White Feather

Running total -£4
Bet 3
 

Newbury passed its second inspection for Saturday's Premier racing fixture 

Cannock Park 10/1 WH - 14:17 Kelso - 4 places
Rewired 14/1 WH - 14:50 Kelso - 6 places
2 x singles - each way double.

If I miss any live races that I have bets in, I log into Sporting Life to watch replays. They show the replay 30 minutes after the live race.

If I miss any live races that I have bets in, I log into Sporting Life to watch replays. They show the replay 30 minutes after the live race.

A second 10am inspection is needed at Newbury with the track waterlogged in places.

Good day today +£110 the highlight 
day 61
+£234

Not many runners in this and no extra places so I will stick to trying to find the winner
Horses that failed to complete last time have a record of 0 from 11. This removes 4 horses.
Horses that came 1st last time have 1 win from 21 with a loss of 12 points. This removes 1 more.
The remainder have a record of 7 from 52 with 16 points.
No horse has won after a lay off of more than 70 days ago or less than 8 days ago. This removes 2 more.
Claiming jockeys have a record of 0 from 9.
This finally leaves BILL BAXTER, available at 13/2 with WH.

Age – 8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 3 of the last 10 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 5/10 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 1 of the last 10 winners won on their last run before the Greatwood Gold Cup , 8/10 winners ran within the last 42 days
Previous Course Form – 7/10 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury, 2/10 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newbury
Previous Distance Form – 10/10 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 10/10 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 8/10 winners had at least 8 previous chase runs, 10/10 winners had at least 1 previous chase win, 8/10 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 8/10 winners were rated 135 or higher
Graded Wins – 2/10 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/10 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 5/10 winners had at least 1 win that season

Cannock Park 10/1 WH - 14:17 Kelso - 4 places
Rewired 14/1 WH - 14:50 Kelso - 6 places
2 x singles - each way double.

Saturday 2nd March Lucky 15
 

Cannock Park 10/1 WH - 14:17 Kelso - 4 places
Rewired 14/1 WH - 14:50 Kelso - 6 places
2 x singles - each way double.

Kruger Park  13:50 Newbury - 12/1 bet 365
 
 

Cannock Park 10/1 WH - 14:17 Kelso - 4 places
Rewired 14/1 WH - 14:50 Kelso - 6 places
2 x singles - each way double.

Cannock Park 10/1 WH - 14:17 Kelso - 4 places
Rewired 14/1 WH - 14:50 Kelso - 6 places
2 x singles - each way double.

Newbury 1.20 The first of nine races covered by ITV today is the 3M 2F veterans handicap chase with nine horses going to post. The race has an open look about it and it maybe worth chancing last year’s winner Cyclop from the David Dennis stable. He’s two from three here and although he’s hard to fancy on his last three starts when he’s been well beaten he has dropped 9lb in the weights for that run of bad runs. He’s now 7lb lower than his win last year so is without doubt well handicapped and in the hope the track may spark him back to form is worth a speculative each way bet.   CYCLOP 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5 123   Kelso 1.42 A competitive class 2 handicap hurdle is next run over 2M 4F and 189 yards with nine horses lining up. Many can be given chances with the one that stands out to me being the Nicky Richards trained The Kalooki Kid in his first handicap. A winner of novice hurdles at Musselburgh and Newcastle this season he certainly wasn’t disgraced when fourth of five in the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle at Doncaster in January won by Nicky Henderson’s Jeriko Du Reponet. The second and third, Lump Sum and Fiercely Proud have since finished first and second in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton to frank that form. The Kalooki Kid has been allotted 124 for this handicap which may be lenient and is worth backing here.   THE KALOOKI KID 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 123   Newbury 1.55 Just nine go to post for the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase run over 2M 3F and 187 yards. Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the race over the years and his representative Kandoo Kid, who may not have stayed 3M last time, has to be respected. I’ll take him on mind with Ryan Potter’s top weight Jetoile who brings some good pieces of form to the table. A good winner of the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree on his re-appearance he wasn’t totally disgraced when fourth of 13 in a Premier Handicap won by GA Law at Cheltenham in January. Dropped a pound for that run he can give weight all round with the booking of one of the best conditional jockeys around Dylan Johnston a positive one with his 5lb claim a bonus.   JETOILE 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Kelso 2.17 The Grade 2 bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle has attracted a dozen promising hurdlers with Nicky Henderson’s Jango Baie bringing the best form to the table with his Grade 1 victory at Aintree on Boxing Day. He does have to shoulder a 5lb penalty mind and a horse who was very impressive here last time out over a two furlong shorter trip is Anthony Charlton’s Alnilam. He coasted through the race and won easily by 13L. This is obviously tougher but his connections were taking him up afterwards and he can step forward again and take this with Bradley Harris despite the fact he can’t claim his 3lb here.   ALNILAM 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Doncaster 2.35 Seven chasers go to post for this 2M 78 yard class 2 handicap chase which has an open look to it. Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero’s seven year old Homme Public appears to have as good a chance as any having won his first two starts over fences at Wetherby and Cheltenham last autumn. He’s not been seen since running a respectable 3 1/4L second to Persian Time at Ascot just before Christmas and remains with plenty of scope for the chasing game. Regular rider Henry Brooke rides and he looks sure to be thereabouts.   HOMME PUBLIC 1 point win @ 3/1 William Hill   Kelso 2.50 The day’s big betting handicap is the bet365 Moorebattle Handicap Hurdle run over the minimum trip of two miles. A maximum field of eighteen have declared for tis valuable £120,000 prize with southern raider Under Control the standout horse. Trained at Seven Barrows by Nicky Henderson she comes here having split two useful Willie Mullins mares in a Grade 2 mares hurdle at Doncaster in the shape of Ashroe Diamond and Gala Marceau. The handicapper could easily have reacted by raising her 7lb or more but only put her up one pound. She’s the favourite here and bids to win this before going to Cheltenham where she has three entries, the County Hurdle, Mares Hurdle and Champion Hurdle. She is the one horse in the race who is maybe capable of taking the field apart and is a strong fancy despite the numbers even if the Henderson stable could be in better form.   UNDER CONTROL 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill   Doncaster 3.10 The 3M 84 yard listed mares novices’ hurdle is up next and has attracted a field of eleven. The best in at the weights is James Moffatt’s Lunar Discovery and it would be great to see him and his jockey Charlotte Jones take a race of this nature. They should run well but preference is for Tom Symonds’s Gaye Legacy who’s a consistent staying hurdler who’s stepping out of handicap company here. She’s hit the frame on all five of her starts this season with her latest effort coming at Newbury when winning a sixteen runner 3M handicap hurdle. Ben Poste is her regular rider and is on board the bay mare today.   GAYE LEGACY 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Kelso 3.25 Just seven go to post for the 2M 7F 96 yard bet365 Premier Chase with Jonjo O’Neill’s Monbeg Genius teeing up for the Grand National for which he is one of the market leaders. Last seen when third in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury back in December he looks sure to run well even if he does come third on official ratings behind Minella Drama who’s not firing at the moment and Aye Right who looks a big danger to the pick. Jonjo O’Neill Junior takes the ride.   MONBEG GENIUS 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365   Doncaster 3.40 A good sized field of thirteen face the judge for the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase run over 3M 2F and 1 yard. Richard Hobson’s Some Scope looks the one to beat but he won’t enjoy slowish ground and is worth taking on for that reason alone. One horse who has a good record here which reads 1U2 is Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Undersupervision who was just touched off in this very race a year ago by Moroder. He’s now 2lb higher and we also have to take a chance that he’s in the same form as last year as he’s pulled up on three of his four starts since although he did show up well when third in a amateur jockeys handicap chase at Cheltenham in November. He’s not the most genuine of horses but has ability and is worth chancing each way.   UNDERSUPERVISION 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 123    

