boyd
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Posts posted by boyd
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Re: bets for euro 2008
All the matches won for a good profit but don't think i'll be getting anything from my top scorers outright (obviously picked the wrong German) or my countries top scorers but can't complain with my bets so far!!! :spank the bookies.Sorry only just got back in so one of my games is in play. Some more of my bets i have done are: fourfold and trebles from the following games:- Portugal to beat Turkey, Croatia to beat Austria, Germany to beat Poland and Germany to beat Austria. Klose 11/1 e/w top scorer Gomez 20/1 top scorer on betfair and 7.2 on betfair for top 3. Ballack top three on betfair at 14/1. Double on Croatia to beat Austria and Germany to beat Poland on Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfair. Fourfold and trebles for their countries top scorer: Torres(Spain), Toni(Italy), Petric (Croatia), Linz(Austria) and then the same again with no goalscorer for Austria. -
Re: bets for euro 2008
That'll do!!! Made a great profit from this. Unfortunately was the lowest of the four odds that came in but can't complain about a 16/1 shot treble. Also had Austria 0-2 group points come in as a single and the doubles of Austria 0-2 points with Portugal 5-6 and Spain 7-9 at around 6/1 for both. :gimmeWith Coral i have found that you can have doubles, trebles and fourfolds with the number of group points total with the different groups (only one from each group maximum, e.g. you can't combine Germany and Austria). I am wanting to keep away from Group C as i feel it is difficult to predict, and feel that Austria are garbage, while Spain and Portugal should do well in their groups. Portugal should win their group in what is relatively easy, while Spain should qualify (not necessarily win the group IMO). I have come to the conclusion Portugal and Spain should both obtain at least 5 points each and bet on the following. 1. Austria 0-2 points Portugal 5-6 points Spain 5-6 points odds - 20.48/1 2. Austria 0-2 points Portugal 5-6 points Spain 7-9 points odds - 16.21/1 3. Austria 0-2 points Portugal 7-9 points Spain 5-6 points odds - 23.63/1 4. Austria 0-2 points Portugal 7-9 points Spain 7-9 points odds 18.70/1 Overall i think it may be better value than the single on Austria 0-2 points. -
Re: Changing odds - help needed (please!....) Leftpeg, my odds i gave you to qualify were from the racing post preview of Euro 2008, so is reliable information and the amount i worked out for you is correct for every pound you'd have put on. Croatia were odds on to qualify but that is not surprising considering they had Austria and Poland in their group. If your dad was expecting around £90 from £5 then he would have wanted Croatia and Russia as group winners not just to qualify so you would not owe him as Russia didn't win the group. Croatia were 12/5 to win the group and Russia were around 9/2 to win the group and off £5 you would have got £93.50 back from these odds. And before you ask again, yes these odds are correct!!!
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Re: Austria v Germany (Monday) I've taken Germany on asian handicap -1, &-.5 on betfair at 2.06. If they win by two or more i win full stake odds, if they only win by one i only lose half my stake. I can only see Germany winning as they are way ahead of Austria in terms of ability. I don't care Austria are at home and still have a chance of qualifying... they wont, Germany should win hopefully by more than one. Also had a small stake bet on Ballack for first scorer, he takes penalties and free kicks and is a danger in the air from crosses.
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Re: Changing odds - help needed (please!....) I think Croatia were 8/15 to qualify and Russia were 6/5 at various betting companies. So for every £1 pound you'd have put on you'd get a return of around £3.37.
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Re: Golf: US Open 2008
Then you have Tiger who's been all over the place yet somehow has managed to end up in this play off. He's walking wounded but has kept going superbly well. Considering Woods has dropped six shots or something on the opening hole over the four days and still manages to get in the play offs is phenomenal. He showed a lot of bottle to put that one on the 18th, will hopefully be a good play off, but can't believe they have another 18 holes to play. -
Re: Turkey v Czech Rep (Sunday)
If it is a draw it goes straight to penalties after the 90 minutes, not the coefficient rating.[email protected] Turkey need the win since a draw will favor the Czechs due to their coefiicient rating. Turkey battle hard against the hosts and proved their mettle coming back from 1-0 down. The Czechs have been unimpressive and are quite fortunate to be in this position. The Czechs have given up plenty of scoring chances in their first two matches the Turks have a deep attack with Nihat, Semih and Tucay to exploit the Czech defense. I think they will be able to breakdown the Czechs and be able to keep the Czech attack under control. -
Re: Austria Vs. Germany : Tuesday Germany only need to draw to qualify, so if Germany draw and Poland win Germany are through because of the head to head between the two teams when Germany won 2-0.
