potus
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Posts posted by potus
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Wow, this tournament looks like a gift so far for betting on so let's work together to maximise that gift!
Top level football is dominated by defence at the best of times. However the new format for this tournament - which corresponds to an old World Cup format - whereby most of the teams who finish in third place in the groups will progress to the knockout stages seems to have only magnified the defensive nature of football. Teams here have little to gain and everything to lose by attacking and trying to win games and given that three 0-0 draws would more than likely be enough to progress to the knockout stages, it is leading to some predictably cagey affairs.
So far we have seen:
Only 22 goals in 12 games, which is obviously well under 2 goals per game.
Every single game went under 3.5 goals.
The last 9 games in a row have gone under 2.5 goals.
No team scored more than 2 goals in their opening game.
Only 5 teams (out of 24) scored more than 1 goal in their opening game.
However, amazingly given how low-scoring things were in total, there were no 0-0 draws in the first round of games.
Infact, there were only four different scorelines which cropped up in the opening round of games, which were 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 1-1.
So, I have been taking advantage of this as best I can. For recent matches, I have been placing five bets each time: A little bit on 'under 0.5 goals,' a bit more on 'under 1.5 goals,' yet more on 'under 2.5 goals,' even more on 'under 3.5 goals' and lumping on 'under 4.5 goals.' Make sense?
Is this the most profitable way I can take advantage or can you see a better way? I think I have been unlucky in that there haven't been any 0-0 scorelines - which I see as merely an anomaly, unless people think otherwise? - so that has cost me a fair bit of potential profit.
Would love to hear a more informed opinion on how to maximise profit on a trend like this because it shouldn't end any time soon.
(I should add, I am intending on being wary of France - Albania and Germany - Northern Ireland, by far the biggest potential mismatches of the tournament.)
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3 hours ago, four-leaf said:
Dimitrovs girlfriend Sharapovas career went down so it's going worse and worse for himself. Maybe a reason why.
Isn't his girlfriend Nicole Scherzinger? Sharapova was a long time ago.
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How is Grigor Dimitrov such a car crash these days? What on earth has gone wrong there?
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Surely Belgium - Italy is one of the easiest 'correct score 0-0' bets for a long time. 11/2 on Bet365, maybe better if you shop around. Go make some money!
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Poland clean sheet is a great bet, to win with a clean sheet if you're feeling bold.
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So far, so very crazy.
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7 hours ago, owenclass said:
Some special bets for the rest of the tourament
Final Forecast
Djokovic to beat Wawrinka in the final 7/4 sky bet
Final Setcast
Djokovic to beat Murray in the final 3-1 7/1 sky bet
Djokovic to beat Wawrinka 3-1 7/1 sky bet
Serena to beat Muguruza 2-1 9/2 sky bet
Well i think Djokovic will reach the final and he will play either Murray or Wawrinka. I do fancy a Serena Muguruza final and maybe Serena to come out on top
I don't see how you think those 7/1 and 9/2 bets represent good value? If you just waited until the final would you not get better odds than 3/1 on Djokovic winning 3-1 anyway?
I can't believe SkyBet have priced those up so short and they must be laughing all the way to the bank if people are actually betting them. Am I missing something here?
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I think we have to leave the betting alone with the weather the way it is, surely it's turning things into far too much of a lottery to be betting on.
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The boundaries tip looks a great one, although I would be wary of describing Chris Gayle as being in form, I believe he scored 1 run in his last match? 90% of the time the guy is a liability and he is definitely the most overrated player out there. It's probably only because they have De Villiers coming in at 3 that Bangalore can afford to carry Gayle because I think for most teams he would be a luxury they couldn't afford to risk. I think he needs to find a new role as a finisher.
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1 hour ago, delfino said:
Seems that Roland Garros is Nemesis for Djokovic. Last year the name was WAW, this year Murray indeed looks as the perfect candidate to play the role of the Nemesis against Djoko.....Plus WAW, for me at least.....I never exclude WAW from big events.....lets see....And Kyrgios probably? The young Australian look enormous from time to time.......
I advice any Djoko backer on outright market to cover the investment on the two main Nemesis candidates Murray and WAW.
thnx
There's surely not much money to be made by covering Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka?
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4 hours ago, Skittle said:
Last time you were told by the 'boss', Paul Ross { who incidently is the owner of this site } to basically shut up or get lost.................or have you forgotten.
No I've not forgotten, in fact I've been pretty much silent since then because I'm scared to post as I don't know what I'm allowed to say or what will get me in trouble!
However, seeing somebody state one thing... 'I will do this' and then go and do the opposite and challenging them on that, I'm hoping and assuming isn't unfair behaviour or going to get me into trouble. If it is, then I really am completely lost as to what is and isn't allowed to be said on this site. Sorry for the continued disruption this seems to be causing but as mentioned previously, honesty and openness are important here.
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3 minutes ago, waggy said:
April 26th, page 1 post Potus (not personal?). Of course it is. Gambling away grandchilds inheritance (not personal?. You know it is. You've already said as much when you say I have an adverse effect on you, April 26th. Criticise all you like, but keep it fair.
