Wildgarden

Purely from a mathematical view-point the best option for these money back offers is to back the favourite. This is because you have a much higher chance of getting your money back with the favourite.
 

One of National Hunt’s best Saturday’s is nearly upon us with the Newbury Ladbroke Trophy meeting at Newbury where with no rain forecast the ground is likely to ride unseasonably good for the time of year. 
We start the card with the 12.10 and a decent Mares listed hurdle where the most likely winner is Mrs Hyde who took the scalp of Verdana Blue at Wetherby and certainly won’t mind conditions. I’m not entirely convinced Verdana Blue is as good as she once was and with Mrs Hyde carrying a penalty I’ll be looking for some each way value elsewhere. Down at the bottom of the card is the Irish challenger POLITESSE, trained by Mrs Lorna Fowler and ridden by Robbie Power she’s smart having won a bumper, novice hurdle and running a highly promising 5th in a Grade 3 hurdle on her re-appearance where but for a bad blunder would have been placed. She’ll do for me each way against the likely favourite.
 
POLITESSE 1 point each way @ 4/1betvictor
 
Kalooki and Next Destination look the pair to concentrate in the 12.40 and with Kalooki having had the experience of winning at the track three weeks ago (2nd won since) I just favour over Next Destination who makes his fencing debut here but has some excellent hurdle form to his name. Hold That Note wouldn’t be far behind the big two and cant be easily dismissed. 
KALOOKI 1 point win @ 11/4 betvictor
 
The 1.15 looks wide open with many having claims. JP McManus runs four here with perhaps Kapcorse being the most interesting having won this event by 10 lengths two years ago off of a 10lb lower mark but he has a 644 day absence to overcome. Court Master appeals each way – he ran credibly in a decent novice handicap chase at the course three weeks ago and is at the right end of the handicap. Plenty of others can be given a chance but I’ll stick with Michael Scudamore’s 7 year old. 
COURT MASTER ½ point each way @ 9/1 betfred
 
One horse stands out in the next race – the 2m4f118yds handicap hurdle- Tom Lacey’s improver Tea Clipper who won cosily at Chepstow 7 weeks ago and despite a 7lb rise bounces off of good ground and will be hard to beat. Runner up to him at Chepstow that day was the Skelton’s Flash the Steel who re-opposes on 4lb better terms for a 2 1/4l beating so can make the frame. Nicky Henderson runs three with Champagne Platinum the most interesting. He blatantly failed to stay when last seen and he didn’t really convince last season as a chaser so back over the smaller obstacles here could be in his favour. On The Wild Side is a novice in his first handicap for Dr Newland and is also espected but for me it’s all about Tea Clipper on his favoured ground. 
TEA CLIPPER 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365
 
The 2.25 will always be known as the Gerry Feilden despite been re-named by sponsors Ladbrokes. Nicky Henderson ran Epatante in this last year when she blew the opposition away and ended up winning the Xmas Hurdle & Champion Hurdle so his representative Maries Rock has something to live up to here. She is unbeaten in a bumper and two novice hurdles impressing each time and was touted as a genuine Mares hurdle contender before her setback, this is what her trainer had to say about her in recent Racing Post Trainer file “She missed her big day in the mares' novice at Cheltenham after a stress fracture, which wasn't serious. She's summered well, has an enormous engine and is exciting. We've tinkered with her soft palate and hopefully she's top class”. No wonder why she’s been backed from as big as 4/1 at the 5 day declaration stage to her current odds of 6/4. She’ll be hard to beat off of 141 which incidentally is 3lb higher than Epatante ran off in this race last year. There’s some lovely animals in opposition mind including Botox Has a winner at Cheltenham already this season, Sebastopol who’s held in high regard by his trainer Tom Lacey, Milkwood who’s 4th in the Welsh Champion Hurdle looks a very good piece of form and Thyme White who’s been put up 11lb for his Chepstow romp. An outsider who looks overpriced is Seamus Mullins’ The Pink’n. She was 4l 2nd to Botox Has at Cheltenham and is now 4lb better off and then 3l behind Thyme White at Chepstow and now 5lb better off. Both Botox Has and Thyme White are priced around the 6/1 mark whilst The Pink’n is over three times the price a around the 20/1 mark. I’ll play Maries Rock to win and The Pink’n small ew. 
MARIES ROCK (below) 2 points win @ 7/4 betvictor
THE PINK’N ½ point each way @ 22/1 betvictor
 
