Fader

I do not care about the grammar of my posts.  The majority of the people who follow my tips both from here and Twitter also do not.  If you do have a problem with it,  then it's your problem but I'm certainly not going to go through previews with a fine tooth comb checking the English of it all.  It was written well enough for you to understand I'm sure. 

Firstly, congratulations on a very successful tournament. Also, well done on keeping us updated so regularly on your results and whether you are up/down - that's the way it should be on this site, lots of people could learn a lot from you.
I can't agree with taking Federer to beat Djokovic at those odds though. You must have seen their meetings in the finals of the previous two Grand Slams - they certainly weren't close enough to merit the odds of roughly 3/10 and 27/10 on offer. It's Djokovic who represents value here, not Federer. No way can he take three sets off Novak today. 
 

Womens Semi-Finals Preview :

2pts A.Radwanska to beat S.Williams 5/1 Betway
This match worries me alittle as Radwanska has never beaten Serena. She has won all 8 of the head-2-heads. She has won the last 5 on the hardcourt and every single one in straight sets... so this is a stupid bet. However, I do feel that Radwanska is in better form now than the last match they played in 2013. This kinda of match always has the potential to be a steamrolled 6-1 6-2 job for Serena which is a worry. Alot will depend on Radwanskas serve. It might not make any sense but I see value on Radwanska at 5/1.

4pts J.Konta to beat A.Kerber 5/2 Skybet
Konta is flying at the moment. She is on a crest of a wave and the luck is going her way in the draw too because if she was playing Azarenka I think she'd be beaten easy but Kerber is a good match-up for her in my opinion and I actually think she can win this with a few games to spare. I will just take the win though and try not to be greedy (2-0 Konta is 5/1 very tempting) my only slight worry is Konta having to play 2 games in 2 nights which is abit unfair if you ask me. Atleast she won against Zhang easy enough to keep her fresh. Konta to make a grand slam final. 

Womens QF Previews. Part 2 :
6pts V.Azarenka to beat Kerber 2-0 4/6 Bet365
Much similar to the Serena / Sharapova match, Azarenka has the curse over Kerber. They have played eachother 6 times and Azarenka has won all 6. 5 of those on the hard courts and 3 of those 5 won in straight sets. Most importantly those 3 were since late 2015 so not long ago atall. I don't see Kerber winning atall, and so it's either this set bet or the games bet and this could easily be 7-6 6-4 so the games handicap is no good for me. Azarenka in 2.
2pts J.Konta to beat S.Zhang 2-1 3/1 Ladbrokes
Anyone following me on this thread will have Konta at 12/1 to win this match so I won't be getting too involved in this one. I do feel it will be close though because I think Konta may not perform to her highest ability now that she is a favourite instead of the underdog. 

By all means. Good to have discussion on here. We need more of it.

Womens QF Previews. Part 2 :
6pts V.Azarenka to beat Kerber 2-0 4/6 Bet365
Much similar to the Serena / Sharapova match, Azarenka has the curse over Kerber. They have played eachother 6 times and Azarenka has won all 6. 5 of those on the hard courts and 3 of those 5 won in straight sets. Most importantly those 3 were since late 2015 so not long ago atall. I don't see Kerber winning atall, and so it's either this set bet or the games bet and this could easily be 7-6 6-4 so the games handicap is no good for me. Azarenka in 2.
2pts J.Konta to beat S.Zhang 2-1 3/1 Ladbrokes
Anyone following me on this thread will have Konta at 12/1 to win this match so I won't be getting too involved in this one. I do feel it will be close though because I think Konta may not perform to her highest ability now that she is a favourite instead of the underdog. 

so, we finish the Quarter finals tonight. I will leave the Murray game as the bookies always make sure there is no value in his matches. 
Mens QF Previews, Part 2 : 
5pts M.Raonic -3.5 games to beat G.Monfils 4/5 Ladbrokes
I noticed when watching the highlights of the Raonic Vs Wawrinka match is, what Milos is doing very well is attacking at the net. His big serve is awesome and then he quickly gets to the net. I think that's what Nish should of done Vs Djokovic. Attack and go to the net. Try something different. Monfils will want to be hitting it from the baseline and I think if Milos plays like he did against Wawrinka he should cover this handicap pretty easily. But Monfils is a true athlete and he could take a set here so I don't want to risk too much on the set betting or handicap set betting and will just go for the games handicap as I don't expect Monfils to get 2 sets. Raonic is playing brilliantly. Long may it continue to the title.

By all means. Good to have discussion on here. We need more of it.

