potus
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Posts posted by potus
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A bad day betting-wise for most of us I reckon, thanks to sub-standard batting displays from the favourites.
Chris Gayle, I just don't know what to make of you. One game out of ten you can win on your own but does that make up for the other nine games out of ten? I'm not sure it does.
How do teams decide where to play these players in their batting line-up? What makes Gayle an opener and MS Dhoni bat at five or six for example? They look similar players to me and I'm beginning to think Gayle would be better suited further down. The powerplay is more about scoring fours and rotating strike which Gayle doesn't do very well. The same with Gayle/Kohli/De Villiers/Watson, what dictates the order there?
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2 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:
Yes, I certainly do. At the time of the preview, these were the best odds, as ever. If you have a far better price than this, I'm sure it is either your error or the bookies'. You're welcome to share it, but there must be the caveat that the price is abnormally large and may result in a voided bet.
Bet365 had Pune at +6.5 runs/2.5 wickets at 4/5 on the handicaps but they emailed me later to say it was an error. I'd have hoped you might have spotted this price.
Horrible batting display from Pune and their total looks well short. Likely to cost me and many other people a lot of money.
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5 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:
4pts Rising Pune Supergiants to win at 8/11 with Coral
So far in this edition of the IPL, the change of captaincy to David Miller from George Bailey has nothing to improve the fortunes of one of the competition’s worst sides. In short, Kings XI Punjab have been dreadful.
Scores of 111 and 98 have seen Punjab easily defeated in the two opening games, and if they are to stop the rot here, they will need runs from their overseas stars, Miller and Maxwell. At the top of the order Murali Vijay is an experienced performer, while Manan Vohra has shown ability, but their big names have failed badly.
Both Maxwell and Miller are known to be hit and miss, with both capable of special things every so often. They are good players, but you need great performances to do well in a competition that’s this competitive.
Shaun Marsh made his comeback last time to further boost the Punjab middle-order, but made no runs. They need more from these players, and even then, look light on proven match-winning ability.
As for Pune, they have been nearly perfect for 32 overs with the bat. They won the first game at a canter, and at 100/1 in the 12th with KP and Faf at the crease in the second against the Lions, looked to be well in charge.
After their catastrophic finish against Gujarat, they will be keen to put those wrongs right. They have the players, and have the coaching set-up to do really well in this competition.
They have assembled a very useful squad. One that has everything to challenge. They have the leadership of the one and only MS Dhoni for a start. A two time winner of this competition and a man who has guided his country to the T20 World Cup.
Aside from a whole heap of quality domestic players, including Ashwin, Rahane and Ishant, they have sublime overseas. Yes there is Proteas skipper, Faf du Plessis who has had the Orange Helmet for while, and Kevin Pietersen.
Ajinkya Rahane has been great at the top of the order, while Steve Smith is yet to make a mark, but has undoubted quality. MS DHoni at five and Mitchell Marsh at six makes this one of the most dangerous line-ups in the IPL.
They have been strong with the ball too, with the Ashwin’s in good nick, and Ishant Sharma looking a real threat. They should have more than enough here.Full preview: http://punts.pl/OHjtA4
Do you compare the odds across lots of different sites? I have found a far better price for this match but I'm a bit scared to draw attention to it in case it is a mistake and they void my bet. Any thoughts with regards to sharing it here? I'm a bit disappointed you missed it in the first place to be honest.
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The line for sixes is set at 9.5 for the next two matches. Again, that seems an incredibly low number for IPL matches. Has something changed that I'm missing because these seem too good to be true.
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Today looks far too close to call, although in general I would tend to bet against Brendon McCullum who is a bit of a liability at the top of the order.
The best bet looks to be 12 or more sixes which is a line that has surely been set far too low.
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15 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Back Gael Monfils (-3.5) to beat Jiri Vesely for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power
Back Rafael Nadal (-3.5) to beat Dominic Thiem for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power
A big result for Vesely today, but I don't think that he'll be able to follow it up by beating Monfils, who looked very strong against Lorenzi. Chances are that the Czech won't really turn up anyway. Apart from that, I also fancy Nadal to get his revenge for the Buenos Aires loss. Thiem is carrying an injury at the moment, beating Struff and Daniel on fighting spirit alone, but Nadal should be way too strong.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/V0bm3G
I'm trusting you on the Thiem injury comment here. If that's the case then the bet is good, if not then there is no way we should be betting on Rafa at such short odds. I hope your reading of the situation is correct.
