potus
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Posts posted by potus
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Very in-depth preview, thanks for that. I think you may be over-estimating the West Indies somewhat though.
I feel the West Indies along with Pakistan and England have a good game in them once every four matches but that's just not consistent enough to compete over a whole tournament against the likes of Australia, India, New Zealand and South Africa, who have a good game three times out of every four matches.
One of the first cricket matches I ever saw was Chris Gayle's famous record-breaking IPL innings - in 2013 if I remember correctly - but I haven't seen him perform to any sort of a level for a long time. I don't really see why he's an opener, surely someone with his power fits the bill of a Maxwell/Buttler/Dhoni etc etc who comes in much further down the order to smash the sixes? I don't think that he has the game to build a score with singles and fours.
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It's a complete insult to Bangladesh to make them go through this qualifying group. They are a better team than England, Pakistan, West Indies and probably a transitional Sri Lanka, yet they could easily lose one of their three qualifying matches and not even make the tournament proper. Along with the uneven group draws I mentioned in my previous post, I think the tournament set-up is really poor.
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On 06/03/2016, 14:57:43, Skittle said:
I'm sorry Waggy, but the word 'chasing' comes to mind here.
I'm glad somebody else has said this also - I was beginning to think I was going mad as I was the only person who seemed to be making that point.
What's the game plan going forward then Waggy? How are you going to change the direction of your bankroll in this thread?
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I'm not sure what system they used to draw the two groups but it definitely needs to be looked at with a view to being changed.
Australia, India, New Zealand and presumably Bangladesh all in the same group, along with Pakistan. Then you have South Africa and....... nobody in the other group. Bizarre.
I think it does make what could potentially have been a betting minefield a lot easier though. Go big on the tournament outrights on India and South Africa and watch the cash roll in.
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3 hours ago, four-leaf said:
I hope you are wrong to leave Murray/Nishikori alone. Nishikori has'nt played very well at all lately. And why is it not a good decision to place Murray ahead of Inglot? Murray/Murray played before in DC doubles so why not again? Andy went ahead of Inglot in the DC final.
It looked an easy win for Great Britain so it was a great chance to give Dom Inglot some more Davis Cup experience to prepare him should he be needed in more difficult matches in future.
There's no reason for Andy Murray to play all three days unless he has to. Pretty disrespectful to Inglot who is a doubles specialist.
On the other hand though, Leon Smith has worked wonders with this team so who are any of us to criticise.
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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Back Mikhail Kukushkin (+2.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 5/10 stake at 5.10 with Unibet
Back Andy Murray (-4.5) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 7/10 stake at 1.74 with Unibet
Back Borna Coric (-5.5) to beat Kimmer Coppejans for a 7/10 stake at 1.91 with Unibet
The Murray and Coric bets look straightforward enough, but I also fancy Kukushkin to win a set at odds this massive. Djokovic looked rather poor on Saturday, while Kukushkin has taken sets off the big guys in the past and will play his heart out. Djokovic to win in the end, but the odds for the set handicap are just too big for me to ignore them.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/davis-cup-r1-day-three-tips-france-and-italy-advance-the-rest-fights-on-2016030503
I still cannot believe that Andy Murray played ahead of Dom Inglot on Saturday, I don't see that as a good decision at all for several reasons.
Also 2/7 on Murray to beat Nishikori wouldn't look tempting at the best of times but certainly not when Murray hasn't played an opponent of any note for over a month. I've made a load of money in the past year on Andy Murray in the Davis Cup but this is one occasion to leave well alone. Kei has to have a real shot at an upset here.
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47 minutes ago, Fader said:
Vinci just doing the bare minimum to win. Cheers Vinci.
What's happened there? World-ranked number 153 demolishing number 10? How?
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4 hours ago, Fader said:
4pts N.Kyrgios to beat S.Wawrinka 11/10 Paddypower
Bit surprised by the odds here as Nick is in such good form and looking powerful. He beat Stan last time out they played on this surface too, albeit Stan retired in the third set. Tired is obviously an issue but the dudes only 20. Man up!