Yes I did. But it was one of those bets I just took blindly as i was too tired to research. I believe that you are more up to date with the stats than myself. However I just believe that tipping most times requires us to use more tools than we care to have available, and also there always is that point in trying to analyze a tip where stats can sometimes become a hindrance. I tend to use stats, odds, and circumstance to reach most of my conclusions in  ways that it work for me. No question I agree you are spot on with the stats, but here I realise that I need to be logging into my "circumstance" instead as it just gives me a confident natural feeling of been right. Good luck either way!!!

Womens Quarter-Final previews : 
I'll be leaving Aggys match alone as I have her for the outright and I don't see too much value but I'll take 6pts S.Williams to beat M.Sharapova 2-0 4/6 Bet365
Serena's dominance of Sharapova is ridiculous. Played eachother 20 times. Serena has won 18 of those including winning the last 17 in a row and the last 3 on the hard courts in straight sets. I'd be amazed if Shara won this. Serena in 2.

Mens Quarter-Final Previews :
5pts R.Federer -6 games to beat T.Berdych 6/5 Bet36
Played eachother many times but Federer has won the last three on the hardcourts. He brushed aside Goffin with such ease and I think he will win this one 3-0/3-1 also. Either way atleast one of those sets again I believe will be a 6-2 job so I'm happy to test this handicap. Berdych shouldn't even be here in my eyes. Agut should of beat him. Especially that second set. Once it went 1-1 Berdych just took control. Prediction 6-4 6-3 6-4
2pts K.Nishikori to beat N.Djokovic 11/2 Bet365
I think I'll take a punt on Kei here. No doubt Djokovic is the big favourite and it's very unlikely Nishikori wins here but Novak doesn't look that great right now and although this could easily be a 6-1 6-2 6-1 job to Novak, it could also be a tight Kei win.. I'm blabbering... Nish to win. Come on Nish!!  I want a Nishikori Vs Raonic final!

Womens preview : 
4pts J.Konta to beat E.Makarova 6/4 Bet365
This one should be close you'd think. Konta looks strong and composed and the head-2-head reads one match and one win for Konta (albeit on the grass) and she won that one easy (6-2 6-4) you'd say that Makarova is obviously the better player and she has alot of weapons but if Konta can raise her game just alittle she can most certainly win this. 

Womens preview : 
4pts J.Konta to beat E.Makarova 6/4 Bet365
This one should be close you'd think. Konta looks strong and composed and the head-2-head reads one match and one win for Konta (albeit on the grass) and she won that one easy (6-2 6-4) you'd say that Makarova is obviously the better player and she has alot of weapons but if Konta can raise her game just alittle she can most certainly win this. 

3,5pts profit today then. Could of been so different. Few chokers but hey ho. +51.75pts on the open now. 
Mens previews :
3.75pts G.Monfils -5.5 games to beat A.Kuznetsov Evens Betfred
Monfils is going well so far. He has dispatched of everyone put him front of him with ease and I expect him to win 3-0/3-1 in this match. They have played before on the hardcourt not long ago in 2015 and Monfils won in straight sets and the crowd will be on his side too as he is a pure entertainer. 
5pts Over 43.5 games M.Raonic Vs S.Wawrinka 4/5 Skybet
Will stick to the games in this one as I already have the outright on Milos. Will be a close match in my opinion. Will be atleast 2 tie-breaks also in my opinion. You'd expect Wawrinka to grind it out however I hear he is under the weather and if his game isn't going on song he could lose this one. He normally wins the head-2-heads but lost the last on the hard (albeit a small event really) Id expect a 3-1 Wawrinka in my head at this point but I'm sticking with the games. Prediction 6-7 7-6 4-6 4-6

4 out of 5 winners then. Ivanovic a set and serving for 5-2 up  and then 3-1 up in the third set still loses 2-1. Brilliant. +11.50pts for the day. +48.25pts for the Open.
Mens previews :
4pts K.Nishikori -1.5 sets to beat Tsonga 6/4 Paddypower
I think it's a good match up for Nishikori this. They have played eachother 7 times and Nishikori has won 4 of those but more importantly is the fact he has won 4 out of the 5 hard court battles. His movement will be the key factor for me and his returning shots. I just hope if he gets through he can give Djokovic some problems.
4pts Over 36.5 games T.Berdych Vs Bautista-Agut Evens Ladbrokes
2pts Bautista-Agut to beat T.Berdych 
It wouldn't suprise me if Agut came close to winning this. They have played 3 hard court matches and Agut has won two of those including the last one in 2014. He has played really well this week and produced abit of a suprise not only beating Cilic but in straight sets. He looks to be serving really well and I think the difference between him and Kyrgios will be the solidarity of the serve.
3pts R.Federer -7.5 to beat D.Goffin 4/6 Bet365
I dont see Goffin giving Federer any problems atall. Federer beat Goffin 6-2 6-2 last time they played on the outdoor hard. He has only dropped one set to Dimitrov and Goffin has really struggled to get here in my eyes. I see atleast one of these sets being a 6-1/6-2 job so if it's 3-0 and even one set is like that you'd expect this to be covered.

