yogg

Simona Halep vs Sloane Stephens 
Over 21.5 games 10/11 paddy power
Halep to win and Tie break in any set 4/1 paddy power
This is a match where Halep is favourite and deservedly so as she has probably played the best tennis throughout the tournament. But her opponent is a tricky customer who always make it difficult for them to play their own game and is a very smart player. Will we see Halep feel the pressure of trying to win a Grand slam as i can see her getting nervous at the crucial moments. So three sets is a possibility 
 
 
Mens Doubles Final
Pierre Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut vs Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic
Herbert and Mahut to win the match 4/5 paddy power
Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power
Well the French crowd will get behind Herbert and Mahut and I feel that they will do enough to win as they are very good doubles team and have more experience at this level 

I was at Surbiton on Wednesday and Evans was truly awful. (I saw the whole match)
I really believed Melzer was going to beat him and I lost a tidy sum.
anyway, onwards and upwards.
thanks for the tip and good luck with it.

Fernandez L. A. - Gauff C. (1.52 @ Marathon)
Tseng C. H. - Korda S. (1.81 @ Marathon)
Double @ 2.75 I'll have a piece of that four-leaf as I had a nice touch yesterday (5.10) on the Nadal correct score market (thanks again to CP).
starts in under an hour.
good luck all 

I want Halep to win though! 

It's good to see both Seb Korda and Cori Gauff in the RG junior semis, both playing today and I think both will reach the junior final.

Do you think that Cecchinato to might be a bit tired mentally and emotionally after that epic match against Djokovic. And that match must have  taken a lot out of him as Thiem has had plenty of rest and is playing great tennis 
 
My selections are
Marco Cecchinato vs Dominic Thiem
Over 31.5 games 8/11 paddy power
I can't believe this bet exists as i was expecting that Thiem would have a tougher match. But it seems that the bookies think that it will be easier match for the favourite even though he has just beaten two top players in the previous rounds. I think that there will be at least one tie break in the match as the first set he will he just play his own game. But the next two won't be as close 
 
Rafael Nadal vs Juan Martin Del Potro
Over 33.5 games 4/5 paddy power
Why is going on with the bookies, they don't think this match will be close. But his opponent is playing well and is capable of winning a set 
 

I actually had a deeper look into Cecchinato as a player and there is an interesting story about him being involved with betting which I believe everyone knows. I´ve watched the final tie-break against Nole again and I was impressed by how well this guy kept his nerve. He won a tournament on the road to Roland Garros and to be honest, I believe the price for this guy to get through is too high given the circumstances and I think it would be a good bet backing him and then cashing out when the price drops to 3.50 or under if it does. However, this would have been better when the market first set the prices. I saw it started trading at odds 8.00.
All of this taken into account, my pick will be the following : 
D. Thiem - M. Cecchinato 
Over 3,5 sets at odds 2.10
The +2.5 sets handicap on the italian was trading at 1.91 and as I don´t see any chance of this going 3-0 for the underdog, I am going to play Over 3,5 sets at very appealing odds.
My main points on this are 
Marco is playing the best tennis of his life knocking out two top 10 players, even if Nole is not really at his best.  He showed some nerve by recovering break handicaps and when the points got more important, he performed. The pressure is on Thiem as he is the big favourite here. Marco already overachieved for his status.  As it happens very often with these players, they don´t get to live more than once an experience like this. Coming after the big scandal he went through I see Cecchinato realising this is an opportunity that comes once in a lifetime (Slim Shady ) H2H 1-1 The italian won once on clay in a much lower ranked tournament. However, it does set the bar for him in terms of having the mental advantage of winning against Thiem. The time Cecchinato lost, he still got a set out of Thiem. The austrian tends to drop his level after getting ahead. He did it almost on every occasion in Lyon and he did it here in Paris.  This is my bet for tomorrow and I will be backing Cecchinato tomorrow in-live betting if he drops the first set, aiming to cash out in the second or third. Basically I will wait for the odds to reach 12.00-13.00 and get a position then, after which I will try to cash it in if the odds get around 3.50 - 4.00. 
 
All the best guys. 

Going over both matches again I will be skipping Nadal - Del Potro and my only pick for tomorrow will be Cecchinatto +2.5 sets. I expect even odds. I´ll make my case tomorrow after getting a bit more insight from RG. 
 

personally, I think both matches will be won by the favourites 3-0 

Going over means thinking about, makes sense to me?

Hi and welcome to PL @Badham11!
As for DelPo, everything is pointing towards his win, from his recent performances to the way Cilic played against Fognini. I'm slightly worried about DelPo's fitness though, Cilic is certainly going to test him more than Isner/Ramos/Mahut.
@Sm0k3rZ I can't make a call on that, too random. Depends on who will be able to find the court with the bigger shots, I pretty much agree with everything that's been said here and the odds reflect those thoughts I guess. Sharapova/Pliskova doesn't really count, Muguruza has been better so far, but this match-up is somewhat random by nature. If pushed, I'd back Muguruza.

