Barebear Posted October 18, 2004 Author Share Posted October 18, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Thanks for the tips WFTE. I like the idea that you can't really proof the system after a set period of time. The volume of bets is a better indicator. This is all the more apparent this week as I am on holiday and might not get to the PC or even check out the papers every day. So I will try my best this coming week. I agree that discounting lays over 3.0 is not on, especially as I tend to pick 4 or 5 every day. That would leave me with precious few to go on. Also the structure of the system is such that the price is not significant anyway, as long as it loses. So choosing the right nag is the most important aspect. So, moving into my second week, my cash flow is as follows so far: System 1 - Stop at a loser. Figures as Follows - Price, Liability, (horse Win/Lose), Points Total. Lay 1 - 2.75, 1.75, (W), -1.75 Lay 2 - 2.875, 5.16, (L), +1 Lay 3 - 3.8, 2.8, (L), +2 Lay 4 - 3.95, 2.95, (W), -0.95 Lay 5 - 5.7, 18.57, (L), +3 Lay 6 - 2.66, 1.66, (L), +4 Lay 7 - 2.96, 1.96, (L), +5 Lay 8 - 1.6, 0.6, (W), +4.4 Lay 9 - 3.0, 3.2, (L), +6 There are too many figures to churn out with that second system. If you really want to see my table in Excel (no formulae) I will be happy to mail it to you. Just ask. All in all, my first week was a resounding success. I hope this is a sign of things to come. System 1 - +6 pts System 2 - +17 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 25, 2004 Author Share Posted October 25, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Glad that's over - I must be some kind of workaholic as I am dying to get back to work :b Anyway, I'll be picking some more for my system tommorow and I've alreday got some earmarked at Ling and Wolvs. There are a few maidens on the cards tommorow - Perfect for us Layers. Hope the FAV's are short and we can steal some stake money on false Fav's. :D Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 25, 2004 Author Share Posted October 25, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 25 Oct 04 1.40 Ling - Kandidate 2.10 Ling - Waatheb 2.20 Wolv - Paparaazi 3.20 Wolv - Vittorioso 5.20 Wolv - Dancing Tilly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 26, 2004 Author Share Posted October 26, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 25 Oct 04 - Results 1.40 Ling - Kandidate - L (1.6) (no more Lays today) 2.10 Ling - Waatheb - L (6.0) 2.20 Wolv - Paparaazi - L (5.5) 3.20 Wolv - Vittorioso - NR 5.20 Wolv - Dancing Tilly - L (3.5) System 1 = +7pts System 2 = +21pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 26, 2004 Author Share Posted October 26, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 26 Oct 04 2.00 Chelt - Football Crazy 2.00 Lim - Tibet 4.30 Lim - Megec Blis 4.55 Chelt - Chockdee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 26, 2004 Author Share Posted October 26, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 26 Oct 04 Results 2.00 Chelt - Football Crazy - W (1.6) 2.00 Lim - Tibet - L (3.75)(no more lays today) 4.30 Lim - Megec Blis - L (1.8) 4.55 Chelt - Chockdee - W (3.5) System 1 = +8pts System 2 = +20.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 26, 2004 Share Posted October 26, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Well done mate :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 27, 2004 Author Share Posted October 27, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Thanks MrJT..... Doing my best. Lays 27 Oct 04 1.40 Yarm - Muraabet (2.2) 2.15 Yarm - Plea Bargain (3.2) 3.35 Sedge - Simlet (4.7) 5.20 Sedge - Blue Buster (3.3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 27, 2004 Share Posted October 27, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! and another winning day :clap are you running this for real how is the profit going if you are? