Barebear Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Hi First Post :clap I have been toying with racing and football systems for ages but have never had the time or discipline to follow any through. None of the things I tried were any good anyway! But now I reckon I might have one to track. I have done so for a couple of weeks and it seems to be alright. I'm sure someone has already tried it and I'm sure most have considered it - so if you would post your comments, I'd be very grateful. Here it is: Using Laying strategies and rules, ie. educated lay selections, pick 5 per day and stop at a loser! That's it! Seems to be returning a 1pt profit every single day so far. Thanks for your time. Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 11, 2004 Author Share Posted October 11, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Might as well start proofing these selections: 1.50 Wind - Nota Bene 2.40 Leic - Hashimiya 3.10 Leic - Woodland Glade 5.10 Leic - Saywaan 5.20 Wind - Sleeping Indian Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! just a few thoughts. Are these picked by form? aas they all seem to be maidens?. Also you say stop at loser? what happens if the first horse you lay loses? or did you mean stop at winner :) jt :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Hi They are not from form as I don't know enough about form to pick decent lays. I just read that Maiden races are quite uncertain to predict.If the first horse loses, I don't lay any more, I've made my daily target of 1pt. If the first horse wins, I bump up the liability so that I stand to make an overall profit of 1pt if the next horse I lay loses.I will stop if I get 5 of my lays winning in any one day. (may be changed to 4) So effectivley I am stopping when I am 1pt up. Understand? Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Decent first selection. 1.50 Wind - Nota Bene - Won @ 2.75 2.40 Leic - Hashimiya - Lost @ 2.875 (no more Lays today) 3.10 Leic - Woodland Glade - Lost 5.10 Leic - Saywaan - Won 5.20 Wind - Sleeping Indian - Won +1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 12, 2004 Share Posted October 12, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Good luck Alex, It was a p!ss poor day for us layers ;) all those short price maidens and unproven horses came in. Tomorrow will be better :ok good luck mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! 2.10 Font - Son of Greek Myth 2.30 Ayr - Alrafidain 3.20 Leic - Seeking an Alibi 3.30 Ayr - Ouninpohja 3.50 Leic - Cave of the great Here's hoping!!! Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 12, 2004 Share Posted October 12, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Good Luck Alex :ok Just a few pointers, 3.20 Leic and 3.50 Leic are very big prices and you will find imho that its best to keep all lays under 2/1 as it keeps you liability down. As an example the 3.20 Leic Price at the time of post is...5.6 even laying at £10 your profit would be £10 but your potential loss would £46 :eek Its up to you obviously just be careful laying big prices :) Good luck for today i'll be opposing you in the 2.10 Font as im laying Nantucket Sound. McCoy has chosen to ride Son of Greek Myth instead of Pipes runner and that says volumes to me.... Good luck Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Thanks for the help Mrjt, As I said before I am playing mostly blind and relying on bitty guidance to select my lays. Would it be possible for you or anyone else to give me some more guidance on the selection methods. If you could direct me to a good sound guide, I'd feel a lot more comfortable when picking these 5 horses each day. I'm sure I will become more familiar with the Jockeys and things like draws and other factors as we progress, but I admit I do need a tutor in these early stages. :D Thanks All the best today. Alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 12, 2004 Share Posted October 12, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Not a problem Alex, I will post my pointers and rules etc that i try and look out for a bit later in between races :) I'll be keeping an eye on your lays Alex and hoping they lose ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Thank you You are a good man, despite what folk say!! ;) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 12, 2004 Share Posted October 12, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! :lol ya cnut ;) Right here it goes.... Firstly what you are looking for in a horse is good, Maidens are a great laying opportunity as often they are all first time out and often the prices are based on breeding or whispers rather than talent:ok Try to also look for maiden hurdles, beginner and novice chases are very good also. Have a look at the going at the racecourses then got to Sporting Life and go to racecards, pick the meeting and the race then the horse. Go through the short price favourites form. Try and look for where horses have only eve won on Firm ground but its now Soft. That sort of thing. Come back if you have q's about that Rules Never ever lay over 2/1 Never lay Dettori (This is a new rule in force form yesterdays treble which cost me big) Try and stick to level liability like you also go for 10pt loss per race and use the odds to tweak that so if its 2/1 then lay 5pts if its evens then lay 10pts etc...... Try that come back if you want more help or if the above makes no sense whatsoever (possible as im tired) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 13, 2004 