I’ve dealt with the Ladbrokes Trophy earlier in the week and with the ground as predicted I’m happy enough to be on Secret Investor at 16/1 and The Black Op at 8/1. If you like Secret Investor mind you have to have an interest in Alan King’s Potterman who chased Secret Investor home at Chepstow and was just touched off in the Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton since. It’s a cracking race and lets just hope all 18 come back safely. One thing I would add is to shop around for the best place terms as most firms will be paying enhanced place terms. 
SECRET INVESTOR 1point e/w @ 16/1 (advised on Monday)
BLACK OP 1point ew @ 8/1 (advised on Monday)
POTTERMAN ½ point each way @ 20/1 betvictor
 
The finale is the 3.35, a handicap chase for The Jim Joel Memorial Chase Trophy. Top weight Moonlighter ran a stormer on his re-appearance when running Graneteen a close 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup. The winner is set to take on the best 2 milers in the land next weekend at Sandown and despite a 5lb weight rise he should run well. Western Miller was a long way back in 2nd behind the rejuvenated Rouge Vif at Cheltenham last time whilst Ibleo ran a close 2nd at Ascot first time out but all his form is on very soft ground so it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll handle livelier conditions here. A bit of value for me can be had with the Philip Hobb’s trained Zanza who ran here three times as a hurdler winning twice and finishing a close up 6th in last season’s Betfair Hurdle. He’s only had the two runs this season over fences but both times behind some decent types (2nd to Allmankind at Warwick last time) and should be ready too strike now with the Hobbs team in better form than earlier in the season. 
ZANZA 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365
 
 

Excellent start by The Brigadier with a nice profit for the day including the nap.
Also good to see that he is keeping up the BH tradition with the profits coming from those at 4/1 and above !

A good day for the tips with 6 out of 9 winners for a 8.5 point profit !

A nice 10/1 treble today for the PL tips !

Newbury 1.50( money back 2nd or 3rd)
Tea Clipper 16.78
Amour De Nuit 15.12
the latter offers the best value and is overpriced. 
Amour De Nuit 15/2
Newbury 2.25
Botox Has 20.9
Thyme White 18
the bookies have both of these bang on regarding prices.  Might play Thyme White ew if he drifts out a bit more. 
Botox Has 5/1
Newbury 3.00
Copperhead ew 10/1
Had La Bague Au Roi and Beware The Bear rated just behind but just playing Copperhead as it’s ultra competitive. 

715 Wolverhampton aasda 9/4 bet365 win
Deserved favourite should still be knocking the door and should get through after 2nd lto 4 days ago from what I see.
 
 
 

Phantasmal couldn't follow up but fieldsman wins 9/1 taken / 11.5 BSP.

Phantasmal couldn't follow up but fieldsman wins 9/1 taken / 11.5 BSP.

a couple of places,

Paisley ran well today which is great to see. Not quite grade A Paisley Park but close enough to show us he still has it. Thyme Hill is going to be a very tough horse to beat in the stayers hurdle though. Both will improve from that race.  The winner was getting 3Ibs from Paisley Park and also that was a few pounds below what Paisley Park is capable of. Not ruling anyone else out of the stayers hurdle but the first two today will take some beating providing they get there fit and well. Big race in Ireland this weekend which will tell us more regarding fancies for this race. 

12:35 Southwell Thawry 13:40 Southwell Tom Tulliver 14:45 Southwell Alba Del Sole 15:20 Southwell Le Manege Enchante 15:45 Chelmsford Fircombe Hall 18:15 Chelmsford Bird For Life 19:45 Chelmsford Channel Packet  

Phantasmal couldn't follow up but fieldsman wins 9/1 taken / 11.5 BSP.

