Fader

Yes I did. But it was one of those bets I just took blindly as i was too tired to research. I believe that you are more up to date with the stats than myself. However I just believe that tipping most times requires us to use more tools than we care to have available, and also there always is that point in trying to analyze a tip where stats can sometimes become a hindrance. I tend to use stats, odds, and circumstance to reach most of my conclusions in  ways that it work for me. No question I agree you are spot on with the stats, but here I realise that I need to be logging into my "circumstance" instead as it just gives me a confident natural feeling of been right. Good luck either way!!!

Womens Quarter-Final previews : 
I'll be leaving Aggys match alone as I have her for the outright and I don't see too much value but I'll take 6pts S.Williams to beat M.Sharapova 2-0 4/6 Bet365
Serena's dominance of Sharapova is ridiculous. Played eachother 20 times. Serena has won 18 of those including winning the last 17 in a row and the last 3 on the hard courts in straight sets. I'd be amazed if Shara won this. Serena in 2.

Mens Quarter-Final Previews :
5pts R.Federer -6 games to beat T.Berdych 6/5 Bet36
Played eachother many times but Federer has won the last three on the hardcourts. He brushed aside Goffin with such ease and I think he will win this one 3-0/3-1 also. Either way atleast one of those sets again I believe will be a 6-2 job so I'm happy to test this handicap. Berdych shouldn't even be here in my eyes. Agut should of beat him. Especially that second set. Once it went 1-1 Berdych just took control. Prediction 6-4 6-3 6-4
2pts K.Nishikori to beat N.Djokovic 11/2 Bet365
I think I'll take a punt on Kei here. No doubt Djokovic is the big favourite and it's very unlikely Nishikori wins here but Novak doesn't look that great right now and although this could easily be a 6-1 6-2 6-1 job to Novak, it could also be a tight Kei win.. I'm blabbering... Nish to win. Come on Nish!!  I want a Nishikori Vs Raonic final!

Womens preview : 
4pts J.Konta to beat E.Makarova 6/4 Bet365
This one should be close you'd think. Konta looks strong and composed and the head-2-head reads one match and one win for Konta (albeit on the grass) and she won that one easy (6-2 6-4) you'd say that Makarova is obviously the better player and she has alot of weapons but if Konta can raise her game just alittle she can most certainly win this. 

Womens preview : 
4pts J.Konta to beat E.Makarova 6/4 Bet365
This one should be close you'd think. Konta looks strong and composed and the head-2-head reads one match and one win for Konta (albeit on the grass) and she won that one easy (6-2 6-4) you'd say that Makarova is obviously the better player and she has alot of weapons but if Konta can raise her game just alittle she can most certainly win this. 

3,5pts profit today then. Could of been so different. Few chokers but hey ho. +51.75pts on the open now. 
Mens previews :
3.75pts G.Monfils -5.5 games to beat A.Kuznetsov Evens Betfred
Monfils is going well so far. He has dispatched of everyone put him front of him with ease and I expect him to win 3-0/3-1 in this match. They have played before on the hardcourt not long ago in 2015 and Monfils won in straight sets and the crowd will be on his side too as he is a pure entertainer. 
5pts Over 43.5 games M.Raonic Vs S.Wawrinka 4/5 Skybet
Will stick to the games in this one as I already have the outright on Milos. Will be a close match in my opinion. Will be atleast 2 tie-breaks also in my opinion. You'd expect Wawrinka to grind it out however I hear he is under the weather and if his game isn't going on song he could lose this one. He normally wins the head-2-heads but lost the last on the hard (albeit a small event really) Id expect a 3-1 Wawrinka in my head at this point but I'm sticking with the games. Prediction 6-7 7-6 4-6 4-6