Author Share Posted October 13, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! That's good advice to be getting on with. I'll print it off and put it on the workshop wall for reference. Though going by the results I might no need any help, eh?? :rollin Results 12 Oct: 2.10 Font - Son of Greek Myth - L (no more lays today) 2.30 Ayr - Alrafidain - L 3.20 Leic - Seeking an Alibi - L 3.30 Ayr - Ouninpohja - W 3.50 Leic - Cave of the great - L Profit = +2pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 13, 2004 Share Posted October 13, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! :clap good day mate. The problem with laying blindly is you will hit a bad run, so if you have a reason as to why you are laying you wont hit such a bad run anyway good luck mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 13, 2004 Author Share Posted October 13, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! 13 OCT 04 1.15 Ling Happy as Larry 2.15 Ling Mel's Moment 2.50 Ling Concer Eto 4.25 Uttx Roosters Reunion 4.45 Weth Ammonias Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 13, 2004 Share Posted October 13, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Hi Alex Im slightly confused as to how on 11th Oct you started with Nota Bene at 2.75 which was a winner:( ... So for example if you laid @ £10 your loss was £17.50 You then laid Hashimya at 2.87..... Again laid £10 at 2.87 potential loss £18.70 profit £10 however you say that you made a 1pt profit?... When in the above example you are down £8.70? Do you bouble stakes till you hit winner if so great idea :ok Just wondering how with 1 winner and 1 loser your in profit.. Good luck for the day :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 13, 2004 Author Share Posted October 13, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! OK I am trying to explain this to other people too! So I lay Nota Bene at a price of 2.75. Backers stake = £10 My Liability = £17.50 Bugger Wins!!! Next Lay - I want to get back my £17.50 plus £10 profit. Lay Hashimya @ 2.87 Backers Stake = £27.50 My Liability = (£27.50 x 1.87) = £51.43 Hashimya Lost - Ya Beauty - £10 up!! I cant play these high stakes yet - so I'll play with points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 13, 2004 Share Posted October 13, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! ah ha i get ya :ok thats the best way of doing it :ok the only slight prob is if you hit a run of winners like me on monday 5 :eek anyway good luck to you..hope you don't mind me butting my nose into your laying ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 13, 2004 Author Share Posted October 13, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! No Problems with you adding to my selection posts. I might modify the strategy in the near future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 13, 2004 Author Share Posted October 13, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! I am considering a system similar to the one I adopted, but I’d carry on laying the rest of my selections. It would work like this: 1.        Pick your lays for the day 2.        Lay the first one in order to make a 1 pt profit. 3.        If it loses, bank your 1pt. 4.        If it wins Kick in the scenario above where you up your liability to get your loss back plus a 1pt profit. 5.        Keep upping your liability until you get all your losses back plus a 1pt profit. This would cancel out any losses and effectively give you a 1pt profit every time you successfully lay a horse. Am I correct or do I need :spank ? :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 13, 2004 Author Share Posted October 13, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Results 13 OCT 04 1.15 Ling Happy as Larry - W 2.15 Ling Mel's Moment - L (no more Lays today) 2.50 Ling Concer Eto - L 4.25 Uttx Roosters Reunion - L 4.45 Weth Ammonias - W +3pts ----If I had followed my recently updated system, I'd be Sitting at 9pts up and waiting on my first tomorrow to repenish my bank and put me 10pts up. as Ammonias was 1.5, I'd be looking for a backers stake of 1.5 to set me right. I am though not looking to lose any more that 4 or 5 in a row or my liability would be sky high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 14, 2004 Author Share Posted October 14, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! 14 Oct Lays 1.30 Taun - Moon Catcher 2.05 Taun - Alrafid 2.25 Worc - Lord Gale 5.15 Worc - Red Georgie :unsure Only 4 today and I'm glad I'm still only testing because I'm not filled with confidence today. Newmarket is a bit rich with long priced FAV's so I'll back off from there today. Still trialing both systems. And i've got Betfair prices from each day for all my selections taken around lunchtime on my spreadsheet. I will build up a much more detailed financial flow later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 14, 2004 Share Posted October 14, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! 1. Pick your lays for the day 2. Lay the first one in order to make a 1 pt profit. 3. If it loses, bank your 1pt. 4. If it wins Kick in the scenario above where you up your liability to get your loss back plus a 1pt profit. 