Nearly didn't bother with a Trixie today but finally found some possibilities at Doncaster
11.55 Don Yccs Portocervo 5/2
12.25 Don French Paradoxe £2 win at 4/1
2.35 Don Jean Genie £2 win at 11/4
One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £104.81
Other win bets:
12.45 Nb No bet but the Sporting press seem to point to Anemoi saying that Eritage was just a lucky winner last time out.  I'll pass
2.25 Nb sully D'Or AA (what a complicated name) £1 win at 5/1
2.25 Nb San Benedeto £1 win at 8/1
3.00 Nb Paisley Park £2 win at 5.10 = £8.04 (hope he doesn't give me an irregular heart beat)
12.55 Don Ah Well £1 win at 8/1
1.25 Don Pogue £1 win at 4/1
2.00 Don Ballyfarsson 50p win at 66/1
2.00 Don Dieu Bennisse 50p win at 20/1
Multiples = £4
Singles = £11
Total stakes £15
Good luck to all those having  a bet today.  Newbury looks to be a very tricky proposition today
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I had a bad feeling about today's racing and I was right.  I had two seconds but as I don't back each way got no returns.
Multiples = a loss of £4 c/fwd balance £615.94 (Bank £800).  Top rated Multiples - £4 so a c/fwd loss of £7.75
Singles, a whopping loss of £11 sinks my balance to £138.18 (£400 Bank)
Five meetings tomorrow in the UK. Four over the jumps and one All weather.  Some class action at Newcastle and Newbury so fingers crossed I can find some good selections
 
 
 
 

All prices Bet365:
11.55 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Double W's @ 12/1
12.05 Southwell - 1pt e/w Princess Mayson @ 16/1
12.25 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Santon @ 33/1
12.45 Newbury - 1pt e/w Elusive Belle @ 8/1
1.25 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Royal Village @ 22/1
2.25 Newbury - 1pt e/w Cepage @ 8/1
3.35 Newbury - 1pt e/w Couer De Lion @ 8/1

todays selectioons


DONCASTER 11:55 Theflyingportrait 4/1 win

DONCASTER 13:25 Dr Sanderson 3/1 win

NEWBURY 14:25 San Benedeto 8/1 e/w 3 Places

NEWBURY 15:00 Paisley Park 3/1 win

plus e/w yankee

Phantasmal owes you nothing after yesterday pal ?

Loss on places & wins yesterday.
Win Bank €5,160
Place Bank €769
 

320 southwell phantasmal 5/2 bet365 win
Out quick after today's nice win if this is right 
210 southwell perfect rose 13/2 win bet365 and fieldsman 9/1 Betfair sports book win
Perfect rose finding some form now down in trip and fieldsman could start better and in the mix at this weight.
 

1220 southwell phantasmal e/w 9-1 bet365
Changing from Newcastle I can see this one improving today didn't look like jockey got it moving early enough and lost for room last race.

1220 southwell phantasmal e/w 9-1 bet365
Changing from Newcastle I can see this one improving today didn't look like jockey got it moving early enough and lost for room last race.

1220 southwell phantasmal e/w 9-1 bet365
Changing from Newcastle I can see this one improving today didn't look like jockey got it moving early enough and lost for room last race.

Win Bank +€5,781
Place Bank +€1,119

We couldn't have been any more unlucky yesterday!! Shady McGee went off at 6.0, traded into 1.01 (1/100) only to beaten on the line - its very rare but we suffered it yesterday. We also had Ilza trade into 1.10 (1/10) and not close it out which was frustrating. Libberty Hunter did win at 11.0 though which was a nice touch and we'd 7 place out of the 12 to give us a nice profit on the places.

Todays selections are;


11:50 Southwell Lady Isabel 12:20 Southwell Ustath 12:33 Lingfield Miss Molinari 13:50 Southwell Liamba 14:11 Taunton Normandy Soldier 15:20 Southwell Grand Pianola 18:30 Chelmsford Pearl Beach 19:00 Chelmsford Ritchie Valens  

great foresight - take a bow Wildgarden ?