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Re: bets i think Portugal could be value at those odds, they don't have anything to play for in the game but neither do Switzerland. Even if they rest a few of the best players then there are still good technical players to replace them that will try their hardest in the hope of playing there way into the starting team. The other two games with Croatia and Holland can an affect on who goes through. I think that the bookies have priced them high because i'm sure Croatia would rather Poland go through in the unlikely event of Germany getting beat by Austria, and that Holland may want Romania through, even thought they didn't beat them in qualifying, rather than Italy or France. This isn't my view, just how bookies may perceive it.
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Re: Group A
No, group A was the only group i put a striaght forecast on but have Germany and Croatia in a dual forecast treble with Spain to win group D and Austria to come bottom of their group. Also had Austria to get 0-2 points, Portugal and Spain to win their groups in singles and then trebles involving Austria, Spain and Portugal for the number of points they get in the group, which is looking good (it's in the bets for euro 2008 section). Portugal have already won for me, need Spain to get at least two more points in their group and Austria not to beat Germany for a very nice profit. As for Beenhakker, i think he's probably just being honest that he expects Germany get at least a point against Austria to qualify but i'd still expect Poland to give Croatia a tough game. Even if Germany win and Croatia lose they've won the group because of head-to-head of the teams.Cheers mate, I would have taken you up on that Betfair tip if the unthinkable hadnt happened and Germany blew it against the Croats! As its a treble accy with no full cover, nevermind what happens in the Czech match it looks doomed to fail as I cannot see Poland playing to win against Croatia in the hope that Austria beat Germany. In other words I think the Germany 1st, Croatia 2nd combo is now out the window :cry I find it a bit disappointing from a punters point of view that Beenhakker has also told the press that he believes qualification is beyond them, so my bet looks dead in the water now. GL with your forecast :hope I hope you werent also backing the 1: Ger, 2: Cro forecast as well! -
Re: Group A
Yeah agree with that' date=' I was only looking to lay-off if it got as far as the last set og games in Group D. Its hard to cover when there is the additional outcome of a loss on penalties. Think I will just let it slide and hope the Czechs can do the business, not confident though :hope[/quote'] Hey Broken, it is possible to cover the bet if you bet on either the straight forecast or Turkey to qualify on betfair currently at 2.48 (6/4). I've just decided to take the rest of 2.5 that was available as a cover but will still be hoping the Czechs make it through as i'd still get a profit, whereas if Turkey go through i'll only make a slight profit. GL in whatever you decide to do, but it all has to do with what is at stake for you personally from your stake. :ok -
Re: Question Regarding: ITALY vs ROMANIA
Agree to your sentiments' date=' chaps, but even if you can't see past Italy in this ine, it doesn't answer the original question in the first post (and as such belongs to the match thread, btw;)) Covering both outcomes - Romania and draw, is the way to go (WHICH ONLY APPLIES AS A REPLY TO DEMMA:))[/quote'] Totally agree with Tulenos, get the draw and Romania win covered to guarentee a profit. Italy may be favourites and may win but it wont be an easy game. France failed to score past them and Holland failed twice to score against them in the qualifiers. I would say Italy are likely to win but it'll be too close for you not to cover. Once you've covered you can then maybe bet in play if you see a team on top of the game, but at least then you'll only be gambling with your guarenteed profit. -
Re: Group B Austria v Poland After seeing the previous meetings between the two sides i am going for over 2.5 goals as my main bet at 13/8 on betfair and a small bet on over 3.5 goals at 5.3 on betfair. Both teams will know that they have to win to stand any chance of qualifying for the knockout stages which could lead to an open game. I don't think the outcome of Germany and Croatia will really affect the way Austria and Poland will need to play their game, as i think neither can settle for a draw. Poland did very well in qualifying for the tournament and after their bad start against Germany in first half hour, did start to play better and should create many chances against Austria, while Austria will try to put in a committed performance in front of their fans and look to create against a team they realistically only have any chance of taking any points from in the group. Poland have scored three goals against Austria in three of the last four games, including two victories in world cup 2006 qualifiers 3-1 and 3-2 so i feel there could be another goal feast, hopefully anyway!!! :hope
