pulsar12
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Posts posted by pulsar12
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5 minutes ago, NoFear said:
any tips for today?
I don't find any value bet pre-live but Estoril - Tondela should be interesting to follow. I am curious about tondela strategy for this game, and i think anything can happen here since Estoril has not been impressive this season. Estoril coach said that they must win, so I expect them to play aggressive on attack. Tondela best strategy is to totally defend and play on the counter like they did with Sporting, in that case they have possibility to get a win.
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22 hours ago, pulsar12 said:
Guimaraes - Nacional (Fri 20:30 GMT) FT 2-1
Guimaraes big favourites here, and I think they can crush Nacional with Marega on the counter and with space. Nacional still not convincing on the attack and defensively unstable. By the Nacional coach words, seems that he wants to play open and discuss the game, if this is confirmed during live match I think Guimarães have a real chance of win by big difference of goals.
Guimaraes EH -1 > 2.30 -lost
Marega to score 2 or more > 5.83 -lost
Marega got red card early and doomed the tips. To note the very good reaction by Guimaraes after start losing 0-1, due to the great fans support. (an important note for future bets).
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Guimaraes - Nacional (Fri 20:30 GMT)
Guimaraes big favourites here, and I think they can crush Nacional with Marega on the counter and with space. Nacional still not convincing on the attack and defensively unstable. By the Nacional coach words, seems that he wants to play open and discuss the game, if this is confirmed during live match I think Guimarães have a real chance of win by big difference of goals.
Guimaraes EH -1 > 2.30
Marega to score 2 or more > 5.83
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Porto - Benfica ( 6 nov)
Porto are nowhere near to be favourites to win this game, but odds show otherwise. Any odd higher than 3.00 has value for Benfica
Benfica to win >3.60
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6 hours ago, DrO said:
I've been following your posts on regular basis. What do you think about Sporting's game tomorrow against Dortmund? Is Andre Silva available for the match?
Thanks for your confidence :). You mean Adrien Silva, he is recovered from injury but probably the coach will not give him many minutes due to long time without playing.
I expect Sporting to play conservative, and judgding by Dortmund last results I dont have confidence on them to win easily either. So no value pre-live for me. But is an interesting match to follow live.
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Benfica to continue the good form and win easy tonight. Yarmolenko is injured and cannot play for dynamo, its a big advantage.
Benfica eh-1 > 2.50
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On 10/28/2016, 11:45:30, pulsar12 said:
Arouca - Marítimo (30 Oct 16:00 GMT+1)
Maritimo to win > 3.10 - lost
Rio Ave - Guimaraes (30 Oct 18:00 gmt+1)
Guimaraes to win > 2.80 - won
Some post-match notes on this weekend:
-Guimaraes is lethal team if you give them space behind your defense. Marega forwarder is very important and has more potential on wide stadiums with plenty of space. so is a good team to bet for handicaps.
-Guimaraes result against Rio Ave is misleading, there was a critical moment when it was 0-1, there was plenty of chances for rio ave to score. They didn't score and after guimaraes makes the 2nd goal, its all guimaraes, it could end 0-4. But if Rio Ave was able to draw, i think this could end 1-1.
-Arouca win against Maritimo is misleading, they got lucky win the end with a big mistake (unforced error) from a defender. All the game they produced almost no ofensive threat. Maritimo played better, however uninspired up front.
-Tondela trend mantains... ( they are only good at parking the bus ). When they open up the game, anything can happen. Rule of thumb - back the highest odd on 1X2 market.
-Porto still showing some inconsistency. Benfica flying top. Sporting appaling.
-Beware Boavista - despite not being great, they have solid football and can exploit unbalanced teams.
- NoFear and Sir Puntalot
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On 10/27/2016, 10:27:31, pulsar12 said:
Nacional - Sporting (28 Oct 21:00 GMT+1)
over 4,5 > 5.30
Nacional to win > 7.75
BTTS > 2.00
didn't expect 0-0 FT, well...
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Arouca - Marítimo (30 Oct 16:00 GMT+1)
Arouca has been doing an appalling season :(, and their important defensive midfielder Nuno Coelho is not available for this match. On the opposite side, we have a Maritimo that is improving with the new coach. Alex Soares will not play this game due to injury, but is not as important as Nuno Coelho for Arouca.