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Surprisingly good odds on Kolkata today - 8/11 at Bet365 - and if you take them with a slight handicap of 1.5 wickets/2.5 runs you can even get 10/11. They nearly always win at home and Mumbai Indians nearly always start the season badly and don't look that great a team anyway.
Obviously anything can happen in a T20 match but the chances of Kolkata winning here are high enough to make the 10/11 a very profitable bet in the long run.
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56 minutes ago, waggy said:
Results: Willett 67, Westwood 69, WON £300 ~ Leicester City won 2-0, WON £60 ~ Aussie Valentine 3rd, LOST £160 ~ Total won £200
Profit to date £2510.50
In answer to your post potus the reason I have decided to have no aim or rules to this thread is to put a stop to people like you who's whole purpose in life is to be negative regarding other peoples efforts. I have always done things my own way, rightly or wrongly, and have found that by reading your comments I have have let the negativity get to me. From now on the only object is to win money for myself and do it my way. The profit I have made up to now is not bad, and I emphasise PROFIT. I agree with skittle that it would be good if you would do a thread of your own, but being such a negative person I expect you don't think you would be much good at it.
I am being honest, that's all. Nothing I have said has been untrue or unfair.
Sadly I lose a lot of money on betting so I'm not sure what part of that process you and Skittle want me to write up on here or what you think the benefit of that would be?
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1 hour ago, waggy said:
Ok guys I have made my final change to the opening post. I never asked for respect so with a thread with no rules and no aims I will get back to simply enjoying posting a few bets and making a bit of money.
You're in the 'Glory Hunters' forum. I thought the whole point of that was to have some specific Glory Hunt to work towards? I thought you were trying to make £10,000 profit in two years?
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I'm sure most people would agree that you lose a lot of respect when you edit a 'rule' into your opening post in terms of bankroll management and then break that rule a few days later.
I fully expect you'll have some excuse to try and justify it but let's be honest here, you didn't have any exceptions written in to your rule so it's a bit ridiculous to try and come up with some to justify yet more bad bankroll management.
(The fact the bet won is completely irrelevant in this discussion.)
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Thanks to the other posters for backing me up there - I thought I was going mad for a minute.
I did fail statistics at university but I didn't think my understanding of statistics was that bad! Most basic statistics is just simple logic anyway.
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1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:
Have a look at the results in the 13/14 season. Up until the last seven weeks the number of home wins was on course for about 48%. Then it righted itself with only 25 home wins out of 74 games - roughly 3 a week. Final tally was 44%.
One of the basics I remember from studying statistics is that what happens next is not influenced by what happened before. So, if we were going to toss a coin a hundred times and after eighty of them we had already hit our expected value of 50 heads, you can't say 'Hardly any of the next twenty will be heads, because it has to even out back towards its expected value.' That's incorrect logic and the next twenty you would still expect ten heads.
I understand football is slightly different as it is not a random event like tossing a coin, but the same principles and logic apply. If your expected value is 45% home wins then that is what you expect to happen in the last 6-7 weeks of the season NOT a much larger number to bring the whole season back in line with the 45% figure.
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Surely it's about liking profits, whatever the price may be.
If you think something like 10/11 - or whatever it would have been - is a 'short price' then you are going to miss out on a lot of potential profit.
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On 5 April 2016 at 15:24:19, andrewcalo said:
This article helps explain the slow start at the beginning of the season ... we should see a lot more home wins now to make up for the lack of team cohesion at the start of the season, and the skills learnt this season re: playing possession-based football.
p.s. As a final caveat, managed to find out home wins, draws and away wins for 11/12 - results support the above lol:
H 171 45%
D 93 25%
A 116 31%
I'm sorry but I still see this as an incredibly poor understanding of statistics on your part.
This season has been truly bizarre by all accounts and possible measures. I mean, for one, Leicester City are on the verge of winning the league. If something that inconceivable can happen, then surely it's far more plausible to believe that the number of home wins in the season can deviate from its usual around 45%, down to around 40%.
You seem to suggest that because home wins have been around 45% for five years that they will definitely find a way of reaching that exact level again by the end of this season but that's not necessarily the case at all.
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3 hours ago, Fader said:
and there it is again... 6-5 up.. SIX DARTS to get a double... draw.. just shocking
Short format, 'draw no bet' is your friend here.
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1 hour ago, potus said:
A horrible final over of batting from Australia Women but a great batting display other than that, 148 should be more than enough.
No, no, no, no, NO. Australia what have you done?
I was all over the 4/9 on Australia because it was a gift of a price and they've made a complete disaster of it.
Their final batting over scoring only one looks to be a crucial error but to be honest, their bowling display was that bad that they may have still lost even with a proper final over of batting.