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 27, 2004 Author Share Posted October 27, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 27 Oct 04 - Results 1.40 Yarm - Muraabet (2.2) - L (no more lays today) 2.15 Yarm - Plea Bargain (3.2) - W 3.35 Sedge - Simlet (4.7) - L 5.20 Sedge - Blue Buster (3.3) - W System 1 = +9pts System 2 = +20.7 pts and another winning day :clap are you running this for real how is the profit going if you are? Well, I think I'll keep testing for a good wee while yet, I'm still not too confident that it will last. I hope that I'm not carrying begginers luck lol. Still I think that it is going well and I sure am mighty pleased :nana . I think that it will take a hit shortly. I mean I had a day in the first week where I had 3 out of 4 of the lays won their races and the bank survived. It is much stronger now and could easily take a hit like that again and still come out rosy on the next winning lay. But if that is as bad as it gets then bring on the good times. The system 2 bank will go up to a whopping 26 pts on my first winning lay tommorrow. That's a fantastic return in less than 2 weeks of the system actually working (I was away for a week on Hols). System 1 is showing a good profit for the short time aswell!!! :D However, Let's see what tommorrow brings. Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddsfellow Posted October 27, 2004 Share Posted October 27, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Good luck with this Alex. It is often said how punters are at an advantage when laying on Betfair because they don't have to lay every horse unlike bookmakers. However by the same token no bookie would take bets on only one horse in a race because the liability is to large. Therefore personally i believe it is best to lay several horses in the same race. The up side of this is that liability and risk is greatly reduced but the downside is that profits can be less. the procedure of laying two or more horses in a race is called coupling and i think there is a passage in "the art of legging" which details its concepts far better than i can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 28, 2004 Author Share Posted October 28, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Thanks Oddsfellow, good to see there are people interested in my systems. Keep watching this space. Lays 28 Oct 04 2.20 Ling - Celtique (2.92) 2.10 Taun - Quid Pro Quo (2.5) 2.50 Ling - Daniel Thomas (1.56) 4.00 Strat - Darjeeling (4.1) 5.00 Strat - No Guarentees (2.64) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 28, 2004 Author Share Posted October 28, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 28 Oct 04 - Results 2.20 Ling - Celtique (2.92) - L (no more lays today) 2.10 Taun - Quid Pro Quo (2.5) - W (should have been 3.10) 2.50 Ling - Daniel Thomas (1.56) - W 4.00 Strat - Darjeeling (4.1) - W 5.00 Strat - No Guarentees (2.64) - L A bit of a sweat today. My Liability going into the 5.00 wolud have been 13.78 points. Still, the last one saw me alright. :dude I've just gotta trust my picks when it gets like that. System 1 = +10 pts System 2 = +27 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 28, 2004 Share Posted October 28, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! I think that it will take a hit shortly. I mean I had a day in the first week where I had 3 out of 4 of the lays won their races and the bank survived. It is much stronger now and could easily take a hit like that again and still come out rosy on the next winning lay. But if that is as bad as it gets then bring on the good times. The system 2 bank will go up to a whopping 26 pts on my first winning lay tommorrow. That's a fantastic return in less than 2 weeks of the system actually working (I was away for a week on Hols). System 1 is showing a good profit for the short time aswell!!! I have been laying proper for the last few months and have been slowly tweaking the staking strategy. The keep going till hit a loser (in your case) is incredibly dangerous and relys on you having a loser as soon as possible. When i first started laying i use to work to 5% of my bank which i used to lose so, say if then horse was evens i would lay 5pts if the horse was 2/1 it would be 2.5pts etc. I never ever laid over 2/1 although have since started to modify the odds rule. I now think having level stake of 5pts no matter what price is the way to go for my laying. Not sure i level stakes would work for you but, i am slightly concerned with laying and increasing your liability until you hit winner. Well done on your record so far which i think if i can count properly is:- 48 Lays 27 Losers (i.e horse did not win) 21 Winners (horse did win so you lose) now im not sure if laying at level stakes would actualy have showed a profit if it did it would probably be minimal as a few winners have been big prices I hope this helps a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 31, 2004 Author Share Posted October 31, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays Mon 1 Nov 04 1.10 Plum - Princess Aimee 2.00 Redc - Richie Boy 3.20 Warw - Toomebridge 3.30 Redc - Safirah 4.10 Plum - Yes Sir Mrjt, What is your worst straight run of losing lays? Do you keep a spreadsheet or are you happy with a running total? