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Results - Betting Round 2
Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia DortmundCurrent Balance: €294
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Betting Round 2:
English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
Stake: €82Spanish Primera Division
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
Stake: €102Champions League
Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
Stake: €98 -
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Betting Round 1:
English Premier League
Hull v West Brom
Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
Stake: €67English Premier League
Swansea v Crystal Palace
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
Stake: €56English Premier League
Man Utd v West Ham
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
Stake: €77 -
I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.
Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.
Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.
I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.
I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill
*This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example.
*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.
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If Liverpool carry their form from before the international break into the game against Southampton there is value in the current price of 2.25.
Southampton kept 3 clean sheets in the league but if you look two were against teams that at that time were woefully out of form and hit with a lot of injuries.
Liverpool are on a great run of winning while conceding - Liverpool win & both teams to score at 4.33 (Bet365) is tempting.
If you think that Southampton could score (4 from 5 home games this season) then it would be better to bet on Liverpool to score 2 or more goals at 2.1 (Coral) or both teams to score at a very tasty 1.7 (Bet365).
*Liverpool have won 7 of their last 8 matches (Premier League).*Liverpool have been winning at both half time and full time in 6 of their last 8 matches (Premier League).
*There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of Liverpool's last 8 games (Premier League).
*Liverpool have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches (Premier League).
*Liverpool have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 away matches against Southampton in all competitions.
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Why risk £1,000?
Do you know of anyone else that successfully did this? I can't find any information about this online. I imagine if this was actually happening the bookmakers would be refunding huge amounts of money. People could basically win tens of thousands risk free annually - each. This would result in multi-million losses per bookmaker...
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I would also be a fan of an extended international break where 4 or 5 games are held.
From a betting point of view these current breaks are a disaster as the internationals are complete guesswork as you don't know how players will gel after only a couple of training sessions and when they come back to Europe from Africa and South America there has to be an element of fatigue and simply disruption to their routine.
I don't think an international friendly at this point in the season brings tangible benefits. More or less a revenue generating exercise which is why it won't be changed by the powers that be.
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The biggest MMA fight night is on 13th November. The best fighters in the UFC are fighting in one spectacular show.
While as a fan I am looking forward to this but from a betting point of view the fighters are all 'known' and the odds are quite accurate.
The only one that I am confident of value is Chris Weidman at 1.66. Khabib is a very exciting fighter but 1.4 is a bit too short. Alvarez is a dangerous opponent so will avoid McGregor this time but he might take a less aggressive approach similar to Diaz II so round betting might be the way to go there.
Does anything stand out to you?
The full lineup is:
Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson TITLE FIGHT
Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor TITLE FIGHT
Chris Weidman vs. Yoel Romero
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz TITLE FIGHT
UNDERCARD
Tim Kennedy vs. Rashad Evans
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Gian Villante
Donald Cerrone vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Frankie Edgar vs. Jeremy Stephens
Liz Carmouche vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Tim Boetsch vs. Rafael Natal
Jim Miller vs. Thiago Alves
Belal Muhammad vs. Lyman Good
Miesha Tate vs. Raquel Pennington
Michael Johnson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov -
Looks to be a decent promotion. They have try something to break the stranglehold of Pokerstars who can increase the rake as they like without fear of losing customers.
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I would second Bet365 as the best bookmaker to start off with and they will double your first deposit up to £200 so it would be good if you can maximize this as its a one time only deal. They also give you a free £50 bet in play on some games from time to time.
As you are betting for a bit of fun I won't recommend that you have multiple bookies to get the best prices but if some day you decide to do that then use PayPal to move money easily between bookmakers. You can also take advantage of a few bookmakers signup bonuses to decrease your risk of betting with your own money.
Bankroll management is important i.e. You will go on a run of losing bets and you need to bet a small enough percentage of your betting funds so this bad run won't empty your account. Generally speaking if you are betting on football, usually at odds of close to evens then simply betting 5% of your betting funds is a solid approach.
When people are starting out they want to win a lot of money from a small amount bet (similar to the lottery) and this usually ends badly. If you really want to have a bit of fun and not deposit more than your initial deposit then your best chance of doing this is to bet singles (instead of accumulators).
More advanced topics involve calculating and finding value but that is a good bit in the future for you. For now just keep a record of all your bets and see where you are losing the most money and gradually eliminate these bets.
Good luck. Never bet what you are not willing to lose. There is no such thing as a sure thing.
- Pick7 and StevieDay1983
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Interesting thread. How did the pending bets go?
Staking plan and expected ROI show that you are realistic so would be interested to see this thread continue.
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I have been doing this a while also and, even with focusing on a small number of teams that I follow in depth, the stats will usually contradict my original opinion on what the best best is.
I don't do spread betting so I'm can't follow what you are saying about that Harry but fundamentally the spreads, like fixed odds, are determined by public perception and so are flawed a large percentage of the time... which allows people to profit long term. I'll have a look at spread betting at some stage in the future and might be able to incorporate it into my pricing model.
Thanks for the replies lads, hope to see this thread grow with a few different opinions on how to approach this so we might all refine our methods.
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I'm wondering what approach people take to selecting a bet and deciding if the odds on offer are value.
I have designed an excel spreadsheet where I input my opinion of the goals scored percentage per team and it generates a table that I can compare to the odds on offer from a range of bookmakers and can quickly see where the value is.
This is the output table for Chelsea v Man Utd.
I can quickly see that the value based on my opinion is on over 1.5 goals.
The odds are not big, but in the long run the most important thing is value.
For someone who wants bigger odds I can see that the next value bet is 'Both Team To Score' @ 1.91 with William Hill which might appeal to most bettors.
This approach has refined my betting dramatically and increase my ROI significantly.
It also highlights to people that while Both Teams To Score offers quite a bit of value in my opinion I expect this bet to lose 40% of the time so bankroll management is also important.
How do you do it?
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I'm curious what bankroll management / staking plan people use. I have outlined my approach below but am interested to hear from other bettors how they approach bankroll management.
I have a very specific betting style which means greater than 90% of my bets are in a few specific markets and the odds are generally within a tight range.
Given my bankroll = €X
I will bet a fixed percentage of Y%.
When my bankroll increases or decreases by Z% I will recalculate my bet of Y%.
Within the Range of X-Z% or X+Z% all my bets will be for the same stake.
I'll give an example
(1) Bankroll = €1,000
(2) I bet a fixed percentage of 2% = €20
I will continue to stake €20 on all my bets until my bankroll hits either €910 (-9%) or €1,100 (+10%)
Once I hit either of these thresholds I will bet 2% of that amount until my bankroll either increases by 10% or decreases by 9% and so on.
The larger your bankroll the smaller your stake percentage and win/loss thresholds should be.
How do you deal with this?
€200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Betting Round 3:
English Premier League
Everton v Arsenal
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
Stake: €81
English Premier League
West Ham v Burnley
Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
Stake: €108
English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Man Utd
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
Stake: €105