pulsar12
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Posts posted by pulsar12
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On 10/5/2017 at 2:31 AM, helderjma said:
Guimaraes - Win
Don't know if they win, Guimaraes has many defensive problems this season. But this match I see there is potential for many goals.
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Feirense - Sporting: bet on feirense if they get behind live if odds get high enough (>30 for win; >6 for 1X). sporting will be stronger than the last match since gelson is fit. but beware of feirense!! this team usually adapts very well to opponents by the second half and has been doing great comebacks lately.
Benfica - Guimaraes: this match decides the championship if benfica win. i expect a very good match because of all the pressure benfica, and also motivation on guimaraes players to show off. i think benfica will make some mistakes on defense but will also score goals. there is also a possibility of guimaraes snatching a win since they are playing good an winning while benfica players may accuse the pressure due to the importance of the match. my bets will be guimaraes over 1,5 (>4,10) and guimaraes win (>10,5).
Porto - Paços: Porto has been inconsistent again. if you get odds over 20 for Paços I think are worth a try.
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1 minute ago, Pipoca said:
Odds opened @5 and crashed @1,40. In Portugal the 3 places where you can legal bet cancelled all bets from that game. I already saw extended highlights from the game. Belive me was totally fixed.... that penalti convertion was just hilarious.
Its the 2nd one this season where Feirense was involved, and both profitable
i also saw the highlights and didnt find anything suspicious. feirense got lucky in getting the win. the penalty hit the post, what is suspicious about this?
yes it is strange that the same chinese guys put money on feirense... but i dont believe it was fixed...
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3 hours ago, Pipoca said:
Game about to start:
Paços Ferreira Vs Feirense - FEIRENSE WILL WIN - MATCH FIXEDTook @2,10 odds are crashing
apparently there was a big bet from the chinese (again) , but this does not necessarily mean that there is a fix. it can be a simple gamble or money laundering.
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I think this is the best value for the week:
Guimaraes - Arouca (guima win EH-1 at 1.95): Guimaraes is expected to have full house of fans, and also all players are available. Guima is on a good run of results with 5W, 1D on the last 6 . Arouca cannot count with key player N. Coelho. their away results are very poor with only 1 point on the last 6 games. Also all of their losses away are with more than 1 goal difference (hence why i have gone for EH-1 instead).
FT 1-0 - lost
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Rio Ave - Moreirense (12/03 18:00 UTC) FT 3-2
This game screams like under 2,5. Both teams struggle to score recently. Also on every head to head match between this two teams, only 1 out of 6 games resulted in over 2,5. No team news to suggest any deviation. So even at 1,44 odds I think it there is some value.
Under 2,5 > 1.44 lost
Tondela - Sporting (11/03 20:30 UTC) FT 1-4
Sporting still without Adrien, and now without Alan Ruiz (one of the best Sporting performers lately). Tondela is poor team, but their best performances are against top teams. Value is all on Tondela, facing a fragile Sporting.
Tondela to win > 9 lost
Guimaraes - Estoril FT 3-3
Guimaraes should win this easy. Soares exit to Porto got significant impact on their goal scoring ability but they are now re-gaining momentum. key player Rafael Miranda is also back to available list and should play (probably not the full match). Estoril coach got sacked 2 days ago because of their poor performances. I don't see any other outcome than Guimaraes winning this one, at home, and with great support from their fans.