A parlay for me today. 
S. Halep - G. Muguruza 
Pick - Simona Halep to win the match at odds 2.00
The highlight of the tournament here today. No. 1 Ranking and RG final on the table. H2H the spaniard leads 3-1 but the only meeting on clay was won by Halep in Stuttgart in a three setter. A bit concerning is SImona´s last match against Muguruza which ended with the Romanian winning just one game. 
Making the case for Halep here, I believe that one of the reasons she will have a slight edge today is exactly that last H2H against Muguruza. It was then, that her game started changing after having a fallout with her coach Darren Cahill. It was after that loss that Halep became no. 1 and started playing better. I believe she has the mental to overcome the Spaniard now. 
The conditions on Chatrier are quite dry today, I am looking right now at Nadal´s match and I believe the conditions will slightly favour Simona´s game today. After her comeback against Kerber, she pointed to her head saying it was her mental strength that won the match. I remember Willander saying the day before the game that Halep´s biggest problem is that you can tell after 15 minutes if she´s in the game and will win it or not. Well, the specialist was mistaken this time and I believe Halep is set to win the tournament, she is very determined and she has the patience to slowly take apart Muguruza´s game. 
M. Keys - S. Stepehens 
Pick - S. Stephens to win at odds 1.57
I expect Stephens to take advantage of the draw she´s had and play the final here. We can say the same about M. Keys who benefited and took fulll advantage of her draw so far. 
Not much to say about Keys as she is a bit of a one dimensional player and I believe that Stephens has too much variety on her game for Keys. H2H is favourable to Stephens in a dominant fashion. This is the first meeting on clay and I believe here Stephens has the edge even more than on hard courts. If Madison doesn´t get her first serve at least to 65%, she is doomed in my opinion. Go with Stephens to be in the final.
Total odds - 3,14
 

D.Thiem/M.Cecchinato - No Tie-Break Played at 1.72 with Bet365
Not a bad price imo. Cecchinato has played a lot of tie-breaks here already, even contesting two against Djokovic, but it's hard not to have the feeling that this is going to be swift and easy for Thiem - and, if it isn't, I'd expect to see him drop a set with a break, like he did against Nishikori, just losing focus at a certain point. Importantly, Thiem has been returning excellently so far against opposition with good serves. It's not a lock or anything, but it's the only bet that I like for tomorrow. Nadal should be 3-1 or 3-0, Del Potro was hardly good today, Cilic was just awful.

Melzer J. - Evans D. 
playing Friday 08/06/18
I watched both these play yesterday and imo Dan hasn't a prayer against Jurgen.
Jurgen Melzer to win 2-0 @ 5.00 with William Hill
with a saver on Jurgen Melzer to win @ 2.75 with William Hill
good luck all 

Shame about the rain, Diego could've even won yesterday. The rain did give @yogg a nice winner though, so congrats!

I think that @mihaiv93 has made some very fine comments and losing streaks of three are nothing to be ashamed of, but let's leave it at that and focus on the tennis side of things from now on.

Garbine Muguruza v Maria Sharapova
Pick: Muguruza to win @ 1.75.
I was very impressed with Muguruza's demolition of Stosur. When Muguruza is in the zone, few, if any, can beat her. Sharapova, of course, was also impressive against Pliskova, but from what I recall of that game, Pliskova wasn't near her best tennis.
Muguruza hasn't won against Sharapova, but the last match was in 2014 and Muguruza has made large improvements to her game since then, so I am willing to not factor in the head to head here.

1 pick for ATP Challenger Poznan:
HALYS-5.5 GAMES OVER CORNEA @ 1.5 betfair sportsbook
Halys with a lot of good clay court matches. Cornea is a wild-card player with no real results on ATP level for years.

 

Diego Schwartzman Total Games - Over 9.00 at 1.90 with Marathonbet
Looks like a good line to me given what I saw yesterday and given how well Diego fought against Nadal in both Madrid and Melbourne. Marterer was able to stay in quite a few rallies with Nadal yesterday and Diego is a step up in that regard, so I reckon that he's going to give his rival a tough time in at least two sets. The fight was real against Anderson, but the serve will now be off the table and that should give him heart. And, most importantly, Diego does have a good enough backhand to absorb Nadal's forehand. I can't see Nadal losing unless it gets really rainy and the match gets affected by delays, but there's every chance that he's going to lose nine games or more.

just back from Surbiton after watching the Challenger series there.
saw Jurgen Melzer, Dan Evans and De Minaur all win.
Melzer's still got it, pure quality unlike Evans who was rubbish today.
some good ladies matches too.
a great day out, makes you appreciate how amazing the top players are.

just back from Surbiton after watching the Challenger series there.
saw Jurgen Melzer, Dan Evans and De Minaur all win.
Melzer's still got it, pure quality unlike Evans who was rubbish today.
some good ladies matches too.
a great day out, makes you appreciate how amazing the top players are.

Going with this as well. Still haven't decided on Schwartzmann-Anderson match...perhaps overs...

HALEP VS MERTENS
No 1 vs No 16 with the latter having the better record this year on clay at 14-1 compared to 11-3. The H2H record stands at 1-0 which Halap won this year in Madrid in a much awaited match that never came to fruition which saw Mertens lose in two easy sets of 6-0 6-3. I definately feel it would be much more competitive this time around considering that Mertens is fitter and on a dangerous healthy run. Both are mentally tough so I expect a good battle that should run over 19.5 games total into possibly a 3 set battle. Verdict: Over 19.5 games 8/11