4 out of 5 winners then. Ivanovic a set and serving for 5-2 up  and then 3-1 up in the third set still loses 2-1. Brilliant. +11.50pts for the day. +48.25pts for the Open.
Mens previews :
4pts K.Nishikori -1.5 sets to beat Tsonga 6/4 Paddypower
I think it's a good match up for Nishikori this. They have played eachother 7 times and Nishikori has won 4 of those but more importantly is the fact he has won 4 out of the 5 hard court battles. His movement will be the key factor for me and his returning shots. I just hope if he gets through he can give Djokovic some problems.
4pts Over 36.5 games T.Berdych Vs Bautista-Agut Evens Ladbrokes
2pts Bautista-Agut to beat T.Berdych 
It wouldn't suprise me if Agut came close to winning this. They have played 3 hard court matches and Agut has won two of those including the last one in 2014. He has played really well this week and produced abit of a suprise not only beating Cilic but in straight sets. He looks to be serving really well and I think the difference between him and Kyrgios will be the solidarity of the serve.
3pts R.Federer -7.5 to beat D.Goffin 4/6 Bet365
I dont see Goffin giving Federer any problems atall. Federer beat Goffin 6-2 6-2 last time they played on the outdoor hard. He has only dropped one set to Dimitrov and Goffin has really struggled to get here in my eyes. I see atleast one of these sets being a 6-1/6-2 job so if it's 3-0 and even one set is like that you'd expect this to be covered.

Womens Preview :
2.5pts B.Bencic to beat M.Sharapova 12/5 Bet365
This will be Sharas first big test. Bencic at such a young age will in my eyes be world number 1 one day. Davis took a set from Shara and Bencic can beat her. They have never met and it should be a close match really. Maybe the age factor will come into it, Belinda is 10 years younger than Shara. If she holds her nerve she can win here. Come on Bencic.
4pts D.Gavrilova to beat Suarez Navarro 11/10 Skybet
Will go with the Aussie here. I think Navarro has had it easy so far (which is why i backed her at silly prices) no i don't think she can win the tournament but if she raised her game to her highest level she could go far and has shown some fantastic form. Gavrilova is doing that right now..playing at her highest level and that and the crowd will help her win this in my opinion. Winner plays Aggy 

Womens Preview :
2.5pts B.Bencic to beat M.Sharapova 12/5 Bet365
This will be Sharas first big test. Bencic at such a young age will in my eyes be world number 1 one day. Davis took a set from Shara and Bencic can beat her. They have never met and it should be a close match really. Maybe the age factor will come into it, Belinda is 10 years younger than Shara. If she holds her nerve she can win here. Come on Bencic.
4pts D.Gavrilova to beat Suarez Navarro 11/10 Skybet
Will go with the Aussie here. I think Navarro has had it easy so far (which is why i backed her at silly prices) no i don't think she can win the tournament but if she raised her game to her highest level she could go far and has shown some fantastic form. Gavrilova is doing that right now..playing at her highest level and that and the crowd will help her win this in my opinion. Winner plays Aggy 

4 out of 5 winners then. Ivanovic a set and serving for 5-2 up  and then 3-1 up in the third set still loses 2-1. Brilliant. +11.50pts for the day. +48.25pts for the Open.
Mens previews :
4pts K.Nishikori -1.5 sets to beat Tsonga 6/4 Paddypower
I think it's a good match up for Nishikori this. They have played eachother 7 times and Nishikori has won 4 of those but more importantly is the fact he has won 4 out of the 5 hard court battles. His movement will be the key factor for me and his returning shots. I just hope if he gets through he can give Djokovic some problems.
4pts Over 36.5 games T.Berdych Vs Bautista-Agut Evens Ladbrokes
2pts Bautista-Agut to beat T.Berdych 
It wouldn't suprise me if Agut came close to winning this. They have played 3 hard court matches and Agut has won two of those including the last one in 2014. He has played really well this week and produced abit of a suprise not only beating Cilic but in straight sets. He looks to be serving really well and I think the difference between him and Kyrgios will be the solidarity of the serve.
3pts R.Federer -7.5 to beat D.Goffin 4/6 Bet365
I dont see Goffin giving Federer any problems atall. Federer beat Goffin 6-2 6-2 last time they played on the outdoor hard. He has only dropped one set to Dimitrov and Goffin has really struggled to get here in my eyes. I see atleast one of these sets being a 6-1/6-2 job so if it's 3-0 and even one set is like that you'd expect this to be covered.