Womens Preview :
2.5pts B.Bencic to beat M.Sharapova 12/5 Bet365
This will be Sharas first big test. Bencic at such a young age will in my eyes be world number 1 one day. Davis took a set from Shara and Bencic can beat her. They have never met and it should be a close match really. Maybe the age factor will come into it, Belinda is 10 years younger than Shara. If she holds her nerve she can win here. Come on Bencic.
4pts D.Gavrilova to beat Suarez Navarro 11/10 Skybet
Will go with the Aussie here. I think Navarro has had it easy so far (which is why i backed her at silly prices) no i don't think she can win the tournament but if she raised her game to her highest level she could go far and has shown some fantastic form. Gavrilova is doing that right now..playing at her highest level and that and the crowd will help her win this in my opinion. Winner plays Aggy 

Womens Preview :
2.5pts B.Bencic to beat M.Sharapova 12/5 Bet365
This will be Sharas first big test. Bencic at such a young age will in my eyes be world number 1 one day. Davis took a set from Shara and Bencic can beat her. They have never met and it should be a close match really. Maybe the age factor will come into it, Belinda is 10 years younger than Shara. If she holds her nerve she can win here. Come on Bencic.
4pts D.Gavrilova to beat Suarez Navarro 11/10 Skybet
Will go with the Aussie here. I think Navarro has had it easy so far (which is why i backed her at silly prices) no i don't think she can win the tournament but if she raised her game to her highest level she could go far and has shown some fantastic form. Gavrilova is doing that right now..playing at her highest level and that and the crowd will help her win this in my opinion. Winner plays Aggy 

4 out of 5 winners then. Ivanovic a set and serving for 5-2 up  and then 3-1 up in the third set still loses 2-1. Brilliant. +11.50pts for the day. +48.25pts for the Open.
Mens previews :
4pts K.Nishikori -1.5 sets to beat Tsonga 6/4 Paddypower
I think it's a good match up for Nishikori this. They have played eachother 7 times and Nishikori has won 4 of those but more importantly is the fact he has won 4 out of the 5 hard court battles. His movement will be the key factor for me and his returning shots. I just hope if he gets through he can give Djokovic some problems.
4pts Over 36.5 games T.Berdych Vs Bautista-Agut Evens Ladbrokes
2pts Bautista-Agut to beat T.Berdych 
It wouldn't suprise me if Agut came close to winning this. They have played 3 hard court matches and Agut has won two of those including the last one in 2014. He has played really well this week and produced abit of a suprise not only beating Cilic but in straight sets. He looks to be serving really well and I think the difference between him and Kyrgios will be the solidarity of the serve.
3pts R.Federer -7.5 to beat D.Goffin 4/6 Bet365
I dont see Goffin giving Federer any problems atall. Federer beat Goffin 6-2 6-2 last time they played on the outdoor hard. He has only dropped one set to Dimitrov and Goffin has really struggled to get here in my eyes. I see atleast one of these sets being a 6-1/6-2 job so if it's 3-0 and even one set is like that you'd expect this to be covered.

Womens previews :
5pts E.Makarova to beat K.Pliskova Evens Boylesports
2.5pts E.Makarova to win 2-0 12/5 Boylesports
Makarova has played Pliskova twice. Both were on the hard courts and Makarova won both. One of the wins was actually here last year in straight sets. She also has alot more experience which I think will count here. Pliskova not been this far before in a big slam and I think when it matters, Makarova will take the points. I'm also taking a small bet on the 2-0 win as that was also the result in both head-2-head matches and could well be again if Makarova takes the first set.
3pts A.Beck -2.5 games to beat L.Siegemund Evens Paddypower
I'm going for this bet based on how well Beck is playing. I watched her against Timea and she looked very good and was hitting the ball very well. It didn't help that Timea was double faulting for fun but Beck really took her chances and I see her winning this and covering the handicap.
5pts A.Ivanovic to beat M.Keys 13/10 Bet365
I think they have this price wrong and it will soon come down to evens so I'm taking the value now. Ana is far more experienced and has looked the better player so far. Keys hasn't truly been tested yet and she will be with this match. 2-1 Ivanovic for me.

