potus
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Posts posted by potus
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33 minutes ago, potus said:
England still favourites with the bookies after posting 142? Not a chance.
Very nice price on Afghanistan, thanks very much.
I hope Shahzad has a sensible bat in him? It would be very silly to come out firing as he has in their previous two games when they're only chasing 143. It would be a huge mistake for him to throw his wicket away early but that's exactly what I could see happening.
Ok, I'm getting annoyed now. As usual, my bet has gone hopelessly wrong.
This is an Afghanistan side who managed to make 160 batting first against Sri Lanka and 170 chasing 210 against South Africa, so chasing 140 should be pretty comfortable for them.
I can only analyse what's there, I'm getting fed up of losing money on these T20 games.
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England still favourites with the bookies after posting 142? Not a chance.
Very nice price on Afghanistan, thanks very much.
I hope Shahzad has a sensible bat in him? It would be very silly to come out firing as he has in their previous two games when they're only chasing 143. It would be a huge mistake for him to throw his wicket away early but that's exactly what I could see happening.
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45 minutes ago, Fader said:
I'm not sure why you rate SA so much more highly than England. SA are rated 4th in world at 20/20 level and England 5th but England have played 24 matches to get that ranking whilst SA have played 32. It's a 50/50 at worst for England. England are not going to win this event but only because they have no bowling attack other than 2 decent spinners. Root is world class, Buttler and Hales are easily good enough to be here. Roy done a job last game. They are no worse than SA in my opinion.
South Africa just beat England five matches in a row didn't they?
As I've said previously, South Africa (along with India, Australia, New Zealand) have a good match in them maybe three times out of four whereas England (along with West Indies and Pakistan) have a good match maybe one time out of four.
Also, England only have two consistently good players (Root and Buttler) whereas South Africa have many more than that, getting on for a full team's worth.
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6 minutes ago, TheBeast said:
I am no expert in betting but being an Indian and an avid cricket fan I know pretty much what would be the outcome of a cricket match based on the tempo of a game.... The best thing about cricket betting though is the in play betting on match outcome.... Trust me the bookmakers never get the in play odds right i.e. there's always value on the underdog... For eg. consider the 2 matches which came out as a surprise
1. NZ v AUS
Australia were cruising in the match but at 68-4, it was quite obvious that odds of 2.57 were exceptionally valuable for NZ because they were in with a chance with Smith, Khwaja, Warner gone.
2. Eng v SA
This match was quite a dramatic one. SA put up 229 and there and then ENG were almost out of the tournament. But, ENG put up a mammoth 89 off first 6 overs and guess the odds at that time for England - 2.37..... Obviously a team scoring @ 15 rpo in first 6 overs can chase @ 10.00 rpo fpr the rest pf the match....
Obviously i took both of them amd luckily won them...
My point is that u will have much better chance of winning a bet if you go for in play rather than pre match bets.....
All the best and hope your lossesdon't sway you off your mark....
That may be good advice because I tend to do the opposite of you and lump on the favourites in-play.
So, for example, I lumped on South Africa in-play against England.
Are you sure you're not just remembering the games where the favourites lost though? Do you really believe this to be a profitable long-term strategy?
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1 hour ago, potus said:
I need to stop betting on cricket....
For the second time in a few days, South Africa don't even give my bet a chance. I backed them on the handicaps to win by more than 40 runs and after a fairly mediocre batting display, they give the bet no chance whatsoever with their first few overs of bowling. Have they learned nothing from the England game?
South Africa putting me through huge disappointment again.
Can I ask some of the 'experts' on here, do any of you make money betting on cricket? If so, which markets do you look for, any tips or suggestions? It looks so easy to bet on but then teams throw in these horrific performances you wouldn't expect. South Africa for example, who have eight or nine good players shouldn't really be losing to an England team with two good players. Obviously upsets happen in any sport but they seem more of an upset often in this sport and format (Australia failing to make 100 with ten wickets, South Africa failing to defend 230 etc.)
Any suggestions for markets to look out for/avoid?
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I need to stop betting on cricket....
For the second time in a few days, South Africa don't even give my bet a chance. I backed them on the handicaps to win by more than 40 runs and after a fairly mediocre batting display, they give the bet no chance whatsoever with their first few overs of bowling. Have they learned nothing from the England game?
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5 hours ago, potus said:
Australia (and me by betting on them) have got themselves involved in a bit of a car crash here.
.... and it turns out that was just the starter. South Africa can't defend 229. I mean, come off it. How are we meant to make money if we've got Australia who can't score 100 with 10 wickets in hand and England comfortably chasing 230 with their 10 wickets.
Dale Steyn's first over was an absolute farce and turned what was a non-match into very much game on. So poor from someone of his experience and quality.
I hate seeing England win at the best of times but when it's costing me vast sums of money like it did there, the pain is almost unbearable. I'm curled up in bed struggling to come to terms with what I've just witnessed.