Guimaraes to win > 1.50 lost
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Braga - Arouca (04/03 16:00 UTC) FT 3-1
Braga win EH-1 > 2.30 WON
seems that Arouca has returned to underperforming again, on the last match home match they let a 1-0 lead to become a 1-2 loss against belenenses, and they lost 2-0 against Chaves on the previous away match. The new coach 'M. Machado' may have played a role to this results, since his arrival they lost all two games. Braga has also bad results lately but, they are being unlucky in my opinion. May this game once for all be a win in style for them. Key Arouca player 'N Coelho' (D) is out, but 'Artur'(M) is recovered from injury and will play. For Braga, FWs 'Pedro Santos' is cleared from suspension and and 'Hassan' is recovered from injury, so they will be available.Porto - Nacional (04/03 18:15 UTC) FT 7-0
Porto EH-1 > 1.30 WON
Should be an easy win for Porto, they are currently on fire with Soares and Nacional has been conceeding many goals away while scoring very few, they are on relegation zone.Feirense - Benfica (04/03 20:30 UTC) FT 0-1
Feirense to win > 9.25 LOST
This is a tricky match, because Benfica has CL game next week. And I remember that one of the Benfica worst performances this season was before a CL match on the next days. It was a 2-1 defeat against Maritimo. So at this price I think it's worth the risk on Feirense which has 3 W on the last 6 matches at home.Sporting - Guimaraes (05/03 20:15 UTC) FT 1-1
Guimaraes to win > 7.00 LOST
The obvious value here is on Guimaraes with such great odds. Sporting playing weak football at the moment, and on top of that their key player Adrien is not playing because of injury. Even with Adrien playing on last games at home, they struggled to win against Feirense and got very lucky to win against Rio Ave. No reason to believe this time will be different. Guimaraes has been improving again since Marega return. -
Moreirense - Boavista (Friday 03/03)
Boavista haven't lost away last 6 matches (3W, 3D). Two of those draws were against Benfica (3-3) and Chaves (0-0). To note that Boavista has been improving in general with solid football. Last game against Porto they played good even without their key player Idris (suspended), but he is back for this match. Since January Moreirense has not impressing with disappointing home draws against Estoril and Feirense.
AH+0 Boavista > 1.93 (RETURNED)
FT 0-0
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Estoril - Sporting (25/02/2017, 18:15)
Adrien is currently injured and will be out of the field for at least 6 weeks. And even with Adrien on the field on the last match against Rio Ave, Sporting was very lucky to come with a win because Rio Ave had plenty of missed chances. In addition to miss Adrien, another factor against them is the tense climate at the club. Now from Estoril, I was not expecting better results with the new coach, but the truth is that Estoril is improving and they have been unlucky in not getting better results lately. They will go with 2 important players out: Moreira (GK) and Mattheus (M), but even though the odds are good facing a fragile Sporting.
Estoril win > 8.25
Estoril over 1,5 goals > 5.00
FT 0-2 Lost, incredible how Estoril looked like a team of retards today.
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Maritimo - Sporting
Facing the current drama at Sporting the obvious bet goes for Maritimo at that price.
Maritimo to win > 5.30
(2-2 FT)
Benfica - Tondela
Poor Tondela always as been taking points from big clubs, the exception is against Benfica :D. On the last occasions between these two is not that rare Benfica to score plenty on the first half.
Benfica EH -2 HT > 5.30
(0-0 HT)
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Chaves - Sporting (pt cup, tuesday)
There is an enourmous pressure affecting Sporting at the moment. Nobody is happy with the team performances, and the president attitudes also does not help. On the last draw on saturday, just after the game finnishes , president gone straight into the dressroom and had a ranto against the players performance blaming them for the results, with players immediatly not agreeing and responding. This leaked into the media and on the next day, the same players gone to tell on controversial interview on club tv channel saying it was a 'normal' discussion.
Its obvious the players are not the ones to blame for the team bad performance. Coach and president are.
Chaves worth a try here, facing all the sporting drama.
Chaves to win >5.85
(1-0 ft)
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Some drama is going on Portuguese football - Referees are under a lot of pressure by the clubs and fans after the losses of Porto and Sporting on last league cup matches. (Benfica was the only one to win). this may have influence on the result of the big club matches this week.
Tondela - Arouca (08-Jan) > FT 1-2
Tondela is fragile team at the moment, since their defeat on Nacional. Playing at home against an effective Arouca, I see potential away team to win and by more than one goal.
Arouca win > 3.00
Arouca EH-1 > 5.35
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Estoril - Benfica (ft 0-1)
Estoril has sacked their coach "Fabiano" and hired spanish "Pedro Carmona", which is know for his poor results on Betis (as assistant coach, betis was relegated) and also has few knowledge of portuguese league (. This is also his first time as a main coach). He told to the media that he wants to win Benfica and he wants to win all the league games and go to Europa League... he also said that has been working very hard last days to implement his ideas to the players..... well i think he is rushing too fast and overconfident, so I expect a disorganized and unbalanced Estoril team, so Benfica can make a goalfest on this one. Also, Estoril has some important players unavailable
Benfica EH -4 > 8.75
1st half Benfica EH -1 > 3.25
1st half Benfica EH -2 > 7.75
1st half Benfica EH -3 > 15
over 4,5 > 4.25
all lost
Rio Ave - Nacional (ft 2-1)
Nacional turn around last game from 0-2 to win 3-2 against Tondela, but this was pretty much due to Tondela demerit than anything else. Just look at the way how Nacional goals were scored and you see what I mean... Rio Ave shows much better football than Nacional and should win this.
