_Ghost_
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Posts posted by _Ghost_
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Still a couple of games to go before we wrap up the first round of fixtures but changes aplenty in the projected bracket; the draw has gone against Ivory Coast and you have to feel for Mali, wherever they end up they're going to play one of the "top 8". I've had half a point on Morocco after what looked a tough route to the final initially seems to be opening up.
Bet
0.5pts Morocco to win Outright @ 9/2 (Various)
- harry_rag and ThunderDan9
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The state of play after 1 completed round of matches...
Oman's defeat yesterday coupled with Thailands victory now see's a projected 3rd place finish and a tie with Japan in L16 for outside pick Oman - a victory over Thailand on Sunday with Kyrgystan to come should be enough for 2nd place finish and back in the lower section of the draw.
Japan still look to have a kind run until a potential meeting with Australia/ Saudi Arabia in the Semis. Iran and South Korea still set for a Quarter Final showdown with the bottom section of the draw looking the most open, Qatar should progress from their L16 tie where they'll meet Uzbekistan or hopefully Oman.
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Take the 20/1 available about Athletic Blibao - only Real Madrid (travel to Atletico Madrid) and Barcelona better on my ratings
- harry_rag and ThunderDan9
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The 2023 edition of the Asian Cup kicks off in the Qatar this Friday.
Current Odds
Tournament Averages since 2011
Asian Cup Quarter Finalists since 2000
Competitive Records v (current) Top 100 FIFA Ranked Nations since International football resumed during the pandemic
Outright Projections
Name the Finalists/ Straight Forecast
Group and Knockout Projections
Bets
1pt Iran to win Outright @ 7/1 (Various)
0.25pts Oman to win Outright @ 50/1 (Various)
Japan are the rightful favourites for me but I can let them win at 5/2. The 4 time champions have a straight forward looking group and are projected a kind route to the Semi-Final. I'll be focusing my attention on the bottom half of the draw which brings me to Iran. The Iranians are favourites to top their group which will land them a L16 tie with a 3rd placed side, they're projected to face South Korea in QF and I would fancy the winner of this tie to make the final, I wouldn't put anybody off backing the Koreans but I prefer Iran as there are a couple of (albeit unlikely) scenarios which could see South Korea run into Japan or Saudi Arabia in the L16. The last section of the draw looks particularly weak, however my pick for an Outsider would be Oman who should back up Saudi Arabia in Group F leading to a L16 tie with fellow group runners up Uzbekistan (the market favors the Uzbeks FYI). Hosts Qatar or 3rd place team await in QF before potentially Iran/ South Korea in a semi.
- Torque and ThunderDan9
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The 2024 edition of the African Cup of Nations kicks off in the Ivory Coast this Saturday evening.
Current Odds
Tournament Averages since 2002 (corners since 2013)
AFCON Quarter Finalists since 2002
Competitive Records v (current) Top 100 FIFA Ranked Nations since International football resumed during the pandemic
Outright Projections
Name the Finalists/ Straight Forecast
Group and Knockout Projections
Bets
1pt Ivory Coast to win Outright @ 7/1 (Various)
The last 7 renewals have produced 7 different winners shows just how open this tournament is I'm in agreement with the market and don't have much at all between the top 7/8 teams in the betting. Looking at how the projected draw shapes up I like the path the winner of Group A has; 3rd place team in the L16 then likely Ghana/ DR Congo in the QF, which ever if those sides progresses will likely be the lowest rated side in the Quarters (pending any upsets) before a Semi-Final showdown with the reigning Champions Senegal. It's the Ivory Coast with their home advantage who get the nod to top Group A over Nigeria.
I usually like to have an outsider on side but looking at the projected draw any outsider is likely going to have to beat 4 of the top sides in the knockouts and i just can't see any of them doing so. I will of course be keeping a close eye on things and if the draw opens up along the way
- ThunderDan9 and harry_rag
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Douglas Luiz is 17/2 (Bet365) to score anytime tomorrow for Aston Villa away at Burnley - took a penalty last week v Everton and again in midweek v Hibs with Watkins on the pitch both times. Villa generally around the 6/1 mark to score a penalty.
Also available at 2/1 for a shot on target (also Bet365)
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Thanks to @harry_rag some great insight posted throughout the tournament - we go again in 4 years!
