_Ghost_
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Posts posted by _Ghost_
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Scottish Champ and L1 stats for a laugh...
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Can anybody give me a reason not to back Elgin for L2? As you can see below a mile clear on my shots ratings below, my projections (which are independent from my shots ratings) have them winning the league by 3 points, I'll confess my knowledge of lower Scottish football is limited to the numbers in front of me...
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Below is my tissue/ stats for the first leg of the Conference Semi Finals
Again compared to the 365 prices above the bookies seem to have these matches priced correctly. As you can see NYRB are better than Montreal on all 10 of my KPIs whilst Dallas better Seattle in 8 out of 10, I won't be getting involved in any match betting though as I don't deem the prices value but I expect these two sides to progress. LA Galaxy and Colorado look set for a war of attrition over the next week and a winner looks difficult to call. I'm hoping Toronto can progress from their tie with NYC, I wouldn't put anybody of backing Toronto to win the MLS Cup at 9/1 given how the overall picture looks...
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1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Are these first round of play-off games often this tricky to call? I didn't see that Montreal result coming! Especially without Drogba playing and all the hooha surrounding that episode.
To be honest this is my first proper season covering the MLS, I'm still adapting my methods from the European leagues and seeing what works and what doesn't. I certainly didn't see that Montreal result coming, as mentioned above DC United outperformed them on pretty much all of my KPIs, but that's why we love football, knockout football especially, anything can happen!
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I compile my own tissue prices and in my opinion the bookies have these first round of matches priced correctly. As the odds suggest Toronto should progress comfortably, I think DC outperform Montreal on pretty much all my KPIs above and should progress, if there's going to be an upset Sporting Kansas could be the one, I'm also keen to oppose the Galaxy over the course of the playoffs but maybe not tonight
- pulsar12 and StevieDay1983
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First things first, a quick about me
I was previously a semi-active poster on these boards a few years (under a different username), I’ve decided the time is now right to make my (hopefully) triumphant return. I intend to be posting picks/ discussion topics on a regular basis that will mostly be football and boxing with the odd rugby league and NFL post. The majority of the material I post will be stats/ value based. I’m also hoping to up my activity on Twitter so feel free to follow @jamiedavies02
Now that’s the intro out of the way…
MLS Cup Play Offs 2016
Points to note - The Western Conference winner has won 15 of the last 20 MLS Cups, including the last 7 and 10 of the last 11. During the 2016 season there have been 100 inter-conference matches, when a Western team has hosted an Eastern team their record is 28-15-7 and when an Eastern team has hosted a Weastern team it's 25-15-10, West has the overall lead with a 38-30-32 record.
FC Dallas, Colorado, NY Red Bull and New York City are advanced to the Conference Semi Finals due to their league position, all other sides start in the knockout round.
Below is my shots ratings and data for the teams involved in the play offs fromt the regular season (key also included - any questions please ask) and the latest outright odds.
Scotland, Ireland & Wales > 2016/17 Season - All Bets in there folks!
in Championship Predictions
Posted · Edited by jamiedavies02
I use the Football-Data normally for my ratings, they don't cover lower Scotsfor shot data so I collate that manually from the SPFL website, however I've noticed their shots on target to total shots ratio is alot higher than other leagues (like 50+% compared to 30% other leagues) so I'm airing on the side of caution.
Projections wise I have a tissue price for each teams remaining matches and work out their projected total added to points already amassed, obviously it relies on my tissue being accurate in the first place, this allows me to run simulations for the rest of the season to obtain a rough % chance of a team winning the league. The tissue prices is independent of my shots ratings and takes into account a team 1X2 record over the past 500 days with a base rating for promoted/ relegated teams, the past is the best guide to the future. As I said in an earleir post this is all numbers based, I don't have the knowledge of the intimacies of the lower scottish league like I do for other leagues, that's where this place and other forums will hopefully come in handy, ie put some meat on the bones of the numbers