Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **
Check Out Our Euro 2024 Forum!

Valiant Thor

Regular Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,023

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    15

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Valiant Thor

    Racehorse Syndicates

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor

    On 2/6/2020 at 10:57 AM, Valiant Thor said:

     

    Jaboticaba.JPG.9b0f1666808250a1c0802d021fd308d1.JPG  

    Jaboticaba has been declared to run in the following race:

    Thursday 12/3/2020
    1.45 Doncaster :hope

    3RD

    •  

    image.png.f366fd298b03d832673d33587426216a.png

    Gilka has been declared to run in the following race:

    Thursday 12/3/2020

    Doncaster 2.25 :hope

    6th

     

    Competition Going Forward

    in NAP of the Day Competition

    Posted

    @BillyHills

    The same principles apply whether you trying to win the comp or get the highest S/R prize .(though much harder for the S/R prize)

    Using table 1 as an example (SR + 10 profit)

    Ave winning SR 50% ish

    Ave winning Profit 25 ish

    Say you played  30 days in a month you'd need 15 winners (30*50% = 15)...SR sorted

    So with 15 winners you would need to make a 55pt return (30 staked + 25 profit)...profit sorted

    Therefore similar to the player who sits there playing 66/1 shots every day until the law of probability steps in and he is then reasonable sure to win the prize

    the other players option would be to play the 55/15 (3.66 or 11/4 nearest highest odds ) daily until the law of probability steps in and they win the S/R comp ( using Cumulative Binomdist in excel gives approx 1% probability of getting 15 correct with odds of 11/4 or greater,so much harder to win :ok )

    Or if player 1 hits his 80/1 shot early he could even revert to 11/4 shots for the rest of the comp with the possibility of winning both :eek (greed is good as Mr Gekko says)

     

×
×
  • Create New...