4pts M.Baghdatis to beat F.Lopez Evens Skybet
Another odd one. Perhaps the bookies think Lopez slayed Djokovic when really it was an injury? Baghdatis has beaten Lopez in all 3 matches on the hardcourt and the last 2 in straight sets. Last match was 2012 and that's a long time in tennis, however not many people bagel Agut, so he has some form right now. I think Baghdatis will hurt Lopez from the baseline, especially with Lopez second serve.
14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:Back Nick Kyrgios to beat Stanislas Wawrinka for a 7/10 stake at 2.20 with Bet365
Back Marcos Baghdatis to beat Feliciano Lopez for a 7/10 stake at 2.04 with Unibet
Turning into a strange tournament this one, but I'll be taking both underdogs tomorrow. Baghdatis in a good form at the moment and he also has a good record against Lopez from the past, while Kyrgios has looked better than Wawrinka so far this week despite the obvious tiredness. Hoping for a good match and some controversy.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-dubai-day-five-2016022506
4-1 Wawrinka with the double break early on. I'm having an absolute mare this week. I don't follow all the tennis tips on here but every time I have followed one this week it has gone wrong. Looks like I've been sold down the river again today. Must stay away from big name 50/50 matches in future.
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11 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:
Bangladesh vs UAE
There is some value to be had in the UAE top batter market, especially they get routed for a pretty low score.
Usman Mushtaq will stride out at 6/7, and may be in the perfect position to register an innings high score. This could be an enormous price if he walks out at 30/5.
You can back Usman Mushtaq to be top UAE batter at 33/1 with Stan James.
Why is this preview almost word-for-word the same as the one on ESPN CricInfo?
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2 hours ago, waggy said:
Results: Krajinovic lost 2-0, LOST £110 ~ Hull FC lost, LOST £350 ~ Liverpool won, WON £140 ~ Total lost £320
Profit to date £2736.28
Read your other message vikki and the Hull bet did indeed lose.
The game plan from the start potus was to win money. £2736.28 has been won in eight months which is a fair return in my book. Perhaps if you can show us how to do better your posts can be taken seriously. It doesn't matter how you win as long as you win. You keep saying that I'm on the slippery slope but the figures don't back you up. I'm up and down at the moment but that is betting. Watch this space fella and at the end of the two years this thread is going to last maybe you can eat a bit of humble pie.
Hey, absolutely Waggy, if you hit your targets over the 2 years I will be very impressed.
However, the game plan appears to be one of chasing small losses with disproportionately large saver bets and as soon as one or a couple of those go wrong - which hasn't happened yet - I think you'll be on a very fast road to the poor house. Good luck in proving me wrong though.
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5 hours ago, vikki37 said:
Congrats on both wins!
The rugby league bet lost didn't it?!??
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What's your game plan here? It looks like you're all over the shop.
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4 hours ago, SmellTheCoffee said:
That bet365 strategy above is utter rubbish and not true in the slightest.
yes can do it as a 'risk free win' but not like this....and not for those profits.
Utter rubbish.
Those winnings included the stakes. You are aware of that?
You can make roughly a £35 guaranteed profit, as the poster suggested.
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1 hour ago, Fader said:
Week 4 is nearly upon us. Thursday we're in Aberdeen, and with 3 Scots in the league that should mean a great atmosphere. Two of the Scots are up against eachother with Peter Wright taking on Robert Thornton. I see no value in that match really though and if anything Id be looking at Thornton at 4/1 as Wright unfortunately is going to get some bad luck at some point you'd think. Also, we're about half way to the point where the bottom 2 are relegated and so Thornton will be desperate for points.