Again to be run on heavy ....all the top races in past 4or 5 weeks have been run on bottomless ground ....I think all the firmlines going into Cheltenham are very suspect if the ground comes up good sft at chelt as none of the prep runs have been on any sort of ground ..  that's why results have been a bit meh and why there have been so many none runners of late ...
Saturdays race rating 
Grandeur dame. 9.0 4/1
Bill Baxter. 8.7 10/1
These two are clear of rest ....

Age – 8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 3 of the last 10 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 5/10 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 1 of the last 10 winners won on their last run before the Greatwood Gold Cup , 8/10 winners ran within the last 42 days
Previous Course Form – 7/10 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury, 2/10 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newbury
Previous Distance Form – 10/10 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 10/10 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 8/10 winners had at least 8 previous chase runs, 10/10 winners had at least 1 previous chase win, 8/10 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 8/10 winners were rated 135 or higher
Graded Wins – 2/10 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/10 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 5/10 winners had at least 1 win that season

no I just used the free subscription white feather found the magazine very good 

Age – 8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 5 and 6
Price – 4 of the last 11 winners were favourites, 9/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 7 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Premier Kelso Hurdle , 9/11 winners ran within the last 50 days
Previous Course Form – 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Kelso, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Kelso
Previous Distance Form – 10/11 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 16-19 furlongs, 10/11 had at least 1 previous win over 16-19 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/11 winners had at least 2 runs over hurdles, 9/11 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 9/11 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Rating – 10/11 winners were rated 131 or higher
Graded Wins – 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 11/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 2 wins that season

Had a small ew on Guns And Flowers in the 6pm 7f handicap at Kempton this evening at 30/1. Best run so far came over C&D two starts back in January, finished 5th but was only beaten 2 lengths and is now 3lbs lower, with Christian Howarth taking off a further 3lbs. Has since run poorly when well beaten at Newcastle but that run can be excused as was over a mile and not all horses take to that track as there can often be a strong headwind. On the aforementioned C&D run, Guns And Flowers finished around 7 lengths in front of Bits And Bobs who reopposes tonight, yet that one is half the price of my selection so looks a bit of value to run into a place.
 
Gavi Di Gavi in the 7pm at 10/1 also may be worth backing as looks a solid ew bet. Finished a length behind today's second fav Lady Of Arabia last time out - that day was carrying 2lbs more than that rival, today carries 1lb less. More importantly, that last race was in a small field where there naturally wasn't much pace. Gavi Di Gavi was held up out the back and was the only horse that wasn't prominent that made the frame. More runners today should hopefully mean more pace which would suit his late finishing run-style.

It's a shame Hugh Taylor was all over that winner but glad you got double figures - well done!

It's a shame Hugh Taylor was all over that winner but glad you got double figures - well done!

It's a shame Hugh Taylor was all over that winner but glad you got double figures - well done!

It's a shame Hugh Taylor was all over that winner but glad you got double figures - well done!