Maritimo to win > 3.10
Rio Ave - Guimaraes (30 Oct 18:00 gmt+1)
Guimaraes has been doing a good season and for this game they have an edge because the current coach of Guimaraes was training Rio Ave last season. Rio Ave has been somewhat inconsistent this season, the only big win was against Sporting Lisbon.
Guimaraes to win > 2.80
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Nacional - Sporting (28 Oct 21:00 GMT+1)
Nacional stadium (Choupana) is known for its difficult climate conditions (located at 600m of altitude). Tomorrow the prediction is to be cloudy with rain, windy and possibility of thunders.
Sporting still without reference player Adrien, so expect an unstable team.
Nacional defense is one of the poorest with 13 goals against, and they will be without Tobias defense player for tomorrow(due to sporting loan). On attack, forwarders Cadiz and Witi will not play due to injury but Hamzaoui will return to produce good combination with Agra and Tiago Rodrigues.
I think tomorrow anything can happen, but one thing i am confident is goals. Sporting can score plenty but can also screw up on the late stages of the game (as usual), or Nacional could eve win like Rio Ave did. I would not be surprised if this game end with result like 2-2, 3-2, 1-4...
over 4,5 > 5.30
Nacional to win > 7.75
BTTS > 2.00
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@Filixlion beware Sporting at the moment and they are still without Adrien... forget about the past season game, today they are different team. Yes, Nacional didn't start the season well and show's inconsistency, but even though i wouldn't bet on Sporting -1 only at 2.18. This usually is a difficult stadium because of the foggy conditions and high altitude, and notice that Nacional lost 3 games at home (not 4), two of them against Benfica and Porto and the other against Chaves which is doing very good this season. I will wait until tomorrow news and to see weather and players available and then share my tips.
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On 10/21/2016, 11:37:15, pulsar12 said:
Sporting - Tondela (Saturday)
X2 > 4.5
Tondela win > 16.0
Belenenses - Benfica (Sunday)
Benfica EH -2 > 3.95
Tondela almost win
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Sporting - Tondela (Saturday)
Tomorrow will be light rainy day on Lisbon, which will be good for Tondela fast forwarders Murillo, Moreno, Wagner. Additionally, Tondela players usually put good performances against the big clubs. last season they got a draw here and could have won. Sporting still without Adrien which is very important player for the team coherence. Expect a good performance from Tondela and not so good from Sporting.
X2 > 4.5
Tondela win > 16.0
Belenenses - Benfica (Sunday)
Belenenses facing internal issues recently involving the previous coach, the management and a player named Sturgeon, which is one of the best Belenenses players in my opinion. The previous coach decided to leave the club 2 weeks ago (prior to 1-0 to win against Boavista and then 2-0 loss against poor Académica from 2nd league, already under the command of new coach Quim Machado). The fans are not happy with the management decisions always cycling the club with many coaches on the last seasons due to internal conflict. By the way, the previous coach ( Velazquez ) was doing very good with the club and one of the reasons for the breakup was a recent issue with player Sturgeon (Management wanted to punish this player because of lack of focus on the club but the coach was not in agreement).
Belenenses probably without Miguel Rosa (important player) and Vítor Gomes both due to injury.
Benfica still without important players (Jonas, Horta, Almeida, Rafa), nevertheless I expect them to win comfortably.
Benfica EH -2 > 3.95
- NoFear, Sir Puntalot and DrO
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2 hours ago, chris666 said:
Southampton currently 3.2 (11/5) @bet365, so get on quick! Or if you prefer the safer option of dnb at 2.1 (11/10). Also fancy Feyernoord to beat Zorya although not a great price at 1.57 (4/7), although Feyernoord have won 5 out of the last 6 home European games.
I will go for South EH -1 @6.00. The risk/reward seems better. Inter is always losing by more than one goal.
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Inter without Joao Mario. Southampton value at 2.90 ?
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Dynamo Kiev - Benfica:
Expect a good Benfica performance today. They are confident and cool about this game. Some players return from injury ( Jardel, Raúl Jiménez ,Samaris), although from those three only Jardel is the most fit to play. Benfica still has important players injured ( André Almeida, André Horta, Rafa Silva, Jonas ), but I think they will work well as a team anyway. On the other side, Dynamo players accuse lack of motivation and the club is underestimating Benfica capacity (from what i see on the news). I have that gut feeling that Benfica wins today, odds are reasonable at 2.90.
