potus
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Posts posted by potus
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20 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:
The selections:
4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11
You're not having that and you're certainly not having that as an 8/11 shot.
Can you please engage in the discussion regarding this tournament, because we're all here to try and make profit and I think I'm making an important point. I may be wrong but if so can you at least tell me where I'm going wrong. Thanks.
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9 hours ago, Sun of Macedon said:
09.05.2016
491. Miami -5 @ 1.971 (5Dimes) 2 units
492. Golden State -5.5 @ 1.943 (Pinnacle) 2 unitsYou lucky, lucky boy.
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51 minutes ago, BigMozzyDog said:
So far this term, both of these two sides have struggled to find consistent form, and have needed some of their big name players to perform in order to still be in contention. That said, Pune look to need a win much more than Sunrisers here, with anything less looking likely to mean an end to their campaign.
There has been plenty of bad luck in the RPS season so far, with their two flagship batters no longer fit to play, in KP and Faf du Plessis. That kind of upheaval is no good to any side. On the flip side of that, Sunrisers have barely changed their side, and their marquee player, David Warner, has already won them five games.
That is why Sunrisers sit second, and Pune lie second bottom. But can those fortunes be reversed in this crucial game.
Like their opponents here, Pune are relying heavily on Aussies for the rest of the competition, with the stunningly good Usman Khawaja at the top of the order, and George Bailey brought in from the IPL cold that saw him unsold at the original auction.
They are strong in terms of domestic talent, with MS Dhoni, Ajinkya Rahane and the so far disappointing Ravi Ashwin. If they can gel as a side in this debut season, they could finish the campaign very strong.
What they seem to lack is a coherent method, instead they chop and change their approach, and a lot of that comes from not knowing where their strengths lie. In their last game they threw away a winning position when setting RCB at 192 target. Granted, Virat Kohli’s ton was incredible, they looked lost in terms of where they wanted to bowl. Maybe this season is just a little early for them, especially with the loss of their power hitter, KP so early.
Sunrisers have been the surprise package of the IPL so far. Quite rightly much has been made of the performances of David Warner, who has been in sensational nick, but Mustafizur Rahman deserves a mention.
A skilled death bowler who rarely goes for more than 6 an over, Rahman has added wickets to his game, and is one of the most effective bowlers in the IPL. Alongside Bhuvaneshwar Kumar and Ashish Nehra, they form a formidable three pronged seam attack. And with Shikhar Dhawan back in form, they could be well set for a tilt at the title.
You can back Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11 with Skybet.
Another interesting market is the top batter market, where we recently pulled out a 100/1 shot in the form of Shakib al Hasan. In this game, Yuvraj Singh looks to present some real value. A former top priced player at this competition, Singh is a big hitter who seemed to be finding some touch last time with a sneaky 39. Batting at four, he could have a big role to play if Warner fails, so on that basis he looks like real value.
You can back Yuvraj to be top batter at 16/1 with Skybet.
The selections:
4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11
1pt Yuvraj to be top batter at 16/1
I asked before and you didn't answer, so I'll ask again....
The match betting markets in this tournament so far have been an absolute lottery and if anything games are more regularly being won by the opposite team to the one that any thought or logical processes would arrive at. Everyone else appears to have given up on match betting long ago, so what on earth are you seeing that makes you think that backing 8/11 favourites is in any way profitable? This has been a total lottery, I appreciate if you want to share your knowledge but knowing 'when to fold them' and say 'no bet' would also be an acceptable way to show your knowledge.
I just can't see that Sunrisers at 10/11 would be any sort of value, let alone 8/11. I'm confused. As the saying goes 'insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.'
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The silence on here says it all really, this tournament has turned into a bit of a farce.
One thing that all sports need to find is the balance between being boring/predictable with the same teams/players winning all the time and being a lottery where anyone can win and there is no consistency from game to game/week to week. The IPL is currently falling far too far into the latter category. Every game is a complete lottery where you have no idea who is going to win and there is no sort of form or momentum whatsoever.
