Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct

[bowles10]

Newbury & Doncaster on a decent day

[Lars]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct 14:05 Newbury Nice contest this, and the main focus is on the two market leaders, Elzaam and Dux Scholar, who both do have strong claims going into the race. I'm opposing them both (for reasons I will explain later) with Norse Blues. Sylvester Kirk's colt has had two starts to date, both over today's trip of 7f. His first start was a pretty solid first run, showing a lot of greenness, but didn't get the kindest of passages and looked one for the future. Then absolutely turned that form around with an impressive course and distance win at huge odds of 50/1. From a wide draw, he settled nicely and accelerated nicely when asked, although it did take a couple of rather big smacks to get him going, when he did, he flew clear, even though he still looked quite green, and I'm sure there is scope for improvement with this horse. It was a taking performance and one I really like, and think he can go very close at this Group 3 level. Although the form of his maiden win isn't that strong at the moment, the DH 2nd got quite close to a well thought of Godolphin type, and it perhaps needs a couple more of the horses behind Norse Blues to run before it being fully evaluated. Of the main rivals, Elzaam is a well-thought of type but ran very poorly last time, although scoped dirty in the subsequent days from that run and maybe it should be ignored. I'm not sure a step up in trip is really needed, as to me it looked more of a sprinting type. Blinkers being reached for is to probably help it concentrate. It's allegedly very well but with these doubts about the trip, the blinkers being applied and Jarvis' doing most of his winning abroad recently, I'll avoid. Dux Scholar is an interesting one, who on the face of things, looks like a step down to 7f will suit, as he didn't seem to stay the full mile on his last run when being sent for home early. However, I'm opposing, with the main reason being I don't think he has the speed to keep up with them in the early stages of the race of a 7f contest. They didn't go particularly quickly last time and about 4f out, he looked to be struggling. With a quicker pace, he may get a bit far behind or expend too much energy keeping up. I expect a late run, possibly coming too late. Other key rivals include the Hannon/Hughes horse, Big Issue. I think a price of 11/2 currently is laughable. Was shown up 2 weeks ago in a conditions race. And although the form behind Titus Mills may end up to be a good one, he is far too short. Klammer ran a decent enough race behind Frankel, who obviously has franked the form. At the time however, I thought to myself that Klammer would win no more than a listed contest subsequent to that run, I'm gonna stick by that and oppose. Surrey Star is also in with a shout, although I think he looks a bit exposed now, and always seems to run into a decent type or two. Besides, I'm not a fan of the trainer. Well Sharp has a similar profile to my selection, and it is interesting they bring him all the way here, but I think he may need further than this in a race of this quality. The form of that run, which some quite like, I don't really rate as the ones who have won, haven't beaten much. The other horses I haven't mentioned all seem to be slightly out of their depth. I'm willing to take a chance on Norse Blues, especially as his maiden victory was so taking. He'll have to do some improving to make the frame, but he knows how to win here, has definite scope for improvement, the trainer looks to be coming into some form and I'm quite confident of him causing a surprise here. The 16's are too big. EW @ 16/1 StanJames BOG

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct Doncaster 2:55 - Race 3 on the card My pick today has had some bad luck in past races and am sticking with him today in the racing post trophy, he's a massive horse and has a great cruising speed and i would not let today's odds put you off, he's sure to get the trip and alsong as its not to soft he should get his ground aswell. He was 4th last time out but hit lots of traffic and that run was also after a good lay off from 24th July when he won at Ascot. Neil Callen takes his first leg onboard for Michael Jarvis and he could run a mighty race at huge odds of around 20/1 with the Tote - 16/1 with both Hills and the magic sign, e/w bet for me. 2:55 at Doncaster - ''TOOLAIN'' e/w bet. Best of luck in your day :ok

[Lars]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct 14:55 Doncaster The Racing Post Trophy isn't as good as in previous years in my view, and I think Zaidan is overpriced on his early season form, and if getting back to somewhere near that level, he can go close. Was a precocious 2yo, starting off his season well by winning a 5f maiden very nicely, quickening handily and powering home. Was then pitched in listed company at Ascot, and although a listed race in name, it's more like a Group race for competitiveness. Ran very very well, not getting the best of starts but showing an excellent turn of foot over 7f, and went into many notebooks that day. Trainer, whose opinion I rate very highly, had him down as a Kentucky Derby contender and that's a positive thing to say about a horse that, at the time, was so young. Was expected to follow up at Newbury in another listed contest, but ran so bad to be true, and turned out he had a problem or two during the race. I'm putting a line through that run. If he's over them problems, he should run a decent race. I really like Casamento, but when I heard he was going to go off favourite after being supplemented, I knew I wouldn't be backing. He's been very impressive from the word go, but at 3/1, in a race with as much depth? He can be taken on. The O'Brien pair aren't the greatest horses that O'Brien has brought here in the past. Seville will probably need further and may not quite be quick enough, and Master of Hounds has to reverse the form with Dunboyne Express. Who himself has similar prospects to Casamento in my view, and at the prices, is probably not quite worth it. It's a race full of dangers, and I could write forever about the prospects of Native Khan and Titus Mills etc... But Zaidan is worth a chance, interesting they still bring him here after his Newbury failure, and on his past form has decent claims. Trainer thinks highly of him, and in a close race, he can run a big race at massive price. EW @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct 3.10 NEWBURY VICTORIA SPOUNGE 25/1 E/W CORALS I think this horse can get a slice of the action today and go close at a massive price. This horse is best at this trip and runs at it for the first time this year after being raced over higher in top races and has real chance of bouncing back to form off a mark of just 80 in this today.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct 1.55 DONCASTER~Two E/W against the field for me both 33's with Lad ARGANIL who if a decent performer on the AW he blew his chance at the start lto much better than that and stronger jock booked today . JUDGE AND JURY who has won this in the past and has chances if in the mood but seems to have two ways of running hopefully its a good one today.