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Sporting will face Dortmund at home tomorrow. Adrien Silva and Jefferson will be out due to injury. Without Adrien, team usually becomes weaker and inconsistent. For example on the 2-1 loss against Real Madrid, team performance decreased much after Adrien replacement (73'), and conceaded two goals. Against Estoril, Adrien goes out at 76', and concedes two goals (4-2 FT win sporting). On the last game against Guimaraes, they conceded 3 goals on the last 15 minutes (ended draw 3-3 FT!!). Adrien was replaced earlier on this game at 36' (winning 2-0 already). There are two important patterns to understand on this Sporting, they usually conceed on the late stages and the team performs much worse without Adrien. On the positive side, the biggest weapons tomorrow against Dortmund will be Gelson and Bas Dost but i don't think this will be enough.
What is your feedback about Dortmund?
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On 10/14/2016, 12:39:35, capri said:
I have a funny feeling Liverpool are going to win 3-0, 4-0, something like that. I think Watford will beat Middlesbrough, and Stoke, Chelsea and Bournemouth should win, but like others have mentioned all the rest are a bit iffy and could be a fair few 1-1's...
Usually will go for a few over 2.5's and Liverpool, Watford and the Chelsea game I would say have decent chances.
I would avoid the Arsenal game, always dodgy when a new manager has his first game, it might happen in this one.
good tips there mate :), I actually did a multiple on "Stoke, Chelsea and Bournemouth", and simple bets for watford & liverpool -1,5. Multipe and watford is already won, lets see tomorrow.
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On 10/12/2016, 10:47:06, pulsar12 said:
Portugal cup games coming next week. So far there is a no brainer bet for me:
Sertanense - Tondela (16 oct)
I already talked about Tondela players psych weakness, as always this is the major factor on my bets against them unless proven otherwise in future. Additionally they have 3 players out for this game because of red card punishment(keeper Ricardo Janota and wings Fábio Nunes and Mamadu) Sertanense is playing on a 3rd league championship but they are onfire, with 8 games in row winning and on 1st place of the table.
I believe there are good chances ( i would say 40%) for Sertanense to win this
Sertanense to win >4.80
lost - FT 0-4
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7 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Interesting tip there @pulsar12. How familiar with Portuguese football are you?
I'm portuguese living in portugal
. Since last year I am focusing in depth on our league football.
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Messi could make a difference, but about your statement as they keep losing.... Yes I think it is possible they to keep losing unless something changes. The same way a bottom team can keep winning without losing, like Leicester past season.
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On 10/10/2016, 11:21:36, WinningAdvice said:
Bet on two things. An Atleti win and a Barcelona victory. If they disappoint me then I think I have to analyze if I have to continue betting.
Why Barcelona? they are having awful performances lately... I don't follow this league in deep but it is my impression from the news highlights.
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Portugal cup games coming next week. So far there is a no brainer bet for me:
Sertanense - Tondela (16 oct)
I already talked about Tondela players psych weakness, as always this is the major factor on my bets against them unless proven otherwise in future. Additionally they have 3 players out for this game because of red card punishment(keeper Ricardo Janota and wings Fábio Nunes and Mamadu) Sertanense is playing on a 3rd league championship but they are onfire, with 8 games in row winning and on 1st place of the table.
I believe there are good chances ( i would say 40%) for Sertanense to win this
Sertanense to win >4.80
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3 hours ago, pulsar12 said:
Today there is a league cup match
Feirense - Tondela (16:00 GMT+1)
Murillo will not play for Tondela and Tiago Silva is doubtful for Feirense. Tondela is confident and motivated by the late win against Pacos de Ferreira, but anyway they can screw up anytime. So, all I am gonna use to justify my pick is Tondela players inconsistent psychological attitude. Feirense is more solid mentally.
Feirense EH -1 > 3.85
ft 3-0 pick won.
Portugal Primeira/Segunda 2016/17
in Portugal Football Predictions
Posted
Fejsa and Grimaldo are confirmed out due to injury. Both are important players, even though i think Porto odds are still not worth.