You have far too many players who can be world beaters one game and donkeys the next or vice versa. Players with huge reputations who fail to perform over and over again. T20 cricket and in particular the IPL got it right for so long, but for some reason this tournament has been a step too far. Maybe there have become too many of these super league franchise tournaments around the world, in particular this year, with the World Cup squeezed in the middle. Maybe the IPL with just 8 teams is too small now and needs 10 or 12 teams to make it a decent tournament.
I've lost a lot of money today and an even bigger amount of potential winnings, on another lottery of a game, from two of the biggest hit-and-miss teams out there and some of the biggest hit-and-miss players as well. Upsetting, I used to love this tournament as well.
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Waggy, I was genuinely heading to your other thread - the 'new car' one - to praise you for surprising me by sticking to your strict betting rules so far and to urge you to keep it up. However, on the way I spot this thread which is clearly a not-so-subtle way of getting around your own betting rules.
Given what you have said previously about what age you are, I wonder do you have children and grandchildren? I worry about the increasing amounts of money that could be spent on them - or if not, spent on yourself - that you seem to be flushing away. £300+ a go, is an awful lot of money to be throwing away and you may perhaps try and convince us of how rich you are and that this money is insignificant to you, but I don't think anyone in that position would need to be trying these types of bets in the first place, let alone documenting them on an internet forum. I assume, like the rest of us, that £300 is a fair sum of money to you.
I'll hold my hands up to being a bit of a gambling addict who loses far more than I should but I think I'm aware of my issues and try really hard to learn from my mistakes. Your losses seem to be compounded by a delusion and an arrogance that for some reason you are able to 'beat the system' when sadly the results do not back this belief up in any way.
Again, if any of what I have said is incorrect, then please use it as extra motivation and prove me wrong. I'm not 'trolling' or being abusive, my concerns come from a good place, I don't think concern for someone's financial situation and family can really be construed as trolling or abusive/offensive!
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4 hours ago, waggy said:
Bitter as usual potus. Chill out fella!!
You seem to have that effect on me haha!!
I'm not sure what it is, I think I see a lot of arrogance and dishonesty in you, which are two traits I very much dislike.
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Really lol?!? Have a bit of time off to work out what went wrong and refocus.
Here we go again......
I'll set the overs/unders at 6.5 for on which day Waggy breaks their '8%' betting rule and over/under 3.5 for which day they break their 'one betting post per day' rule. Any takers?
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33 minutes ago, BigMozzyDog said:
4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Pune at 4/5 with Stan James
The Sunrisers Hyderabad are on a serious run, winning their last three games, largely thanks to the efforts of David Warner. Meanwhile their opponents are having a shocker, especially with KP ruled out for the rest of the campaign.
The plight of the Supergiants has been a surprising one, with their bowling standing up to scrutiny, but their batting failing to fire. They have been in promising positions on several occasions, but have struggled to manage the 12-15 an over in the final few to set an imposing total.
Steve Smith is one man Pune might have expected more from. The Aussie skipper, looks set to move up the order to replace Kevin Pietersen at three. The problem is that T20 doesn’t seem to be his natural game, especially on these surfaces.
Somewhat surprising has been the rise to prominence of Ajinkya Rahane, who has probably been the star turn so far. He’s always been a serious player, but this year he has shown an ability to open up with a real threat.
Faf du Plessis has also scored runs, but he must count himself as one of the main culprits for their inability to accelerate. He’s been in at key points and not really produced the big shots in the big moments.
As for Sunrisers, David Warner has been a bit special so far. He’s managed four half-centuries out of five knocks. He’s been in brutal form too, regularly hitting at a strike rate of 150+ from the off.
In many games he has acted as a figurehead, getting the runs needed to get Hyderabad over the line. But in the last game, Shikhar Dhawan came to the party. It’s a great sign for Sunrisers, with Dhawan being a player who possesses all the quality in the world, but has been going through a severe slump in all formats. His 45 in the last game will give him a chance to act as foil for Warner moving forward.
Deepak Hooda, the astoundingly expensive but talented Indian, and Eoin Morgan make up a solid enough middle order. However, their secret weapon has been Mustafizur Rahman. The young Bangladeshi has been an absolute revelation, and is probably one of the best T20 seamers in the world at the moment.
Last time he secured amazing figures of 2 for 9 from four overs. Those are astonishing numbers. Having players who can do that in the later overs is another potential match-winner. They should have enough to beat Pune here.