Womens previews :
5pts E.Makarova to beat K.Pliskova Evens Boylesports
2.5pts E.Makarova to win 2-0 12/5 Boylesports
Makarova has played Pliskova twice. Both were on the hard courts and Makarova won both. One of the wins was actually here last year in straight sets. She also has alot more experience which I think will count here. Pliskova not been this far before in a big slam and I think when it matters, Makarova will take the points. I'm also taking a small bet on the 2-0 win as that was also the result in both head-2-head matches and could well be again if Makarova takes the first set.
3pts A.Beck -2.5 games to beat L.Siegemund Evens Paddypower
I'm going for this bet based on how well Beck is playing. I watched her against Timea and she looked very good and was hitting the ball very well. It didn't help that Timea was double faulting for fun but Beck really took her chances and I see her winning this and covering the handicap.
5pts A.Ivanovic to beat M.Keys 13/10 Bet365
I think they have this price wrong and it will soon come down to evens so I'm taking the value now. Ana is far more experienced and has looked the better player so far. Keys hasn't truly been tested yet and she will be with this match. 2-1 Ivanovic for me.

Womens previews :
5pts E.Makarova to beat K.Pliskova Evens Boylesports
2.5pts E.Makarova to win 2-0 12/5 Boylesports
Makarova has played Pliskova twice. Both were on the hard courts and Makarova won both. One of the wins was actually here last year in straight sets. She also has alot more experience which I think will count here. Pliskova not been this far before in a big slam and I think when it matters, Makarova will take the points. I'm also taking a small bet on the 2-0 win as that was also the result in both head-2-head matches and could well be again if Makarova takes the first set.
3pts A.Beck -2.5 games to beat L.Siegemund Evens Paddypower
I'm going for this bet based on how well Beck is playing. I watched her against Timea and she looked very good and was hitting the ball very well. It didn't help that Timea was double faulting for fun but Beck really took her chances and I see her winning this and covering the handicap.
5pts A.Ivanovic to beat M.Keys 13/10 Bet365
I think they have this price wrong and it will soon come down to evens so I'm taking the value now. Ana is far more experienced and has looked the better player so far. Keys hasn't truly been tested yet and she will be with this match. 2-1 Ivanovic for me.

Womens previews :
5pts E.Makarova to beat K.Pliskova Evens Boylesports
2.5pts E.Makarova to win 2-0 12/5 Boylesports
Makarova has played Pliskova twice. Both were on the hard courts and Makarova won both. One of the wins was actually here last year in straight sets. She also has alot more experience which I think will count here. Pliskova not been this far before in a big slam and I think when it matters, Makarova will take the points. I'm also taking a small bet on the 2-0 win as that was also the result in both head-2-head matches and could well be again if Makarova takes the first set.
3pts A.Beck -2.5 games to beat L.Siegemund Evens Paddypower
I'm going for this bet based on how well Beck is playing. I watched her against Timea and she looked very good and was hitting the ball very well. It didn't help that Timea was double faulting for fun but Beck really took her chances and I see her winning this and covering the handicap.
5pts A.Ivanovic to beat M.Keys 13/10 Bet365
I think they have this price wrong and it will soon come down to evens so I'm taking the value now. Ana is far more experienced and has looked the better player so far. Keys hasn't truly been tested yet and she will be with this match. 2-1 Ivanovic for me.

One game away again from the handicap in the Isner match. Argh!! 2 bets won out of 5 ends a below average day and a day loss of 5pts 
Mens previews :
4pts D.Thiem -1.5 sets to beat D.Goffin Evens 888Sport
Thiem is in some good form as of late. He done well in the Brisbane event beating Cilic and now sees himself as a top 20 player. Both of these players are better on the clay really but I feel Thiem will fare better here. 3-1 Thiem
5pts Over 34.5 games Tsonga Vs Pierre Herbet 4/5 Skybet
Herbert can serve well. He has had to play 5 matches already to get to this stage and has dropped just 3 sets and beat decent opposition such as Andujar and Roger-Vasselin. He has served an average of 15 aces a match in the last three and so you'd expect that and with Tsongas low "return shot" percentage so far he'd take a few games here. Probably even a set as Tsonga rarely wins games easily. 
5pts T.Berdych -1.5 sets Vs Kyrgios 11/10 Paddypower
The crowd are always going to push Kyrgios on but I think in Berdych he will meet his match. They have never played eachother. I think berdych should get plenty of chances on the second serve and will also have lots of break points here. 3-1 Berdych.

