_Ghost_
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Posts posted by _Ghost_
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Here's my weekend tissue - Q is the quality of the match, basically the mean of the 2 sides ratings. As teams are rated between 0-1, the match quality will also be between 0-1, the higher the better.
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Unfortunately not, given the relentless schedule since the restart had to drop some leagues to be able to keep on top of the main domestic and euro stuff ?
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First post in what feels like forever, here's my tissue for the L1 and L2 tonight;
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Bet365 have gone back up with Istanbul Basaksehir at 12/1 for the outright after the weekends results - this is completely the wrong price. Basaksehir won 1-0 away at league favs Galatasaray on Friday night, Pinnacles closing prices for this match suggest that if the two teams met on a neutral ground that Basaksehir would be favs, implying the market rates them the better team. Galatasaray are as short as 6/4 with 365 despite being rated worse than Basaksehir and having amassed fewer points thus far which makes absolutely no sense. It looks as though they've priced this market on reputation only. Basaksehir have finished 4-2-3-2 in the last 4 seasons so it's not like they're coming from nowhere
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A look at some age/ club/ performance based stats for the 20 qualified nations (+ Serbia) ahead of Euro 2020...
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I'm back with my first update in over a year in this thread. The qualification phase is nearing the business end with a handful of nations already qualified, and it's one of said nations which appeal to me.
Italy are available at 16/1, given the nature of the tournament they will likely attain 3 home matches in the group stages, win the group and they will face a kind travel schedule in the knockout rounds with their last 16 match being in London, QF in Munich and a potential SF and F back in London, thus avoiding trips to the likes of Russia and Azerbaijan.
There have been 42 caps given out for Italian matches thus far this season, of those 42 caps, 69% of them have been to players plying their trade in either the Champions or Europa League. Similarly, 69% are deemed to be in either their peak or early peak years. 48% play in either the Champions/ Europa League and are also in their early peak/ peak years.
One more side worthy of a mention are Ukraine who are available at 100/1. They're on a decent run, drew in Portugal and beat Portugal in qualifying, a staggering 91% of their caps this season play in the Champions/ Europa League - granted the vast majority of those will be for Shakhtar or Dynamo but both those sides are competitive if not spectacular. The remaining 9% play in one of the top 5 leagues in Europe. Their age profile isn't brilliant admittedly with only 57% in their peak age range, but I definitely think they have the ability to upset a few teams and could be potential dark horses.
Bet
1pt - Italy to win Euro 2020 @ 16/1 with PP or Betfair
0.5pts - Ukraine to win Euro 2020 @ 100/1 with Various
Already advised
0.5pts - Serbia to win Euro 2020 @ 150/1 with Bet365
0.5pts - Denmark to win Euro 2020 @ 100/1 with Bet365
0.25pts - Albania to win Euro 2020 @ 1,000/1 with Bet365
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Nation Ratings taken over the last 100 matches in the Europa League Proper (since 13/14);
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Nation Ratings taken over the last 100 matches in the Champions League Proper (since 13/14);
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..and MLS Expected Goals Table
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MLS ratings ahead of the play offs...
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Firstly, I must stress that I have had nothing more than a passing glance at this tournement - that being said I think I may have found a speculative, value bet for the Outright. Barcelona are set to play in the Champions League final in a couple of weeks - off that Barcelona team, 12 of them have recently been included in Spanish squads, Barcelona have form beyond this season in the Champions League too - they were Quarter Finalists last year and Semi Finalists the year before. Atletico Madrid were the only side to finish above Barcelona domestically this season, they also boast 10 recent call ups. I'm going to take a chance that the performance of those 2 clubs haven't been reflected in Spain's Outright price. A similar thing happened in the Mens Euro 2020 betting - as Ajax performed above expectations in the Champions League and the emergence of young Dutch talent such as De Ligt, De Jong and Van De Beek, the price of Holland for Euro 2020 began to fall.
Bet
1pt - Spain to win the Women's World Cup @ 25/1 Bet365
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Along the same lines of thinking as my earlier post, it's the African Cup of Nations this summer and I fancy Senegal to have a big tournement - they are currently available at 500/1 for World Glory, I expect this to snapped up should they triumph in Egypt (similarly Qatar were 500/1 prior to winning the Asian Cup in February, now around 150/1)
Bet
0.50pts - Senegal to win the 2022 World Cup @ 500/1 with William Hill
Already Advised
0.25pts - Iran to win the 2022 World Cup @ 1,000/1 with William Hill (boosted to 1,500/1)
0.25pts - Morocco to win the 2022 World Cup @ 750/1 with William Hill (boosted to 1,100/1)
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3 teams stand out for me at the current prices...
Senegal are my NAP and are available at 7/1 - since the start of this season 32 players have made it on to the pitch in Senegal's international matches, of those 32, 25 (78%) are within peak age ranges (21-24 early peak, 25-28 peak) with 26 (81%) playing in the top 10 European leagues, breaking this down even further 22 of those are playing in an elite league (Prem, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga), further more 18 (56%) fall into the peak age ranges AND playing in an elite league. For what it's worth they are also the top African team on FIFA rankings. Senegal should be favourites for me
My N.B. is Ivory Coast who are inexplicably 13/1 with Paddy Power - they may not have the star power of years gone by but 65% of the 20 players to feature this season are playing in the top 10 European leagues, 75% fall into the peak age ranges with 50% peak age and playing in an elite league.
There is one more nation who I feel can't be ignored at current prices and that is Algeria who are 19/1 again with Patrick. Their peak age and players playing in elite/ top european league numbers may not be as fancy as Senegal or Ivory Coast but they have enough quality in their squad and deserve more respect
Bet
2pts - Senegal to win the African Cup of Nations @ 7/1 (Bet365)
1pts - Ivory Coast to win the African Cup of Nations @ 13/1 (Paddy Power)
0.5pts - Algeria to win the African Cup of Nations @ 19/1 (Paddy Power)
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Midweek tissue..
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Midweek tissue...
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One last thing... I actually think LA Galaxy represent appalling value on the outright...
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Swedish projections...
AIK of interest outright at 3/1, as are Hacken at 9/1...
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Norwegian projections...
Brann of interest available at 9/1 for the outright... may be worth following week to week - I seem to rate them a lot better than the market does currently
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Outright projections...
*I'm going to assume that all teams without an outright quote would win the league at least once if I ran more than 5000 sims...
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MLS Outright
Sporting Kansas City are available at 18/1 for MLS glory. As you can see they top my xG ratings for 32 and 16 matches, ranking 2nd and 5th for 24 and 8 matches respectively. They also come in top rated for match ratings, almost 1/10th of a goal ahead of their nearest rivals. I make them around 4/5 to finish top of the Western Conference.
Looking at their squad, they have retained the vast majority of the players that played last season, losing only 1 player who started more than 90% of their matches, further to this, they only lost a further 2 players who started more than 25%.
The average age of the current squad is 26.1 - one worry for me is that only 54% of the squad are in their early peak or peak years, with 4 players who started more than 90% of matches last season considered to be in their roll down years. This could be the last chance for this group of players before the team requires a rebuild
Recommended Bet
Sporting Kansas City to win the MLS @ 18/1 with Betfred
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Week 2 remaining matches tissue...
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Here's a few more things...
Conference Projections (Please note "Win" mean to top the section)...
Week 2 Tissue...
Ratings which are used to compile tissue (both weekly and for whole season which is used to project tables)
Championship Predictions > Mar 9th - 14th
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Here's my weekend tissue - Q is the quality of the match, basically the mean of the 2 sides ratings. As teams are rated between 0-1, the match quality will also be between 0-1, the higher the better.