Full preview: http://punts.pl/G3c4X1
Are you really still seeing value in the match betting markets for this tournament or are you just posting tips for the sake of it?
The tournament has turned into a bit of a lottery and many games have gone completely against the form book or are simply won at the toss rather than on the pitch. Yes, I agree, form and reasonable analysis suggests Sunrisers should win tomorrow but surely odds of 4/5 just look correct rather than particularly good value?
Is it not time to start looking at other markets and accept that this season the match betting market is a lottery and the value if anywhere lies elsewhere? If you don't agree, could you explain why you think there is still value in the match betting markets, as I feel like I've lost a lot of money on the occasions where I've agreed with your match betting tips so far in this tournament. Thanks.
As I said recently in another thread, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
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5 hours ago, waggy said:
End of thread. Not the result I expected but lessons can always be learnt and for me it was an interesting experience. I know where I went wrong and if I do another one the same mistakes will not be made. I will study the thread for a couple of days and try to come back with improvements. Thanks for all your input guys.
You said at the start that this was your last ever thread?!?
I think this has been one of the major problems I've had with your thread, nothing you say seems to mean anything. For me honesty is a very important trait yet you consistently say one thing and then go on to do the opposite.
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3 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
I think the bookies always win in long run but my problem is bank roll control I always up the stakes when I start winning then come a cropper the only thing that let waggy down regular to me was the big bets on horses at dodgy meetings like the one last week at hexham other than that he did ok on the footy cricket etc .
Yeah horses and I think the 'over 1.5 goals' market that Waggy was also obsessed with. I can't believe a market like that would be profitable in the long run but it would be interesting to know how much was won/lost from that market in this thread.
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Yes, £1600ish on Crystal Palace plus one goal, take the money and run. Not sure why you added Newcastle in the first place if you're not confident enough to let it ride? It will cost you a percentage of your profits in having bet on it and then backed out.
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13 minutes ago, JdsGooner90 said:
All relying on Allen comeback by looks of things
..... which isn't going to happen.
And that, as they say, was that.
I'm not sure what we've learned from this thread really. I can't tell without trekking through months worth of posts if Waggy had the potential to make money but self-destructed through poor bankroll management and obsessions with certain types of bets which weren't profitable in this thread or whether the thread just shows that the bookies will always prevail in the long run due to the profit margins they build into the odds they offer.
The early months of this thread seemed to suggest profit was possible but maybe that was just a lucky run. What do the rest of you think? Inevitable win for the bookies or a win caused by self-destruction?
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The end is very near......
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1 hour ago, waggy said:
Watch me win £100 potus quick time
Well, yes, a lot of the time you will win £100, but as this thread has shown, it isn't really a long term profitable play to be betting on over 1.5 goals at fairly short odds. 0-0 or 1-0 either way are very common football scores, I wouldn't want to be against all three at odds of around 2/9.
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4 minutes ago, waggy said:
£450 Adelaide v Melbourne City Over 1.5 goals @2/9 (Australian A League 10.35)
Seriously?
Risk vs. reward and all that.
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Wanderer, you are absolutely on fire with your tips. You are making what has become an awkward tournament to bet on look rather easy. Keep it up, you have been a breath of fresh air to this forum, thanks.
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19 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
TheBeast makes a good point actually. If some sites are offering -3 games as a two-way handicap and some are offering it as a three-way handicap, then you would be better specifying which it is that you are tipping so as not to cause confusion.
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What's that phrase..... 'Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.' By what you have been saying, you have been making the same mistakes for 50 years!
You blew any remaining profits you had last night and you're back less than 24 hours later with the same 'Over 1.5 goals' bets that cost you last time. You seem to have an obsession with that market when there are hundreds to choose from on every match.
Also, there seems to be no willingness to learn or realisation that this thread is going rapidly in one direction. There just seems to be an arrogance and a belief that you are guaranteed to make profit, without any attempts to correct errors or learn and improve from mistakes.
I think other posters are being very soft on you and for some reason massaging your ego with loads of 'good luck' and 'unlucky' posts. This is only making matters worse, I think you need a bit more honesty and told what a farce this thread has become and that you need to make big changes if you want to turn things around.