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Re: Group A
I'm just going to let this one go and hope that Czech Rep either win in normal time or on penalties. The straight forecast in this group isn't one of my main bets, my main one for this group was Portugal to win the group. Depending on how much you have on the only way you can really try to cover it is backing the forecast with Turkey (if you think Czech will get beat) but IMO that would take most of your profit away. With the situation being that if Czech lose they're out and if they draw they can still go out it is difficult to cover. I think Czech are the better side so i'd suggest to just hope Czech do us a favour and win.:hopeSo with that in mind how do you all reckon its gonna go? Give me some hope here! The odds on the draw are tumbling and I have a feeling the Turks are gonna win it on pens. The Czechs have been disappointing so far, Baros and Koller may still be there but the other players from their generation who have retired have taken with them the spark that made the Czechs such a great footballing side. Turkey will be on a high, especially with the manner in which they snatched a win from a draw. Personally, Im praying for more rain- lots of it! :lol Amazing to think that that Quaresma goal that put a bit of icing on Portugals result is the difference between the Czechs just needing a draw. -
Re: Group A yeah just found it on the article, looks like it will go to penalties. First i've ever heard of a group game potentially being settled on penalties. Wouldn't surprise me if some of the players and managers didn't even know that is the way a group may be decided. If anyone else wants to read it click on the link from broken's message and it is point 7.08!!!
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Re: Group A
That is a different coeffiecient total to the one that i've been looking at, here's the one i've used: - Ranking and coefficients for all 16 teams when applying criteria (f) : 1. 2.417 - Holland 2. 2.409 - Croatia 3. 2.364 - Italy 4. 2.333 - Czech Republic 5. 2.273 - Sweden 6. 2.250 - Romania 6. 2.250 - Germany 8. 2.192 - Portugal 9. 2.182 - Spain 10. 2.167 - Greece 10. 2.167 - Poland 12. 2.091 - France 13. 1.958 - Russia 13. 1.958 - Turkey 15. 1.800 - Switzerland 16. 1.500 - AustriaYou and me both mate- except mine is in a treble with: 1st Ger 2nd Cro; 1st Spa 2nd Swe; £8.50 @ 69-1 so its very, very, very, very important to me that the Czechs go through lol! :hope For what its worth, the co-efficients: Turkey: 3.91 Czechs: 5 -
Re: Group A
It definitely wont go to penalties after the group game if it is a joke. Someone is having a laugh with the Turkish public if that is what was said. :loonIve never heard of anything ever going to penalties in a group game! Its always decided off the pitch, even if it comes down to naff things like fair play. Those rules explain it clearly so either those rules are not from UEFA or someones having a laugh and winding the Turks up. -
Re: Group A
Yeah sorry forgot to put the coefficient list to show that Czech Rep are above Turkey. As soon as the game was over i went checking because i have the straight forecast with Czech Rep to come second behind Portugal. :hopeJust checked and the co-efficient is massively in the Czech's favour so a draw will take them through. whether thats a good thing remains to be seen! -
Re: Group A Portugal have won the group but who goes through if Czech Rep and Turkey draw? They are both on the same points and both scored two and conceded three. I have found a tie breaker rules for the competition and think that it may go down to coefficients where Czech Rep would go through. Am i right that it would go down to point f )? TIE-BREAKER RULES : If two or more teams finish equal on points after all the group matches have been played, the following criteria will be applied to determine the ranking : (a) Greater number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question. (b) Goal difference resulting from the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal). © Greater number of goals scored in the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal). (d) Goal difference in all the group matches. (e) Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches. (f) Coefficient of points from the last two qualifying competitions for the final rounds of the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2008 (points gained and divided by the number of matches played). (g) Fair Play conduct of the teams (final tournament). (h) A drawing of lots by the Organising Committee. There is no need to apply criteria (g) & (h) at this year’s championship because the only teams with equal coefficient under criteria (f) are teams of Romania & Germany (ranked 5.), Greece & Poland (ranked 10.) and then Russia & Turkey (ranked 13.) - teams that were drawn into different groups anyway.