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Australia (and me by betting on them) have got themselves involved in a bit of a car crash here.
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I have to say, 1/14 on New Zealand women beating Ireland women looks a very decent price. I'd have expected it to be a lot shorter than that. (That's without shopping around, maybe it's priced even better than that in some places.)
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14 minutes ago, neilovan said:
I don't think he will get it. If they wanted him he would be there already
That isn't necessarily true. Mourinho might want to wait until the summer and Man Utd would obviously happily oblige. He's always wanted the job, there's nowhere left for him to go in football, is there? It's pretty much been confirmed already hasn't it? I'm not sure why you believe otherwise.
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1 hour ago, neilovan said:
Regarding the Man U Liverpool game.
Watching the Champions league game between Bayern and Juventus last night, showed how far
United and Liverpool are off the pace. Juve looked unreal for 60 minutes, while Bayern have quality all over the field.
Neither Liverpool or United could live with the top 5 or 6 European clubs. Liverpool def have more potential.
They have a dynamic manager, that will get the best out of them. His Summer transfer business will be interesting.
van Gall, well who knows ? United are playing awful soccer. They can put you to sleep (often) ...
The transfer business van Gall has made has been rubbish. The lack of quality/belief/confidence/ability is everywhere.
Do you really want Martial and dePay at 30 odd million a shot, or Cavani at 40 million ?
I can remember games under Ron Atkinson, and they were better than this.
There is no improvement. When they win it appears to be some random combination of luck and chance,
rather than a defined methodology and skill. Fluke games that United won this season include the 3-0 at Everton, and the 3-2 over Arsenal.
In the first game United were terrible. Slow, one-paced, missing every pass and panicked. They could not beat the press.
van Gall can talk it up all he likes, but United will not get a result in this game. Confidence looks shot, and you are in trouble
when your goalkeeper is your best player. They would be better off having an open run-and-gun game, where goals would flow,
but they will play the same backwards and sideways passing outdated garbage.
May have a small flutter on Liverpool at 2.9 for the win, but the BTTS at 1.83 looks sweeter
on a side note : I think Mourinho is never going to get the United job.
If the board and Charlton and Fergie liked him, he would have had the job months ago.
For me the sleeper/quiet choice is PSG manager Laurent Blanc.
I'm pretty sure it's football's worst kept secret that Mourinho is getting the Man Utd job in the summer.
(Which opens up a sad dilemma for me because I love Jose but hate Man Utd.)
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India, India, India. What an absolute shambles.
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45 minutes ago, waggy said:
It was a final round 2 ball
Yeah, I thought their final rounds were four over and three over, with Duke winning?
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56 minutes ago, waggy said:
Results: Stenson 11th, WON £120 ~ Spieth jt18th, WON £90 ~ Levante 1-0, LOST £150 ~ Tottenham won 2-0, WON £240 ~ PSG -1 won 9-0, WON £160 ~ Reifers 68, Duke 74, WON £80 ~ Total won £540
Profit to date £915.24
Can you or someone else just clarify that Reifers/Duke result please because I thought it was Reifers +4 and Duke +3, in which case the bet would have lost?
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Donkey batting from Ireland, donkey betting from me. I've lost a lot of money on them not completing that simple run chase.
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10 minutes ago, waggy said:
I've just seen what age you are potus and of course £1000 will seem a huge sum of money to you, it did for me at that age. I don't expect you bet like me, though I would point out that had you mirrored my bets you would have gained £500. I can't be bothered to keep justifying myself over and over again so I will keep quiet for a while to try and get this thread back on track again.
As I said in a previous post, I don't think saying 'I am £500 up as things stand' is much of a boast or very relevant. When you were betting sensibly and consistently winning around £400 month after month, then your overall winnings were relevant. However, currently your balance is up and down and all over the place so taking your balance on one particular day is not very relevant as it is more down to luck than judgement because you are betting such huge percentages of your bankroll every day.
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23 minutes ago, Js90 said:
Agree with what you say Potus, i just don't think Waggy wants or needs to hear it, he wins and loses his way like he says. Im not going to go over the whole thread so i don't know but have you ever praised him at all? It just looks like you constantly have a dig when things do not go to plan.
I've praised Waggy's knowledge of such a wide range of sports many times.
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20 minutes ago, waggy said:
Minnella Aris 3rd, LOST £800 ~ Crystal Pace won 2-0, WON £200 ~ Total lost £600
Profit to date £499.09 End of the 9th month
Wow this thread has stirred up a hornets nest. I have taken quite a battering lately with a sometimes bizarre set of unexpected results. The target was indeed £400 a month which would be £9600 profit at the end of the two years. This was only a monthly target, with the main aim to make £9600 in these two years. As I've said before I do my own thing and bet the way I want to. I will not change my ways because my way has served me well over more years than I would want admit to. I have to laugh though as I seem to be a failure for winning £500 in nine months. Hopefully I will continue to make a profit, and with my style of betting the bank will rise over the coming 15 months. Thanks all for the posts.