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 31, 2004 Share Posted October 31, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Its happening at the moment mate 7 winners(i.e i lose) out of the last 9 lays :sad I did start with a spreadsheet but betfair does it for you so i extract that as and when :ok Keep up the good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 1, 2004 Author Share Posted November 1, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays Mon 1 Nov 04 - Results 1.10 Plum - Princess Aimee - L (4.33) (no more Lays Today) 2.00 Redc - Richie Boy - W (1.57) 3.20 Warw - Toomebridge - L (1.9) 3.30 Redc - Safirah - W (2.9) 4.10 Plum - Yes Sir - L (3.75) System 1 = +11pts System 2 = +30pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 2, 2004 Author Share Posted November 2, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 2 Nov 04 1.00 Catt - Consider This (1.7) 1.30 Catt - Primarily (3.05) 1.50 Exe - Escompteur (1.95) 2.10 Folk - Countess Point (2.92) 2.30 Catt - Maid to Measure (3.65) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 2, 2004 Author Share Posted November 2, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 2 Nov 04 - Results 1.00 Catt - Consider This (1.7) - L (no more lays today) 1.30 Catt - Primarily (3.05) - L 1.50 Exe - Escompteur (1.95) - L 2.10 Folk - Countess Point (2.92) - L 2.30 Catt - Maid to Measure (3.65) - L That would be one of those good days that some folk have talked about then eh? :clap :nana :loon :cow :D :rollin :lol :ok :) :cheers :drums :tongue2 System 1 = +12 pts System 2 = +35 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! well done matey :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 2, 2004 Author Share Posted November 2, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Cheers Bud Hope You are enjoying this masterclass in laying and strategy?;) Much more to come, I'm learning new things every day. Spotting more and more about false FAV's. Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted November 3, 2004 Share Posted November 3, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 3, 2004 Author Share Posted November 3, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 3 Nov 04 1.20 Kemp - Golano 1.30 Muss - Piccolomini 1.50 Kemp - Island Stream 2.00 Muss - Love Beauty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 3, 2004 Author Share Posted November 3, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 3 Nov 04 - Results 1.20 Kemp - Golano - L (3.5) (no more lays today) 1.30 Muss - Piccolomini - L (13.0) ( wow, had no idea that the price would have gone that far out. I'd have no doubt that I'd never lay this one, so discount it!) 1.50 Kemp - Island Stream - L (3.75) 2.00 Muss - Love Beauty - L (3.0) Ah yes, another good one! When are these runs of bad luck going to happen? (Yes you don't have to say that the bad luck will appear as soon as hard cash is involved!) System 1 = +13 pts System 2 = +38 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 4, 2004 Author Share Posted November 4, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays - 4 Nov 04 1.05 Hayd - Tell The Trees 1.25 Nott - Hidden Jewel 2.15 Thur - Royal Alphabet 3.45 Hayd - Va Vavoom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 4, 2004 Author Share Posted November 4, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays - 4 Nov 04 - Results 1.05 Hayd - Tell The Trees - L (5.0) (no more Lays today) 1.25 Nott - Hidden Jewel - L (2.25) 2.15 Thur - Royal Alphabet - W (2.5) 3.45 Hayd - Va Vavoom - L (3.0) System 1 = +14 pts System 2 = +41 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 6, 2004 Author Share Posted November 6, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 6 Nov 04 1.05 Down R - Augherskea 1.10 Ayr - Iron Man 2.35 Down R - Beef Or Salmon 5.25 Wolv - Soul Dance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted November 6, 2004 Author Share Posted November 6, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 6 Nov 04 - Results 1.05 Down R - Augherskea - W (1.53) 1.10 Ayr - Iron Man - W (1.3) 2.35 Down R - Beef Or Salmon - W (2.0) 5.25 Wolv - Soul Dance - NR Liability on the next lay will be [3.98 x (odds-1)] pts. Therefore: System 1 = +10.02 pts System 2 = +37.02pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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