Rio Ave win > 1.86 - won
Moreirense - Arouca (ft 1-4)
Arouca has been improving lately, I hope to see them reach the past season quality soon. Last match home loss against Rio Ave is misleading, Arouca did well on the match.
Arouca win > 3.50 - won
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Boavista - Guimaraes
Boavista still has 2 major elements suspended (Henrique and Idris), and this team is much weaker without Idris. Guimares has Moussa Marega back, the league top scorer and most lethal player on counters.
Guimaraes EH-1 > 3.75 - lost
Guimaraes EH-2 > 8.00 - lost
FT 1-2
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Chaves - Moreirense (ft 2-1): expect chaves to win here, they are doing a good season and play better football than Moreirense. chaves win > 2.35 - won
Nacional - Tondela (ft 3-2): Nacional is under enoumous pressure and this match can be decisive for the future of the coach. They absolutely must win this match. However on the other side we have a tricky Tondela team who is cabable of the worse but can also surprise its opponents. I think Tondela can win this as Petit should employ a defensive style and exploit emotive Nacional on the counter-attacks. tondela win > 3.75 - lost
Benfica - Sporting (ft 2-1): Benfica goes with a weakened defense for this game, Luisao+Lindelof as CB. (Grimaldo and Eliseu still injured). This duo has been conceding some goals on latest games, Luisao seems slow and Lindelof unsynchronized. On the attack i think they are fine, Jonas may return on this match and only Andre Horta is missing. Sporting is under big pressure since they got out of the european competitions midweek and this game is decisive for their hopes to win the league. Their biggest weapons on this match i think will be Gelson and Adrien. Even though history says head-to-head are are tight low scoring matches, in this case I think this match has potential for goals as Sporting is very likely to score to this Benfica defense but I believe Benfica coach should employ an attacking mindset to score more than Sporting.
Adrien Silva to score anytime > 5.95 - lost
Gelson Martins to score anytime > 4.65 - lost
Benfica EH-1 > 3.85 - lost
over 4,5 > 6.55 - lost
BTTS > 1.80 - won
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Legia - Sporting
This is interesting game, Sporting will have a very important match against Benfica next weekend and at the same time if they lose this game they are out of europa league. Also the conditions will be adverse for Sporting (snow) on Legia field. On top of this, Jesus coach is known to underperform on critical decision matches. I have serious doubts on this one, and so I think the Legia win is worth the bet at 4.20.
For Benfica-Napoli match today, its a shame that Grimaldo will not play for Benfica and also Eliseu, even though will bet on EH-1 for Benfica at 4.2, because I believe if Benfica wins will be more than 1 goal and there still is potential for that. Since Benfica defense is weaker without Grimaldo and Eliseu, will go for over 4,5 at 5.65. BTTS is a good bet also if above 1.80
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6 hours ago, pulsar12 said:
Boavista - Sporting
Boavista has been a solid team, mainly at home. I will try them at odds 11.50. Sporting has Adrien back again, but even though, they didn't yet prove their consistency...
i did a mistake on analysis of this tip. Didn't know that Medeiros, Idris, Bukia e Henrique are not available for boavista this match. It loses all the value without this players, it becomes a b team. Sporting already 0-1 up, probably will score more... handicaps for sporting value.
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Boavista - Sporting
Boavista has been a solid team, mainly at home. I will try them at odds 11.50. Sporting has Adrien back again, but even though, they didn't yet prove their consistency...
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Tondela - Guimaraes
If the hosts dont adopt a purely defensive counter-attack strategy, there is the possibility of crush from away side. Likely homeside will not play too defensively because they are playing at home, and guimares should exploit that. They dont have Marega, but I dont think will make that much difference because this is a small stadium, soares should get the job done.
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Benfica handicaps are good because while Benfica is a solid consistent team, Napoles is inconsistent and also benfica is capable of scoring plenty of goals. So I think if they win, it will by more than one goal for sure. Else, Napoles can win or draw. (I hope not eheh)
Porto odds too low, Leicester maybe interesting but i am not following the team.
