Division
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Posts posted by Division
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English Premier League
Bournemouth v Swansea
Bet: Bournemouth To Score 2 Or More Goals @ 1.9 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 63%
Stake €30 -
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English FA Cup
Chelsea v Manchester Utd
Bet: Chelsea To Win @ 1.8 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 63.7%
Stake €24
Champions League
Monaco v Manchester City
Bet: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 60.2%
Stake €36 -
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English Premier League
Bournemouth v West Ham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.6 William Hill
Estimated Win Percentage: 70.6%
Stake €23 -
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Champions League
Napoli v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.7 Coral
Estimated Win Percentage: 67.5%
Stake €21 -
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All my analysis points to BTTS in the Liverpool v Arsenal game.
I have priced most of the major markets the same as the bookies so this is my only PL bet this weekend.
- andrewcalo, gabymnk and StevieDay1983
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€200 to €10,000 Betting Log
Thread betting guidelines
Football bets only.
I will assign an estimated win percentage for each bet.
I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill
Each bet stake will be for 5%, 10% or 15% of the current bank amount.
*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.
I will kick the betting log off with the game of the week, Liverpool v Arsenal, which could have a big bearing on the Champions League places in the English Premier League.Starting Balance: €200
English Premier League
Liverpool v Arsenal
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 74.4%
Stake €20 -
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I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high.
To quote my opening post:
"This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example."
I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.
Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.
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Results - Betting Round 9
Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Wolfsburg 2-1 HoffenheimCurrent Balance: €69
Champions League
Benfica v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €22Champions League
Real Madrid v Napoli
Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4%
Stake: €25Champions League
PSG v Barcelona
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7%
Stake: €22 -
On 1/6/2017, 10:07:33, Xtc12 said:
Yes Division I have to agree entirely with your comments above but, there is nothing better than trying to find some criteria where you think you can catch the bookies (they are very rarely caught). My missus is constantly berating me as I have paper all over the place scribbling info that I pick up on this site. Yes you need to be careful, that you have backtested it for a long period and then bet small to see if you can beat the bookmaker. As the saying goes "I have yet to see a poor bookmaker" but we all still like to dabble once and all the time. Really LegendMon is testing his system at the moment, and hopefully he gets some satisfaction from what he is doing.
Just for pig iron what do you mean by "Long Term" ?
First, well done to the OP. I don't think this will go anywhere but it will improve you as a bettor and make you think about different ways to price up markets and eventually you will pivot and come up with something new and take some of what you have learned from this experiment.
To reply to Xtc12 when talking about long term statistically significance I would need a backtest of about 1,000 games and much more preferably 10,000.
I am not a high volume bettor and will never reach 10,000 bets but my approach can't really be back tested as I look at many different factors which no formula can replicate but I started betting at 18 and lost for about the first 2 years doing the usual accumulators on the top teams. It didn't work and I looked to approach it from a range of different areas and through trial and error over the years have developed my betting strategy which has led to each season being profitable for me over the last 10 years.
I only bet football and no formula will adapt to this sport well. I have seen some people using complicated algorithms have great success with baseball but I'm talking about a team of people who have maths related PhDs and quite good programmers putting in a couple of years work that are far more advanced than ELO which was originally designed for chess and people try to use it for soccer and other low scoring sports but it doesn't work but looks great when a tout tries to tell inexperienced bettors that its computer generated tips which take human emotion out of the equation and other marketing nonsense.
As an experiment take a game of your choice and play manager for both teams. What are each players strengths and weaknesses? How do you expect the main players to match up against their direct opposition player? What tactics do you think each team will employ against the opposition? Can you pick a couple of teams that have a similar standard and playing style to the teams that are playing in your chosen game. How did those teams fare when they played against the opposition (and their similar teams)? What strategy did the opponent employ against these teams. 1 game should take 2 to 3 hours analysis. If you see something along the way that makes the game not appealing you can stop analyzing it so you don't spend 2 hours on every game, just the ones that look promising for a bet. Pick 2 leagues, stick to that.
If some guy is tipping 8 leagues and 4 different sports he hasn't a clue how to gamble successfully, he is a sports fan that fancies a gamble.
If some guy tells you he analysed 30-50 games a week and he is not a full time bettor he probably at best has some basic formula that he throws in some numbers from the league table which can't tell him if the odds on offer represent value. It doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of match analysis.
The margins in this game are very small and there is little room for error. Professional sports bettors have a level stakes profit long term in the region of 4% to 8% in the vast majority of cases.
If you took 100 average bettors and asked them to spend 1 season just picking 3 games a week to research and chose 1 bet I guarantee you that 80%+ would improve their net profit/loss at the end of the season and learn how to bet on sports which is very different than being a sports fan.
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Results - Betting Round 8
Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
Man Utd 0-0 HullCurrent Balance: €137
English Premier League
Stoke v Crystal Palace
Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3%
Stake: €53English Premier League
Liverpool v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral
Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6%
Stake: €39German Bundesliga
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1%
Stake: €45 -
Results - Betting Round 7
Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla
Betis 1-1 BarcelonaCurrent Balance: €138
English Premier League
Middlesbrough v West Brom
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred
Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7%
Stake: €43English Premier League
Liverpool v Chelsea
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill
Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €36English Premier League
Man Utd v Hull
Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1%
Stake: €52 -
Results - Betting Round 6
Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
Man City 2-2 Tottenham
West Brom 2-0 SunderlandCurrent Balance: €290
German Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3%
Stake: €102Spanish La Liga
Espanyol v Sevilla
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €81Spanish La Liga
Betis v Barcelona
Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8%
Stake: €107 -
Results - Betting Round 5
Swansea 0-4 Arsenal
Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid
Everton 4-0 Man CityCurrent Balance: €197
German Bundesliga
Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7%
Stake: €62English Premier League
Man City v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €58English Premier League
West Brom v Sunderland
Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6%
Stake: €77 -
Results - Betting Round 4
Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
West Ham 1-0 Hull
Everton 0-1 LiverpoolCurrent Balance: €190
English Premier League
Everton v Man City
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
Stake: €58English Premier League
Swansea v Arsenal
Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
Stake: €64Spanish La Liga
Sevilla v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
Stake: €68 -
Betting Round 4:
English Premier League
Tottenham v Burnley
Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
Stake: €99English Premier League
West Ham v Hull
Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €152English Premier League
Everton v Liverpool
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
Stake: €155 -
I would be interested in trialing the software. Can you send me the info? Thanks.
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If its over 1.5 goals it might be legit but the odds for this market are around 1.12-1.25 generally so 80% strike rate is nothing special.
If its over 2.5 goals they say wins 80% of the time then its a scam.
Most websites that attempt to sell you betting picks are scams (99%). Its probably some kid using his parents computer who set up a basic WordPress website.
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I'm wondering if these systems ever work long term? Surely it can't be as easy as doing a relatively simple calculation and just sitting back and watching the money roll in? Everyone with a maths/finance degree and an interest in sport would be able to build something like this easily. There are so many factors that go into pricing up an event that I don't think it could be done for soccer.
From a practical point of view, Aguero and Fernandinho were recently suspended for Man City... how is this represented in your formula?
On a more simple example... Burnley are basically two different teams home and away... how is this factored in? Will their home performance have any bearing on the ratings when they play away?
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Betting Log [Division]
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Bournemouth 2-0 Swansea
Balance: €328