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Re: Group A
For those of you that feel the Switzerland and Turkey game will be a dirty game and that there will be a lot of bookings due to past events between the teams William Hill are doing a specials bet for bookings as follows in a match up against Portugal v Czech Rep. Most bookings: - Switzerland V Turkey 11/10 Czech Republic V Portugal 15/8 Tie 23/10 I feel the Swiss v Turkey game will probably end up with more bookings as long as the Portuguese don't start diving for get booked. The Switzerland game is likely to be more physical as they battle to get some points on the board and if there is a losing team in the last half hour, then they may get frustrated and start kicking their opponents.After the pandemonium in the play offs for the World Cup 2006, I'm looking forward to the Switzerland vs Turkey game. Keep an eye on the bookings. But bookies will probably be aware of that and will set the lines high. The Swiss could make it to the next stage. My personal theory says that one of the hosts will definitely progress and Switzerland look much stronger than Austria. -
Re: Austria v Croatia (Sunday)
Yeah they went 3-0 up before losing 4-3. A new meaning for the Dutch winning on the handicap perhaps, give them a three goal lead in play then start playing.:lolYeah didn't they manage to score three against the Dutch?. -
Re: French Open 25th May - 8th June boyd;1106525 Nice profit for me from the French Open, mainly from the price on Nadal outright winner at 4/5. :beer
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Re: French Open 25th May - 8th June
Nice profit for me from the French Open, mainly from the price on Nadal outright winner at 4/5. :beerAlready have Nadal at 4/5 before the tournament but have taken the 9/5 on straight sets win for Nadal for reasonably small stakes. -
Re: New password Yeah i changed my password and everything seems to be working fine again. Thanks for your help.
Golf: The Open , 2008
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
Posted
Re: Golf: The Open , 2008 My main bet has been Ernie Els to beat Mickelson over 72 holes at 5/6. Some may think it is crazy to back an odds on with some of the massive prices available. I just don't think Mickelson is good at The Open Championships. Mickelson made his debut as an amateur at The Open in 1991 at Birkside, before returning as a pro in 1994, playing every year since, while Els has played at everyone since 1992. The main fact that the 5/6 (which is now 8/11 on betfair) is over the 14 years that both Mickelson and Els have played at The Open, Mickelson has NEVER come ahead of Els. Els has an excellent record at The Open Championships with seven top ten positions, including a victory in 2002, and never missed the cut wheras Mickelson has missed the cut 3/14 and only troubled the leaders once when coming 3rd in 2004 (Els came 2nd). Below is the summary of the overall positions/ shots between the two:- 1991- Mickelson as amateur, no Els 1992- Els tied 5th, no Mickelson 1993- Els tied 5th, no Mickelson 1994- Mickelson missed cut 1995- Els 5 shots ahead of Mickelson 1996- Els 3rd overall, 11 shots ahead 1997- Els 2 shots ahead of Mickelson 1998- Els 16 shots ahead of Mickelson (AT BIRKSIDE) 1999- Mickelson missed cut 2000- Els 4 shots ahead of Mickelson 2001- Els 7 shots ahead of Mickelson 2002- Els won overall, 12 shots ahead of Mickelson 2003- Els 7 shots ahead of Mickelson 2004- Els 2nd overall, Mickelson 3rd overall, 1 shot ahead 2005- Els 3 shots ahead of Mickelson 2006- Els 3rd overall, 8 shots ahead of Mickelson 2007- Els 4th overall, Mickelson missed cut I have also backed Els to win outright (18), top 5 and top 10 all on betfair. Can't remember the exact prices of them all at the moment. Other bets that i have taken are: winning nationaliy - U.S. at 5/2 with Coral as 10/13 Open championships have been won by an American, with a saver bet on Spanish winner at 8/1 as i like Garcia and Jimenez and feel they could be a big danger to the leaders on the Sunday. A double over 72 holes on Garcia to beat Mickelson and Westwood to beat Anthony Kim. I think both Garcia and Westwood will be suited to the course at The Open and could be amongst the leaders while Mickelson tends to struggle and apparently Kim has struggled in some of the practice to adapt to the course. odds - 2.4/1 with Coral. Also had a small interest bet on Saxton 7/2 to be top amateur.