[chris34]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct 1.55 Doncaster Cheveton is in the form of his life at the moment having landed the Ayr Bronze Cup and then defied new mark in good enough style in a competitive handicap at Haydock, further 5lb rise in the weights and he still looks well handicapped having won on the fibresand off a 1lb lower mark in the past and useful apprentice continues the ride taking the handy 5lb off. He looks drawn well in stall 20 and more than double the price of Harry Patch who is certainly open to more but his draw in stall 3 puts me off at half the price! 0.5p e/w Cheveton 11/1 bet365

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct In the lucky last at Kempton C'MON YOU IRONS is worth a play at 33's e/w with PP. CD claimer winner here has a chance off this mark and can bounce back from poor turf run lto.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct 2:25 Doncaster: Seville 2pts win 7/1 Ladbrokes Before the jockey bookings were announced Seville was shorter than Master of the Hounds on the exchanges, and last week Seville was trading shorter than Roderic O'Connor before missing Newmarket for this race. That would seem to imply that Seville is no 'second string'. His form looks pretty solid and with only two runs to his name he could step up again here, especially if there is more rain and for the extra furlong. 1:55 Doncaster: Harry Patch 2pts win 5/1 Bet365 Harry Patch looks just about backable at 5/1 in this huge field. The form of his last two races have worked out well. On Friday Mac's Power, the horse Harry's Patch beat at Yarmouth, ran out a comfortable winner at Doncaster after previously going in at Kempton. And Harry Patch's second to Poet's Place with Damika in third, looks good too with that winner following up off a ten pound higher mark next time. Harry's Patch had a set back so missed the Portland and he is dropping back to five furlongs here, but can't help but think there could be plenty more to come, whereas quite a few of his rivals are well exposed.

[zoolander]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct

In the lucky last at Kempton C'MON YOU IRONS is worth a play at 33's e/w with PP. CD claimer winner here has a chance off this mark and can bounce back from poor turf run lto.

I agree, course and distance winner off a lower mark in August, price looks silly.

[Striker]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct 7.45 Kempton-Piano Looks a strong favourite after the way she won at Lingfield

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct

I agree' date=' course and distance winner off a lower mark in August, price looks silly.[/quote'] Yeah it is a silly price and SJ price is still holding it at present, you can layoff on BF in the 20's for free bet at the mo.

[chris34]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct 7.45 Kempton Piano is lightly raced and certainly open to a lot more yet but he only won by a neck although he did appear another furlong would have only meant he would have scored by several lengths and does get the extra furlong tonght but also gets a 7lb rise from a low draw and also the form is hard to work out with the second horse running as if a miss next time out on friday which is also a concern to the strength of the form and looks a risky proposition at a short price. Stoute runs Magicians Cape and would hold a solid chance if he was fully wound up for his seasonal reappearance, yard had been struggling for winners but picked a couple up past couple of days and can ready them first time out and he won his maiden first time out and an opening mark of 85 looks fair enough. 0.25pt e/w Magicians Cape 16/1 vc 8.15 Kempton Global Village is an out and out all weather horse and could easily make it 4 from 4 over CD, he is effectively 9lb higher tonight with Carson losing his 3lb claim in the summer and a 6lb rise in the weights but can win from the front or from the rear and Carson is a good judge of pace and could make it pay. He won in good style when last seen in April over Wolves 7f beating at the time in form Copperwood which looked solid form and could still be open to plenty more improvement. 1pt win Global Village 10/3 sj 8.45 Kempton Primaeval threaten to be something special at the start of the season but disappointed, has bounced back recently but handicapper quickly puts him up 4lb for close second last time out and has been found out of this mark so looks opposable at the price for me. Fantasy Gladiator looks a horse knocking on doors if you look into his form line, but I think otherwise he looks hard to win with with his atiitude coming into question once or twice and dont think he needs 7f. Red Gulch strikes me as the over priced runner in the field and his price is all over the place anything from 6/1 to 14/1! Has shaped much better on AW in the best but and scored nicely over 7f at Newbury a month ago up 8lb for that effort and could still be open to more improvement yet with that form bringing 3 next time out winners so looks fairly stamped and has shown handles AW having won his maiden at Wolverhampton! 0.5pt e/w Red Gulch 14/1 bet365 9.15 Kempton Lord of the reins was a horse that won a couple of times for me over course last winter campaign and has a fantastic record on the AW winning 9, and placed 8 times from 30 starts on the AW. Little out of shape throughout a summer campaign but was an eye catcher last time out when staying on late, dropped another 1lb for that run and now finds himself 6lb below last winning mark and looks dangerous at the moment. 0.5pt e/w Lord of the reins 15/2 hills

[Striker]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct

7.45 Kempton-Piano Looks a strong favourite after the way she won at Lingfield

Won,11-8:ok