose the slight worry is knowing when the handicapper catches up with him - he's up 5lb since his last win and up into class 4 for the first time in 4 years, which is a worry obviously. Has been churning out good speed figs lately - I've got his last 2 ratings as both better than the best of any other horse in the race Trainer in form - 100% on the Post RTF figures.

[kerznerpunt]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October Galway 2.35 - Brodies Dubrovnik - 1pt win at 12/1 with StanJames Have a few doubts regarding Prima Vista and the ground, while Buck Barrow have to prove he can transfer his bumper form to hurdles. However Brodies Dubrovnik already showed some fair form in Maiden Hurdles and conditions should suit, so a chance is taken for him to bounce back! --- Hope its ok to be involved here as im new ;)

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October also like josrs magic but have gone for 4.10 KEMPTON DINNER DATE 16-1 0.5pt ew(PADDY POWER and universal) Dinner date has not been running well of late,and is not well drawn and those are big negatives but i think the fact it is on such a fantastic mark overrides both this negatives,this C&D winner runs here off a mark of 70,coming in at a very low weight,made even more advantageous by the fact the claimer takes off a handy 7 pounds.. It likes it around here having won 7 out of 30 entries,and placing in many more..I think it can be forgiven its last run over 10f,and one before as it got started very late...The good thing to come out of it,is that it's handicap mark has come right down to that of its last win,it is rarely out of the mix and should go close here if on a going day and getting fast start. :ok

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October SILBURY 2.00 Leicester. 1 point win. Unexposed on this heavy ground, but should start improving now and I think the heavy ground might be the deciding factor here. Trip's fine and I expect a big effort today.

[Evertonboy]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October Leicester 3.30 EXTRATERRESRIAL Currently rated 87 but has previously won of a Mark of 95. Ran well lto at York despite finishing 7th. The trip is not a problem and has performed on soft- heavy ground in the past. His previous runs have been against horses rated 85-100, 90-100 and 92-104 but today the best he will be up against is rated 89. The drop in grade should help him get back to winning ways

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October 15:20 Southwell Bennelong - This horse has changed hands a few times. Has won a maiden auction stakes doing CD this time last year off a mark of 75 then 2nd the next time out off same mark in handicap company. Has not shown much since but is trying 2nd ride for new trainer off a OR of 65 and with Darryl Holland on board with a 41% place rate here 28/1 with paddy power is tempting 0.5EW.

[Irishbookiebankrupter]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October 3.55 Leopardstown; Prince of Fashion; Runs in a big field here today and has a great chance, fantastic irish flat jockey fran berry booked for the ride. This horse is a progressive sort and won well 4 starts ago over 7f at the Curragh, stepped up to the mile at fairyhouse and finished secound, but his last performance didn't do him justice when 7th at dundalk however that was an all weather surface. With four places up for grabs this horse has a great chance of winning and at the very least a place. .05 e/w @ 16/1 Ladbrokes.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October BECAUSEWECAN 4.20 Southwell. 1 point win. Unknown on this surface, but I think it'll be ok. Has the ability to win this and with the trip being ideal I think he'll take all the beating today.

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October Leicester 5:30 The Human League 12-1 Stan James(BOG) 1 point win Channons horse goes really well around here and is a C&D winner as recently as september. Is bound to love the going as it has won on Soft ground in august at goodwood. Looks overpriced to me and think its a major contender in a open race.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October 5:20 Baby Judge @ Southwell - Has been running on the turf since March so may relish the return to the fibresand. 0.5 pt E/W @ 14/1 Paddy Power