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9 hours ago, Wanderer89 said:
In this 20 over format the games are so tight that I tend to stay away from the outright match betting. Like yesterday Bangalore were such poor odds so I looked to the 6s market. Coral had a market Bangalore to score over 6.5 sixes at 4/6. Low odds , yes, but they have such big hitters in their team I thought they could smash this even Gayle alone could manage it. Gayle didn't even score a run and it still crossed the line.
Today skybet are offering 10/11 for under 11.5 sixes. Both of these teams have struggled so far in this tournament. The sunrisers last home match didn't cover the line as they struggled to to get to a poor 142. Yes, in the first match they were chasing a huge total of 227 against Bangalore so had no choice but to go for big hits. Mumbai have yet to cover this line so far this tournament and although the sunrisers have big hitter Morgan I just can't see this having more than 11 sixes, I think it will edgey as both teams could really do with a win.
Excellent tip. Even with a donkey three balls of bowling gifting three sixes, the bet was still comfortable. Really good stuff, thank you.
Keep it up, this forum needs more tips like this.
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5 hours ago, Wanderer89 said:
In this 20 over format the games are so tight that I tend to stay away from the outright match betting. Like yesterday Bangalore were such poor odds so I looked to the 6s market. Coral had a market Bangalore to score over 6.5 sixes at 4/6. Low odds , yes, but they have such big hitters in their team I thought they could smash this even Gayle alone could manage it. Gayle didn't even score a run and it still crossed the line.
Today skybet are offering 10/11 for under 11.5 sixes. Both of these teams have struggled so far in this tournament. The sunrisers last home match didn't cover the line as they struggled to to get to a poor 142. Yes, in the first match they were chasing a huge total of 227 against Bangalore so had no choice but to go for big hits. Mumbai have yet to cover this line so far this tournament and although the sunrisers have big hitter Morgan I just can't see this having more than 11 sixes, I think it will edgey as both teams could really do with a win.
Top tip I think until someone manages to concede four sixes in an over. How is that possible? Even the good tips aren't winning at the moment, might be time to leave this tournament be for a bit.
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Wow, I didn't see that coming.
I think, close the thread now. What an absolute farce it has become and miles away from what you set out to achieve.
I think you may have flicked a bit of a switch for me though. My betting is exactly the same as yours and I wouldn't like to think I'll still be doing that in 40 years time, so it's time for me to make some big changes!
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43 minutes ago, BigMozzyDog said:
Potus, I have a dislike of the handicap markets in the T20 format - games get tight and I prefer to avoid them. As I said, the best price available in the outright market was the one that was quoted, because that's what my tip was based on. Talking about a different market is erroneous, at best.
It isn't erroneous though because 4/5 with a handicap obviously beats 8/11 for the outright win. (Better price AND more chance of winning.) Read my previous post, I'm not debating handicap versus outright win, I'm pointing out that sometimes there is inconsistent extra value in the handicap markets which we need to look out for.
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34 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:
His time is up.
And yours?
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Waggy, you're at it mate.
Your betting is exactly the same as mine, steady progress, some decent wins, followed by ridiculous chasing of losses with no control or discipline whatsoever. I have no idea how this thread is in profit, because I'm certainly not.
IPL 2016
in Cricket Predictions
Posted
Ok, when you give your yield since 1st April, I may be wrong but that looks suspiciously like selective statistics to me. Could you give us your yield on IPL match winner bets for this season please because I can't believe that you or anybody else could have made a profit this season on that particular market. The last two days were yet more lottery fodder, with chases coming down to the last ball and there being no indication whatsoever even after 239 balls out of a 240 ball match as to whether the run chase would be successful or not and which way the match would go.
The thing is, it's such a short tournament, with only 8 teams that you have to be able to react quickly to any trends and adjust your betting accordingly, there simply isn't time to rest on your laurels and be too stubborn to change your betting patterns. An obvious trend here is the unpredictability of the match markets - further highlighted by teams at the bottom of the table with positive run rates and teams at the top with negative run rates - so we have to react quickly by making an adjustment to our betting. I don't see any adjustment from you, you're still trying to pick logical match winners which isn't relevant at all against a lottery market.