5. Keep upping your liability until you get all your losses back plus a 1pt profit. All of those are fine except no 5.....With laying unless you are very lucky you will hit a run of winners...Trying to get back the money until you win again is a very dangerous way of gambling....if you have a big bank?..then it would work but your bank could fluctuate. A better and safer way of laying..the way i do it is have a bank. Then from that bank you use 5% of it as your liability...Now that may sound very boring but it protects your bank from a long run of winners. I always lay to 5% of the bank if the bank goes up your liability gets bigger if you have a run of losers then you reduce the liablity to 5% of the bank again.. There will be days where you have 4 winners (:sad ive had this and it sucks..every race you think this one will lose and it wins by a short head :sad ) other days all your lays will lose :D Hope this helps a bit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 15, 2004 Author Share Posted October 15, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! My God what a poor day!!!!! Results 14 Oct 04: 1.30 Taun - Moon Catcher - L (no more Lays today) 2.05 Taun - Alrafid - W 2.25 Worc - Lord Gale - W 5.15 Worc - Red Georgie - W +4pts :clap Changed system - aaaaaarrrrrrgggggghhhhhhh!!!!!! If I was working with my altered system I'd have 10 pts profit less the liability after 3 losing lays. That loss so far, going into my first lay tomorrow would be 6.37pts. That would mean that the first lay tomorrow would require a backers stake of 7.37pts so potentially my liability could be between 7 and 15 pts. I don't blame anyone if you are confused by this. I almost am myself. ;) But if the new system is to be trusted, I'd win my first tomorrow and be 11pts better off. :| We'll see! Catch you tomorrow, after all, it is another (winning?) day! :b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackfritz Posted October 15, 2004 Share Posted October 15, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Surely laying to recoup your losses and make a set profit is the same as trying to back winners and make a set profit - the Martingale system. A sure way to the poor house. Even with losing lays at 2/1 a run of 5 -6 lays that all actually win mean that the stakes following this system on the next race to get anything back have to be quite huge! e.g lay 2/1 1st race - winner lose 20pts, next race 2/1 - stake 30pts ( to get your 10pts profit) - winner gives liability 60pts etc. 3rd race lose 140 pts, 4th race lose 300 pts, 4th race lose 620 pts, 5th race lose 1260 pts, 6th race - sell house and give proceeds to Betfair! Much better to go with a percentage of bank system, that way you won't be wiped out after 4-5 losers. As long as strike rate is reasonably high, which you seem to have achieved so far, this way you should make some profit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 15, 2004 Author Share Posted October 15, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Cheers for your opinion blackfritz. Need more input from all you guys, do you see anything decent developing here, or am I wasting my time? I am begining to see the benefit of a cautious staking plan. However - I've started so I'll Finish........ with both versions of my system. Do you think 2 months is long enough to proof a system or should it be longer? Lays 15 Oct 04 2.00 Redc - Archeology 2.25 Bri - Oligarch 2.35 Redc - William Tell 3.00 Bri - Chaplin Hope I do better than yesteday! - Certainly can't do much worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 15, 2004 Author Share Posted October 15, 2004 Re: Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Lays 15 Oct 04 - results 2.00 Redc - Archeology - L ( no more lays today) 2.25 Bri - Oligarch - W 2.35 Redc - William Tell - L 3.00 Bri - Chaplin - L +5pts. Reviewed System - +13pts. Better Day all round!:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 16, 2004 Author Share Posted October 16, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Sat 16 Oct Lays 2.15 Kelso - Sobraon 2.50 Kelso - Zoffany 3.35 Catt - Foxy Gwynne 4.50 Srat - Chockdee 5.50 Catt - Fine Lady Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted October 17, 2004 Author Share Posted October 17, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! Sat 16 Oct Lays - Results 2.15 Kelso - Sobraon - W 2.50 Kelso - Zoffany - L (no more lays today) 3.35 Catt - Foxy Gwynne - L 4.50 Srat - Chockdee - L 5.50 Catt - Fine Lady - L Profit = +6pts New system - Profit = + 17pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 17, 2004 Share Posted October 17, 2004 Lay system - opinions wanted!!! When you ask about whether 2 months is long enough to proof a system, I dont think its really time that matters, more the quantity of bets. As you are withdrawing after your first loser(or winner for you, god layings confusing) Id only count the horses you actually play as a bet. A hundred is a good start point for getting a rough idea to how things are going but obviously the more the better. Personally I dont go with the concept of never laying anything above 2/1. Guess its just personal preference though. You certainly do need to set yourself a limit though. My max is about 5/1. Again, its also a matter of value, would you lay a Blackpool donkey @ 8/1 in the National?? Another bet I often look for is laying the place bet. If you get large fields that just miss out on 4th place.ie.14,15 runners, or any large field non-handicaps. You can get some reasonable prices to lay sometimes and only three horses to place. Can come in handy when you think you've got the poss. winner down to 2 or 3 but unsure which to go with, lay something else to place instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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