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This weekend will be no 1st league matches, only nation cup and 2nd league.
Feirense - Academica ( today 16:00 GMT)
Académica has been doing a poor season. By the way, their coach has no good record on any past club, and it seems trend continues. I think Feirense win this one easily.
Feirense EH-1 > 3.25 ( Lost, 0-0 FT)
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Cup game tonight Sporting - Praiense.
Praiese is from 3rd division, and Sporting are big favourites, but Praiense has an excelent record of winning 8 and draw 2 from the last 10 matches.
According to news, Sporting is expected to put 2nd line of players as you can look here http://www.zerozero.pt/news.php?id=184378
As you see Adrien is not expected on start eleven, and many of other players are not regulars. If that eleven is confirmed, I have no problem to bet on Praiense during live match for a short timeframe(next goal, ht outcome...), because is possible that Sporting could turn around the game on late stages with key player substitutions.
An additional note: there is recent big scandal affecting Sporting president that happened on the last game with arouca. He is accused of provoking and spitting on Arouca president face ( there is public surveilance video that proves it). I don't know how much this will affect today team performance, but in my opinion this president has been degrading Sporting in long-term, with his decisions and attitudes. Video here:
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10 hours ago, arsenalfh said:
I have Portuguese family that are all Portistas so I went over to the Classico. Went to the game when I was young in Antas but and the game lived up to all expectations. Great football, unbelievable atmosphere and drama at the end. Unfortunately Porto couldn't hold out. Would definitely recommend any football fan going over for the game at some point and there's plenty to do in both Porto and Lisbon which are both beautiful cities.
Porto are a funny team. They've looked fantastic at times this season including in the Classico but also completely rubbish going forward. Maybe it's because their attack is very young but if it's just the case of the team needing time to gel I think they can push Benfica for the title.
It will be hard for Porto to win the title. Benfica is very strong currently at all levels: skill, management, team harmony, values. Unless they get unlucky with important injured players, I believe they finnish with top with large difference of points.
Sporting is the one without any chance at all, mainly because their awful management. They probably end 4th or below.
Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions 2017/18
in Portugal Football Predictions
Posted · Edited by pulsar12
Belenenses-Feirense
Value on Feirense to win (odds > 4.00) and with possibility of big margin win(look to handicaps also). This Belenenses with the new Coach Silas has been highly volatile (it was already not consistent before, but now is more polarized). Feirense has all squad available, although they have been not so great this season, I have confidence that coach Nuno Manta will bring adequate strategy for this game. The main highlight here is that Belenenses is fragile, and Feirense is capable to capitalize on it. Just remember that Aves win 5-2 in a recent match at Belenenses home, and they are worse than Feirense in my opinion.
Maritimo-Guimaraes
Guimaraes is facing many troubles at the moment. Got destroyed at home by Braga 0-5, their key MF player Raphinha has injury, the defense was already bad this season should be even worst for this game because DFs Jubal and Pedro Henrique are injured. Is true that Maritimo is not in good form, but I think Guimaraes is much more weakened. Its quite surprising to me that bookies consider Guimaraes as favourite. Maritimo win odds > 2.86
Portimonense-Porto
Portimonense plays good aggressive style and is one of the most charming teams to watch in the liga. Porto also has been good lately. However is not so uncommon for them to slip away from home, and they do not deal well with agressive teams. Key defender "Alex Telles" is not available for Porto. One scenario I dont see likely is the draw due to the styles each team play. Porto are favourites to win but not so much. Value on Portimonense win (odds >8 )
Moreirense-Sporting
Sporting is given signs of tired team. I think manager does not rotate players well, he even admit it on the last game against Astana facing physical problems shown by key striker "Bas Dost". Yes they are still favorites to win this game against the last on the table Moreirense, but I think people are putting the odds too low. Moreirense have new Coach "Petit" and the tactics he employs against Sporting (and their coach Jorge Jesus) always have been very effective since when Petit was coaching Tondela (you can go lookup those matches Tondela vs Sporting, when Petit was still coaching Tondela). Adding to this that Sporting had a match with Astana on Thursday so the squad will be even more tired. After mixing all of this, I conclude there is value on Moreirense or draw : draw odds > 6; away win odds > 16.