I was fair on this occasion wasn't I? (That's not me saying I was unfair in the past, just saying I don't remember!)
On this occasion, you stated betting restrictions, broke them and I pointed them out. That is fair yeah? It's not personal.
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31 minutes ago, waggy said:
Tennis bet was a late selection Potus so had no time to put the rest up before it started. The 8% rule with the previous tennis bet was only broken by £1.20 just to round it to £120 instead of £118.80. Once again you are being personal. To call me dishonest is ridiculous and rather insulting. The fact that you find great pleasure in finding fault is not a problem for me, but what is unpleasant is your below the belt insults about me personally. Misleading, dishonest, gambling grandchildrens inheritance, etc are just a few of the comments you have made. If you make one more personal comment about me I will have to give up posting on this site. By all means point out faults, but do it without getting personal.
I don't think that is getting personal is it?
If you write 'I am going to do this......' and then you do the opposite then how is that not misleading and dishonest? That isn't a personal comment, that's just stating a fact.
(As in, I didn't say 'you are a misleading and dishonest person,' I said your actions here were misleading and dishonest. One is a personal comment, the other is a statement of fact. That's unfair to me to try and claim it's a personal comment because I can get in trouble for that if others assume it's true without looking for themselves. I also stated it as constructive criticism by saying you are doing really well when sticking to your rules so don't mess things up by getting carried away and going against them.)
I have re-read my post just to be sure and it certainly doesn't contain any personal comments. I think people on here should be happy to accept constructive criticism, that is far more useful to them in the long run than simply having other posters fawning over them and telling them how great they are. Please don't ignore that constructive criticism by thinking or claiming it is some sort of personal attack. All I did in this case was stated the facts.
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On 30 April 2016 at 13:36:54, waggy said:
Starting with £1500 the thread will have a £300 level stake on only ONE BET on any day. All sports will be covered. Some days no selection will be posted. The thread will be for one year only and be mostly short priced selections. Bets will usually be posted before noon but on occasions will be later. The aim, as usual will be just to make a profit. As you will know by now I like to have a big bet now and again and this thread is what this is all about.
Same here as in your other thread, 'only one bet on any day.' You've even put it in capital letters. What is the point if you don't stick to it?
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On 26 April 2016 at 10:50:17, waggy said:
The aim of this thread is for me to be able to buy a new car within 18 months with this new thread. The starting bank will be £1000 and the daily wager will be no more than 8% of the bank. Bets will be on any sports and will be limited to singles, doubles or trebles. There will be only one betting post per day, usually before noon. Most bets will on short price selections.
Woah, go back to your very first post please Waggy. One betting post per day and no more than 8% of the bank will bet per day. You have broken both of those rules within 24 hours.
It's your thread, so you can impose whatever rules you like but there's no point in stating specific rules for yourself if you're not going to stick to them. That's just misleading and dishonest.
Also, your bankroll is going along nicely while you follow these rules, so they are obviously working. No reason to mess that up now by getting greedy.
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2 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:
I provided the stats above based on the detailed records we keep after every betting preview, so if I have missed a couple of my tips from the forum, I do apologise. I'll be more careful in future. In answer to your question, yes, my outright betting is now slightly in negative, though the player markets seems to be a real source of profit - David Warner popped up as a top batter at 4/1 the other day.
We have a tool here on the PL website that logs the bets and stakes of all our previewed bets, so I'm assuming my stats are correct. But as you've queried them, I'll double check.
The fact remains that their is profit to be had on the IPL, it's just more challenging this year.
I think we were discussing the match betting market though, weren't we? Yeah, you probably need to check your stats because they look a bit off.
Also, I notice you say 'we' instead of 'I' a lot in your previews. Who are the 'we' you are referring to?
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:
Back Novak Djokovic to beat Kei Nishikori for a 5/10 stake at 1.51 with Unibet
Just this interest punt for me tomorrow, Nishikori was a bit off against Thiem and also needed a medical time-out, so, given that he has an awful record against Djokovic this year, chances are that this will be just one of those routine wins for the Serb.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/SlPecc
Is that meant to say 1.15 or what? I was reading it thinking, 'surely that can't be the price' and checked Bet365 where Djokovic is 1/7, so something isn't correct here.
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48 minutes ago, janekda said:
I am carefull to say "somebody has no game to beat other". I saw so many matches which was won by player without any weapons
I don't bet on Nadal because I don't know how influenced long match with Kyrgios on his fitness. In Monace after long match with Murray Nadal won in another long match with Monfils. So maybe it doesn't influence. But the odd is tempting, The King of clay with 3.35 ...
You mean 'The King of Clay' 2005-2014?
The King is dead, long live the King (Djokovic.)
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Just to add BigMozzyDog, you stated your match betting results as +1.60. I've done the calculation to that point and got you on -5.98, which becomes -9.98 after yesterday's tip.
I'm not sure where the discrepancy comes from. There were a couple of occasions where you gave a match betting tip but didn't state the number of points you were betting on it so maybe it is that?