Womens previews :
5pts E.Makarova to beat K.Pliskova Evens Boylesports
2.5pts E.Makarova to win 2-0 12/5 Boylesports
Makarova has played Pliskova twice. Both were on the hard courts and Makarova won both. One of the wins was actually here last year in straight sets. She also has alot more experience which I think will count here. Pliskova not been this far before in a big slam and I think when it matters, Makarova will take the points. I'm also taking a small bet on the 2-0 win as that was also the result in both head-2-head matches and could well be again if Makarova takes the first set.
3pts A.Beck -2.5 games to beat L.Siegemund Evens Paddypower
I'm going for this bet based on how well Beck is playing. I watched her against Timea and she looked very good and was hitting the ball very well. It didn't help that Timea was double faulting for fun but Beck really took her chances and I see her winning this and covering the handicap.
5pts A.Ivanovic to beat M.Keys 13/10 Bet365
I think they have this price wrong and it will soon come down to evens so I'm taking the value now. Ana is far more experienced and has looked the better player so far. Keys hasn't truly been tested yet and she will be with this match. 2-1 Ivanovic for me.

Womens previews :
5pts E.Makarova to beat K.Pliskova Evens Boylesports
2.5pts E.Makarova to win 2-0 12/5 Boylesports
Makarova has played Pliskova twice. Both were on the hard courts and Makarova won both. One of the wins was actually here last year in straight sets. She also has alot more experience which I think will count here. Pliskova not been this far before in a big slam and I think when it matters, Makarova will take the points. I'm also taking a small bet on the 2-0 win as that was also the result in both head-2-head matches and could well be again if Makarova takes the first set.
3pts A.Beck -2.5 games to beat L.Siegemund Evens Paddypower
I'm going for this bet based on how well Beck is playing. I watched her against Timea and she looked very good and was hitting the ball very well. It didn't help that Timea was double faulting for fun but Beck really took her chances and I see her winning this and covering the handicap.
5pts A.Ivanovic to beat M.Keys 13/10 Bet365
I think they have this price wrong and it will soon come down to evens so I'm taking the value now. Ana is far more experienced and has looked the better player so far. Keys hasn't truly been tested yet and she will be with this match. 2-1 Ivanovic for me.

One game away again from the handicap in the Isner match. Argh!! 2 bets won out of 5 ends a below average day and a day loss of 5pts 
Mens previews :
4pts D.Thiem -1.5 sets to beat D.Goffin Evens 888Sport
Thiem is in some good form as of late. He done well in the Brisbane event beating Cilic and now sees himself as a top 20 player. Both of these players are better on the clay really but I feel Thiem will fare better here. 3-1 Thiem
5pts Over 34.5 games Tsonga Vs Pierre Herbet 4/5 Skybet
Herbert can serve well. He has had to play 5 matches already to get to this stage and has dropped just 3 sets and beat decent opposition such as Andujar and Roger-Vasselin. He has served an average of 15 aces a match in the last three and so you'd expect that and with Tsongas low "return shot" percentage so far he'd take a few games here. Probably even a set as Tsonga rarely wins games easily. 
5pts T.Berdych -1.5 sets Vs Kyrgios 11/10 Paddypower
The crowd are always going to push Kyrgios on but I think in Berdych he will meet his match. They have never played eachother. I think berdych should get plenty of chances on the second serve and will also have lots of break points here. 3-1 Berdych.

Mens previews :
5pts G.Monfils -5.5 games to beat N.Mahut 4/5 Bet365
Head-to-head reads 3 matches all to Monfils. Last time out he won in straight sets and it wouldn't surprise me to see exactly the same here. I can't imagine Mahut getting more than one set and I think we will see atleast one set that ends 6-1/6-2 to Monfils so I'm going for the games handicap here. Monfils actually has a great chance of making the Quarter-Finals here. 
4pts J.Isner -5.5 games to beat M.Granollers Evens Skybet
I fancy Isner this tournament to do well and the draw hasn't disappointed. Lopez, Ferrer and Murray but first of all he has to beat Marcel. Granollers and Isner played back in 2008 and Isner won then in 3 sets. If he serves well he should win with games to spare.

good day and 5 out of 6 winners. Great to see Gavrilova win and in straight sets too. Missed out on the over 20 games to get a full house by 1 game but I'll take that for the outright win. Seppi, Herbet and Mladenovic also come in to end the day +22.5pts and +28pts for the Aus Open