LOTD - 14th of October

[Monterosso]

2:20 Wincanton - Northern Lad - 1pt Lay Easy winner last time out, that was his first win in 16 attempts, he did it nicely when winning by 6 lengths but it was a very weak race and he's now stepped up to a trip that I'm not sure he'll stay. That race was over 2m 3f and he now has to run over 2m 6f, he just about stays 2 and a half miles and he ran twice over 2m 5f and was beaten by 89 and 41 lengths. The ground is also against him, he won on Good to Soft last time out and today it's likely to be bordering on Good to Firm, ground he has only experienced once when AP was also in the saddle over 2m 1f at Market Rasen, he was beaten by 16 lengths that day and didn't seem to enjoy the ground at all. That was also off a mark of 1lb lower than he is today. Although he does get to race off the same mark as when winning last time I think he certainly shouldn't be an odd-on shot, he has to contend with top weight too, Jim Best trains him and although he and McCoy strike up an impressive partnership they are prone to very short priced losers, I think this fellow fits the bill as another potential loser and even if he does win he's at a price worth taking on. He doesn't strike as the best of jumpers and holds his head very awkwardly, he was suited by the slower ground and quickly set tempo last time out and with no real pace in this race he could struggle to pass the field as easily as he did when winning. Himitas is the one I fancy, he ran well for a long time last time out and is now dropped 2f from the 3m trip he contested, if he runs to ability he could have a good chance and he has a decent 7lb claimer on board too. He should appreciate the ground and runs well when going right handed, which he returns to here. He's 7.2 at the moment and certainly has a better chance than the odds suggest. Heir To Be looks well handicapped if running to his previous form, now 5 and 12lbs lower than his last 2 wins, which where last year. He's back to his favoured 2m 6f trip and if his jumping clicks he may prove a lot better than his 23.0 price tag. A few others have decent claims too, Rash Judgement may be 11 years old now but has been very consistent of late. He looks well in on old form and despite a penalty from his win on his penultimate start a mark of 88 may not be beyond him, even in his twilight years. The trip is perfect and a return to quicker ground will also help, he's too big at 11.5 and may well enjoy the spin over hurdles for a change, he has been racing over the bigger obstacles for a while now but has the ability to do well here if on a going day. I'm taking a chance by laying Northern Lad as he does have a lot going for him based on his win last time out but he's opposable at the prices, I'd want 2/1 before I'd go near him and he's worth a small lay for decent returns if he's beaten and a smallish loss if he wins. There's no value at 1.87 and if it wasn't McCoy on board he'd be at least double that, possibly more. Ground, trip and how the race will be run are all a concern for me and hopefully he'll prove me right.

[BillyHills]

Re: LOTD - 14th of October 450 Win: Revelator Paul Nicholls debutant in a juvenile hurdle, only ran twice and both at 6f so a major doubt about his stamina, may get away with with such a small field but at the prices is a lay for sure. Two opponents are capable of upsetting the fav here, Until The Man and Royal Ettiquette have both had a run over hurdles and didnt do too badly.