In fact, looking now at the matches where you forgot to state how many points you were betting..... you had a win at 8/15 and a win at 4/7 and a loss at 8/11. Going by your usual stakes of either 4 or 5 points, the best case scenario for you would give you a profit of 1.52 between these 3 matches - and that's probably being slightly generous - but that still takes you to a total loss of 8.46 which is some way off what you claimed. Why are we getting different figures here?
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On 11 May 2016 at 19:39:26, BigMozzyDog said:
Ok, of the four main bet types I've employed so far, my stats are as follows:
Win/lose market: +1.60 pts
Top batter/bowler market: +99.92 pts
Sixes lines: -1.40 pts
Opening partnerships: +5pts
Nb, my top player winnings are skewed due to a couple of large wins.
So, I except your point about the nature of this year's IPL, especially on the basis on the net run rates you mention. That said, even if I'm only making a small profit in a competition where it has been a little unpredictable, I'm happy to continue picking what I see to be the best value. We clearly disagree on strategy, which is cool, but I'd be intrigued to know how you go about betting on limited overs cricket in general.
As you can see above, I have tipped in other markets with some success, but only when they have made cricketing sense.
Wow, if those stats are correct then I owe you an apology. I didn't think anyone could be making money on this season's IPL match markets but you seem to have managed it - although I assume yesterday's result has taken you slightly back into the negative?
You asked how I go about betting on limited-overs cricket. I'm not saying the T20 match market is NEVER a good bet, normally it is fine - although waiting for in-running match betting is a far better option as there is always a slight lottery element.
However, something is different in this season's IPL. Logic, form, predictability etc etc have completely vanished. Teams who are on a roll are losing to teams who can't play. There are no formidable home records. High scoring, six hitting and standard chases have all vanished. Teams are scoring high scores without many sixes and then the next game low scores with loads of sixes. What was a batting-dominated league is this season from nowhere bowling-dominated. We have teams at the top with negative run rates and at the bottom with positive. We have players like Chris Gayle who one game in ten can win the match on his own and is the unplayable best player on the planet but the other nine games out of ten doesn't make double figures. Players like Shane Watson whose batting and bowling can go from a dream one day to a car crash the next with no indication of which one it will be.
I could go on and on with these types of examples but the key point is that this season's IPL has become a total lottery. There is no form or logic or reasoning which holds up when trying to place match bets. I appreciate we can still write previews and go 'here is the apparent form or logic' but the reality is that that form/logic isn't holding up and each game itself is like a new start and a lottery as to who wins, so to use form/logic as the basis for betting tips is not an intelligent move THIS SEASON.
Maybe things will return to a more 'normal,' logical situation next season or later this season but you have to be able to see where we're at just now and adjust accordingly? I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is and say that - certainly so far this IPL - and probably for the rest of the tournament as well you could make more money by tossing a coin to pick the match winner than you could by using logic or reasoning. Could be an interesting challenge if you fancy it?
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11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Back Rafael Nadal to beat Novak Djokovic for a 5/10 stake at 3.35 with 10bet
I'm essentially at 4.00 on Nishikori to beat Thiem tomorrow, so I'll be adding just this one into the mix for smaller stakes. Perhaps I'm going crazy, but Nadal has been the better player of the two so far in Rome, so I certainly wouldn't be having him above the 3.00 mark here. Djokovic can turn it on, of course, but 3.35? Nah.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/cNYGVZ
'Djokovic can turn it on' may be the biggest understatement in the history of this forum. Nadal doesn't have the game to beat Djokovic, you'd be needing odds closer to double 3.35 to be getting near to being value. 1.3 on Djokovic is where the value lies today.
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On 2 May 2016 at 03:47:43, janesill said:
I will still be cheering for team England in the upcoming euro 2016 but it seems as though Team Germany is the smarter pick. My favorite team is England but I would put my money on Germany. We can't let emotions get in the way.
Do you mean you are English?
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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Agreed, but perhaps that's a good thing, as we now have a nice contrast between the two tours. I mean - there are only like six players that could possibly win on the men's side I guess, while the number of WTA candidates is much higher. Depending on how she does in the rest of this week, I can even see Gavrilova going far, she certainly has the game and talent.
I posted the same point on a different thread about a different sport the other day. Sports need to find the balance between being predictable/boring and a free-for-all/lottery. Women's tennis is falling far too far into the latter category at the moment, delfino is correct. I don't know the solution but it is a bit of a problem.
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Come off it Heather Watson....... for an experienced player who is ranked 55 in the world to go from 4-0 up in a set to losing the set 6-4 is a total disgrace. Unless there was an injury involved or some circumstances which I don't know about, then that is an absolute nonsense performance. I can't legislate for that kind of display when I'm placing a bet. Not happy at all.
I've seen her quoted recently as wanting to push hard to qualify for the Olympics, well after those six games you lost from 4-0 up, you don't deserve to be anywhere near the Olympics.
Euro 2016 > June 10th - 16th
in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions
Posted
There were two matches which produced more than 2 goals.