There are two parts I would take exception with here.
Firstly, you and other posters are trying to claim that you have been a victim of bad luck or a freak set of recent results. The problem is, you have repeatedly chased your losses with big bets and this isn't me being wise after the event, I have said for a long time that that strategy will only end one way. You got away with it several times, but eventually that was going to catch up with you. That isn't unlucky, that's just statistics. There is no point in working really hard and winning a load of £20 bets and £50 bets which - I'll repeat again - was really impressive, to then put £800 on a single horse race, because win or lose, that one big bet negates all your much smaller bets you worked so hard on.
Secondly, nobody has said you are a failure, those are your own words. Equally however, last night you were fractions away from being £200 down after ten months of betting, so given the fine margins involved between being up or down, I don't think you can seriously expect to be lauded as a success for turning £1000 into £1500 in ten months?
So, you are now claiming your only aim is to turn £1,000 into £11,000 in two years, regardless of how you get there, is that correct? You are taking a very bizarre and scenic route if that is the case and I'm not sure how many people on here believe that will be achieved but I look forward to you proving everyone wrong.
I'd like to apologise again if people think I am being impolite or overly critical. I think I have realised where my concerns have come from. A few months ago I saw this thread and thought 'Wow, this poster really knows their stuff, they are consistently making £400 a month from a starting bankroll of £1,000. I could deposit £1,000 and follow their bets and do the same.' I genuinely had so much respect for you and was going to deposit £1,000 (sadly a huge sum of money for me) and follow your bets. When I see how this thread has panned out and consider what would have happened to my £1,000 had I done that, it makes me very thankful that I didn't have enough money spare at the time to do so because this thread has unfortunately descended into chaos.
I do wish you good luck in turning things around but I think there is a massive change in strategy and bankroll management needed to make that happen.
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3 hours ago, Skittle said:
Potus.........you have failed to 'answer' to any challenge that Waggy has put to you. All you do is plaster this thread with put downs. Now you're on the path of kicking a man when he's down. Give it a bloody rest.
I don't think it's about answering a challenge, is it? I've openly said that I don't currently have either the knowledge or the bankroll to make money from betting. Surely that doesn't mean that I'm not allowed an opinion or that I can't help other people who are trying to make money?
'You couldn't do any better' isn't an automatic way to deflect any criticism or to make my opinions invalid.
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2 hours ago, vikki37 said:
Thank you, Skittle. I was thinking for a long time whether to say anything about it or not because this is supposed to be a betting thread, it is Waggy's and also not an arguing thread... but there is a limit to things and it is quite getting annoying. If potus, you don't like what waggy does, you don't like this thread and don't agree with him then just stay out of it and don't read it at all. All you do on most threads are just insulting people or making bad comments at people who have lost their bets/predictions when they are only trying to help others too. What have you done? Any input except being impolite?
Sorry if it came across as impolite. I haven't been offensive or insulting, I've only spoken the truth and asked legitimate questions. Nothing was done in a mocking tone, we all tried to work with Waggy as we're all here for the same reason - I think - which is to make money.
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9 hours ago, Js90 said:
This collapse is exactly why i have cooled down my own betting, we cant win and even when we get ahead bad runs like this happen, unlucky.
Can I ask please why you keep claiming the poster is unlucky when it's fairly clear for all to see that their bets have spiralled out of control and they have caused their own downfall by repeatedly chasing losses. What was unlucky about what went on here?
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4 hours ago, waggy said:
£500 Reading v Crystal Palace OVER 1.5 goals @2/5
Ok, this is getting silly now.
Can you please clarify where you are going with this thread because your initial aim was to make £400 a month and that's long since gone out the window, so can you clarify your new aim and how you plan to achieve that. Thanks.
Currently it would appear your only intention is to lose your initial £1,000 bankroll by betting for the sake of it with no clear game plan but maybe I have missed something?
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So, what now?
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13 minutes ago, Js90 said:
Cut him some slack Potus, although i agree with what you say how about you show us how its done then? Would be good to see someone else try too.
Unlucky with the Ireland bet, I have no idea about Golf but hopefully the two bets come in for you, at least the £450 one anyway
I hold my hands up and say I don't have the knowledge to beat the bookies unfortunately. I think that's why it's so frustrating, Waggy's knowledge is really good but they are giving themselves no chance whatsoever of making money by having no bankroll management to go with the knowledge.
Twenty20 World Cup 2016
in Cricket Predictions
Posted
How do you 'read the pitch' then? If you can see there isn't going to be a massive score, is there any chance you can give some tips on that in future? My first bet today WAS on England making a large score, so it would have been good to know that you could see otherwise.