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The final field of 32 was set with Costa Ricas' victory over New Zealand yesterday, I've been working on some subjective ratings and plugged them into my model today - prices available for the first round of matches and the majority of the second in which case they have superseded my match ratings.
Advised Bet(s) - I like to do a NAP (2pts), NB (1pt), Outsider (0.50pts) and a Long Shot (0.25pts) totaling 3.75pts outlay but I like both my main selections
1.50pts Argentina to win the World Cup @ 9/1
1.50pts Germany to win the World Cup @ 12/1
0.50pts Senegal to win he World Cup @ 80/1
0.25pts Morocco to win the World Cup @ 250/1
- alexcaruso808 and harry_rag
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Here's the first iteration of my projections - not one to get too drawn into transfer business, I prefer to see evidence on the pitch which will be reflected in my ratings after 4/5 games anyway. The exception to this of course is Newcastle with there new found wealth - although in fairness where I've pitched their rating pre-season isn't a million miles away from their rating over the last 24 matches of last season.
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It's been a while since I posted any ratings so without further ado he's the latest 8 and 24 match ratings:
**There's been a few changes to the ratings since the last update; firstly, last x matches are split 50/ 50 home and away rather than the last x matches (eg last 8 matches will be the last 4 home and last 4 away, rather than the last 8 matches regardless of location (in the case of 24 match ratings, of course teams haven't reached this landmark yet so these are effectively season-to-date ratings weighted for home/ away until 12 home/ away have been played . And secondly, strength of opposition (based on market opinion) now taken into account**
Latest projections:
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Looking at this game from a stats perspective I make it in for 2.09 goals with the suprem favouring Everton by 0.02 - if this game was being played a month or so ago I'd be playing No First Goalscorer alongside either Under 1.5 goals or the draw, but it's not it's being played today.
From a psychological perspective it is very much a "must not lose" match for both sides. I think inline with the goal line we can expect a cagey opening, however the longer the game stays 0-0 the more the onus will be on Burnley to come out and attack, a tentative play for me would be Draw HT/ Everton FT, this plays into the narrative that as Burnley press for the winner they can get caught by a sucker punch.
I must caveat all of this with I think if there's an early goal, all bets are off and the floodgates could open as the team that falls behind presses to try and get back into the game.
On my 8 match ratings these sides rank 18th and 19th and over a longer period of 24 matches they rank 18th and 15th with both sides producing some very poor attacking numbers indeed.
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Early xG ratings:
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On 2/24/2022 at 6:31 PM, Xcout said:
Thanks!
furthermore, the columns 1 to 14 is the probability to end in that position?
Correct
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18 hours ago, Xcout said:
Thanks @jamied02
Would it be possible to explain the column headers meaning?
P - Played
Pts - Points so far
F - Expected goals for
A - Expected goals against
GD - Expected goal difference
Prj - Raw Projected points
Adj - Adjusted points (based on historical points averages)
MLS - MLS Cup winner odds
SS - Supporters Shield winner odds
Div - Divisional/ Conference winner odds
#1S - Number 1 seed odds
TQ - To Qualify for the play off odds
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Pre-season projections:
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Pre-season projections:
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Outright tissue from my model;
Name the finalists grid..
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Conference Championships this weekend.. latest tissue..
Name the finalists..
Straight forecast..
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Noticed my NTF grid was using my random draw format (as opposed to fixed draw), here's the correct version with impossible ties removed!
Asian Cup 2023
in Other International Predictions
Posted
Well Japan's defeat at the hands of Iraq yesterday has really set the cat amongst the pigeons.. Iraq need only a point against Vietnam to top the group thus catapulting Japan into the bottom half of the draw and in 90 minutes they've gone from having a soft looking route to glory to arguably the worst! They now look set to meet South Korea in L16 and Iran in the QF - yes that's the top 3 in the betting in the same quarter taking out over 70% of the market!
I'm adding Australia and Saudi Arabia to the portfolio - I see the winner of a potential QF between the 2 making the final.
One final note I'll be keeping an eye on the Iran v UAE match in a few days.. a victory for UAE will see them top the group and Iran will land in the top half of the draw which may not be a bad thing, in which case i'll be topping up on Iranians outright.
Bets
0.5pts Australia to win Outright @ 9/1 (Betway)
0.5pts Saudi Arabia to win Outright @ 12/1 (Betway)