5pts A.Lewis to beat J.Wade Evens Skybet
Although Wade has a good record against Aidy, last year they played five times and Aidy won 3 of the 5 and only lost once. The last two matches he hasn't lost and that included a draw in the league, and then a 7-4 in the league and between that a 6-0 thrashing. Lewis is looking good so far and Wade, I'm finding is only winning games when his opponent turns to crap. Lewis doesn't do that like he used to.6pts G.Anderson to beat R. Van Barneveld 5/6 Bet365
I would expect a reaction from Gary here, as he needs the points, needs the momentum and we're in Scotland where he will be expected to shine. His record against Raymond isn't that great in the Premier League surprisingly, only winning 2 of the last 10 premier league fixtures believe it or not. But, Gary just needs the points. Without a win in 2 now and 3 losses would really hit any chances of him winning this league, and getting the momentum into the Semi-finals.Firstly, that's really poor from the Premier League bosses to have two Scots against each other and the other one against Barney on a night when the Premier League is in Scotland. Way to kill an atmosphere, those four players should have been spread out amongst four matches.
Secondly, I think if you're taking players to win closely-matched games in the Premier League, you really need to be looking at 'draw no bet' as the 6-6 looms quite large in such a short format.
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After the England women posted 156, they were 1/7 to win the match. Why so short? South Africa came out and chased it down comfortably, just matching the modest run rate all the way. Why were England 1/7 when it looked like a very close match?
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15 minutes ago, Fader said:
I hate womens tennis with a passion. So weak.
In what way?
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You're putting yourself on the slippery slope again?
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Mr Tsonga loses to the world-ranked number 338. Seriously, you're in the wrong job. You're a Grand Slam finalist.
I'm sure I speak for everyone on here when I say lack of consistency is one of our biggest nightmares when trying to win money from betting.
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2 hours ago, Charity10k said:
Risk free guaranteed profit!
Bet365 have an offer that if you bet £50 or more on the PSG v Chelsea game tonight before the game that they will give you a risk free £50 bet in-play*.
*If your in-play bet loses Bet365 will refund your bet in cash!
So how do you use this to guarantee yourself a profit (without making it obvious to Bet365 what you are doing!)
You will need an account with Bet365 and Stan James and £150.
Looking at the win-draw-win market:
PSG to win - 1.62 (Bet365)
Draw - 3.9 (Bet365)
Chelsea to win - 6.5 (Stan James)
Before the game!
Bet £80.05 on PSG to win with Bet365
Bet £19.95 on Chelsea to win with Stan James
During the game!
Bet £50 on the game to end in a draw with Bet365
Total amount bet: £150
Result:
PSG win £179.68
Chelsea win £179.68
Draw £195
Why have you done it so the draw wins much more? If you're going to go to the trouble of giving us the maths, why not give us the bets which win the same amount for any of the three outcomes?
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5 hours ago, potus said:
Great odds on Arsenal. Mesut Ozil is a class above Leicester City.
I'm not saying their title challenge ends here but the bandwagon certainly does.
I hold my hands up and say I got that completely wrong. The game was totally even and only swung one way and then the other based on refereeing decisions and little rubs of the green here and there.
Man City or Spurs to win the title in my opinion, so we'll see where the odds settle once the match between them finishes.
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Great odds on Arsenal. Mesut Ozil is a class above Leicester City.
I'm not saying their title challenge ends here but the bandwagon certainly does.
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What code are you breaking?
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Gabashvili you clown, you can't repeatedly throw the lead away like that. People have money resting on it.
Not happy with that at all. Also, fed up losing bets by half a point, bookies need to start offering some kind of money back in that situation.
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14 hours ago, plloyd88 said:Ireland v Wales: New look Ireland to overturn same old Wales
If I remember correctly, you are Irish? I have read five different previews from rugby 'experts' who all fancy Wales or England for the title, so I'm not sure how much belief to put in your view which seems to go against this and favours your own nation.
Also, in your preview you have listed some of the teams' previous matches as 'home' or 'away' when they in fact took place at neutral venues.
Waggys Final Curtain
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Waggy, Waggy, Waggy. What have you done?
Knowledge: Good
Betting tips: Average
Bankroll management: Somewhere between horrific and non-existent.
People have tried to help you and offer you advice, but you seem to be intent on wasting your own hard work. I wish I had your depth of knowledge of such a wide range of different sports, it really is impressive. However, to see you spoiling that with a complete lack of bankroll management is very frustrating and such a waste.
Once again, I hope I am proved wrong on this prediction but I assume you are headed towards putting all your remaining profits on one or two big bets to chase your recent losses.