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Division

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Posts posted by Division

    ELO Ratings

    in ELO Ratings Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Division

    I'm wondering how to use the ELO ratings on the website to determine value.

    Todays game between Dundalk v Galway has ELO ratings (4 game average) on the website of:

    • Dundalk 40.75
    • Galway 14.75

    Best Odds:

    • Dundalk 1.2 Boylesports
    • Galway 17.0 Ladbrokes

    How do I convert the ELO ratings into percentage chance of each team winnings and therefore calculate the expected value of each bet?

     

    Also, if one team played the best 4 teams in the league in the last 4 games and the other team played the worst 4 teams in the league in their last 4 games will the ELO ratings take this into account?

    League of Ireland > Jun 26th

    in Ireland & Wales Predictions

    Posted

    I never bet player markets as I haven't found a reliable way to price them up and the handicap markets don't have any appeal to me in this one.

    It took a while to try to find a bit of value on this game as I don't like the long shot bets from a bankroll growth perspective but I'm on this one:

    Irish Premier Division
    Dundalk v Galway
    Bet: A Goal In Both Halves @ 1.5 Ladbrokes
    Estimated Win Percentage: 74%

    Betting Log: 

     

    Betting Log [Division]

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Drogheda 0-6 Dundalk (Bet lost)

    Balance: €384

    Irish Premier Division
    Derry v Cork
    Bet: Cork Win @ 1.67 Paddy Power
    Estimated Win Percentage: 74%
    Stake: €38

    Irish Premier Division
    Galway v Bray Wanderers
    Bet: Bray Win Draw No Bet @ 1.73 Ladbrokes
    Estimated Win Percentage: 70%
    Stake: €38

    Betting Log [Division]

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Shamrock Rovers 2-0 Bray (Bet Lost)
    Sligo Rovers 0-0 Finn Harps (Bet Pushed)
    Juventus 1-4 Real Madrid (Bet Lost)

    Balance: €368

    World Cup Qualifier
    Mexico v Honduras
    Bet: Mexico -1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.0 Bet365
    Estimated Win Percentage: 59%
    Stake: €36

    World Cup Qualifier
    Poland v Romania
    Bet: Poland To Win @ 1.62 Bet365
    Estimated Win Percentage: 67%
    Stake: €36

    Betting Preview Template

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I'm putting together a betting preview template and would value any input. I put something together quickly as I want to get as much input as possible so this is a rough idea what I am considering.

    What do you like (or not)? What would you add to it?

    -----------

    Game & League:

    -

    How is each team performing over the season?

    (Give a small overview e.g. league placing, are they over performing relative to expectations? Are they trying to win the league or are they expected to finish mid table? Ect)

    -

    What is the head to head record?

    (Have these teams played each other relatively recently? What was the result and how did that game play out? Who was the better team in that game? Was the result fair?)

    -

    How have each team done against similar opponents?

    Identify a couple of teams that are similar to the home team in standard and playing style and give a quick review of how the away team did against these two teams. Do the same for the other team. Can you identify a trend from these results?

    -

    What are the characteristics of each team?

    Is the home team a very defensive team or do they like to attack? Do they usually have most of the possession in their games? Do they like to play long balls up to a target man or are they more of a passing team? What about the away team?

    -

    How has each team played in their previous four games?

    (Give results and a small bit of insight into each game and identify they are in good form or bad form relative to their overall season form)

    -

    What tactics will each team employ in this game?

    Will one team try to play for a draw? Is one team far superior to the other and expected to dominate the game? What can each team do to improve their chances of winning? Do you expect a lot of goals in this game? What formation do you expect each team to start with? Ect.

    -

    Who are the most important players on each team?

    Is there a striker that is crucial to his team? A central defender who is the leader of the team? A tricky wingback that will be crucial to his teams chances? Any important injuries or suspensions? Ect.
     

    Betting Log [Division]

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Roma 3-2 Genoa (Bet Lost)
    Fiorentina 2-2 Pescara (Bet Lost)

    Balance: €458

    Irish Premier Division
    Shamrock Rovers v Bray
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.6 Ladbrokes
    Estimated Win Percentage: 70%
    Stake: €45

    Irish Premier Division
    Sligo Rovers v Finn Harps
    Bet: Sligo Rovers Win - Draw No Bet @ 1.5 Ladbrokes
    Estimated Win Percentage: 73%
    Stake: €45

    Champions League
    Juventus v Real Madrid
    Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Goals @ 2.05 BetVictor (90 minutes)
    Estimated Win Percentage: 56%
    Stake: €45

    Betting Log [Division]

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Cork 4-1 Shamrock Rovers (Bet Won)
    Barcelona 3-1 Alaves (Half Win, Half Push)

    Balance: €572

    Italian Serie A
    Roma v Genoa
    Bet: Roma HT/FT @ 1.4 Coral
    Estimated Win Percentage: 79%
    Stake €57

    Italian Serie A
    Fiorentina v Pescara
    Bet: Fiorentina To Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 Coral
    Estimated Win Percentage: 72%
    Stake €57

    Betting Log [Division]

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Betting Log Summary

    Number of bets: 30
    Bets Won: 22
    Profit: €329
    Total Staked: €1,043
    Yield: 31.54%
    Level Stakes ROI: 33.96%*

    *If you bet €100 on each selection you would have a profit of €1,019

    So far so good.

    Betting Log [Division]

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Napoli 4-1 Fiorentina (Bet Won)
    Malaga 0-2 Real Madrid (Bet Lost)

    Balance: €506

    The forum might get a bit quieter over the summer months so I can send tips by WhatsApp also. Send a message to +353857415392 and I'll start a WhatsApp broadcast list.

    Betting Log [Division]

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Italian Serie A
    Napoli v Fiorentina
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
    Estimated Win Percentage: 67%
    Stake: €52

    Spanish La Liga
    Malaga v Real Madrid
    Bet: Real Madrid To Win & Both Teams To Score @ 2.05 William Hill
    Estimated Win Percentage: 56%
    Stake: €52

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