Mens previews :
5pts G.Monfils -5.5 games to beat N.Mahut 4/5 Bet365
Head-to-head reads 3 matches all to Monfils. Last time out he won in straight sets and it wouldn't surprise me to see exactly the same here. I can't imagine Mahut getting more than one set and I think we will see atleast one set that ends 6-1/6-2 to Monfils so I'm going for the games handicap here. Monfils actually has a great chance of making the Quarter-Finals here. 
4pts J.Isner -5.5 games to beat M.Granollers Evens Skybet
I fancy Isner this tournament to do well and the draw hasn't disappointed. Lopez, Ferrer and Murray but first of all he has to beat Marcel. Granollers and Isner played back in 2008 and Isner won then in 3 sets. If he serves well he should win with games to spare.

good day and 5 out of 6 winners. Great to see Gavrilova win and in straight sets too. Missed out on the over 20 games to get a full house by 1 game but I'll take that for the outright win. Seppi, Herbet and Mladenovic also come in to end the day +22.5pts and +28pts for the Aus Open
 

It beat an accy I was on so I'm still sore about it.  Should've done it with bet365 then. That does surprise me tho, I thought they were really switched on.
Anyway, more opportunities to come. I like of your Gavrilova selection for tonight. PK can be a bit erratic.

Thanks Czech for replying to reckless. 

Mens previews :
5pts Seppi -4.5 games to beat D.Kudla Evens Bet365
Think Seppi should win this in 3 or 4 sets. Not faced eachother before but Seppi tends to do well here. Last year he was 2-0 up in sets against Krygios to get to the Quarter-finals and lost 8-6 in the fifth set. Along the way he beat Federer. He had a good year really on the hard and only went out of the US Open to Djokovic taking him to a couple of 7-5 sets. His worse loss really was in a small tournament where he lost to Pospisil but even then Pospisil was ranked in the top 55. Kudla doesn't really tend to beat the better players and last year his best win was against Sock. He went out in his first round in both the Aus Open (Vs Lopez fair enough) and also in the US Open (should be beating the likes of Melzer) so all in all I'd fancy Seppi for the win and would suggest a close first set with a few games in hand in the following
5pts Pierre Herbert -4.5 games to beat N.Rubin 4/5 WillHill
Played alot of doubles tennis last year but when he has competed for singles he has done well. Got to a final of a Winston Salem event where he has beaten the likes of Steve Johnson, Baghdatis and Bedene. He can beat players above his calibre and I see him winning this 3-0/3-1. He serves well and I see him being hard to break
 

It depends on the bookie, some void retirements and some don't for the match markets. Verdasco was around 8.50.

Ivo Karlovic injured and retiring means that the bet on him to win 3-0 was a void and Cuevas did the business so good first day 1 in 1. Few more for Tuesday :
4pts S.Johnson (-2.5 games) to beat A.Bedene Evens Bet365
Johnson 21 wins/15 losses last year on the hard courts and currently at his highest ranking of 32. Got to the Third round last year of this event going out to Nishikori 3-1. Bedene 49th in rankings. Also close to best (was 45th) Bedene retired from his last match less than a week ago against Querrey with a leg injury. He also withdrew from the doubles match he was set to play. You'd say Bedene has the better form recently but Johnson rarely loses against Opponents below his ranking. Last year he beat the likes of Tsonga, Tomic and Dimitrov and his losses were against quality opposition like Anderson, Nishikori and Berdych. Bedene, although capable (he beat Lopez & Agut) last year, he is also capable of losing to some rubbish such as 256th Novikov and 444th Jasika.

5pts D.Young (-3.5 games) to beat S.Giraldo 4/5 Skybet
2pts D.Young to beat S.Giraldo 3-0 13/5 Boylesports
Giraldo for me isn't the player on the hard court as he is on the clay. His results on it over the last year or so shows that IMO. Played 17 since Jan last year on the hard and won 7 of those but none of those wins were of a calibre player above himself( Darcis 66th retired) infact he struggled in 3 sets to a player ranked 1453th. Donald Young, ranked 47th is a very capable player who beat the likes of Berdych, Tomic, and Chardy last year. He also got to the last 16 of the US Open. I'm going for Young to win and small bet on the whitewash.

3pts G.Monfils to beat Sugita 3-0 5/6 Bet365
You would of thought Monfils would be able to come out of with without much sweat. Sugita ranked 124th doesn't generally meet players of Monfils quality and Monfils hardly ever loses to players inferior to him. Monfils will 100% win this and I really cannot see Sugita getting a set.

5pts V.Lepchenko (-1.5 games) to beat Tsurenko 4/5 Bet365
These two met in the US Open last year and Lepchenko won in straight sets (76-62) they also played in this event 2 years ago in the last 128 and again Lepchenko won this time in 3 sets. Tsurenko is a good player but she is also an unpredictable one and I think Lepchenko is a far more solid pick here.