Once again I've lost huge sums of money and what a disaster of a World T20 tournament I've had.
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A horrible final over of batting from Australia Women but a great batting display other than that, 148 should be more than enough.
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5 hours ago, andrewcalo said:
I studied fractogoly. The statistical likelihood of three home wins or less at this stage in the season is 9 to 1.
I find that stat very hard to believe. Can you explain how you arrived at that please?
What is 'fractology?'
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4 hours ago, Fader said:
Agree, West Indies are great value, whether they win or not. Interesting, though that much like the England game yesterday, these two played in a warm-up friendly and India won. Sharma though, on that day was outstanding.
5pts Over 15.5 sixes in the match 4/5 Skybet
2pts Windies to win and get the most Sixes 11/4 Skybet
2pts Sharma top batsman India 11/4 SkybetI'm taking a bigger price Windies to win with the highest sixes. Aswell as there to be over 15 of them. On this ground there have been 19 & 22 in the last two matches so with the depth of batting you'd expect something similar. Sharma got a big score when these played there friendly and he has to come good one day so I'm going to chance him being there top batsman today. I'll also be looking at Pandya/Bumrah as top bowlers for India.
I followed you quite big on the sixes bet but that hasn't got going at all.
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Why are India such big favourites?
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Yeah, cracking prices on New Zealand in both the men's and women's tournaments.
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51 minutes ago, Fader said:
Potus, final overs of a Twenty20 and the womens event (with some massive variances of talent) ... you're trying to bet on sure things yet you're betting on that? you couldn't get more random if you lumped on tails on a coin toss. Just seems to me you're looking at the first thing you see and lumping on it before the market changes.
Why are you not following the tips here that have been in profit over the past week? I appreciate you're trying to improve, but if you want to improve you have to put the time in to study. Did you know the pitch conditions? who was left to bat? there form? the bowlers left? the bowlers overs used? the importance of a win for sri lanka? the important of the other team? there is so much information to make your bet more likely to win.
Obviously I put in some analysis and research before I placed the bet. If I was just betting for the sake of it, I would bet on a coin toss as you said. I had a look at the in-running bets and that seemed around 20 runs short of where I thought it should be. They were scoring nearly 7 an over, finding plenty of boundaries. Fair enough they had just lost a wicket but they had another player out there who was on a decent score, even if she went I would still fancy 5 runs an over with all those wickets in hand a very easy ask.
Yesterday you told me to read the pitch. Well, I read the number of boundaries being scored here and 89 after 13 overs to be a very decent score in the circumstances. I don't see what analysis I missed that would explain there not being 38 more runs scored in the final 7 overs?
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Sorry to have to bore you all with another sob story but I'm trying to learn from people who know better than me and improve my cricket betting. I'm losing so much of my money on this sport and it's really getting to me as I'm only betting on what I think are great bets but they keep going wrong.
This morning, Sri Lanka women have just lost their third wicket and are 89/3 after 13 overs. Bet365 set their total runs at over/under 126.5. I think that is a complete gift, a side that have scored 89 in 78 balls to score 38 in the final 42, with seven wickets in hand? Surely that line is far too low?
Anyway, I lump on and they finish on 123. Thoughts? Not wise-after-the-event thoughts, but how you would have analysed that bet at the time? Thanks.
IPL 2016
in Cricket Predictions
Posted
Why would it only be available momentarily?
I was about to bet on Pune to win the match at 4/6 and then I noticed that +6.5 runs/2.5 wickets they were 4/5. That's obviously a much better deal, so I went for that and I wondered why you didn't spot it. I know the obvious response is 'that price has to be an error because how can they be longer odds to win with the handicap' BUT all week the same thing has been happening on Bet365. It's like the match odds fluctuate about a bit - and most T20 matches are close to 50/50 anyway in terms of odds - but the handicap odds don't change so sometimes you get incosistencies in the odds and situations like I've described which don't make sense and you're getting a better deal betting on the handicaps.
It's one of those frustrating situations where the rules are stacked completely unfairly in favour of the bookies. If we make a mistake in out betting, we have no get-out clause yet bookies can just void bets when they make a mistake and go 'oh, we didn't mean that.' It's totally counter-intuitive as well to spend your life looking for bets which offer value but then be expected to go 'oh that one is TOO much value, so that must be a mistake.' I have no idea where to draw the line between value and 'too good to be true' and the fact bookies can void bets or even worse change the odds of bets which fall into the latter category makes things doubly difficult as I tend to lump on a good price when I see one.