3pts V.Williams to beat J.Konta 2-0 Evens Bet365
I fancy Venus to do well in this tournament and I think she will get off to the perfect start beating Konta 2-0. They played eachother on this surface not too long ago and Venus won it albeit in 3 sets but I think the size of the tournament for Venus and the fact she normally does well in the big hardcourt slams (QF exit to Serena US)(QF exit to Keys AUS) will help her through.

5.5pts P. Cuevas - 3.5 games to beat Nishioka 10/11 paddypower 
I'd fancy Cuevas to win this by 3-0/3-1 personally so I'm surprised by the odds.  Never played each other and in such a big slam I'd expect cuevas to take control 

Onto the womens side of things and I think it could be wide open. I'm not sure Serena is fully fit and it really lets in Sharapova when they meet. But again I am going to be going for value here and although Sharapova is value at 10/1 it's the bigger prices in form I'm taking. Important to mention I like the look of Muguruza this year but 14/1 is a silly price. Id rather Shara at 10/1 then Muguruza at 14/1. Overkill 
2pts A.Radwanska to win the Australian Open 22/1 BetVictor
Aggy is on some hot form right now. She has won the last three tournaments in a row that she has contested in including not dropping a set in Shenzhen and beating the likes of Kvitova, Halep and Muguruza, I like her draw too, she will have a tough game against Bouchard but Id fancy her to get through that. She would face Puig and Vinci in the following rounds and I think again Puig could be a hard match-up but expect her to come through it. Navarro is a big underdog for me this tournament and she will have a scrap in that one but Id fancy her. 
2pts B.Bencic to win Australian Open 25/1 Paddypower
I'm not crazy about the price but she is capable of beating anyone on her day and that's always dangerous. My only worry is she seems to have some injury concerns. She retired from the game at Wuhan and then at Beijing end of last year and then again at Sydney she retired so something is wrong perhaps? when she is feeling fine though she has beaten the best and if you look at the Canadian she was unreal. She beat Bouchard, Wozniacki, Ivanovic, Lisicki, Halep and Serena. Anyone with that ability is dangerous.
1pt V.Williams to win Australian Open 66/1 Paddypower
1pt Suarez Navarro to win Austrlian Open 150/1 Paddypower
Nice to follow some silly prices. Navarro is on some hot form right now so I expect her to go quite deep here before the nerves no doubt get to her. Venus is always going to perform well and I expect her to go deep also. 
 

Draw is up. I'm going to add a few more outrights. Djokovic/Murray looks a likely final but I'm taking some big value punts
1pt K.Nishikori to win the Australian Open 66/1 BoyleSports
Tough ask for him to beat Djokovic but I do think he will make the quarter finals so I do think that 66/1 is good value for him moving on from there. He got to the Quarter Finals last year before going out to Stan Wawrinka. He will need to find Djokovic on a low day if he were to get that far but he has beaten him in the past.
1pt J.Isner to win the Australian Open 250/1 Boylesports
The big serving yank can go well in this tournament and if he serves well he is hard to stop. Last year he got to the Third round before going out to Muller surprisingly but his recent form suggests he is playing well. Getting to the final of a couple of events at the end of last year and a win against Federer the question will remain can he beat Murray when they meet? his serving will be everything for him because Murray is one of the best returners in the game.
 

draw is on Friday so the price may shorten. 
2.5pts E/W M.Raonic to win the Australian Open 50/1 William Hill
crazy price if you ask me. Raonic has just won the Brisbane event and only lost one set (a tie break to Dodig in Round 1) along the way he beat Tomic and then Federer in the final both in straight sets. He has looked in good form for a while now and will want to better his QF spot last year. This is his best surface and most likely if he is going to win anything so the 50/1 on offer is too good to turn down. Hoping for a nice draw.

draw is on Friday so the price may shorten. 
2.5pts E/W M.Raonic to win the Australian Open 50/1 William Hill
crazy price if you ask me. Raonic has just won the Brisbane event and only lost one set (a tie break to Dodig in Round 1) along the way he beat Tomic and then Federer in the final both in straight sets. He has looked in good form for a while now and will want to better his QF spot last year. This is his best surface and most likely if he is going to win anything so the 50/1 on offer is too good to turn down. Hoping for a nice draw.